David Sacks

If California's Billionaire Tax Act (BTA) makes the ballot and passes, it will trigger a fiscal 'death spiral' in California and similar high-tax states.

“And by the way, we're about to light the spark, which is the billionaire tax act. Once the BTA, if it gets on the ballot and gets passed, it lights the spark on the death spiral of these states.” View on YouTube

The 2028 US election will be pivotal in determining whether fiscally troubled states (e.g. California, Illinois, New York) are forced to resolve their debts themselves or succeed in getting them federalized/bailed out.

“So 2028 will become a very very important election because this going to determine whether these states have to finally make ends meet or whether they will basically just try and federalize their problems.” View on YouTube

If California's Billionaire Tax Act passes, it will be challenged in court as unconstitutional, taking roughly 6 to 8 years to resolve and ultimately reaching the US Supreme Court.

“I think what's going to happen is that if people don't see the forest from the trees here and this thing passes, it's going to get litigated because I think many of us feel that this is fundamentally illegal. That's going to take 6 7 8 years to resolve itself. And I suspect that it will go all the way to the Supreme Court.” View on YouTube

In 2022, Ron DeSantis will win re-election as Governor of Florida by a comfortable (non-close) margin and, by the end of 2022, will be regarded as the national frontrunner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.

“My biggest political winner for 2022. Prediction. I predict my man, Ron DeSantis will be the big winner. He's up for re-election in Florida...this time. I think he's going to cruise to reelection quite handily and become the national frontrunner on the GOP side.” View on YouTube

In 2022, the Omicron variant of COVID-19 will prove effectively unstoppable in the United States, leading much of the country to shift toward DeSantis-style, less-restrictive COVID policies.

“I think the rest of the country is going to come around to his point of view because the unstoppable of Omicron next year.” View on YouTube

In the 2022 midterms there will be a Republican ‘red wave’: Democrats will lose control of the U.S. House of Representatives, and shortly after that loss Nancy Pelosi will announce her retirement from Congress and/or from House leadership.

“my pick for Biggest Political Loser next year is Nancy Pelosi. I there's a red wave coming. The Democrats for sure are going to lose the House that is baked into the cake. And I predict she will announce her retirement shortly after that.” View on YouTube

'Rise of the rest'—the migration of people and industry from high-tax coastal states like California and New York to zero/low-tax states such as Florida, Texas, and Tennessee—will accelerate in 2022 compared to prior years.

“I got rise of the rest...I think it's a trend that's been going on, but it's going to keep getting bigger next year...I think that trend is only going to pick up steam now that salt is dead.” View on YouTube

In 2022, reshoring of American industry from China to the U.S. will meaningfully increase, with new facilities and investments disproportionately going to ‘rest of U.S.’ states like Texas rather than to California or New York, reinforcing the ‘rise of the rest’ trend.

“as we decouple from China and bring our supply chain home...that is going to be a big factor in the rise of the rest.” View on YouTube

The U.S. Federal Reserve will end its quantitative easing program by March 2022, and from April 2022 onward the absence of new QE liquidity will cause significant declines or underperformance in asset classes that benefited most from excess liquidity (e.g., collectibles, art, crypto, and some growth stocks).

“the fed is going to stop quantitative easing or so they have said they are. I guess March will be the last month in which they do this QE. So starting in April there won't be any of this liquidity pumped into the system...the losers are going to be any of these asset classes that are heavily dependent on or have benefited from all this excess liquidity sloshing through the system.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2022, following a Republican ‘red wave’ in the midterms, the Democratic Party establishment and major Democratic voices will openly revive and praise Bill Clinton’s centrist ‘triangulation’ approach as a model for the party’s future.

“I predict that there will be a strange new respect for Bill Clinton in the Democratic Party by the end of next year...after the red wave, there'll be a recognition that they need to move towards the center.” View on YouTube

In the November 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Hispanic and Asian-American voters, as a group, will support Republican candidates at significantly higher rates than in recent election cycles, effectively behaving as Republican-leaning swing blocs.

“it's already the case in polling that Hispanics and Asian Americans now are swing voters. And I think you're going to see in November 2022 that they go for Republicans in big numbers.” View on YouTube

In 2022, major U.S. ‘prestige’ media outlets (e.g., NYT, Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC) will markedly shift their COVID-19 narrative from alarmist to accommodative—emphasizing that COVID must be lived with, likening it more to a cold/flu, downplaying eradication or lockdown strategies, and implicitly disavowing their earlier pro-lockdown stance—in order to politically benefit Democrats ahead of the midterms.

“I think the media the media is going to pull a total 180 on Covid...after pumping out Covid fear porn for two years, they're going to change their tune next year...Some of the things you're going to hear, we need to live with Covid. It can't be eradicated. They're even going to say it's it's more like a cold or flu...They're going to memory hold their support for lockdowns...Therefore, the media will say it's over.” View on YouTube

In 2022, mainstream media coverage of COVID will substantially reverse from fear/hysteria to the opposite narrative, driven by the midterm election; outlets will consciously contradict and memory-hole their prior COVID narratives to support the election outcome they prefer.

“my prediction, like I said, is that it all flips next year. Why? Because there's an election. And the way the media figures out what it's going to, what its narrative is going to be, is they start with the election result they want, and then they reverse engineer the narrative that they think is going to help achieve that election result. And if it means contradicting what they said yesterday, they will memory hole what they said yesterday in order to get on board with the new narrative. That is what's going to happen.” View on YouTube

In 2022, California will have a major statewide ballot initiative for school choice that would give parents a ~$13,000-per-pupil state voucher usable at any accredited school; it will be one of the biggest election issues in California (and possibly nationally) that year, with over $100 million spent in total by both sides.

“Oh, let me make a prediction in that regard. Next year, there's going to be a ballot initiative in California to for school choice. And the way it's going to work is that I think there's something like $13,000 spent per pupil in California. ... There's going to be there's going to be a ballot initiative that says that any parent who wants to send their kid to an accredited school can get a voucher for $13,000 from the state that's going to be on the ballot, I predict. ... I predict it will be the big, big election in California and maybe the nation next year. And I think more than 100 million will be spent on both sides of that thing.” View on YouTube

In 2022, Series A venture investments will outperform other venture stages (seed and growth) on a returns/multiples basis and will be the best area to invest in within venture capital.

“I just said series A venture because it's pretty unoriginal. It's what I do. I think growth got a little bit overfunded and overheated. And I think the seed stage also there's like. So there was so many new seed investors. Again, it might have been partially because of excess liquidity. So series A is still the choke point. And I think it's still the best area to invest in. Innovation is not going to stop. There's going to be great series A investments next year.” View on YouTube

In 2022, an intensifying political conflict (“civil war”) between progressive and pragmatic/liberal Democrats will visibly escalate, with high-profile clashes in cities like San Francisco, Philadelphia, New York City, and at the federal level (e.g., over figures like Joe Manchin).

“This is where I had the civil war between progressives and pragmatic liberals. Um, so building on what Chamath said, you're already seeing this in the feud between London Breed and Chesa Boudin. That is really going to, I think, blossom next year. We have not heard the last of that. You saw it in Philadelphia, where the mayor, Michael Nutter, took on Larry Krasner. I think you're going to see it in New York City between Eric Adams and these Manhattan elites. Um, and you also saw in Washington, D.C., where the progressives were blaming Manchin for, you know, losing the build back better. So this is a civil war that's going to continue.” View on YouTube

In 2022, the Republican Party will remain relatively united (with no major internal civil war), but in 2023, during the Republican presidential primary—especially if Donald Trump runs—significant internal conflict and turmoil (“all hell’s going to break loose”) will occur within the party.

“Not not yet, because Trump isn't on the ballot in 2022. So I actually think the Republican Party is going to be surprisingly united in 2022. I think where the trouble might come in is when we have a Republican primary in 2023, and especially if Trump runs, then you know all hell's going to break loose.” View on YouTube

For a future highly lethal, fast-spreading virus, mRNA vaccine technology will enable creation of a matching vaccine candidate essentially within a day of obtaining the pathogen’s genome sequence; remaining delays would be due primarily to human trials and regulatory testing.

“We could have a vaccine the next day, you know, like, you could we could have a very real.” View on YouTube

If income share agreements (ISAs) prove successful, then over time (no explicit date given, but implied over the coming years) each economically valuable trade will be served by its own ISA-based school, with the skills training for those trades migrating out of traditional universities. As a result, the remaining functions of traditional colleges will be largely limited to fields and activities that do not measurably increase earning power.

“I think where this goes, if these ISAs are successful, is that every trade that's valuable will get its own Isa type school, and then that gets peeled out of a university education. So what's left for colleges to do is basically, you know, all the stuff that doesn't add value.” View on YouTube

Assuming Covid-19 vaccines are rolled out and substantially curb Covid within 3–5 months from late November 2020 (i.e., by roughly March–May 2021), the U.S. economy will rebound very strongly and the year 2021 overall will be a "great" year economically.

“I do think the economy is going to bounce back really strong next year because of the vaccines. Right. I think you got to say that if these vaccines and Covid in the next three, four, five months, 2021 is going to be a great year.” View on YouTube

Once Covid-19 vaccines become available (starting in late 2020/early 2021), conditions in the United States will improve, and the year 2021 will be significantly better overall than 2020.

“I do think it's going to get better as soon as these vaccines come to market. So I do think 2021 will be a much, much better year.” View on YouTube

Russia will not invade another European country beyond Ukraine, lacking both the intention and military capability to do so.

“I don't think the Russians have the intention to invade another country and they don't have the capability. Look at how much trouble they've had. We're now three and a half years into the war... I don't even think they can conquer all of Ukraine or at least it'd be extraordinarily difficult and resource consuming.” View on YouTube

Post‑election 2020 legal challenges by the Trump campaign will almost all fail, and Joe Biden will in fact take office as the next U.S. president on Inauguration Day 2021.

“I think there's a series of court challenges we can talk about. I think that they're unlikely to prevail. Very, very unlikely. I think Joe Biden will be the next president.” View on YouTube

Around the 2024 election cycle, Donald Trump will publicly and repeatedly assert that the 2020 presidential election was "stolen" from him, citing the timing of COVID‑19 vaccine announcements as part of his justification.

“on this news alone, Trump in four years will be able to claim on some level that this was a stolen election.” View on YouTube

By summer 2021, COVID‑19 will largely cease to be a major active concern in day‑to‑day life ("a distant bad memory"), after 1–2 quarters of transition, and social life and the global economy will snap back quickly, with a pronounced surge in partying and in‑person socializing for several months once vaccines, treatments, and testing are widely available.

“Yeah, I guess, I guess I am. I think COVID's going to be a distant memory by next summer. I think we'll have 1 to 2 quarters of transition, but I think that once the vaccines are widely available, plus the treatment and the testings for the people who slipped through the cracks, um, yeah, I tend to think things are going to snap back very fast and Covid will just be this bad memory, a very distant bad memory. And I think, in fact, I think things may bounce back the other way. Um, everyone having been cooped up and afraid of getting some life threatening illness are going to come out of this really wanting to party. I think the whole world's going to be like Tel Aviv for, you know, a few months or something.” View on YouTube

Within a few years after 2020 (by the mid‑2020s), COVID‑19 will be so far in the past that many people will look back and question why it caused such political damage to Trump and why society was so afraid of it.

“a few years from now, people could ask, wait, why? Why was it again that Trump lost, you know, um, you know, this Covid thing will be it will be so in the rear view mirror that we'll wonder why we were so afraid of it.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump will continue his election court challenges for a few weeks and effectively end them (i.e., the contest of the result will be over) by Thanksgiving 2020, with courts ultimately ruling against him or throwing out his challenges.

“I think he has to run out these court challenges, which will take a few weeks, but I predict by Thanksgiving... I see the court ultimately ruling against him or throwing it out.” View on YouTube

If Donald Trump chooses to run for president in the 2024 election, he will likely win the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in 2024.

“if he wants to run four years from now, um, I think he probably gets the Republican nomination again.” View on YouTube

In the coming years, Donald Trump will become a kingmaker in Republican politics by launching a Fox News competitor combined with a Tea Party–style grassroots movement, such that Republican candidates will generally need his endorsement or face primary challenges from Trump-aligned candidates.

“I think. I think he will become a kingmaker. And Republican politics, he will launch a competitor to Fox News, but it will also be Fox News hybridized with a grassroots movement like the Tea Party. And every Republican will need to go get his endorsement or they will be primaried by the Trump party.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump’s postelection lawsuits will mostly or entirely fail, and if the election dispute reaches the U.S. Supreme Court, the Court will rule against him; at that point Trump will accept the result (even if he does not formally concede).

“I expect that the obstacles he has to overcome are too large and he will lose these lawsuits. It might go to the Supreme Court... I think that, you know, Trump will accept the result. He may not concede, but he will accept the result when it comes from the Supreme Court.” View on YouTube

If the 2020 presidential election dispute reaches the U.S. Supreme Court, the Court’s decision against Trump will be by a margin of at least 7–2, and possibly 8–1 or 9–0.

“I believe if it gets to the Supreme Court, it will be at least 7 to 2, if not eight 1 or 9 zero” View on YouTube

In the United States, no significant new federal gun control legislation will be enacted for approximately one generation (on the order of 20–30 years) following the time of this statement in September 2020.

“Well, let me make a prediction right now. There's not going to be any new gun control legislation for a generation.” View on YouTube

David Sacks agrees with and endorses Jason Calacanis’s forecast that, heading into the late‑September and October 2020 presidential debates, COVID deaths will be significantly lower, schools will be reopening, and conditions will favor Trump’s narrative that he handled COVID successfully.

“That to me seems like the trajectory” View on YouTube

David Sacks predicts that Donald Trump will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election (stated in early September 2020).

“I would, uh, I predict Trump at this moment” View on YouTube

D predicts that Donald Trump will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election, aligning with betting-market odds on election night 2020.

“I'm gonna go with what the markets are saying, which is Trump.” View on YouTube

D predicts that if Republicans retain control of the U.S. Senate and/or the presidency after the 2020 election, they will politically target Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey as the primary symbol of alleged tech censorship, likely via hearings, investigations, or public campaigns during the subsequent term.

“if the Republicans hold on to the Senate, um, and or the presidency, I think you're going to see Jack Dorsey become the poster child for this new censorship that they're going to target.” View on YouTube

Conditional on Joe Biden winning the presidency by a very narrow electoral margin (on the order of ~2 electoral votes) and Republicans retaining control of the U.S. Senate in the 2020 election, the U.S. will experience a relatively calm four‑year period (2021–2025) of divided government in which partisan political tensions and national “temperature” decline, major new legislation is limited, and most people can largely “ignore Washington” for those four years.

“this scenario which I've we've called the soft landing, where let's say you had a Biden victory by two electoral votes. The Republicans hold on to the Senate… It could be a really good situation for the country for the next four years. You know, temperature would go down… I think we would get what we want, which is the ability to ignore Washington for four years.” View on YouTube

The determination of the winner of the 2020 U.S. presidential election will hinge primarily on the results in Pennsylvania and Michigan; the vote counting in those states will take multiple days beyond Election Night to complete, and the outcome is likely to be contested in court.

“This is going to come down to Pennsylvania and Michigan, and it's going to take days to do those counts, and we're probably going to end up in the courts.” View on YouTube

As of the moment of speaking (late on election night, Nov 3–4, 2020), the presidential race outcome is approximately a 50/50 coin flip, with the conditional structure that Donald Trump must ultimately carry Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all three to win the presidency, while Joe Biden will win the presidency if he carries at least one of those three states, assuming current calls in Wisconsin and Arizona hold.

“I think this thing is back to a coin flip. I mean, Trump now has to win Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania in order to win the presidency. If Biden wins any one of those three states, he wins.” View on YouTube

As of that moment on election night, David predicts: (1) the probability of a Biden victory is roughly 51% vs. 49% for Trump; (2) the resolution of the election result will likely take at least three more days; (3) there will probably be multiple court cases; (4) it is possible that the winner will remain unknown until sometime in December 2020; and (5) resolving the election result may require another U.S. Supreme Court case.

“So, I mean, the reality is, I think this thing I mean, I think it's probably at the end of the day, 51 49 in favor of Biden right now, but we probably have at least three more days and maybe a bunch of court cases. Yeah. This could this could be really bad. I mean, we may not know who the winner is till December, and this may require another Supreme Court case.” View on YouTube

In the post-Trump era (i.e., over the coming years after early 2021), the dominant emerging fault line in American politics will increasingly be framed as 'insider vs. outsider' rather than traditional 'left vs. right,' and this insider–outsider framing will become a major recurring theme in national political discourse.

“And so what you're seeing now is a new fault line in American politics in the post-Trump era. It's not just about left and right anymore. It's about insider versus outsider. And I think this is going to be a major, major theme that we see.” View on YouTube

Over the years following early 2021, a substantial political movement will develop across the United States in which voters increasingly oust incumbent 'insider' officeholders and elect new candidates who campaign explicitly on not being beholden to entrenched special interests.

“we are going to see a movement of people across this country who are sick and tired of the insiders game, and they're going to rise up and vote these insiders out of office and put in some new people who aren't beholden to these powerful special interests.” View on YouTube

Within the near future (“pretty soon”), the only remaining middle‑class Californians earning over $100,000 per year will mainly be government workers, because most private‑sector middle‑class earners will have left the state due to taxes and regulatory burden.

“The only middle class is going to be left in California pretty soon. Uh, our government workers, I mean, that's it. That's the only people going to be making over $100,000 a year in California. Are the government workers, because everyone who's middle class, who's running a business is just is finding it too difficult and too difficult to earn with the level of taxation and to run their business. And they're. ... leaving.” View on YouTube

Every sovereign country that can afford it will build AI data centers, and each will have to choose between building on American technology or Chinese technology (e.g., Huawei) -- a binary choice with no middle ground.

“Saudi Arabia is going to have data centers. Of course, uh, every sovereign country that can afford them is going to have data centers. Is that going to be American technology or Chinese technology? It's basically going to be our uh companies or it's going to be Huawei. It's binary.” View on YouTube

California will experience a huge state budget shortfall in the fiscal year following this June 30, 2022 discussion (i.e., in 2023), primarily because there will be little to no capital gains tax revenue compared with the prior boom year.

“So do you think that's going to be the case this year? I think we're due for a huge budget shortfall next year because there's going to be no capital gains.” View on YouTube

The eventual political settlement of the Russia–Ukraine war will mirror the prewar three-point plan: (1) Ukraine will remain a neutral state outside of NATO; (2) the eastern Donbas region will have autonomy protecting Russian speakers under de facto Russian control; and (3) Crimea will remain part of Russia, effectively formalizing Russia’s control over approximately the eastern 20% of Ukraine plus Crimea.

“Smart observers of this conflict have been outlining that three point plan for over a year, and that is what we're going to end up with. The only difference is that it's going to be implemented by force, and Ukraine will be destroying the process. That is basically where we're at right now. Russia has. They've taken over the Donbas. They've taken over this eastern 20% of the country. They have Crimea and Ukraine. Basically. The rest of it will not be part of NATO. That is basically what the Russians have done is implement by force a plan that, frankly, we could have agreed to through negotiation a year ago and avoided all this death and destruction” View on YouTube

The Russia–Ukraine war will ultimately end with an agreement under which (1) Ukraine is formally neutral and not in NATO, (2) the Donbas region gains autonomy protecting Russian speakers and is effectively under Russian influence, and (3) Crimea remains under Russian control; this outcome will occur regardless of how long the war lasts or how much destruction occurs in Ukraine beforehand.

“Let me just tell you right now, the deal that would end this war is the same deal that was on the table last year with zero bloodshed, which is Ukraine remains a neutral state. There's autonomy for the Russian speakers in the Donbas. And Crimea basically remains part of Russia. That was the deal. That is the deal. That will be the deal. The only question is, does the whole country have to be destroyed” View on YouTube

Following the July 2023 preprint by the South Korean team on a purported room‑temperature, ambient‑pressure superconductor, other research groups will attempt to replicate the reported results by reproducing the material and measurements.

“It will be replicated. People will try and do what they are now claiming they did. To demonstrate this” View on YouTube

If the South Korean team's claimed room‑temperature, ambient‑pressure superconductor is real (i.e., their result is valid and replicable), it will end up being regarded as the most important discovery in physics of the 21st century.

“If they did not make a fraudulent claim. And it is and it does turn out to be real, then I do think it'll end up being the the most important discovery in physics of this century.” View on YouTube

Throughout the Russia‑Ukraine conflict that began with the February 24, 2022 invasion, the United States will not directly intervene militarily in Ukraine (i.e., no deployment of U.S. combat forces into Ukraine to fight Russian forces).

“the United States of America would not intervene militarily in Ukraine. We should all understand that... we are not going to intervene militarily in that conflict, nor should we” View on YouTube

If the Russia‑Ukraine war does not escalate into a larger war involving other great powers, Vladimir Putin will not seek to occupy all of Ukraine indefinitely; instead, the likely scenario is that Russian forces will remain in Ukraine for on the order of about one year, during which Russia will install a puppet or strongly pro‑Russian government in Kyiv and then withdraw most of its forces, similar to Russia’s behavior in Georgia in 2008.

“I don't think he wants this problem long term. It's probably going to be more like the situation we had in Georgia in 2008. He goes in for a year. He institutes perhaps some sort of puppet government or some government that's more favorable to him, and then he gets out. Probably this is if there's no escalation.” View on YouTube

The U.S. FDA will grant authorization/approval for the new oral COVID-19 antiviral pills from Pfizer and Merck by the end of the week following this Dec 23, 2021 recording (i.e., by December 31, 2021).

“these new oral Covid antiviral pills that are coming out from Pfizer and Merck. The FDA is supposed to be approving them by the end of this week.” View on YouTube

Widespread availability and use of the new oral protease-inhibitor antiviral pills for COVID-19 (from Pfizer and Merck) will effectively end the COVID-19 pandemic during 2022 (e.g., by preventing large future waves of severe disease).

“These new pills have, I think, a very good shot of doing it next year because they're protease inhibitors... I am hopeful that this will be the thing hopefully that ends the pandemic next year. Are these new antiviral pills?” View on YouTube

The term "transitory" will soon stop being widely used by U.S. policymakers, administration officials, and media commentators to describe inflation; its popularity as a descriptor of inflation will fade away over the following year or so after late 2021.

“the use of the word transitory, I predict, will in fact be transitory.” View on YouTube

Barring further economic shocks, it will take about two to three years for US unemployment to fall back from roughly 15% to single digits following the COVID-19 shutdown.

“it's probably going to be a two to three year process to get out of this” View on YouTube

If widespread COVID-19 lockdowns and political unwillingness to end them remain a salient issue by November 2020, voter anger over lockdowns will outweigh concerns about the early mishandling of COVID-19 and will become a key factor benefiting Trump in the 2020 presidential election.

“I do I agree the lockdowns the or the unwillingness to end the lockdowns um gives Trump an issue for November Assuming this continues, that supersedes the incompetence of the Covid response... And I do think it will. If it's still the issue in November, it will supersede the, you know, the initial incompetence of the Covid response.” View on YouTube

In the 2020 U.S. presidential election cycle, policy 'decoupling' from China will become a bipartisan issue: Donald Trump will run his campaign significantly blaming China for the COVID-19 crisis, Joe Biden will not defend China and will be attacked with a 'Beijing Biden' framing, and Biden will respond by taking an even tougher stance on China. As a result, U.S.–China economic decoupling will proceed as an actual policy direction supported by both parties.

“Yeah. Decoupling from China is going to be a bipartisan issue now. Um, I think both candidates now will be well, Trump is going to is going to run blaming China for for what happened. And I don't think Biden's going to be defending China. Um, in fact, they're going to try and peg him with the whole Beijing Biden label. And he's probably going to need to try and out-trump Trump on on China. So decoupling is going to happen.” View on YouTube

Within the coming years after May 2020, the United States will repatriate production of strategic goods such as antibiotics, medicines, and personal protective equipment (PPE), so that these products that are important for national survival are manufactured domestically rather than being dependent on China.

“Um, it doesn't really make sense for us to be dependent on China, for our antibiotics, for our medicines, for our PPE, for any of these, um, you know, any of these products that are important for national survival. Um, I think all that stuff is going to come back home.” View on YouTube

TikTok’s ability to operate in the United States will likely be resolved as part of a larger U.S.–China negotiation, where TikTok’s U.S. market access is traded in a quid pro quo for concessions such as allowing Tesla to sell cars in China or similar reciprocal commercial access.

“Well, you know, what's probably going to happen is that the TikTok will probably be caught up in some larger negotiation. And, you know, is a quid pro quo. Well, Tesla gets to sell cars in China and TikTok gets to operate in the US. Maybe.” View on YouTube

Future U.S.–China (and related) international commerce will increasingly be structured on explicit reciprocity deals—market access for one country’s companies will be granted in exchange for equivalent access or concessions for the other country’s firms, rather than being unilaterally open.

“And I think that's the way that all this commerce is going to is going to start working.” View on YouTube

Over the medium term (within several years of 2022), US inflation will be brought back under control to normal levels because the Federal Reserve will eventually raise interest rates high enough to end the high‑inflation episode.

“look, we are 100% going to solve this inflation problem. Why do I say that? Because price levels are fully within the power of the fed. They just have to raise interest rates high enough.” View on YouTube

By the upcoming winter of 2022–2023, political unity within the Western alliance over the Ukraine war and related Russia sanctions will significantly fracture, with major European countries (such as Germany or others dependent on Russian gas) openly opposing or breaking with the U.S.-led policy line in a way that is visible in their public positions or actions.

“Let me make a prediction. Right. I think the Western alliance is going to fracture come this winter.” View on YouTube

At the point when U.S. interest rates return to their historical average level, the annual federal interest expense on the national debt will consume roughly 30% of the U.S. federal budget.

“when interest rates revert to the norm, the historical norm, interest expense on our debt will be 30% of the government budget” View on YouTube

The Biden administration's mid‑2021 fiscal and monetary agenda—characterized by very large spending and tax increases—will backfire over the next few years by undermining the anticipated post‑COVID economic boom (e.g., via higher inflation, higher interest rates, and weaker growth), in a way comparable to the economic disappointment under President Jimmy Carter.

“It's going to backfire. I think it's going to backfire massively.” View on YouTube

mRNA vaccine/platform technology proven in Covid-19 vaccines will be successfully repurposed in the future for other diseases, potentially including therapeutic applications that directly target and attack certain types of cancer cells.

“even the new mRNA vaccines that were developed for Covid. I mean, it's miraculous, right? And we're going to be able to use that same mRNA technology for other things, other diseases, maybe even to attack cancer cells.” View on YouTube

Joe Biden will not drop out of the 2024 presidential race before he completes and airs the scheduled sit‑down interview with George Stephanopoulos on the weekend following July 3, 2024.

“Well, I don't think he's going to do that because he is scheduled to do a sit down interview with George Stephanopoulos. I think they're recording it on Friday. Right. Which is two days from there.” View on YouTube

Outcome of the early-July 2024 George Stephanopoulos interview will determine Biden’s 2024 candidacy: if the interview performance is broadly perceived as strong, public and intra‑party pressure for Biden to leave the race will substantially subside in the following weeks; if the performance is broadly perceived as poor, Biden will be forced out of the 2024 presidential race within the subsequent weeks and will not ultimately be the Democratic nominee.

“In any event, that's coming out this weekend. I think the Biden presidency basically hinges on this interview. If Biden can show that he's sharp and he's responsive and not senile...I think if he knocks it out of the park, maybe he can quell all of this speculation. But if not, if it goes poorly, then I think he's done.” View on YouTube

Kamala Harris will become President of the United States (via succession or election) as a result of the 2024 cycle; given Biden’s weakness and party constraints, she is the only realistic alternative and will ultimately assume the presidency, likely by January 20, 2025.

“Thanks to your incessant demands for the hot swap, okay. You and many others. And this feeding frenzy... We are going to get President Kamala Harris. She's the only alternative.” View on YouTube

The 2024 Democratic presidential nominee will be either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris; no other Democrat (e.g., Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Michelle Obama, or an outsider like Jamie Dimon) will secure the nomination.

“Look, what the prediction markets are showing is that it's not going to be a free for all. It's either going to be Harris or Biden. I mean, that's what the prediction markets are showing. And I think that's fundamentally right.” View on YouTube

For the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Democratic Party will keep Joe Biden as its nominee and will not replace him with another candidate (including Kamala Harris) prior to the general election.

“I think it's more likely than not that they're not going to replace Biden, because the only feasible alternative is Harris. And she'd be worse.” View on YouTube

As a result of California’s fast-food wage law raising effective minimum wages for large chains from about $15 to $22, big chain restaurants operating in California will increase their use of automation and correspondingly reduce the number of low-wage human workers they employ in that subsector, relative to what they would have employed absent the law.

“the unintended consequence that is talking about is that these big chain restaurants are going to rely even more heavily on automation now, and they're going to basically employ less of this labor where the price has been artificially raised for that subsector of the economy from 15 to $22” View on YouTube

Meaningful political repositioning of the California Republican Party toward the center sufficient to make significant electoral progress in a +30 Democratic state will take multiple election cycles, on the order of generations (decades), rather than being achievable within just one or two election cycles after 2022.

“the Republican Party in California needs to move to the center. It's a plus 30 blue state. Unless they're willing to do that, they're not going to make progress. But that could take, you know, generations to fix.” View on YouTube

Due to high gas prices and resulting fertilizer and CO2 shortages, Germany will experience a beer shortage severe enough that they will effectively 'run out of beer' around the time of Oktoberfest 2022.

“Well guess what. The Germans are not only about to run out of gas, they're about to run out of beer.” View on YouTube

In the United States, the post‑COVID economy will rebound strongly in 2021, with a boom resembling a "Roaring 20s" environment; specifically, unemployment will fall to roughly 3% by the end of 2021 and the acute phase of the COVID-19 crisis in the U.S. will effectively be over by May 2021.

“Everyone's been lulled into a false sense of security because interest rates are so low... the economy is getting better. Right? It looks like we're about to have the Roaring 20s. The economy looks like it's rebounding. It's about to boom. Goldman Sachs says we're going to be down to like 3% unemployment by the end of the year. It's coming back really fast. Covid is going to be over in May.” View on YouTube

Because the U.S. is using extreme fiscal measures (multi‑trillion‑dollar stimulus) in 2021 despite a rebounding economy, if another major economic emergency occurs in the near future, the federal government will have significantly reduced fiscal capacity to respond effectively.

“we're breaking the glass in case of emergency when there is no emergency. And what happens if there is another emergency?” View on YouTube

If California enacts the proposed state-level wealth tax (AC 8 as described: 1% over $50M and 1.5% over $1B), it will not raise the projected ~$22 billion annually; instead, overall California tax revenue will decrease relative to the no-wealth-tax baseline because enough affected high-wealth individuals will leave the state, taking businesses, investment, and associated tax base with them.

“They estimate the wealth tax would generate over 22 billion. We've already seen Elon and it won't. That's a static analysis. That's such a stupid analysis because it's completely... You're not going to raise 22 billion from this. You're going to raise it's actually going to lead to a decrease in tax revenue, because so many of these people are going to leave the state and they're going to take investment with them, their businesses with them, their job creation with them.” View on YouTube

The California wealth tax proposal being discussed (AC 8, as of early 2021) will fail to obtain sufficient votes in the California legislature and will not be enacted into law in either 2021 or 2022.

“So just the mere fact they're proposing this bill, I don't think they're going to get the votes in this legislature. There's six Democrats have already come out against it. So I don't think it's going to pass this year or next year.” View on YouTube

Republicans are expected to make big seat pickups in the 2022 midterms, though the Senate will be tougher for the GOP than the House.

“well i mean pretty clearly the republicans are expected to have big pickups uh in this midterm right” View on YouTube

If the generic congressional ballot favors Republicans by only about two points, Democrats can likely keep the Senate in 2022; if it reaches six to seven points, Democrats will lose it.

“if you have a generic ballot that favors republicans by like two points the democrats can probably keep the senate if it gets to like six points or seven points then then the wall topples” View on YouTube

Regardless of the specific IEEPA case outcome, the U.S. Supreme Court will not issue a ruling by October 14, 2025 that requires a material rollback or cessation of Trump’s then-current tariff policy; tariffs will remain substantially in place using alternative statutory authority if needed.

“Well, I'm not concerned about the fate of tariffs at the Supreme Court, even though it's probably a coin flip. Whether the Supreme Court's going to allow the tariffs under Ieepa. But there are five different laws under which the president has the authority to impose these tariffs... So at the end of the day, I think it's actually quite unlikely that the Supreme Court's going to force a change in tariff policy.” View on YouTube

According to CBO projections cited here, U.S. tariff policy in place under Trump in 2025 will generate approximately $4 trillion in federal revenue over the subsequent 10 years (by around 2035).

“And I just want to note that the CBO has now increased their projection of what tariffs will raise to 4 trillion over the next decade.” View on YouTube

No U.S. president succeeding Trump through at least January 20, 2033 will fully repeal Trump-era tariffs; the overall tariff structure will remain materially intact (no broad return to pre-Trump tariff levels across major categories such as Chinese imports and EVs).

“My guess is that they're not going to be reversed in the future by a future president, because I think they actually are quite popular with the country, with workers...” View on YouTube

If Trump wins the pending Supreme Court case on tariff authority, his administration will attempt within his current term (ending January 20, 2029) to get Congress to codify key elements of his tariff policy into statute.

“So yeah, it may make sense after the administration hopefully wins its case to seek to codify these things into law. We have a few years to do that, but I don't think it makes sense to wait for Congress to act because they may never act.” View on YouTube

Federal court challenges will not invalidate Trump’s National Guard deployment and related federal law-enforcement intervention in Washington, D.C.; those interventions will continue to be legally permitted through at least the end of his current term.

“So, look, I think the court reached a very specific decision about what happened in California. We still haven't had a case adjudicating the question of whether the proposed interventions in these blue states to clean up crime will be allowed, over the objections of Democratic governors. We don't know. I think it's pretty clear that the DC intervention will be allowed, and it's extremely popular.” View on YouTube

The United States will not enter a recession (as commonly defined by forecasters and betting markets) during calendar year 2025.

“So I'd be surprised if if there's a recession, I think there's a lot of factors against it.” View on YouTube

The roughly $8 trillion of new investment in the US economy that has been announced will begin to significantly impact the real economy, with most of its effects showing up by late 2026 and into 2027.

“And that's going to land over the next year, right? That hasn't actually been dumped in. ... We should see that in 2027. Maybe late 2026.” View on YouTube

US retail gasoline prices will remain relatively low compared to the 2022–2023 period for at least the near term following summer 2025 (i.e., they will not spike back to prior highs in the subsequent months).

“Number three, this has been the most affordable summer at the pump since 2021. And low gas prices don't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon.” View on YouTube

At the September 2025 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (not 50), and is likely to follow with at least one additional 25 basis point cut afterward.

“I would say that now, in light of the latest jobs report, Powell should really cut 50 basis points... I doubt he will. It's probably going to be 25 and then hopefully another 25.” View on YouTube

Over the coming rate‑cut cycle starting in late 2025, lower interest rates will stimulate US economic growth and improve the US fiscal position, contributing to a generally strong ("bullish") US economy in 2026.

“But regardless of what it is, I think that most people think interest rates are coming and that's going to juice the economy and further improve our fiscal position. So look for 26. I think there's a lot of bullish factors here.” View on YouTube

Within two years of the podcast date (by around May 2027), unemployment driven by AI will not reach on the order of 20% of the workforce; in particular, scenarios where roughly 20% of workers are unemployed due to AI adoption will not materialize.

“I just think this idea that, boom, 20% of the workforce is going to be unemployed in two years, I just don't think that it's going to work that way.” View on YouTube

The current boom in assets such as SaaS, Nasdaq, S&P, and crypto may continue for at least another five years without a major reversal.

“look, the flip side of it is we could keep having a boom for five more years, you know, and so the.” View on YouTube

The GameStop short-squeeze episode will end badly for many of the retail traders buying in at elevated prices; a significant number of them will lose money when the trade unwinds.

“Probably. This is not going to end well. There's no question about that.” View on YouTube

From late January 2021 onward, new retail investors who buy into GameStop during the squeeze will likely not beat the hedge funds; instead, the hedge funds will have regrouped and will outperform or outmaneuver late-arriving retail traders on this trade.

“Now anyone who's piling into it, I'd be real careful because I think the hedge funds have regrouped, you know, and, um, you know, the idea that you're going to beat beat them at their own game, you know, when look, I mean, Citadel is executing your trades.” View on YouTube

The early‑2021 GameStop (GME) short‑squeeze episode will ultimately end very badly for participants who buy at inflated prices, with the stock price falling sharply from its squeeze-driven highs rather than remaining sustainably elevated.

“Do I personally think GameStop is overvalued? Yes, of course I think it's going to end very badly.” View on YouTube

Implementing broad U.S. student loan forgiveness framed as a bailout of college-educated borrowers will politically hurt (rather than help) Democrats, because non‑college, working‑class voters who bear the cost will react negatively.

“I think this could potentially hurt them because to your point, this is basically a bailout of the woke professional class... Meanwhile, the majority of the country is working class... and they're going to have to pay for this bailout...” View on YouTube

SpaceX’s Starlink division will develop into a highly successful, large-scale commercial business, generating substantial revenues and profits relative to typical satellite-communications businesses, over the coming years.

“And I think Starlink is going to be a phenomenal business.” View on YouTube

The U.S. will experience a major recession in 2023, constituting the second leg of a 'double‑dip' recession driven by the cumulative effect of Federal Reserve interest rate increases.

“But remember Jason I said that we were going to have a double dip. That was that was the most likely thing... I still think the huge recession is to come next year because all the interest rate increases we've seen... So I think we're headed for a recession next year.” View on YouTube

Despite post‑debate pressure, Joe Biden will not be replaced as the Democratic nominee before the 2024 general election; there will be no ‘hot swap’ of the nominee.

“I actually think that on balance, the hot swap is not going to happen.” View on YouTube

The startup Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI), which emphasizes safety in developing superintelligence, will not become a top‑tier winner in the AGI race; its safety‑first approach will cause it to lose competitively to faster‑moving rivals like OpenAI and Google over the next several years.

“I'm not bullish about that pitch because I think it it makes the company a little bit schizophrenic... So you've got to move very fast. On the other hand, you're saying you're going to basically make this very safe... safety concerns are a brake pedal... And so I don't but I don't think that's the recipe for winning because you're the guys who want to move slower.” View on YouTube

In the emerging race to AGI over the coming years, AI companies that prioritize safety more than their competitors will systematically lose market share and technological leadership, leading to a Darwinian dynamic that favors less safety‑constrained firms.

“I think this is maybe the tragic situation is we're going to have this competition by all these different companies to advance AI. And the companies that care about safety more than others are going to lose. And so you have this Darwinian effect going on where there's going to be a race to AGI.” View on YouTube

If regulators do not require a la carte pricing that neutralizes bundle advantages, Microsoft will continue adding new products to its Office/365 bundle each year and will, over time, systematically dominate broad swaths of enterprise software markets through this bundling strategy.

“If we don't do that, I do think that Microsoft will use the power of the bundle to systematically dominate enterprise software, and they won't take on everybody at once. But like I said, they'll every year they'll add a new product to the bundle.” View on YouTube

Over the tightening cycle that begins with the 2022 rate hikes, it will be very difficult for the Federal Reserve to achieve a soft landing; there is a substantial likelihood that a U.S. recession will be triggered before inflation is brought under control.

“I think that the risk of recession now is much higher than it was even a month ago. Now, you know, it's going to be hard to know. So basically, I think what we're saying is it's going to be very hard for the fed to engineer a soft landing here where we don't trigger a recession in the process of stopping inflation.” View on YouTube

Despite the June 2025 ceasefire, armed conflict between Israel and Iran will resume in the future (i.e., there will be additional military or proxy clashes beyond the June 2025 ‘12‑day war’ episode).

“This is not over. Iran and Israel are mortal enemies and we have a cease fire. Here we have a pause in the action, but it's going to flare up again at some point.” View on YouTube

Over the coming years, the dominant ideological alignment in U.S. national politics will solidify into a binary choice between a populist-nationalist Republican Party (MAGA-style) and a populist-socialist Democratic Party, with traditional neoliberal and neoconservative factions losing meaningful influence.

“Those are the choices for the future. Let me tell you, you can basically go with you're going to have a populist socialism in the Democratic Party, or you're going to have a populist nationalism in the Republican Party... your choices are MAGA or socialism. Which one do you want?” View on YouTube

Real-world infrastructure constraints (land, power, chips) will prevent the AI-driven economy from transforming as radically as either hyper-utopian or hyper-dystopian narratives predict within the next few years.

“I don't think there's time in the next few years for the whole economy to change in the way that the extremes would present.” View on YouTube

The White House will release additional details or announcements on the ratepayer protection pledge for AI data centers within the following week.

“I think the president's approach finds a very good balance here... And I think you'll see more coming out about this from the White House next week.” View on YouTube

Tariff policy will persist in some form under future U.S. administrations regardless of party, and will prove to be a durably popular policy over the long term.

“And I predict that future administrations, whether they're Republican or Democrat, will keep some version of the tariffs in place, but I think that they will be ultimately popular on a long-standing basis.” View on YouTube

The Callin app will publicly launch on 2021-09-02.

“Yeah. So anyway, the whole world can listen to us drunk on call in in, uh, we're launching on September 2nd, so.” View on YouTube

Within the coming years after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan (starting in 2021), China will reach agreements with the Taliban government to build major transport infrastructure (e.g., a highway) in Afghanistan aimed at extracting and exporting the country's rare earth and other mineral resources to support China's economy.

“China is going to Afghanistan right now and cutting deals with the Taliban to build a highway so they can get to the rare earth minerals which Afghanistan is rich in, and they're going to use the superhighway. They're going to build to get that out and feed their economy.” View on YouTube

SARS‑CoV‑2 (COVID‑19) will become endemic and persist indefinitely in the human population, similar to the common cold or seasonal flu, rather than being eradicated.

“And the problem is COVID's going to be around forever. It's like the cold or the flu.” View on YouTube

By U.S. Memorial Day 2021 (around May 31, 2021), the Covid-19 pandemic will effectively be "over" in the United States in practical terms (i.e., life largely normalized with restrictions mostly lifted).

“we were saying that Covid would be over by Memorial Day.” View on YouTube

A meaningful subset of late‑stage private companies in the 2022 IPO backlog will go public at valuations below their last private round (down‑round IPOs) over the ensuing IPO cycle (roughly 2022–2023).

“Some of them are probably going to have to IPO at down rounds. I think that's sort of the takeaway.” View on YouTube

In the ongoing 2025 US–China trade negotiations triggered by the April 2025 tariff actions, the current Chinese cutoff of rare earths to the United States will be explicitly resolved in a formal agreement, restoring US access to rare earth materials or processing from China.

“China has now cut off the United States. And so as part of this trade negotiation, we're going to have to resolve that issue. And I trust that it will be.” View on YouTube

US–India security and trade relations will remain closely aligned and stable for at least the next 20 years, with no major strategic rupture between the two countries in that period.

“I don't know how long it's going to take. But look, I think one of the big lessons here over the past 25 years is that you have security first... So security always has to come first, then you work out trade. And I think that India is fundamentally, extremely aligned with us on security... And I do think that the US India relationship is just very aligned. And I think therefore the investments that get made in the trade, relationships that get forged will be very stable over the next couple of decades.” View on YouTube

Throughout the remainder of the 21st century, China will remain both India’s and the United States’ primary security threat, with no other country surpassing China as their top security concern before 2100.

“Again, their main security threat is China. And our main security threat is China. And that's just not going to change for probably the entire 21st century.” View on YouTube

Despite tariff-related uncertainty, hyperscaler capital expenditure and data center build-outs (including Google's planned ~$75B infrastructure spend) will not be meaningfully reduced in the next quarter or two; these investments will be maintained at planned levels.

“I think it's going to hold up. I mean, look, I just think that this investment in CapEx and the data center build outs is so strategic right now.” View on YouTube

The Doge program in the U.S. federal government will continue operating beyond 2025, but Elon Musk will reduce his direct involvement to roughly 1–2 days per week instead of being on it full time.

“So my sense is that Doge is going to continue. It's just that Ellen is shifting to a mode where he can manage it. One day a week or two days a week, as opposed to being there five days a week.” View on YouTube

The United States will eventually experience a significant debt or fiscal crisis before Congress undertakes major structural changes to its spending/appropriations behavior; only after such a crisis will Congress broadly recognize and praise Elon Musk’s deficit-cutting efforts via Doge.

“Unfortunately, Congress will never, I think, change its ways until they're forced to by some sort of crisis, which I think is your point about eventually will be in a debt crisis, and then Congress will finally see the wisdom and they'll finally appreciate what Ellen did.” View on YouTube

At some unspecified future date after this January 25, 2025 episode, David Sacks will return as an on-air participant on the All-In Podcast.

“Look, I'll be back. Don't worry. At some point.” View on YouTube

Within a few weeks of January 25, 2025, David Sacks will complete the government ethics/onboarding process for his White House role and will transition from primarily listening to actively shaping policy related to his assigned responsibilities (e.g., crypto and AI).

“So we've signed these EOS. It's given me certain responsibilities and authorized me to do certain things. And that process is going to begin as soon as I complete this. I guess you could call it onboarding. So just to be clear about that, there's things I can do. There's things I can't do. I can kind of be in listening mode. I can't be necessarily shaping policy yet, so that's all going to be worked through over the next couple of weeks.” View on YouTube

As of roughly 2–3 weeks into Ukraine’s June 2023 counteroffensive, the operation will continue to make minimal territorial gains and will fail to achieve its stated objective of breaking through Russia’s prepared defensive lines and significantly reversing Russian territorial gains.

“so far, it seems like this counteroffensive is not going anywhere.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2023, Russia’s military will have expanded to approximately 150,000 additional troops mobilized for the war in Ukraine (i.e., around 150,000 men under arms specifically added for this conflict).

“I think it's estimated that by the end of the year, they're going to have 150,000 men under arms.” View on YouTube

U.S. production of 155mm artillery shells will not reach a sustained rate of approximately 90,000 shells per month until around 2028.

“they're trying to hold on. They're trying to ramp it up to 90,000 a month, but that's going to take until 2028 because, you know, it takes time to build it.” View on YouTube

In Taiwan’s next national election in 2024, the China-friendlier ("pro‑China") party is currently favored and has a significant chance of winning power, replacing the more pro‑West party then in office.

“on Taiwan. There's an election next year, and it looks like right now that the pro-China party might actually take power.” View on YouTube

If Ron DeSantis continues to poll as strongly as he was at the end of 2022 within the Republican Party, Donald Trump will choose not to run in the 2024 Republican presidential primary to avoid the risk of losing.

“And if if it can just be DeSantis versus Trump in the primary, he has a much better shot than if it's Trump versus a bunch of other challengers. And I think that if he continues to pull this well within the Republican Party, I think Trump might not run again, because Trump definitely does not want to risk being a loser in the Republican primary.” View on YouTube

US defense contractors mentioned (Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, General Dynamics) will continue to perform well in the stock market for at least the next year following December 2022, relative to the broader market.

“So these companies are going to keep doing well for the next year at least.” View on YouTube

Twitter will soon (within months of December 2022) roll out a custom affiliation badge for the All-In podcast accounts and hosts.

“We are going to have all in badges really soon.” View on YouTube

Sacks predicts that the trend of audiences recognizing corporate media as biased and agenda-driven will continue, with an increasing share of people opting out of corporate media and turning to independent media over the coming years.

“best trend is the growing realization that the corporate media is failing does not tell the truth. It has an agenda. More and more people are opting out of it and going with independent media... I think more and more people are waking up from the matrix and realizing that we're living in this media controlled simulation.” View on YouTube

Sacks predicts that the movie "Dalíland" (which he references as "Dolly land") will be released to the public in the summer of 2023.

“I'll give a shout out to my movie Dolly land, which will be coming out next summer.” View on YouTube

For the 2024 U.S. presidential election, there is approximately a 50% chance Joe Biden will be on the general-election ballot and approximately a 50% chance Donald Trump will be on the general-election ballot.

“Do I think Biden or Trump could be on the ballot? I think it's 50–50 for both of them.” View on YouTube

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative will be formally sunset or disbanded on July 4, 2026, the 250th anniversary of the United States.

“Ellen and Vivek have announced that Doge will be sunsetting or disbanding at the 250th anniversary of America, which would be July 4th of 2026. So they've only given themselves about what's that, 18 months?” View on YouTube

If Donald Trump creates a new third party (e.g., the suggested Patriot Party) that substantially splits the right-of-center vote, the Republican Party will effectively lose every major election (at least at the national level) for as long as Trump remains a significant political force.

“Oh, it would fracture the Republican Party. It would be, um, I guess the best historical analog would be when Teddy Roosevelt left the party to form the Bull Moose Party, he actually fractured the Republican Party. And that allowed, I think, Woodrow Wilson to win the presidency, beating Taft. Um, yeah. I mean, the Republicans would basically lose every election, um, from now until Trump is no longer a force in American politics. If he created, I guess.” View on YouTube

Under the Biden administration, the U.S. government will ultimately impose no meaningful restrictions or bans on TikTok’s operation in the United States; the Trump-era TikTok sanctions effort will effectively be abandoned.

“Yeah, I think the sad reality is that the whole TikTok thing is going to get swept under the rug. I think there'll be no restrictions on TikTok.” View on YouTube

The Gavin Newsom recall petition will obtain enough certified signatures to qualify, and the resulting recall election will be scheduled roughly 4–5 months after certification, likely around July 2021.

“I think they will get there. I think they'll get there and then there and then the recall election would take place about 4 to 5 months after, uh, after that, there's a couple of months where it moves through the finance committee. The recall election has to be budgeted. And then, um, Newsom would have the opportunity to set a date within, I think, 60 to 80 days, roughly. So I think we're looking at July for a recall election” View on YouTube

The U.S. Supreme Court will reject (overturn or vacate) the Colorado Supreme Court’s ruling that barred Donald Trump from appearing on Colorado’s 2024 presidential primary ballot under the 14th Amendment.

“I mean, the Supreme Court of the United States is surely going to reject this decision.” View on YouTube

Given the legal actions taken against him as of late 2023, Donald Trump is on track to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election and return to the White House.

“I think hes headed for the white House on this basis right now.” View on YouTube

Bob Chapek will lose his job as CEO of Disney before the end of calendar year 2022 as a result of the political and employee-activism controversy in Florida.

“I don't think he's going to survive the year after what just happened at Disney.” View on YouTube

The University of California system’s suspension of SAT/ACT requirements for admissions, officially extended until at least 2025, will in practice become permanent; standardized test requirements for UC undergraduate admissions will never be reinstated.

“they say they're not bringing back the requirements until at least 2025. And you can bet it's never going to return at all.” View on YouTube

In response to the Biden administration’s evolving antitrust posture as of early 2022, many large U.S. technology companies will materially reduce or pause significant M&A activity until there is greater clarity on enforcement standards.

“I think this administration is creating tremendous business uncertainty. I think the reaction of a lot of big tech companies is it's going to be to stop doing M&A until the situation gets clarified, because they just don't know.” View on YouTube

Within a few weeks of this June 2025 discussion, the US House of Representatives will pass the Genius Act (the stablecoin bill), after which President Trump will sign it into law during his current term.

“And I would expect the House will act in the next few weeks on this. And then the president will have a bill he can sign.” View on YouTube

Following passage of the Genius Act, major US banks will launch their own US‑dollar stablecoins under the new regulatory framework.

“in the wake of this genius act, the stablecoin bill that the banks have now talked about getting into stablecoins, they're going to issue one.” View on YouTube

Under the Genius Act, Tether and other currently offshore USD stablecoin issuers will, within three years of the law’s enactment, relocate their stablecoin operations onshore to the United States and comply with US regulatory requirements.

“tether will under this act will have three years to come on shore. But the bottom line is they will have to operate in the United States.” View on YouTube

During the then‑current U.S. political administration in 2021 (the Biden administration), it will be very difficult to further expand or liberalize U.S. equity‑crowdfunding laws beyond the status quo of 2021.

“I think it's gonna be very hard to get get those crowdfunding laws expanded under the current regime.” View on YouTube

Global venture capital annual investment volume will reach approximately $1 trillion by the year 2030.

“Wouldn't be surprised if VC hits 1 trillion by 2030.” View on YouTube

The political situation for Donald Trump in the 2020 election will look significantly different (more favorable) by roughly five to six months from June 2020, as the economy recovers and civil unrest subsides.

“Right now it looks pretty bleak, because I do think that his reaction to the crisis was seen as very inflammatory. Um, but I think six months from now could be a very different story. Five months.” View on YouTube

As of June 20, 2020, if the U.S. presidential election were held immediately, Donald Trump would lose to Joe Biden.

“if the election were today, he would lose.” View on YouTube

If the enhanced ACA (Obamacare) subsidies extended for three years in the Inflation Reduction Act are renewed instead of sunsetting after those three years, the IRA will increase the federal deficit by roughly $155 billion over its 10‑year scoring window instead of reducing it by about $305 billion.

“if you extend that subsidy three years from now, just that one item alone makes the deficit reduction in this bill go from $305 billion over the ten year period to -155 billion. So just that one item, if you continue it and don't sunset it, just that one thing makes this a hugely deficit not reducing bill but deficit increasing bill.” View on YouTube

Additional significant information will be revealed in the future about the FBI unit that conducted the Mar-a-Lago search, including its prior misconduct in investigations involving Donald Trump.

