Did they call it?
Every prediction made on the All-In Podcast, checked against what actually happened.
62.5% accuracy sitewide · 1013 right (62.5%) · 609 wrong (37.5%) out of 1622 resolved (3447 total qualifying predictions) See the full leaderboard →
Host Accuracy
Percentage of resolved predictions (right vs. wrong).
| Right | 139 (59.9%) |
| Wrong | 93 (40.1%) |
| Right | 282 (56.7%) |
| Wrong | 215 (43.3%) |
| Right | 295 (66.4%) |
| Wrong | 149 (33.6%) |
| Right | 177 (66.8%) |
| Wrong | 88 (33.2%) |
Topic Index
Jump to a topic. Counts reflect qualifying host predictions.
Guest Predictions
Non-host speakers with at least one confidently-attributed prediction. See all guests →
The Big Ones
Browse the full ledger →A hand-picked reel of the show's highest-stakes calls that came back right.
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the outcome of the national presidential result will not be altered or determined by voter or election fraud; any detected fraud will be too small in scale to change the Electoral College winner.
Within a few months of this November 2023 episode, Sam Altman will consolidate effective control over OpenAI, leveraging strong employee loyalty to obtain essentially all governance and structural changes he seeks.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, which was around $2–3 trillion in October 2021, will grow over time to roughly $6 trillion and then to roughly $10 trillion.
Anthropic will easily reach its internal forecast of $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of the year, up from about $10 billion at the start of the year and over $70 billion mid-year.
In 2026, roughly 40 of the approximately 100 currently-protested US data center projects (about 7 gigawatts) will end up cancelled, removing about $70 billion a year of potential revenue on top of the $50 billion already lost in 2025.
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the state of Nevada will be won by the Republican presidential candidate (i.e., will vote Republican in the Electoral College).
Recently Settled
Browse the full ledger →xAI's Grok 4.7, a larger and significantly more capable model than Grok 4.6, will launch within a few weeks of this episode (late July/August 2026).
New AI efficiency techniques will soon be demonstrated that cut token consumption by roughly 50-75% for the same task without loss of capability.
Despite no current White House decision, the US government will eventually move to formally ban (Chinese) open-source AI models, with current rhetoric about guardrails laying the groundwork for that action.
Anthropic will easily reach its internal forecast of $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of the year, up from about $10 billion at the start of the year and over $70 billion mid-year.
OpenAI will exit the year with roughly $75 billion in annualized run-rate revenue, above its earlier internal target of about $60 billion, driven by a recent growth reacceleration (e.g., Codex).
Cheap open-source model competition (e.g., Kimi K3, GLM) will cause margin compression that derails or significantly slows down the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs.
This Episode's Calls
View full episode →Every qualifying prediction from the latest episode, Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine.