E155: In conversation with Tucker Carlson, plus OpenAI chaos explained

At some point in the near future (described as "very soon" relative to late 2023), public debate in the United States will shift away from culture-war issues such as identity politics and will revert to focusing primarily on core material and geopolitical concerns (population, resources like water and energy, and management of relations with other countries).

“my friend was saying, because he's really smart. He's like, yeah, but the good news is this can't last because it's just too stupid. And at some point very soon, the country is going to revert to the place that all countries begin, which is in a conversation about things that matter”

The United States will experience a significant economic crisis in the future (after December 2023). Given current low levels of national cohesion, that crisis will produce severe social instability that Tucker Carlson characterizes as "very scary."

“If we don't have anything that ties us together when that day comes, and you know what I mean? When the economic crisis comes because it's coming, like, what's that going to look like? It's going to be very scary.”

Joe Biden will not ultimately be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee in the 2024 U.S. election; instead, he will be replaced by another candidate before the Democratic National Convention.

“I don't think Biden can be the nominee. His only point was to, you know, stop Bernie Sanders, basically. And he's outlived his usefulness. So I think he'll be I'm pretty sure he'll be replaced.”

Nikki Haley has effectively no realistic chance of winning the U.S. presidency in a free and fair national election (i.e., she will not win the 2024 general election for president, even if nominated).

“if you get to a place where you think that Nikki Haley has a shot of getting elected in a free and fair election, like you have no idea what's going on in your own country.”

Gavin Newsom will become the Democratic Party's presidential nominee for the 2024 U.S. election, replacing Joe Biden.

“It's Gavin Gavin. It's Gavin for sure.”

If X (Twitter) remains largely free of mass censorship for the 12 months following this December 2023 conversation, the United States will have a "real" (i.e., meaningfully open and competitive) presidential election in 2024; however, powerful interests opposed to this outcome will attempt within that same 12‑month period to constrain or shut down X as a free-speech platform.

“I think this election, if that platform stays free for the next 12 months, you know, I think we have a shot at at least of a real election. But if it does, and I think they're going to do whatever they can to shut it down.”

By the end of February 2024, Tucker Carlson will travel to Dubai and record interviews there with multiple heads of state, as part of an ongoing expansion of his show's international coverage.

“we're going to continue to cover the rest of the world. I'm going over to Dubai in February and interviewing a bunch of heads of state over.”

Tucker Carlson's post-Fox media venture will adopt a business model that includes (a) a paid subscription component hosted on TuckerCarlson.com and (b) advertising sales against his content on both X (Twitter) and his own site, implemented going forward from late 2023.

“You've got to have a subscription component to it. And of course we're selling ads against our content. Um, and we'll be doing that on X and on Tucker Carlson. Com we'll be hosting the, the subscription part of it.”

Following this early-December 2023 recording, there will soon be at least one additional significant development (an "epilogue") in the OpenAI/Sam Altman governance saga beyond Altman’s initial firing and reinstatement.

“I think the epilogue is about to drop”

As of early December 2023, the OpenAI–Sam Altman leadership crisis will see further major twists or structural changes (e.g., in governance, ownership, or leadership) beyond Altman’s reinstatement; the situation will not be fully resolved in the immediate term.

“I think we're still in the second act here. I don't think this is over by a long shot.”

OpenAI’s approximately $86 billion valuation will be maintained and the planned secondary share sale at that valuation will successfully occur.

“So I think this valuation is going to hold. I think the secondary is going to happen.”

Within a few months of this November 2023 episode, Sam Altman will consolidate effective control over OpenAI, leveraging strong employee loyalty to obtain essentially all governance and structural changes he seeks.

“I think that I just think that what's going to happen in the next few months is that Sam will consolidate his control, because he's proven that he has the total loyalty of the troops, and they're behind him, and there's no choice. So why won't he get everything he wants?”

Following his November 2023 reinstatement, Sam Altman will not be fired again by the OpenAI board, and will retain de facto total control over the company going forward.

“I think the conclusion here is it's sort of a foregone conclusion, which is the board can never fire Sam again. I mean, they're not going to go through that again. Therefore he has total control.”

Subsequent media and other investigations into Sam Altman and OpenAI will uncover additional previously unknown information and controversies that will enter the public narrative about the company.

“so I think there's a lot of investigators digging around now trying to figure out all the backstory... So this will reveal all sorts of new threads that'll start to become part of the narrative.”

Further concrete details about the reasons and internal chaos behind Sam Altman’s brief firing from OpenAI will eventually become public.

“I just think that this stuff is too juicy and too interesting for the details to not come out.”

Information about the internal decisions and side deals around Sam Altman’s firing and reinstatement at OpenAI will emerge through multiple leaks over time.

“it is just going to come out and leak after leak after leak.”

The OpenAI board’s obligation to determine when AGI is reached and potentially shut down the commercial business will eventually become the subject of formal litigation, with OpenAI board members at the center of the legal and financial liability.

“when that's litigated, not if when that's litigated. It is that board that will be at the center of dealing with that financial responsibility and liability.”

Sam Altman will appear as a guest on a future episode of the All-In Podcast within a few weeks of this December 1, 2023 episode.

“Well Sam will be on the pod in the coming weeks. I think I've been texting with him, so I think if Sam.”