“I think there's still more to come out about this.” View on YouTube

The US will not go through a second nationwide COVID-19 lockdown, because people (especially in red states) will not support it, even as case counts rise on college campuses in fall 2020.

“there's not going to be a second lockdown it doesn't make any sense and even if there were people aren't going to support it” View on YouTube

Over the months following September 2020, rapid COVID antigen tests using small handheld readers and disposable swabs will roll out widely in the U.S. via private adoption (e.g., stores and restaurants), not through a coordinated government mandate; early adopters will use them at entry, and a de facto system of recent-test proof (receipts/vouchers) will emerge so individuals do not have to be swabbed repeatedly each day.

“I think they will be everywhere. And, uh, you know, I don't think it'll be a government mandated thing. So I don't think the government will get its act together, but it'll be the kind of thing where you go shopping at a store or whatever, and they'll be early adopters or a restaurant, they'll start using it. People will realize, well, wait, I don't want to get swabbed three times a day, so then they'll get some sort of like receipt or voucher they can take with them to the next place.” View on YouTube

By summer 2021, COVID-19 will be a "distant memory" in practical terms in the U.S.: case rates will have dropped substantially, and people will largely have returned to pre‑pandemic activities (e.g., attending sports games and public events) at levels similar to summer 2019/2020, with only limited transitional measures like rapid testing in place for a few additional months.

“for all of these reasons, I think COVID's going to be a distant memory by next summer, I really do. I think, um, I think... I think people will largely be back, um, to what they were doing last summer or by next summer.” View on YouTube

In the post‑COVID period (starting roughly 2021 onward), office usage patterns will shift in a lasting way: many companies will treat offices more like co‑working hubs where employees come in around three days per week and work from home the remaining days, establishing permanent flexibility rather than a full, permanent work‑from‑home model.

“I think offices will become a little bit more like co-working spaces for a single company, where people come in three days a week and work from home a couple days a week. I think there'll be a permanent flexibility, but but I also think that people want to get back to work and they want back to offices and they want to interact with people. And I think everyone's going to be excited to do that again. It's not like everyone's just going to be working from home forever.” View on YouTube

In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump’s stance on COVID policy (opposition to renewed or "permanent" lockdowns and support for reopening) will be a net electoral advantage for him relative to Democrats advocating renewed lockdowns, and this contrast will help Trump’s chances of winning.

“at this point, I would think, I think that Covid is Covid policy is a net plus for Trump in this campaign because, the other side of it is, um, is these permanent lockdowns... and so, you know, again, I think this this idea of permanent lockdowns, if that is the alternative to Trump, will help Trump win.” View on YouTube

In 2023, the United States will experience a pretty severe recession.

“I think we all believe that we're going to have a pretty severe recession next year.” View on YouTube

The economic blowback from cutting Russia off from the global economy will cause a severe negative impact (“economic tsunami”) on the US economy within the subsequent year (by around March 2023).

“there is an economic tsunami headed for our own economy as a result of the blowback from basically severing 144 million Russians from the global economy.” View on YouTube

In 2022, the US will enter a recession, accompanied by gasoline prices rising to around $7–$10 per gallon in at least some parts of the country.

“we have a recession later this year as gas prices go to $7 and $10 a gallon.” View on YouTube

The GENIUS Act (the stablecoin legislation) will be signed by President Trump and become US law within roughly one day of this recording, and the signing will occur before the public release date of this podcast episode (19 Jul 2025).

“So it is going to the president's desk tomorrow and it will become law. We're doing a bill signing with the president. By the time this pod is released, it will probably be law.” View on YouTube

Assuming the legislative process proceeds without major disruption, the Clarity Act (crypto market structure legislation) will pass the Senate and reach President Trump’s desk by the end of September 2025, enabling a presidential bill‑signing and enactment into law around October 2025.

“the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Tim Scott, has said that he wants to finish with the market structure legislation by the end of September. So if all goes well, then we could be looking at a second bill signing and say, October.” View on YouTube

Over the coming years following enactment of the GENIUS Act, global adoption of dollar‑backed stablecoins under the new framework will generate additional cumulative demand in the trillions of US dollars for US Treasury securities.

“there have been studies done that show that the result of this bill could be trillions of dollars of new demand for our debt” View on YouTube

Under the GENIUS Act’s requirements, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer (as of mid‑2025, an offshore entity) will establish an onshore, US‑regulated structure and comply with US regulatory requirements within three years of the Act’s enactment.

“the number one stablecoin player in the world right now is an offshore entity. They will have to come onshore as part of this bill in the next three years.” View on YouTube

Once the GENIUS Act is in force and implemented, regulated US‑dollar stablecoin issuers will be required to operate under US jurisdiction, undergo quarterly audits, and maintain 100% dollar‑denominated reserves in US bank accounts or Treasuries for each issued dollar stablecoin, such that audits will verify full backing.

“now all the stablecoin companies will have to operate in the United States, they'll be subjected to quarterly audits, and we will know that every stablecoin that's been issued is fully reserved or backed up by a dollar in a US bank account.” View on YouTube

Over the coming years, dollar-based stablecoins will see widespread global usage, becoming commonly used for transactions in many countries outside the United States.

“Well, I think what's going to happen with these dollar based stablecoins is they'll start being used all over the world.” View on YouTube

In developing countries with weak or untrusted local fiat currencies, a large share of economic transactions will shift to de facto dollarization driven by the use of dollar-based stablecoins over the next several years.

“You could see a large portion of these economies, dollar rising from the bottom up.” View on YouTube

The emergence and growth of stablecoins in the United States will not cause community banks to be put out of business or broadly wiped out; community banks will continue to exist as a significant part of the banking system despite stablecoin adoption over the coming years.

“I think that that fear was wildly overblown on their part. I don't think that's what's going to happen remotely.” View on YouTube

A follow-on "Clarity" bill establishing market structure rules for non-stablecoin crypto tokens will be drafted, advanced, and aimed to be passed or finalized in the United States by October 2025.

“We have a legal framework for stablecoins and market structures. Next, the clarity bill is next. We're going to try and do that by October.” View on YouTube

Canadian provinces will end most or all COVID-19 mandates in the near term (within months of February 2022), rendering the trucker protest’s original policy demands largely moot.

“And meanwhile, all the provinces are ending Covid mandates anyway, so this whole issue is moot.” View on YouTube

Over the coming election cycles after 2022, Asian American voters will measurably shift away from the Democratic Party (toward Republicans or at least away from reliable Democratic support), driven in part by Democratic-backed policies perceived as a "war on merit" in education and declining public safety.

“this war on merit that's happening is something that is going to, you know, flip the Asian American community, I think, to” View on YouTube

Valuations of late-stage SaaS companies that received large financings from Tiger Global at high multiples pre-2022 will decline materially over the ensuing period (e.g., 1–3 years) as markets reprice growth tech stocks.

“I think those valuations are going to come down.” View on YouTube

If Harvard does not fully abandon DEI-based race-conscious policies, then roughly every 1–2 years going forward there will be new whistleblower-driven litigation revealing that Harvard is still engaging in racial discrimination in admissions, resulting in repeated legal findings against Harvard and subsequent policy tweaks followed by further cases.

“And the alternative to the administration saying, just get rid of Dei is that every year or two, we're going to have new litigation where there'll be some whistleblower, and it'll come out that Harvard is still engaging in racial discrimination. And then Harvard will be found guilty like they were in that 2023 case. And they'll change their policy and they'll manipulate it, and they'll play some new game, and there'll be a new court case, and we'll keep going back and forth with them.” View on YouTube

For roughly the next couple of decades after 2021, progressive Democratic candidates in U.S. cities and states they control will routinely frame their campaigns around opposition to Donald Trump and 'Trumpism,' branding their opponents as Trump-like or Trumpist regardless of the opponent's actual alignment, rather than primarily running on local governance issues (crime, homelessness, school quality).

“what you've already seen in the days since the recall is that Gavin Newsom has now laid out the strategy for all progressives in like even from San Francisco to anywhere in the country of how they're going to run and what they're going to do is this that no matter how bad things get in terms of crime, in terms of homelessness, in terms of quality of schools in cities and states that they have complete control over. They're always going to campaign against Trump and Trumpism, and they're going to demonize and otherize whoever the candidate is on the other side as a Trumpist, whether they are or not, that's going to be the playbook from now on.” View on YouTube

If the Republican Party continues to embrace the 'stolen election' myth through the 2022 election cycle, that issue will significantly harm Republican electoral performance in the 2022 U.S. midterm elections (i.e., it will be a major contributing factor to Republican losses or underperformance).

“this election, the stolen election myth, has become an albatross for Republicans. They have to get off that. Um, I think it's ridiculous that's going to bring him down in 2022.” View on YouTube

Anthropic's support for a voluntary AI self-regulatory organization (SRO) proposal is only an opening bid; the company will keep pushing beyond it toward a much stricter, FAA-style federal AI regulator over time.

“this is just an opening bid for anthropic ... this will just be the stepping stone to get what Dario has now called for many times which is the FAA for AI” View on YouTube

Figma’s annually recurring revenue (ARR) will reach between $1.5 billion and $2 billion within roughly two years after the end of 2023 (i.e., by the end of 2025 or very early 2026).

“and then you figure you know within say two years after that they're going to be, you know, it's somewhere between one and a half and 2 billion of IRR.” View on YouTube

The U.S. Supreme Court will not overturn nationwide legal recognition of same‑sex marriage (i.e., Obergefell v. Hodges will not be reversed) in the foreseeable future following the 2022 Dobbs decision.

“I don't think gay marriage is at any risk of being overturned by the Supreme Court. Remember, it was Gorsuch who wrote that opinion.” View on YouTube

The global economy is heading into a recession beginning around late 2022, validating the FedEx CEO’s warning of a forthcoming global recession.

“I think what's going on here is that whatever the issues at Fedex, and no matter how overstated these warnings may have been, I think they're directionally correct. He's saying that the world is headed for a global recession, and directionally, he appears to be right.” View on YouTube

As hyperscalers stand up their own behind-the-meter power generation instead of drawing from the grid, this will ultimately bring down electricity rates for residential consumers.

“I think ultimately this will bring down rates for residential consumers for two reasons.” View on YouTube

Following Microsoft's pledge to pay its own way on data-center power and water costs, all the other major hyperscalers will follow with similar pledges.

“I think all the other hyperscalers will do that.” View on YouTube

Even if California's asset-seizure tax measure is defeated in 2026, a better-organized version backed by a broader coalition of unions will return on the 2028 ballot.

“if we defeat this in 26, it doesn't mean it's dead for good. It just means it's going to come back in a new form in 28, but with much more broad-based union support, all the unions are going to do it together.” View on YouTube

The odds of President Trump successfully acquiring Greenland for the US are significantly higher than the 17% implied by the Polymarket price at the time.

“I think the odds of him pulling this off are much greater than 17%.” View on YouTube

Around 5–6 months after mid‑April 2021 (i.e., by roughly September–October 2021, when the California gubernatorial recall election occurs), the U.S. economy will be booming again, COVID-19 will effectively be over as a major issue, and California voters will largely have forgotten Governor Newsom's earlier mishandling of vaccines.

“despite all of that, by the time we actually get around to the recall, which will be in about 5 or 6 months, uh, the recall election, you know, the economy is going to be booming again. COVID's going to be over. People will probably forget.” View on YouTube

If President Biden does not forcefully intervene to end the port labor constraints and move Los Angeles/Long Beach ports to true 24/7 operations, the resulting supply chain disruption will trigger a US recession within the next year (by late 2022).

“Look unless Biden is willing to listen I mean, Chamath, you're right that they're entitled to negotiate. But here's the thing. I mean, they're holding the whole country hostage now. They're holding the economy hostage. So at a certain point, if their demands are unreasonable, it's, I think, proper for the president of United States to step in and say, guys, this is ridiculous. You have to go back to work... unless Biden steps in to solve this, we will have a recession.” View on YouTube

China’s late‑2021 restrictions on coal usage that were constraining manufacturing will be rolled back quickly; they will not allow these clean‑energy‑motivated coal limits to persist long enough to cause a prolonged (multi‑year) shutdown of significant portions of their industrial economy.

“I suspect that China has woken up to this, and they will they're not going to shut down their economy because of concerns about clean energy. So I assume this is a very temporary decision.” View on YouTube

If supply chain bottlenecks and Covid‑related regulatory constraints are not substantially resolved, the US could experience a 1970s‑style stagflationary recession in 2022 (high inflation combined with stagnant or contracting real growth).

“unless it gets fixed, it could absolutely cause a 1970s style stagflation type recession next year.” View on YouTube

Given the 5%+ inflation rate reported in late 2021 and the emerging supply chain crisis, the US is on a trajectory that could produce a renewed stagflation episode (high inflation with weak growth) in the near term (within the next few years).

“We're at something like a 5.1% inflation rate... This is a recipe for stagflation. 2.0” View on YouTube

Within the upcoming Republican‑controlled Congress (i.e., during Trump’s new term beginning January 2025), Congress will enact FIT21 or substantially similar crypto legislation that clearly delineates when digital assets are commodities vs. securities, effectively ending the current SEC enforcement‑first approach under Gary Gensler toward crypto companies.

“I think with the Republicans now winning the Senate, the prospects for that bill to get enacted are now greatly improved... So look, the bottom line here is that I think that we are close to having clear rules of the road codified by Congress, which is what the crypto industry has been asking for, and the days of Gensler terrorizing crypto companies by issuing Wells notices without clarifying what the rules are that he's prosecuting. Those days are about to be over.” View on YouTube

During the next Trump administration (2025–2028), the U.S. government will, with high likelihood, initiate at least one significant antitrust action or formal investigation specifically aimed at structurally breaking up Google (e.g., separating search, advertising, and YouTube).

“So my view is that Google should be broken up... What are the odds that that happens? It's hard to say, but what are the odds that that is pursued in the next administration in some capacity or at least investigated? I'd say hi.” View on YouTube

By the second half of 2022, the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate will decline from its peak earlier in the year because of base effects, but cumulative CPI inflation over the first two years of the Biden administration (January 2021–January 2023) will total roughly 12–13%, and voters will still feel worse off, resulting in widespread negative sentiment toward the Biden administration going into the November 2022 midterm elections.

“the main reason inflation is going to go down in the second half of this year is because inflation is measured on a year over year basis... So as we sort of lap last year's inflation rate, we come up against, you know, you're copying against A 7.8% number last year, so I don't think inflation's going to get any better. We're probably looking at roughly a 12% you know official two year inflation number. So in other words since Biden took over as president you're looking at probably 12 to 13% of total inflation as measured by CPI. And that is why even though the headline number will come down later this year, I don't think the American people are going to feel any better about the situation... there's going to be a lot of negativity going into the November election for this administration.” View on YouTube

The US is headed into an economic slowdown with a high probability of entering a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth) toward the end of 2022.

“Let me make a prediction right now, if we're we're definitely headed into an economic slowdown. I don't know if it will meet the technical definition of recession, but very high... very high chance, I think, of recession. Like Thomas said towards the end of the year” View on YouTube

If the Russia–Ukraine war is still ongoing and the US enters a recession by late 2022, President Biden’s job approval will fall to levels comparable to or lower than Jimmy Carter’s worst approval ratings (roughly in the low- to mid‑20% range).

“if this war is still going on and we get in a recession, look out below. I think this president will be in Jimmy Carter territory.” View on YouTube

By the second half of 2022, the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate will decline from its peak earlier in the year because of base effects, but cumulative CPI inflation over the first two years of the Biden administration (January 2021–January 2023) will total roughly 12–13%, and voters will still feel worse off, resulting in widespread negative sentiment toward the Biden administration going into the November 2022 midterm elections.

“the main reason inflation is going to go down in the second half of this year is because inflation is measured on a year over year basis... So as we sort of lap last year's inflation rate, we come up against, you know, you're copying against A 7.8% number last year, so I don't think inflation's going to get any better. We're probably looking at roughly a 12% you know official two year inflation number. So in other words since Biden took over as president you're looking at probably 12 to 13% of total inflation as measured by CPI. And that is why even though the headline number will come down later this year, I don't think the American people are going to feel any better about the situation... there's going to be a lot of negativity going into the November election for this administration.” View on YouTube

The US is headed into an economic slowdown with a high probability of entering a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth) toward the end of 2022.

“Let me make a prediction right now, if we're we're definitely headed into an economic slowdown. I don't know if it will meet the technical definition of recession, but very high... very high chance, I think, of recession. Like Thomas said towards the end of the year” View on YouTube

If the Russia–Ukraine war is still ongoing and the US enters a recession by late 2022, President Biden’s job approval will fall to levels comparable to or lower than Jimmy Carter’s worst approval ratings (roughly in the low- to mid‑20% range).

“if this war is still going on and we get in a recession, look out below. I think this president will be in Jimmy Carter territory.” View on YouTube

In the November 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Democrats will be decisively defeated in a Republican landslide if they continue to focus their messaging on January 6th rather than voter-priority issues like inflation, the economy, COVID, crime, and schools.

“If you and the Democrats keep talking about this and focus on it on MSNBC to the exclusion of the issues that really matter. I'll see you in November because you're going to get slaughtered in this midterm election. It's going to be a landslide.” View on YouTube

The November 2022 U.S. midterm elections will feature a large Republican "red wave," and the magnitude of GOP gains will increase if Democrats continue to focus heavily on January 6th instead of bread-and-butter issues.

“If you want to focus on that, to the exclusion of the real issues facing the country, like I said, this landslide in November, this red wave is going to be even bigger.” View on YouTube

Over the roughly ten months following this January 2022 recording, if Democrats and MSNBC continue to emphasize January 6th coverage, the Republican "red wave" in the November 2022 midterm elections will be especially large.

“If you watch MSNBC, it's all January 6th all the time. And, you know, if Democrats are going to focus on this issue for the next ten months... This red wave in November is going to be an even bigger wave.” View on YouTube

If President Biden had prioritized it, a reform/clarification of the U.S. Electoral Count Act could have passed the Senate in this Congress (2021–2023) with at least 60 votes, i.e., with significant bipartisan support.

