1929 vs 2025: Andrew Ross Sorkin on Crashes, Bubbles & Lessons Learned

Citing Niall Ferguson's framework on debt-service and defense-spending thresholds, the US could hit an 'end of empire' inflection point around 2040 if current fiscal trends continue.

“I sort of look at the Neil Ferguson view of the world which maybe lines up pretty directly with uh with Gallia which is that when you get uh you know GDP you start to look at like defense spending as a percentage of GDP there is this point at which at least historically you have like a real problem um and that sort of has set it created the end of the empire. I think that happens in his view of the world in like 19 in 2040 so maybe there's still time to turn it around.” View on YouTube

If US auto tariffs/protectionism aimed at excluding Chinese automakers like BYD continue, within 10 years Americans will pay more for less technologically capable cars than those available in Europe or Asia.

“if we do this, which we are, we will probably spend more to buy less technologically capable cars 10 years from now than the next time we all, you know, if you go on vacation to Europe or Asia and get in the back of one of these other cars.” View on YouTube