“Biden could have gotten 60 votes for that. You know, I think that was very doable.” View on YouTube

Legislation to ban or severely restrict insider trading by members of the U.S. Congress would be able to obtain a huge bipartisan majority in the current Congress (2021–2023), meaning support from large numbers of both Republicans and Democrats, if it were brought forward.

“Pelosi. But but but but yeah, I think it is something that would get a huge bipartisan majority.” View on YouTube

In the years following January 6, 2021, U.S. federal law-enforcement and security agencies will use public and political hysteria about the Capitol riot to justify and obtain expanded powers of surveillance and authority over American citizens.

“you should understand that the hysteria created around that event is going to be used. It's going to be exploited to demand these powers.” View on YouTube

If the United States imposes heavy, unnecessary regulations that significantly impede its AI companies’ competitiveness while China does not mirror these constraints, then China will win the global race for AI leadership over the ensuing years.

“And so if we hobble ourselves with unnecessary regulations, if we make it more difficult for our AI companies to compete, that doesn't mean that China is going to follow suit and copy us. They're going to take advantage of that fact and they're going to win.” View on YouTube

In the calendar year 2025, there will be a significant wave of commercially available AI 'agent' or 'agentive' products that can perform more autonomous tasks for users than current chat-style systems, representing a notable new product category.

“it's true that AI is about to get more powerful. You're going to see a whole new wave of what are called agents this year Agentive products.” View on YouTube

Within roughly one year from November 2021, Solana will surpass Ethereum in terms of developer activity (e.g., number of active developers/projects or similar developer-engagement metrics).

“their view is that Solana over the next year will flip Ethereum based on developer activity” View on YouTube

Sacks predicts that Xi Jinping is likely to attempt the annexation of Taiwan (forcible political unification with the PRC) before the end of his tenure as China’s leader.

“you'd have to say it's the annexation of Taiwan. I mean, that's the thing that he must be looking to do before you know his time to reunify China. That's the thing that could put him in that league.” View on YouTube

Sacks predicts that Apple will release AR glasses as a new computing platform opened to third‑party developers, and that this AR‑glasses product will be launched before Tim Cook retires as CEO of Apple.

“I wouldn't judge the Tim Cook era until we see what happens with glasses. Because this is the product that I hear is coming is going to be their, you know, their AR glasses. And that's going to be a new computing platform that they open up to developers. And I guess Cook's been there for what, a decade. But I think he doesn't want to retire until this comes out. And he can see this is going to be his signature product, I think.” View on YouTube

The frontier AI industry will consolidate into a monopoly or duopoly of roughly one to three dominant companies, operating alongside a new government regulatory agency that determines who gets access to AI capabilities.

“We're going to be stuck with somewhere between one and three companies, maybe two. There'll be a AI monopoly or duopoly and they're going to decide along with some new government agency who has access to what capabilities.” View on YouTube

Following the January 2024 U.S. and allied strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, the conflict in the Middle East will continue to escalate and ultimately lead to a larger war in which the United States and Israel directly go to war with Iran (no specific end-date given, but implied medium-term geopolitical trajectory).

“So I don't think this is going to have any impact other than to escalate the conflict in the Middle East and put us on a path to war with Iran… I think that's where this is all headed, is a larger war in the Middle East that features the US and Israel going to war with Iran.” View on YouTube

The January 2024 U.S.-led missile strike on Houthi targets in Yemen will fail to deter the Houthis from further attacks on shipping; Houthi disruption of Red Sea trade will continue despite the strike, at least over the ensuing months of 2024.

“So this missile strike last night is not going to deter them. It's not going to stop them. They're very determined, very tough fighters.” View on YouTube

The Yemen/Houthi-related conflict and broader Middle East tensions will produce at most a short-lived rally-around-the-flag effect for President Biden; if the conflict is still active by November 2024, Biden’s political standing going into the election will be weakened because he will appear to have lost control of events.

“I don't think wagging the dog is going to work. I think there'll be a short term rally around the flag effect. But I think that overall, if this conflict is still going on in November, it's going to weaken Biden by making him look like a president who's lost control of events.” View on YouTube

For calendar year 2024, the U.S. economy and markets will experience a "bumpy landing" rather than a smooth soft landing: volatility and economic/tightening shocks will undermine the late-2023 stock market rally and prevent a straight-line, low-volatility continuation upward.

“Yeah, my prediction for the year was bumpy landing. I thought soft landing was a little too optimistic, and I also thought that this big stock market rally that we had in November December was too much, too soon.” View on YouTube

In the months following this January 2024 discussion, attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria will continue rather than cease.

“Another thing I think we're likely to see in the Middle East is continued attacks on US military bases in Iraq and Syria.” View on YouTube

Conditional: If the Middle East conflict escalates into a wider regional war during 2024 that triggers an oil price shock, then the Federal Reserve will not implement the large interest-rate cuts that the market was pricing in as of late 2023; planned 2024 rate cuts would be delayed or canceled due to renewed inflation.

“If it develops into a wider regional war, then I think you could see an oil shock. And if there's an oil shock, I think you can kiss rate cuts goodbye, because that's going to percolate through the whole economy and have a big impact on inflation.” View on YouTube

Disney will fail to make a sufficient course correction away from politicized content in its franchises (including Star Wars) in the near future following 2023, and this failure will persist rather than being quickly reversed.

“So we'll just have to see. My sense is that they have not made the course correction they need.” View on YouTube

AI-driven job displacement will not manifest as a sharp two-to-three-year disruption; instead it will unfold gradually over a longer period, such that within 5 years (by around 2030) it will be clear whether large-scale, rapid job loss occurred or not.

“I don't think this is a two to three year time frame thing. This will be the debate of our lifetimes. I predict but look I mean if I'm wrong we'll find out in the next 5 years.” View on YouTube

The sharp impact of 2022 Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes on the U.S. construction industry will propagate to the broader U.S. economy with a lag of approximately 6–9 months, meaning broader economic weakness from this channel should be clearly visible by early-to-mid 2023.

“So the construction industry is really the bellwether. When a recession starts, they're the ones who are first impacted. But it's probably going to take 6 to 9 months.” View on YouTube

The U.S. is in a shallow technical recession as of Q2 2022 but will return to positive real GDP growth in either Q3 2022 or Q4 2022, followed by a renewed recession in 2023 as the 2022 Federal Reserve rate hikes fully impact the broader economy (with the lagged effects becoming evident roughly 6–9 months after the hikes).

“If I were to predict, I think what's going to happen now, I think look for a double dip. I wouldn't be surprised at all if in Q3 or Q4 we're back to positive GDP growth. But I don't think we're necessarily out of the woods because I think there's a pretty good chance that next year, these these rate hikes really kick in. It takes 6 to 9 months for them to ripple through the economy.” View on YouTube

As a result of the Mar-a-Lago raid, Republican support will rally around Donald Trump, making him very difficult to beat for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination; the likely eventual outcomes are that he either wins the presidency again in 2024 or is incarcerated, with little middle ground, unless the FBI produces ironclad evidence of significant wrongdoing that derails his candidacy.

“what the FBI has done with this raid, quite frankly, I think has polarized the outcomes. They are basically going to send Trump to the big House or the white House. I mean, because now the Republicans have rallied around Trump, I think he's going to be very, very hard to beat as the nominee in 2024 unless the FBI comes up with ironclad evidence to show that he did something significantly wrong.” View on YouTube

In the upcoming 2022 Georgia Senate runoff election (Warnock vs. Walker), Republicans will lose the runoff if Donald Trump continues his post‑2020-election style 'antics' and public behavior through the period leading up to the runoff.

“I think we're going to lose the Georgia runoff again if Trump continues with these antics.” View on YouTube

In the months following February 12, 2022, a US-based trucker convoy protest will form and physically drive to Washington, D.C. as a political demonstration.

“the response to that is now there's a trucker convoy getting started in the US. And they're going to march on Washington. They're going to drive to Washington.” View on YouTube

If President Biden does not respond in a way that David Sacks considers satisfactory to the emerging US trucker convoy protest between early 2022 and the 2024 election, Sacks predicts Biden’s presidency will effectively be finished (i.e., he will lose the 2024 election or be politically crippled by the issue).

“between now and then, Biden better figure out what he's going to be on, because if he doesn't handle this right, I think it's going to be the end of his presidency.” View on YouTube

If President Biden publicly embraces the US trucker convoy, calls for an end to Covid mandates, and announces a return to normalcy in early 2022, his job‑approval rating will rise by approximately 5–10 percentage points shortly thereafter (within a few months).

“His popularity would like bounce five points. Ten points. As if he did that.” View on YouTube

OpenAI (or comparable leading AI providers) will add video as a supported modality for their models after text, images, and audio, enabling multimodal input/output that includes video in the foreseeable future.

“The other thing is multimodal. I mean, so they're really stressing the idea of combining text with photos. I guess videos will eventually come later.”

In the weeks immediately following SVB’s shutdown in March 2023, probably thousands of startup companies that banked with SVB will be unable to make payroll because their funds are frozen in receivership.

“you're seeing probably thousands of companies now cannot make payroll in the next few weeks because their money is trapped and tied up at Silicon Valley Bank” View on YouTube

As a consequence of the SVB failure, potentially thousands of small venture-backed companies could be wiped out (fail or shut down) even though they did nothing operationally wrong.

“you're looking at maybe thousands of them just being wiped out for no reason” View on YouTube

If the Federal Reserve does not intervene over the weekend of March 11–12, 2023, there will be runs on US regional banks the following week, creating a cascading regional banking crisis similar in dynamic to 2008.

“I think that unless the fed steps in here over the weekend, we're going to see potentially a a run on the regional banking system, a cascade like we saw in 2008.” View on YouTube

Over the weekend of March 11–12, 2023, regulators will either arrange a takeover of SVB by a large bank such as J.P. Morgan (similar to Bear Stearns/WaMu), or, if they fail to do so, the banking and startup funding crisis will continue to cascade during the following week.

“either this weekend they place SVB in the hands of a JP Morgan. They do basically a Bear Stearns or a WaMu. They either do that this weekend or this thing keeps cascading next week.” View on YouTube

Depositors at SVB will not know their exact recovery or receive full distributions by Monday, March 13, 2023; instead, determining and paying out their cents-on-the-dollar recovery will take weeks or even months.

“it's not going to be on Monday. It could take weeks or months to figure out how many cents on the dollar you have.” View on YouTube

There is a significant risk that, due to political unpopularity of ‘tech,’ the government will not intervene in the SVB situation, in which case a series of failures (“dominoes”) and broader systemic financial risks will unfold afterward.

“there's a big risk here that precisely because tech is unpopular and people I think are confusing big tech with small tech, that the government doesn't step in here and the dominoes start falling and we start getting all the systemic risk playing out.” View on YouTube

If the U.S. federal government does not step in to protect depositors after the Silicon Valley Bank failure, then over the following months the U.S. regional banking system will be largely wiped out, effectively consolidating into roughly four remaining large ‘too big to fail’ banks.

“So I think there's a chance that if the federal government doesn't step in here, the whole regional banking system could be decimated, and you're just going to be left with four too big to fail banks.” View on YouTube

Following the Silicon Valley Bank failure in March 2023, there will be roughly a 60‑day freeze in venture deal-making activity, during which new investments and term sheet signings drop to minimal levels as VCs focus on supporting existing portfolio companies.

“Jacob, you tweeted that you think this is going to cause a 60 day freeze in, in deal making activity. I think that's more or less right.” View on YouTube

In the days and weeks after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March 2023, there is a significant risk that depositor flight will spread to other U.S. regional banks, causing substantial cash outflows and potential runs at multiple regional institutions.

“And I think there is a risk now of contagion spreading to these other regional banks, because people aren't sure. And there's already huge cash outflows leaving these other banks, because why take a chance?” View on YouTube

Not all major Chinese AI models will go from open-source to closed-source, despite reports that Chinese regulators may restrict overseas access to top models.

“I think there are a few Chinese models that were open source that have gone closed source, but I don't think they're all. I'd be surprised, let's put it that way, if they all went closed.” View on YouTube

Historians looking back on 2020 will judge the formal beginning and recognition of a new US–China "Cold War II" as the most historically important development of that year, surpassing other 2020 events in perceived long‑term significance.

“I think that the most newsworthy and historically important event will be the beginning of this and the recognition that we are now in Cold War two.” View on YouTube

TikTok will likely be prohibited from operating in the United States market (e.g., via a ban or forced shutdown of its US service) at some point following this July 2020 conversation.

“I think there's a very good chance that they will get shut down in the US.” View on YouTube

If the United States fails to make an unambiguous, credible security commitment to defend Taiwan, China will exploit that perceived hesitation by taking more aggressive actions against Taiwan (potentially including attempts to coerce, blockade, or annex it).

“I think we have to be extremely clear that Taiwan is a red line for us, and that we're committed to the security of Taiwan, because if we show any hesitation or weakness there, they will they will seize on that.” View on YouTube

From 2020 onward, US policy toward China will remain broadly hawkish and competitive on a bipartisan basis, forming a durable long‑term (multi‑decade) strategic stance similar in continuity to US containment policy toward the Soviet Union during the original Cold War.

“it does seem like finally, as a country, I think we are kind of getting our act together on China.” View on YouTube

US schools that reopen in fall 2020 with pod-based safety plans will shut back down soon after, once even a single COVID-19 case appears, because the fear of a child or teacher dying will trigger an overreaction.

“they'll do all this plan a there'll be all these like pods and half days ... and then somebody's gonna [get a case] and then all of a sudden they're gonna shut down again” View on YouTube

Maintaining a low-visibility, low-comment ‘basement’ strategy through the 2020 campaign will continue to be effective for Joe Biden, sustaining or increasing his lead over Donald Trump up through the election.

“Biden Biden's strategy is working... his strategy is basically to say nothing to be, you know, to hide in his basement... but it's working because even though he's a cipher... he's basically a protest vote against Trump.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump’s only viable path to winning the 2020 election is to successfully persuade a large share of voters that electing Joe Biden would lead to extreme outcomes such as toppling American founding symbols (e.g., Mount Rushmore) and dismantling capitalism; absent that framing, he will likely lose.

“the way for Trump to win the election... is to to make the alternative to trump the destruction of Mount Rushmore... If Trump can somehow convince the American public that the election of Joe Biden means the ripping down of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln and and Mount Rushmore and the destruction of of capitalism, um, that is the way for him to win.” View on YouTube

If the Russia–Ukraine war continues for an extended period (multiple years) without resolution, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will face significant domestic political trouble attributable to economic pain from lost Russian gas and his alignment with U.S. policy on the war.

“So if this war drags on for a long time, I think Schultz might be in some political trouble precisely because he's gone along with the Americans on this.” View on YouTube

U.S. CPI year-over-year inflation, which was 6.8% for the latest reported month (November 2021), will soon reach approximately 7% on a year-over-year basis.

“then it went to 6.2. Now it's 6.8. Looks like it's headed to 7%.” View on YouTube

If, in late 2021 or early 2022, Senator Joe Manchin kills the Build Back Better bill and further large-scale fiscal stimulus is halted, then in calendar year 2022 the U.S. economy will experience a "massive relief rally" (substantial positive move in risk asset prices) and strong economic performance, and the Federal Reserve will not need to raise interest rates as aggressively as otherwise projected, resulting in a relatively soft economic landing rather than a sharp downturn.

“Manchin would do Biden the biggest favor by just putting a bullet in this build back better plan, because I actually think there'd be a massive relief rally and the economy would take off like a rocket next year. If you just got government out of the way, they have printed enough. The best thing that could happen is they stop this pumping and stimulus, and then the fed doesn't have to raise rates as aggressively next year. And we could let things have more of a soft landing as opposed to the sudden austerity, which is whipsawing the economy.” View on YouTube

Following the 30–40% correction in late-2021 public-market valuations for growth and SaaS stocks, private venture valuations will also decline in response to those public comps, with the effect beginning to appear in venture deal pricing in the subsequent period after this episode (late 2021 onward).

“We've already seen in the past five weeks, we've seen 30 to 40% correction in the public markets for growth stocks and SaaS companies. That is absolutely going to trickle down to venture valuations. I think it already has.” View on YouTube

By the end of April 2020, public debate in the US will broadly shift from immediate COVID-19 triage to the question of how and when to reopen the economy and exit lockdowns.

“the big question that everyone is going to be asking by the end of April is what now?” View on YouTube

A COVID-19 vaccine will take at least 18 to 24 months to arrive (putting availability no earlier than roughly October 2021), and until then the US economy will not return to 100% of its pre-pandemic level, with about two years of continued difficulty ahead.

“in the absence of a vaccine which looks like at best 18 to 24 months from now we will never get to a hundred percent” View on YouTube

If the COVID-19 health crisis lasts longer than a few months, the Fed and Treasury's efforts to plug the resulting hole in the economy will fail, triggering a cascade of corporate defaults and bankruptcies.

“the result is going to be a cascade of defaults and bankruptcies and effectively a great unraveling of our economy” View on YouTube

Joe Biden will remain the Democratic nominee for U.S. president in 2020 and will not be replaced at the top of the ticket unless he experiences a serious health emergency.

“Barring a Biden health emergency. I mean yeah I mean he is yeah. He's you know not a spring chicken.” View on YouTube

In the near term (spring–summer 2020), the primary U.S. political debate will center on strategies and timing for exiting COVID-19 quarantines and lockdowns, rather than on whether to impose them.

“I think the next big political debate is, is going to be around this. What now? You know? Yes, the quarantines have arrested the exponentiality of the virus, but how do we get out of them?” View on YouTube

If the U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19 is V-shaped (rapid return to prior levels) before the November 2020 election, Donald Trump will very likely win re-election (be a “shoo-in”).

“I agree, I agree with Thomas that if if this ends up being V-shaped, um, Trump is a shoo in.” View on YouTube

Europe will experience both an economic crisis and a political crisis, driven by a conflict between citizens’ basic needs (economic stability and affordable heating, especially over winter 2022–2023) and political leaders’ commitment to continuing a proxy war against Russia instead of pursuing diplomacy.

“So I think we're headed for not just an economic crisis, but a political crisis in Europe, because the fundamental tension between the needs of these people, which is to basically preserve their economy and to stay warm in their homes, and the ideology of their leaders who are fanatically committed to waging a proxy war against Russia instead of finding a diplomatic outcome that was available last year, it was available in January. It was even available in March or April.” View on YouTube

Tucker Carlson’s show on Twitter will continue to accumulate views beyond the 17 million reported for the first day of his initial episode, achieving larger ongoing distribution on Twitter than he had on Fox News.

“So probably ten video yesterday was at 17 million views or something like that. So I'm sure it's more today. So no, he's getting huge distribution through Twitter.” View on YouTube

Catastrophic AI ‘doomer’ scenarios (e.g., mass displacement or existential-risk events) will not materialize suddenly in the very near term; instead, disruptive AI impacts will unfold more gradually over a longer period.

“So one is I think there's a lot of AI fear porn out there right now. And I just think that, like, all of these tumor scenarios are they're not going to play out overnight. I mean, this is going to take a while.” View on YouTube

Radiology as a medical specialty will be heavily disrupted or partially automated by AI, making it a poor career choice, but the broader medical profession (doctors in general) will remain viable and in demand.

“So for example, I wouldn't want to be a radiologist right now, but doctors will be fine.” View on YouTube

Long-haul truck driving jobs will be significantly reduced or threatened by self-driving technology, but transportation and logistics companies as a sector will continue to exist and operate.

“Like, I wouldn't want to be a truck driver either, you know, because of self-driving. But transportation companies are still going to exist.” View on YouTube

Legal and accounting professions are broad and general enough that AI will not eliminate these job categories; lawyers and accountants will continue to be needed.

“They're sufficiently general that I don't think they're going to be eliminated.” View on YouTube

As AI tools improve, lawyers and accountants will become more productive (able to complete more work), but this productivity gain will not necessarily translate into a reduced total number of lawyers or accountants employed; demand will expand with capacity.

“They may be able to get more done. Yeah. I would expect them to be able to get more done. Yeah. But I don't think necessarily think that means we'll need less of them.” View on YouTube

A strong 'Trump boom' economy (low inflation, strong GDP growth, falling mortgage costs, rising wages) will be 2026's biggest political winner, with GDP growth around 5% and further Fed rate cuts by June.

“i'm gonna say that the trump boom is going to be the biggest political winner of 2026 ... i'm going to go for 5%” View on YouTube

Democratic centrism will be 2026's biggest political loser, as the party's base and even moderates shift further left due to a lack of competitive districts and fear of primary challenges from the left.

“i said democratic centism or democratic centrist ... this is not a good trend” View on YouTube

When Joe Manchin retires from the U.S. Senate, the West Virginia Senate seat he currently holds will flip to the Republican Party in the subsequent election.

“West Virginia, unlike Arizona, is like a plus 22 red state. Joe Manchin is the only politician in that state who could win that seat for the Democrats. When Joe Manchin retires, that seat is going Republican.” View on YouTube

Solana, then the #8 cryptocurrency by market cap, will rise to approximately the #3 position in overall cryptocurrency market capitalization at some future point, even if it does not overtake Ethereum.

“there's a lot of people, I'd say smart money in Silicon Valley who are betting on a flippening where Solana could ultimately overtake Ethereum as the preferred platform. But even if it doesn't overtake Ethereum, you know it's the number eight cryptocurrency right now. You know, it could go. There's a lot of people betting it'll go to number three or you know, what have you.” View on YouTube

Following the Haugen whistleblower episode (as of October 2021), U.S. and/or other government agencies will initiate formal actions against Facebook that will result in financial settlements, with Facebook paying fines in order to resolve these actions.

“This whole thing is just getting started. There are going to be they're going to be government actions, and there will be settlements from those government actions. And the and Facebook, as you well know, will pay any kind of fine to put this behind them.” View on YouTube

The Russia-Ukraine war, focused on the Donbas and disputed eastern territories, will continue in some active or simmering form for most or all of Joe Biden’s presidency (through January 2025), rather than ending quickly in 2022.

“I think it's going to go on for a long time. That's what General Milley testified. It could go on for years. I think it's going to become a sort of permanent feature in the background of Biden's presidency.” View on YouTube

Representative French Hill will introduce a new version of his FIT 21-style digital asset market structure bill in the U.S. House of Representatives within a few weeks of this podcast’s recording (i.e., by roughly early April 2025).

“So we expect that he will be introducing a new version of his bill, probably in the next few weeks.” View on YouTube

Future digital asset market-structure legislation (a successor to FIT 21) will include disclosure requirements such as insider token holdings and issuance mechanics, and independently, the U.S. SEC will establish its own regulatory frameworks for crypto asset disclosures and market structure following its current rulemaking review, though no specific completion date is given.

“And by the way, I think the market structure bills will do that. There's a version of this in fit 21 last Congress. I think it'll be the next one. And moreover, the SEC is looking right now at these rules and they're going to create their own frameworks.” View on YouTube

Calendar year 2022 will be characterized by a major correction in high-growth and tech-related asset prices (a sustained downward repricing versus 2020–2021 levels).

“I predicted and you guys had similar predictions on just a few weeks ago that this would be the 2022, would be the year of the correction.” View on YouTube

Due to the Federal Reserve’s tightening stance as of early January 2022, the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession at some point during calendar year 2022 is substantially elevated compared to prior expectations.

“I think there's actually like a much greater risk now of the economy going into recession this year because of the Fed's overreaction this week.” View on YouTube

SpaceX's Starlink business alone could be worth a trillion-dollar market cap within roughly 18 months to 2 years.

“The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within 2 years, within 18 months, let's say.” View on YouTube

Airtable will eventually conduct an IPO, and that IPO will be well‑received by the market (i.e., it will price and trade at a valuation that can be described as a "nice" outcome, not a disappointment). No specific date is given, but the expectation is in Airtable's next liquidity event window (next several years).

“And I think it'll have a nice IPO at some point when they decide they want to do it.” View on YouTube

If the U.S. political system does not adopt serious measures to reduce federal budget deficits, then over the coming years long-term interest rates (e.g., 10-year Treasury yields) will remain elevated even if inflation falls and the Federal Reserve cuts short-term policy rates, which in turn will keep the overall cost of capital high and depress long-term innovation and investment in the U.S. economy.

“unless the political system gets serious about reducing deficits, even if inflation comes down, and even if the fed cuts short term rates, you're going to have a problem with long term rates remaining high. And that is going to keep the cost of capital high. And that is going to reduce long term innovation in the economy.” View on YouTube

For U.S. fiscal year 2023, total migrant encounters at the U.S. southern border will reach a new all-time annual record, exceeding the prior high of approximately 2.7 million encounters in 2022.

“given that we've eliminated remain in Mexico and title 42. I don't think anybody seriously doubts that we're headed for a new record.” View on YouTube

The U.S. Supreme Court will not overturn the constitutional right to same‑sex marriage or the constitutional protections related to contraception; no national legal regime outlawing contraception will emerge.

“So I just don't buy this idea that now we're going to be overturning gay marriage, that we're going to be overturning, like, for example, contraception. I just don't buy it. Why? Because nobody in the country is arguing for outlawing contraception.” View on YouTube

There remained, as of May–June 2022, a possible outcome in which Chief Justice Roberts would secure one additional vote to uphold Roe v. Wade while simultaneously modifying it to permit restrictive state laws such as Mississippi’s 15‑week ban.

“So let's assume that this is the decision. By the way, it's still possible that Roberts could peel off a vote, and then we would get a scenario in which Roe is upheld while modifying it to allow, you know, laws like the Mississippi law.” View on YouTube

If Roe v. Wade is overturned along the lines of the leaked Alito draft, Democrats in Congress will attempt to codify Roe in federal law, but that effort will fail because they will not obtain the votes needed to overcome or eliminate the Senate filibuster; thereafter, abortion policy will default to state control.

“What that will mean is then, like Tom said, we'll have a vote in Congress. The Democrats will see if they can basically uphold Roe by through a law which Biden would then sign. I think the issue there is they have to get enough votes to break the filibuster, and I don't know if they're willing to do that. So let's assume that fails. Then it goes to the states.” View on YouTube

Following a decision overturning Roe v. Wade, roughly half of U.S. states (around 25, mostly blue) will see little or no change in abortion access; in about 12 states with trigger or pre‑existing restrictive laws, substantial restrictions or bans will immediately take effect; and in approximately 12–13 remaining purple states, abortion policy will become a major contested issue and legislative battleground.

“So right off the bat, let's say in about half the states, 25 of them or so, I don't think there's going to be a change in about 12 states. These restrictions that are already on the books are going to go into effect, and then we're going to have about 12 or 13 states that become battlegrounds, um, purple states basically.” View on YouTube

In the post‑Roe environment, state-level politicians who adopt abortion positions aligned with the median voter in their states (rather than absolutist positions) will gain electoral advantage over time.

“I think where this will go is, I think politicians who figure out where the center is and figure out where most of the people in their state are, are the ones who are going to benefit.” View on YouTube

In states where abortion policy becomes contested after Roe is overturned, politicians who support abortion bans without exceptions for rape and incest will be electorally punished by voters.

“if the pro-life side refuses to make compromises for, say, rape and incest, they're going to be punished by voters in those states.” View on YouTube

Politicians in either party who maintain absolutist, no‑compromise positions on abortion in the post‑Roe legislative battles will tend to lose elections relative to those who compromise.

“And if the absolutists in both parties refuse to do that, I think they're going to lose elections.” View on YouTube

If the Republican Party adopts a no‑compromise stance on abortion (e.g., opposing rape and incest exceptions), it will not replicate recent broad electoral successes such as Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 Virginia gubernatorial win; instead, it will face voter backlash.

“if the parties don't compromise on this, voters will eventually punish them. I mean, I don't think you're going to see, um, you know, Glenn Youngkin like victories by the Republican Party if they brook no compromise on, for example, the issue of, you know, rape and incest.” View on YouTube

The U.S. Supreme Court will not overturn Obergefell v. Hodges, and same‑sex marriage will remain constitutionally protected.

“I don't think Obergefell is going to get overturned. I just don't see it.” View on YouTube

Had the Supreme Court recognized a right to same‑sex marriage in the early 1990s, it likely would have triggered the passage of a federal constitutional amendment banning same‑sex marriage (a counterfactual historical prediction).

“if the Supreme Court had basically taken up the issue then and found a right to gay marriage, we might have had a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage by now” View on YouTube

The U.S. Supreme Court will neither overturn major precedents on same‑sex marriage and interracial marriage nor grant certiorari to directly hear challenges seeking to overturn those decisions.

“Right. But I don't think the Supreme Court is going to overturn those other cases. I'd just be shocked. I don't even think they will take those challenges up.” View on YouTube

Over the next 6 months to a year (roughly through early-to-mid 2027), Kevin Worsh as Fed Chair will push to cut interest rates.

“I do think that Worsh has been consistent for the last year, saying the Fed was taking too long to realize that inflation is falling and that they should be cutting more. So, I do think that over the next, say, 6 months to a year, he's going to want to cut rates.” View on YouTube

In the November 2022 U.S. House midterm elections, Republicans will gain on the order of roughly 44–51 seats relative to their 2020 House seat count, easily surpassing the five-seat swing needed to win a majority in the House of Representatives.

“Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report calculates somewhere between a 44 and 51 seat gain from the GOP. They only need five seats to win the majority, so it's looking very bleak for the Democrats in 2022.” View on YouTube

The 2020s will be a "Republican decade" in U.S. politics, meaning Republicans will generally dominate federal elections (Congress and/or the presidency) throughout roughly 2021–2030.

“I think this could be a Republican decade.” View on YouTube

Following the November 2021 elections, Republican politicians and media figures will rapidly (within months, i.e., by mid-2022) stop claiming that U.S. elections are rigged or stolen and largely drop 2020-election-fraud rhetoric.

“That's going to that's going to stop now too. They're going to stop talking. ... It's going to stop overnight.” View on YouTube

After the November 2021 elections, the pending federal infrastructure bill (the bipartisan infrastructure package) will pass Congress quickly and easily, without serious further obstruction from progressives.

“I think, I think what's going to happen in the wake of this election is that this infrastructure bill is going to sail through because one of the crazier things that the progressives were doing was holding that bill hostage.” View on YouTube

If President Biden continues to let Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren effectively dominate the Democratic domestic policy agenda through 2022, Democrats will lose approximately 40–50 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections.

“if Biden insists on allowing Bernie to dominate the agenda. And Warren, I think you're going to see 40 to 50 seat losses by the Democrats in 2022.” View on YouTube

U.S. unemployment, at about 6% in early March 2021, will fall to approximately 3–4% within two quarters (by around September 2021).

“We're already down to 6% unemployment. We're going to be down to, I'd say probably 3 or 4% in two quarters.” View on YouTube

By the end of May 2021, there will be sufficient supply (about 300 million doses) for every American over age 16 who wants a COVID-19 vaccine to be able to receive one.

“Biden announced that every American who's over the age of 16, who wants a vaccine will be able to get one by the end of May, by the end of May. I mean, we're going to have 300 million doses.” View on YouTube

If vaccination is not administratively hindered, by Memorial Day 2021 the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. will effectively be over as a pandemic (though sporadic cases will continue), i.e., no longer a large-scale public health emergency.

“If the government would just get out of the way, let everyone who wants to get a vaccine get one without worrying about making sure the exact right person and the exact right line gets one first. This thing will be over by Memorial Day. Over. Now, look, there'll still be a case here or there. For sure there'll be. I'm not saying there'll be zero cases of Covid, but there will be zero pandemic understood as such.” View on YouTube

By June 2021, COVID-19 will no longer function as a pandemic in the U.S., but the virus will persist and recur thereafter as a seasonal illness.

“Covid as a pandemic is going to be over by June. Okay. But there will always be cases of Covid. It's going to return as a seasonal illness.” View on YouTube

Government proposals for digital vaccination passports will fade away quickly once the COVID-19 pandemic period ends (i.e., they will not persist long-term after mid‑2021).

“I just think proposals like this are I think they're going to fade away very quickly once Covid is over.” View on YouTube

By June 1, 2021, COVID-19 vaccines will be sufficiently available in the U.S. that there will no longer be a public-health justification for emergency government powers such as lockdowns and mask mandates; at that point, such measures will not be needed.

“Once everyone can get the vaccine. And I think that would...Availability. So I mean, look what we should say and it will be available as long as, you know, governors like Newsom get out of the way and stop restricting the administration of it. But I think we need to declare a date certain where we say, listen, on June 1st, there is no more justification for government having these extraordinary powers to lock us down to require us. I don't think we even need to wear a mask beyond June 1st.” View on YouTube

The Gavin Newsom recall petition in California will surpass 2 million signatures by roughly two weeks from early March 2021 (the end of the signature period), with a validation rate of about 84%, leading to a certified recall election to be held around August 2021.

“They're up to 1.95 million signatures...They will be at or over 2,000,000 in 2 weeks, which is the end of the signature period. Their validation rate is about 84%. So I think this is clearly going to pass. There will be a recall election. It will be around August.” View on YouTube

By summer 2021, most other U.S. states will have substantially reopened while California will still be relatively restricted under Governor Newsom—likely without a full agreement to reopen schools with teachers unions—and this perceived laggard status and over‑restrictiveness will become a central issue in the Newsom recall election.

“I think what you could see by this summer is that California will look like a laggard. You'll see that politicians like Newsom are holding on to the zero list philosophy. They're being too restrictive. They look ridiculous compared to other states. And he still probably won't have an agreement with the teachers unions to go back to school. And I think this could become the big issue in the in the recall.” View on YouTube

There will be a recall election for California Governor Gavin Newsom, held approximately around August 2021.

“Newsom is definitely there's going to be a recall election. I think it'll be around August.” View on YouTube

The progressive district attorney of Los Angeles County (George Gascón), the district attorney of San Francisco (Chesa Boudin), and California Governor Gavin Newsom will all end up being successfully recalled from office following the then-ongoing efforts circa early 2021.

“you have this Da who's going to get basically recalled in Los Angeles. You have a D.A. that's going to get recalled in California. You have an entire, you know, governor of the state that's going to get recalled.” View on YouTube

Gavin Newsom will be successfully recalled as California governor, with rising crime and problems in education being key drivers of voter support for the recall.

“Look, this is why Newsom's going to get recalled is because crime and education are just fundamental issues.” View on YouTube

In 2024, Russia under Vladimir Putin will consolidate its territorial gains in Ukraine and may make additional gains; the widely reported 'stalemate' narrative will be shown to be false as Russia is perceived to be winning, and Western support for 'Project Ukraine' will significantly unravel during 2024.

“I think that 2024 will be a year of him consolidating gains in Ukraine, potentially making new gains. I think that the the stalemate narrative that our media has propagated about Ukraine will be exposed as a lie. I think the Russians are, in fact, winning that war... And I think as Project Ukraine falls apart in 2024, it's only going to reinforce that sense that he's the big winner.” View on YouTube

In 2024, the 'collective West' (US and allies) will be a major political loser: Israel will fail to achieve its stated objective of destroying Hamas in Gaza and will face growing international condemnation bordering on pariah status; and there will be significant electoral upsets in Europe (notably in the European Parliament) and likely in the US, reflecting declining Western cohesion and strength.

“I up leveled my answer a little bit here to have the collective West as the biggest political loser, and Ukraine is a big part of that... you look at what's happening in Israel and Gaza right now, and I don't think that Israel's invasion of Gaza is going well at all. And again... It does not look like they're going to be able to militarily achieve their objective of destroying Hamas... Israel is facing, I think, a huge amount of condemnation internationally. It is becoming a bit of a global pariah... And then you're going to have a whole bunch of elections this year, both in the US and in Europe. I think that there's going to be tremendous disruption... I think there's going to be some big shakeups in the European Parliament, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was similar shakeups in the US election as well.” View on YouTube

In 2024, Anduril—specifically its Roadrunner drone‑interceptor system—will become one of the biggest business winners in defense tech, gaining meaningful adoption as a cost‑effective counter‑drone solution for ground‑based air defense.

“I'm predicting [Anduril] and role for its Roadrunner product... The reason I say this is because... the US was having to use $2 million air defense missiles to shoot down 2000 drones, and that is not sustainable.” View on YouTube

In 2024, Germany’s economy will significantly underperform relative to peers and be one of the biggest economic losers, hurt by the loss of cheap Russian gas and intensified competition from cheap Chinese cars.

“My prediction for biggest business loser in 24 is actually the German economy... I think double whammy for Germany.” View on YouTube

Around the March 2024 expiry of the Bank Term Funding Program, the Federal Reserve will either extend BTFP or implement a successor facility that continues to provide special liquidity support to US regional banks.

“My biggest business deal is whatever the fed decides to do to replace or extend the bank term funding program... it was only supposed to last for one year... I do not think that the balance sheets of regional banks are healthy enough to survive without this continued liquidity... So I think the Fed's going to have to do something to either replace the program, extend the program, they're going to have to do something.” View on YouTube

Contrary to late‑2023 market euphoria, 2024 will not be a smooth 'soft landing'; instead the US and global economy and markets will experience significant volatility and setbacks, making the soft‑landing path 'very bumpy' even if a technical recession is avoided.

“My prediction for for this year is that the soft landing gets very bumpy... I just think that this year is going to be a lot bumpier than that, both politically and economically.” View on YouTube

In 2024, energy—particularly oil and energy‑related stocks—will rank among the top‑performing major asset classes, driven by heightened geopolitical conflict and supply‑disruption risks.

“My guess here, just a guess is energy is energy stocks. Energy prices could be among the top performers of 2024. Just because there's so much risk of conflict breaking out now and escalating.” View on YouTube

In calendar year 2024, energy stocks and energy prices (especially oil) will be among the top‑performing asset classes, with a significant spike in the price of oil driven by geopolitical conflict.

“My guess here, just a guess is energy is energy stocks. Energy prices could be among the top performers of 2024... there's just so many ways that the conflict could escalate and create, I think, a spike in the price of oil.” View on YouTube

During 2024, the S&P 493 (S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent Seven) will outperform the Magnificent Seven stocks on a relative basis (a long S&P 493 / short Magnificent Seven spread trade will be profitable).

“I would bet against The Magnificent Seven... I would book this as a spread trade where I would bet on the S&P 493 over The Magnificent Seven. Because, again, I just think that there's got to be some catching up here.” View on YouTube

Over the next 5–10 years starting in 2024, AI capabilities will continue to improve at an exponential‑like pace, with AI‑driven innovations increasingly reaching and being used by mainstream consumers.

“When we look back on it in 5 or 10 years, it's going to be pretty clear that the exponential pace of advancement in AI continued... and I think we'll see those innovations continue to percolate down to more and more of the average sort of mainstream consumer.” View on YouTube

Grok 5 will be trained on the largest cluster of Nvidia Blackwell chips, giving it a compute advantage as Elon Musk continues scaling xAI's Colossus data centers.

“he had Colossus one, now he's got Colossus 2, and that portends good things for Grock 5. He's going to be trained on the largest cluster of Blackwells.” View on YouTube

Starting in late 2022, the U.S. economy is entering a sharp, economy‑wide slowdown that will deepen into a significant recession rather than a mild or brief dip.

“it feels to me like the economy is headed off a cliff right now... this is just, I think, an economy wide slowdown.” View on YouTube

As of November 2022, the U.S. is at the start of a prolonged period (multiple quarters) of rising unemployment and is entering a “really serious” recession, deeper and more sustained than the brief technical recession seen earlier in 2022.

“So I think we're at the beginning now of a long cycle of the unemployment rate going up. I mean, it just feels like the economy is slowing so fast... it just feels like this is the beginning of a really serious recession.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2023, the U.S. unemployment rate will have risen from the low‑3% range (where it was in late 2022) to approximately 5–6%, driven by accumulating job cuts across the economy.

“you're starting to see economists say we're going to go from three point something percent unemployment rate to say, 5 or 6% unemployment next year. So I think we're just beginning to see the the job cuts start to add up.” View on YouTube

The recession that the U.S. is entering as of late 2022 will last on the order of two years (approximately through late 2024), rather than being a short downturn.

“You know, this recession probably will last about two years. You want to make sure you survive it.” View on YouTube

In the November 8, 2022 U.S. midterm elections, there will be a broad 'Republican wave' in which Republicans significantly outperform Democrats across federal races, beyond just narrowly winning one chamber.

“Well, it looks to me like there's going to be a Republican wave.” View on YouTube

In the November 8, 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Republicans will gain control of both chambers of Congress, picking up roughly four net U.S. Senate seats (specifically winning in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and New Hampshire) and approximately 31 U.S. House seats.

“you have now real clear politics currently has the GOP gaining four Senate seats. So winning in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and New Hampshire... and winning 31 House seats. So this is this is kind of what it's looking like right now... Ultimately, I think this breaks Republican.” View on YouTube

In the November 8, 2022 midterm elections, Republicans will almost certainly win control of the U.S. House of Representatives, and there is roughly a 55% likelihood that they will also win control of the U.S. Senate.

“The House will almost certainly go Republican. But I think the Senate now, the official percentages are 55% likely to tip Republican.” View on YouTube

If a Republican wave materializes in the November 8, 2022 elections, the U.S. Senate could end up around 55–45 in favor of Republicans, rather than a narrowly divided 51–49 split.

“you could just as easily end up with, you know, instead of it being a 51, 49 Senate, it could be 55, 45 because all these things could break the same way.” View on YouTube

In the 2022 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race decided on November 8, 2022, Republican Mehmet Oz will defeat Democrat John Fetterman and the seat will tip to Republicans.

“So I actually think for both reasons, Oz is going to win that. I think Fetterman is manifestly unqualified... So I think Pennsylvania will will, will almost certainly tip.” View on YouTube

In the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate race decided on November 8, 2022, the Republican candidate will win (the seat will be held by or flip to the Republican Party).

“Ohio is going Republican.” View on YouTube

In the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate race decided on November 8, 2022, the contest will be extremely close, but Republican Blake Masters will ultimately win.

“I think that Arizona is probably going to be the closest race in the country. I think it's going to be a nail biter, but I think Blake's going to pull that out.” View on YouTube

Following the 2022 midterm elections and for the remainder of Joe Biden's term (2023–2024), the U.S. will have divided government with Republicans controlling Congress and Democrats holding the presidency, resulting in legislative gridlock. Large-scale federal spending increases and aggressive money printing will stop, and Republicans in Congress will conduct multiple investigations, including into the federal Covid response.

“you're going to have divided government. The Republicans will will control Congress, the Democrats will control the presidency. And so as a result, you're going to be largely in a gridlock situation. But gridlock may be a lot better than what we've had over the last couple of years. So you've had basically this orgy of spending and money printing. And I think that's going to stop. Obviously, the other thing that's going to happen is Republicans may not be able to pass much legislation, but they're going to be able to do investigations.” View on YouTube

As a result of Western policy around the Ukraine crisis, Russia will be pushed into a long‑term, durable strategic alignment with China, reducing the likelihood of Russia re‑aligning with the West in the foreseeable future.

“it's, uh, it's a transition that's happening mainly because of China. So we're in, you know, it seems like what we're doing is pushing Russia irrevocably into into his arms.” View on YouTube

In the November 2022 U.S. elections, the Democratic Party will perform poorly relative to expectations (e.g., losing significant ground), in part because of its stance on Covid restrictions and censorship, as reflected in shifting viewership of figures like Tucker Carlson among young Democrats.

“And this is why I think we're seeing. Tucker's Tucker is now the biggest demographic among young Democrats.... This does not bode well for them. On top of everything else that's happening in the country, this does not bode well for the Democrats in November.” View on YouTube

Miami will remain open for large in-person events (i.e., not subject to COVID-related shutdowns that would prevent a conference) during the period when the All-In hosts might schedule their summit in 2022.

“Wherever people aren't going to go to Rome, you know, Miami. The good thing about Miami is we know it'll be open no matter what, right?” View on YouTube

David Sacks assesses roughly greater-than-even odds (slightly over 50%) that Elizabeth Holmes will be convicted at her Theranos criminal trial.

“I think it's probably like a 50 over 50” View on YouTube

The Texas SB8 abortion law will be overturned in court (i.e., will not remain in force indefinitely).

“So they're pretty clear. This is going to get overturned.” View on YouTube

California Governor Gavin Newsom will comfortably defeat the September 2021 recall election effort to remove him from office.

“Gavin Newsom. The polling for him is now going through the roof, because all he has to do for the next ten days is talk about right to choose in this Texas bill. And he's going to cruise towards defeating the recall” View on YouTube

In a future case, the Texas SB8 abortion law will be ruled unconstitutional, primarily on grounds related to its standing/enforcement mechanism rather than on the underlying abortion right.

“I believe they will. I believe that this law will be found unconstitutional. Not necessarily because of abortion, but just because they're changing the legal definition of standing in a way that flies against everything we know about how the court system works.” View on YouTube

Apple and Google’s mobile operating systems will face antitrust and regulatory scrutiny analogous to what Microsoft Windows faced, including remedies targeting their platform gatekeeping behavior.

“So I just think that, you know, this is Microsoft and Windows all over again. Except there's two of them. Right. There's iOS and Android.” View on YouTube

Apple will eventually be forced (by regulation or market pressure) to allow sideloading of apps or alternative app stores on iOS devices.

“So I think that is coming for Apple.” View on YouTube

For calendar year 2023, the U.S. economy is more likely than it was a month earlier to experience a soft landing (continued growth without a formal recession), given the then-current labor market data.

“I'd say that relative to where we were a month ago, you'd have to say that the odds of us having a soft landing this year are quite a bit better than they were just a few weeks ago.” View on YouTube

As implied by the yield curve in early Feb 2023: (1) the Fed funds rate will peak within ~6 months at about 4.75–5.0% with at most one additional 25 bp hike; (2) over the subsequent two years, the Fed will cut rates by roughly 50 bps; and (3) over the long term, U.S. interest rates will stabilize around 3.5%, with no return to a near‑zero interest rate policy like in the 2010s.

“So basically the market is predicting we get maybe one more quarter point roughly not much. And then if you go to the two year it's at 4.09...what the market is actually predicting is that over the next two years, we're actually going to get a 50 basis point decrease from the fed. And then if you go to say the five year or the ten year, we're at 3.5%. So the market's basically saying that long term rates are going to stabilize at 3.5%. We're not going back to the abnormal zero interest rate policy...” View on YouTube

Over the coming years, public SaaS company valuations will not return to the extreme 2021 bubble levels (e.g., ~100x revenue) but will instead normalize around valuation multiples similar to those seen circa 2017.

“And that's why we're never going back to the bubble of 2021, where SaaS companies were trading at 100 times IRR. We're going to go back to an environment more like a more normal one, where valuations are more likely. The 2017 valuations, something like that.” View on YouTube

During the 3–4 years following early 2023, venture capital firms will deploy their existing funds at a pace roughly 3–4 times slower than in the prior few years, leading to significantly reduced annual investment volume per year compared to the 2020–2021 period.

“Yes. There's a record amount of money. Venture capital was raised over the last couple of years, but it's going to be deployed much more slowly and carefully over the next, say, 3 or 4 years, than it was over the previous few years. So divide that amount of money by 3 or 4, because the pace of deployment is going to go way down.” View on YouTube

Over the next several years after early 2023, it will be significantly harder to launch new VC funds, particularly solo capitalist, seed, and micro‑VC vehicles, and many of these small/hype-driven fund types will disappear from the market ('washed away').

“I think it's going to be much, much harder for new funds to get started. All of the, you know, hype around, you know, solo capitalists and you know, all these, you know, seed funds and micro VCs and all this kind of stuff. I think a lot of that's going to get washed away.” View on YouTube

In the second half of 2023 and throughout 2024, there will be a major funding crunch for startups: many companies that delayed fundraising will hit low cash levels and be forced to raise in a much tougher funding environment than in prior years.

“this tweetstorm is predicting, is that in the second half of 2023 and then 24, you're going to have a huge crunch where all these companies have to go out and raise. They've been waiting, so they're all going to get to the point where their cash is so low they have to go out and raise, and now all of a sudden they're going to be confronted with the new market conditions.” View on YouTube

In the second half of 2023 and throughout 2024, there will be a major funding crunch for startups: many companies that delayed fundraising will run low on cash, be forced back to market simultaneously, and then confront much tougher funding conditions, leading to widespread down rounds, recapitalizations, or shutdowns.

“This tweetstorm is predicting, is that in the second half of 2023 and then 24, you're going to have a huge crunch where all these companies have to go out and raise. They've been waiting, so they're all going to get to the point where their cash is so low they have to go out and raise, and now all of a sudden they're going to be confronted with the new market conditions.” View on YouTube

Startups that have venture debt as an overhang will discover, during the upcoming funding crunch (2023–2024), that their actual runway is shorter than planned because venture lenders will move to collect their debt before the startups fully run out of cash.

“Those ones. Yeah. And they're going to find they have less runway than they thought. Because again those banks you know, they are going to try and collect the debt before they start running out of money. Not, you know, when it runs out of money.” View on YouTube

In the second half of 2023 and in 2024, the startup ecosystem will experience widespread down rounds, restructurings, and recapitalizations as part of a major funding crunch.

“the crunch is going to happen second half of 2023 and 2024. That's where you're going to see the down rounds. That's where you're going to see the restructuring, the recaps and all the rest of it.” View on YouTube

SaaS public-market valuation multiples (enterprise value / next-12-months revenue) will eventually revert upward to roughly their long-term median of about 8x, but will stay well below the ~16x levels seen at the 2021 bubble peak.

“even if we revert all the way to the mean of eight, which I think at some point we will, that's still well below the bubble of 21 where they got to 16.” View on YouTube

Over the roughly 18–24 months following early February 2023 (i.e., through mid-2024 to early 2025), operating conditions will be very difficult for many startups, with significant stress such as layoffs, down rounds, or shutdowns.

“Yeah. There's going to be a lot of that I think the next 18 months or let's say the next two years, it's going to be pretty rough for a lot of companies.” View on YouTube

There is a high likelihood that the overall U.S. (or global) economy will enter a recession at some point later in 2023.

“I still think there's a really good chance of recession later this year, but it almost doesn't matter for you.” View on YouTube

For the foreseeable future beyond early 2023, capital availability for startups will remain structurally tighter and more constrained than it was in 2021, and will not revert to 2021-style easy funding conditions.

“What matters is your business and the capital availability for startups, which is fundamentally different and will remain different than it was in 2021.” View on YouTube

In the United States, following the emergence of Omicron, there will not be a return to broad COVID-19 stay-at-home lockdowns or widespread K–12 school closures at the state level, even if Omicron spreads widely.

“we're not going back to lockdowns. No matter what happens with this Omicron thing. We're not going to do school closures” View on YouTube

Subsequent retrospective analysis and public discourse following the Omicron wave will increasingly conclude that broad COVID-19 lockdowns were largely ineffective at stopping the virus, primarily delaying rather than preventing spread.

“what that does is admit, and I think what Omicron will show is that lockdowns didn't work at all” View on YouTube

From roughly 2022–2031, U.S. inflation will persist beyond what policymakers had called 'transitory', leading to rising interest rates and a decade in which public-market growth stocks, on average, perform worse than they did in the decade from ~2011–2020.

“Now it looks like we're moving into an environment in which inflation is certainly not transitory. We don't know how long it's going to last for. And that creates an expectation of interest rates are going to rise. And so the next decade may not be as good for growth stocks.” View on YouTube

Within the next few years after late 2021, public-market and late-stage private growth stocks will enter a bear or down cycle characterized by materially lower valuation multiples, causing significant mark-downs and negative shocks ('rude awakening') for younger founders and investors who have not previously experienced such a downturn.

“Keith and I just talked about how we're about to enter a very different kind of macro environment for growth stocks, and we don't know how long it's going to take, but there's no question that multiples and valuations are going to come down. And there's a lot of younger founders and investors who never lived through a bear market or a down cycle. And they're about to get a rude awakening.” View on YouTube

After Jack Dorsey’s resignation in late 2021, Twitter’s content-moderation and censorship practices will become more restrictive over the following years (e.g., more content and accounts limited or removed for speech reasons than under Dorsey’s tenure).

“I agree, I agree things are only going to get worse once he's gone.” View on YouTube

If Trump recovers from COVID-19 within about a week and appears physically strong, he will publicly claim that an effective cure already exists, downplaying the need for a vaccine and using this narrative to attempt to flip criticism and gain political advantage in the weeks before the 2020 election.

“I think if I think, politically speaking, I think there's a lot of upside here for Trump. If he does get better in a week. I mean, if these polyclonal antibodies work, then. And he emerges from the white House, you know, fit as a fiddle in a week, he's going to say, the cure is here. You know, I was right. You don't even need a vaccine. The cure is here. It's over. And, um, and all the I told you so's might might flip around.” View on YouTube

Trump has roughly a 50% chance of recovering from COVID-19 within about a week (which would help him politically), a 40% chance of a three-to-four-week case that would hurt his campaign by limiting rallies, and a 5-10% chance of a more serious outcome.

“i think the most likely outcome here is that because he's got the best care um he's you know it's it's probably like at least 50 that this is over for him in about a week” View on YouTube

Given Biden’s debate performance demonstrating basic mental competence and centrism, he will be more electorally successful in the 2020 general election than a more progressive Democrat such as Elizabeth Warren would have been in the same race.

“now that we know he's not senile, I think he's he is the the Democrats most electable candidate because he is more centrist than certainly an Elizabeth Warren or some of the other candidates that you mentioned.” View on YouTube

If Democrats win both the presidency and the Senate in 2020, the first roughly two years of the Biden administration will see the passage and signing of a substantial volume of legislation; if instead Republicans retain the Senate while Biden wins, legislative gridlock will prevail and the Biden presidency will be comparatively less consequential in policy terms.

“I think it will matter a lot if the Democrats win the Senate as well as the presidency, because then they will have one party control and they can pass much legislation as they want. And I think a lot of things will get signed. And I think the Biden presidency could be very consequential, at least for two years... If the Republicans hold on to the Senate, but Biden wins the presidency. I agree with you that it's not going to be a tremendously consequential election because we'll have gridlock and divided government again.” View on YouTube

If Democrats hold both chambers of Congress during a Biden presidency, Biden will generally sign into law the major legislation that a Democratic Congress passes, rather than frequently vetoing or blocking their agenda.

“I think at the end of the day, if the Democrats win Congress, he'll sign whatever they they pass.” View on YouTube

Trump's true odds of winning the November 2020 election are somewhat higher than the roughly 30% implied by betting markets at the time, given ongoing political turmoil.

“if i had to bet on that line i'd probably take the 30 underdog ... it's probably bigger than 30 percent” View on YouTube

Robinhood will successfully complete an IPO with a valuation in the roughly $50–70 billion range.

“And now they're going to be able to IPO at like a 50, 60, $70 billion valuation.” View on YouTube

In the upcoming 2021–2022 school year, many U.S. public schools (especially in places like California) will not offer full five-day-a-week in-person instruction under normal conditions. Instead, they will either fall short of full-time in-person learning or will impose stringent measures such as mandatory masking for children, strict social distancing, and segregating unvaccinated children (e.g., making them sit at separate tables).

“So I think you could be in a situation where we do not have they will call it school reopening, but we will not have five day a week in-person learning. And the schools, the public schools that have it are going to have all sorts of insane restrictions and conditions, like making kids who really aren't at risk for Covid, even even the Delta variant. They're going to force them to wear masks. They're going to enforce this ridiculous social distancing. They're talking about making the kids who aren't vaccinated sit at a separate table like the outcasts.” View on YouTube

In fall 2021, the Delta variant of SARS‑CoV‑2 will widely spread ("sweep through") in U.S. regions with low COVID‑19 vaccination rates, causing a substantial wave of cases there.

“It is going to, I think, sweep through areas of the country in the fall that aren't vaccinated.” View on YouTube

During the fall of 2021, the SARS‑CoV‑2 Delta variant will spread widely through parts of the United States with low vaccination rates, becoming prevalent in those under‑vaccinated regions.

“It is going to, I think, sweep through areas of the country in the fall that aren't vaccinated.” View on YouTube

Prosecutors will fail to flip Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg into providing incriminating testimony that leads to criminal charges against Donald Trump personally; Trump will avoid criminal liability arising from this particular New York tax‑perk case.

“they're trying to charge Westheimer, who's who's CFO, with basically receiving certain perks as compensation.” View on YouTube

As of the 2024 U.S. presidential cycle, Ron DeSantis will be the early frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

“DeSantis is definitely the early frontrunner.” View on YouTube

Ron DeSantis will win re‑election as governor of Florida in 2022 by a large margin (a "sweep to victory").

“now he's running for reelection in Florida in 2022. So that's on his plate. And but I think it looks like he's going to sweep to victory.” View on YouTube

Conditional on Ron DeSantis winning Florida’s 2022 gubernatorial election by a strong margin, he will become the de facto frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

“If he wins re-election in 2022 by a by a strong margin, I think he does become the putative frontrunner for 2024.” View on YouTube

Amazon’s petition to have FTC chair Lina Khan recused from antitrust matters involving Amazon will be denied; she will not be recused and will continue to oversee Amazon‑related cases.

“There's no way this is going to fly. There's no way she's going to get recused.” View on YouTube

During the current Congress (2021–2023), at least some of the six House‑passed bipartisan antitrust bills targeting large technology platforms will pass the U.S. Senate and be enacted into law, resulting in significant regulatory changes for big tech companies.

“It's a huge priority. There's six bills that just got passed in the House and it's going to the Senate. And I do think this is one of the areas where you could actually get some bipartisan agreement in the Senate… that says to me that legislation is likely I think it's going to go through. I think we are going to see some some big changes.” View on YouTube

In 2023, Xi Jinping will maintain or strengthen his grip on power even as conditions worsen for Chinese citizens and sectors like billionaires, tech, and real estate, and there could be negative financial contagion from China; overall, 2023 will not be a good year for China’s economy.

“I think I think the bigger risk is, is that China gets better for XI Jinping, but worse for everybody else in China... I think there could be contagion from China next year. I don't think she's going to lose his grip in any way, but I'm not sure China's going to have a good year next year.” View on YouTube

Over roughly the next year after this December 2022 episode (i.e., through 2023), the SaaS industry will experience a significant contraction in jobs and a vicious cycle in which customer seat counts shrink rather than grow.

“Either way, there's going to be a big contraction in jobs basically around this industry. And I think that what that could do is cause a vicious cycle where... for the next year or so where seat contraction becomes the norm instead of seat expansion.” View on YouTube

In 2023, many SaaS companies will start the year with only 80–90% of the prior year’s revenue from existing customers (due to layoffs and seat reductions), instead of the historical 120%+ net retention.

“So the baseline for next year could be contraction. So instead of starting with 120% of last year's revenue, you might start with 80 or 90% because there's going to be so much churn.” View on YouTube

During the current downturn period (approximately 2022–2023), achieving 2x year‑over‑year growth in a SaaS business will be as difficult and as impressive as achieving 3x growth was in the prior, more frothy years.

“If you can grow two x year over year in this environment, that is as good as or better than growing three x last year.” View on YouTube

From 2021 onward, U.S. taxes and government spending will increase substantially, peacetime deficits and national debt will remain at or move to new record-high levels, and in hindsight a future assessment will view 2021’s high rate of unicorn creation as a ‘golden era’ relative to a worse economic/innovation environment that follows.

“what I'm worried about is taxes are going up big time no matter what happens in Washington. Spending is going up big time. We now have peacetime deficits that are the biggest that they've ever been. The the the national debt, the peacetime national debt is the highest it's ever been...What I'm afraid of is we're going to look back at this year, the 1000 unicorns being minted and say, that really was the golden era. And everything happened after that. We really screwed up.” View on YouTube

The U.S. economy will experience a broad-based recession with a hard landing sometime in 2023, rather than achieving a soft landing.

“I think we're headed for a broad based recession. That's what it seems like. You saw Druckenmiller's comments this week predicting a hard landing in 2023. No one's talking about soft landing anymore.” View on YouTube

Stanley Druckenmiller’s central outlook, as endorsed and discussed by Sacks, is that over the ten years following roughly October 2022, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be approximately flat, trading at about the same level in 2032 as it did in late 2022.

“And his prediction now is his central outlook is that the Dow Jones will be in the same place where it is today in ten years.” View on YouTube

From October 2022 onward, the Russia–Ukraine war will continue to escalate rather than de-escalate, because key elements needed for a peace deal (e.g., Ukraine renouncing NATO membership, compromises over Donbas, restoration of energy flows/sanctions relief) have been removed.

“So I don't see how you're going to get a peace deal now. And so if you remove all the off ramps What's left? Escalation. Well, it seems to me this thing's just going to keep escalating.” View on YouTube

If a political/diplomatic resolution to the Russia–Ukraine war is reached, global equity markets will experience a sharp upward move ("take off like a rocket") shortly after that resolution is announced.

“Look, I can see the market taking off like a rocket if Ukraine gets resolved.” View on YouTube

The learning loss and social isolation from approximately a year of COVID-related school closures in the early 2020s may produce negative effects that persist across an entire generation of affected students (i.e., long-lasting impacts observable for decades).

“We had school closures for a year. The learning loss and the isolation that kids have experienced. We don't even know what the results of this are going to be. This could be a generational consequence.” View on YouTube

At some future point (no specific date given), the major U.S. tech platforms like Amazon, Google, Apple, and Facebook will be subjected to antitrust or similar regulatory actions that will break them up or significantly reduce their consolidated power.

“I agree with Chamath. I think I don't know exactly when, but I think these companies are going to get broken up and knocked down because they are too powerful.” View on YouTube

If the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive achieves a meaningful level of success (e.g., significant territorial gains against Russian forces), then within a few subsequent months Russia will respond by moving toward or declaring full mobilization and escalating the war to a higher level of violence and mobilization than seen prior to that success.

“I think this is going to put more pressure on Putin to conduct the war in a more violent way… I think he’s going to do whatever it takes to win this war. And I think you could see now, over the next few months, a full mobilization in Russia. And I think that this could lead us to the next point of escalation in this war. That is, if this Ukrainian counteroffensive actually is successful on some level… if this counteroffensive succeeds, you will see the next level of escalation.” View on YouTube

The industry-wide shortage of GPUs will persist for approximately 1–2 years from July 2023 (i.e., through at least mid‑2024 and possibly into mid‑2025), rather than materially easing sooner.

“GPUs are basically the scarce item right now, we have a GPU shortage, and it's probably not going to get better for a year or two if that.” View on YouTube

In the period after July 2023, there will be additional M&A activity in AI tooling and infrastructure, with acquired companies generally commanding high valuations relative to their current revenues, driven by strategic value to large infrastructure providers assembling end‑to‑end AI toolchains.

“I think for sure there's going to be more M&A, and I think the valuations will be high, not because these companies have a lot of revenue yet, but because it's very strategic for these big infra companies to assemble the end to end Toolchain.” View on YouTube

The existing crunch in late‑stage startup financing as of mid‑2023 will worsen over the following 18 months, i.e., through the end of 2024 (less capital available and/or on tougher terms for late‑stage rounds).

“there's a huge crunch in late stage financing. It's only going to get worse over the next 18 months.” View on YouTube

From roughly 2021 onward, major Hollywood studios and their content libraries acquired by large technology companies (e.g., Amazon, Apple, Google) will remain under big-tech ownership permanently, rather than being bought and sold every decade, and big tech will ultimately acquire and retain most of the remaining major Hollywood content libraries.

“we're reaching an end state of digital convergence, where the, um, where, where content and the digital distribution are now reaching their kind of final state. And so I don't expect these studios, once they're owned by big Tech, to ever go anywhere. And I don't think they're going to be trading again every ten years. I think this is the end state. Um, Amazon wants this library for their streaming service. And I think that big tech is going to gobble up the rest of these libraries, and that's where they're going to stay.” View on YouTube

Over time following 2021, large technology companies will acquire and control the majority of major Hollywood studios and their content output (i.e., "big tech will eat Hollywood").

“Yeah. I mean, I think I think I think big tech is going to eat Hollywood.” View on YouTube

Fed Governor Stephen Miran will leave the Federal Reserve and return to the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) around February or March 2026.

“Fed Governor Steven Myron, who came came from CEA, he'll be going back to CA probably in February or March” View on YouTube

Airtable will eventually conduct an IPO, and that IPO will be well‑received by the market (i.e., it will price and trade at a valuation that can be described as a "nice" outcome, not a disappointment). No specific date is given, but the expectation is in Airtable's next liquidity event window (next several years).

“And I think it'll have a nice IPO at some point when they decide they want to do it.” View on YouTube

If the U.S. political system does not adopt serious measures to reduce federal budget deficits, then over the coming years long-term interest rates (e.g., 10-year Treasury yields) will remain elevated even if inflation falls and the Federal Reserve cuts short-term policy rates, which in turn will keep the overall cost of capital high and depress long-term innovation and investment in the U.S. economy.

“unless the political system gets serious about reducing deficits, even if inflation comes down, and even if the fed cuts short term rates, you're going to have a problem with long term rates remaining high. And that is going to keep the cost of capital high. And that is going to reduce long term innovation in the economy.” View on YouTube

For U.S. fiscal year 2023, total migrant encounters at the U.S. southern border will reach a new all-time annual record, exceeding the prior high of approximately 2.7 million encounters in 2022.

“given that we've eliminated remain in Mexico and title 42. I don't think anybody seriously doubts that we're headed for a new record.” View on YouTube

Following the deplatforming of Trump in early January 2021, large tech platforms will continue to expand and exercise their censorship and deplatforming powers more broadly over time, rather than this being a one-off action.

“we have now handed this enormous power to this big tech cartel. And it's not going to end here. This is not the end. It's the beginning.” View on YouTube

Regardless of Mark Zuckerberg’s attempts to appease incoming U.S. political leadership in 2021, Facebook will eventually be broken up through antitrust or regulatory action.

“So he is thinking about how do I mollify and appease these politicians who now have the power and can break me up? And I got news for him. It's too little, too late, it's too late, too late. Anyway. Facebook's done. You're going to get broken up anyway.” View on YouTube

Following the Silicon Valley Trump fundraiser being discussed (held in late May 2024), there will be a noticeable cascade during the 2024 election cycle of high‑profile business and financial leaders publicly declaring support for Donald Trump, making such support increasingly socially acceptable in elite circles.

“And I think that this event is going to break the ice on that. And maybe it'll create a preference cascade where all of a sudden it becomes acceptable to acknowledge the truth. And which is a lot of people support Trump. And it's not just this, it's also Steve Schwarzman came out. I think Bill Ackman's on the edge of coming out for Trump. So there's a lot of people who are now like flipping. And I think it could really start to cascade on itself.” View on YouTube

Despite internal concerns, the Democratic Party will not successfully execute a late switch to a new presidential nominee in 2024; Joe Biden will remain their candidate through the election.

“But it's way too late for that.” View on YouTube

Following the ~20% post‑earnings drop discussed on May 31, 2024, Salesforce stock will, in retrospect, prove to have been a buying opportunity, as Marc Benioff successfully pivots Salesforce to benefit from the AI trend rather than missing it.

“my view is that I don't have a strong view about the stock, but my sense is it's probably a buying opportunity. I mean, I think Salesforce is still a great company... my guess is he's going to figure out how to take advantage of this, this AI trend for the company. They're not going to miss it. They're not going to get caught totally flat footed.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump’s New York hush‑money/business‑records conviction will eventually be overturned on appeal, but not until after the November 5, 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“So my guess is that at the end of the day, this case is going to get tossed on appeal, but that's probably going to happen after the election, after November 5th.” View on YouTube

Democrats’ strategy of using Trump’s status as a convicted felon from the New York case as a central line of attack in the 2024 campaign will ultimately fail to prevent his political success (i.e., it will not be decisive in stopping him from winning or remaining competitive).

“I think at the end of the day, this is probably not going to work.” View on YouTube

Joe Manchin will not run for U.S. president in 2024 as an independent (third‑party) candidate.

“If he wants to run as an independent, that's a different story. And that would really throw a curveball into the race. But I don't see him doing that.” View on YouTube

Within 5–10 years from March 2023 (by roughly 2028–2033), AI systems will enable major medical breakthroughs, such as significantly improved diagnosis or treatment capabilities, that would be widely recognized as breakthroughs in medicine.

“I could see major medical breakthroughs based on the AI in the next 5 or 10 years.” View on YouTube

Over the coming years, the pace of AI innovation and deployment will not slow in response to calls for a pause; instead, development activity and progress in AI will accelerate relative to the 2022–early 2023 baseline.

“I think we're not going to slow down. I actually think it's going the other way. I think things are going to speed up.” View on YouTube

In the short term (the next several years from 2023), most companies will not respond to AI coding tools by massively cutting software developer headcount; instead, they will keep similar numbers of developers and use AI to increase productivity and accelerate product roadmaps.

“In the short term, I see the benefits of AI being very positive because I don't think it's in most cases, wiping out human jobs. It's just making them way more productive... I just I don't think in the short term that what's going to happen is these companies are going to look to cut all their developers, because 1 or 2 of them can do ten times the work. I think that they're going to try and accelerate their product roadmaps.” View on YouTube

The massive AI/hyperscaler capex boom is a sound investment that will eventually deliver a real return, rather than being a bubble that fails to pay off.

“my view is that it's real, that I think there will be a return on all this capex ... eventually there will be a return on that investment” View on YouTube

Following the July 2020 House antitrust hearings, the major US tech platforms will substantially reduce their acquisition activity due to fear of regulatory challenge, producing a sustained chilling effect on M&A that will materially harm the Silicon Valley startup ecosystem (fewer startup exits via acquisition) in subsequent years.

“the big four tech companies have to be looking at these hearings, and now they're going to be second guessing every acquisition they want to make, and it's going to have a chilling effect. And I think that's a disaster for Silicon Valley.” View on YouTube

Biden is likely to win the November 2020 election because Trump, lacking his pre-COVID economic message and unable to hold in-person campaign rallies, has been knocked off his game and has not found a new pitch to run on.

“now it looks like Biden's going to win. Trump's Trump's been knocked off his game” View on YouTube

Sacks predicts that, as of late July 2020, the 2020 U.S. presidential election is on track to be a non‑close race, likely a Biden “blowout,” which in turn will prevent a post‑election constitutional or legitimacy crisis.

“I don't think the election is right now. It's not trying to be close at all. It's trying to be a blowout. And so I think we'll avoid the the crisis because it's not close. And it looks like Biden's going to run away with it.” View on YouTube

Sacks predicts that, despite the then‑current impasse and congressional recess in mid‑2020, Congress and the administration will eventually pass another COVID‑19 relief bill that includes some form of unemployment extension or stimulus.

“I think they will eventually pass a bill.” View on YouTube

Within roughly 2 weeks to 2 months of this July 30, 2021 episode, the U.S. CDC will officially change its COVID-19 policy/guidance regarding vaccinated people (e.g., on masking or transmission), aligning with the concerns discussed about Delta and vaccinated spread.

“Even the CDC hasn't officially changed their policy yet. I mean, it's coming, right? We know it's coming. They've always been behind the curve. We've predicted the policy change on this show anywhere from two weeks to two months before they actually do it.” View on YouTube

Following the COVID-19 vaccines, many additional medical products (vaccines and/or therapies) based on mRNA technology will be developed and brought to market in subsequent years.

“I mean, I think what it what it shows is that these Covid vaccines are just the first product, the first breakthrough product of this mRNA technology, there's going to be a lot more.” View on YouTube

AI personal assistants/agents will become the dominant form factor of AI, surpassing traditional research-oriented chatbots in popularity and usage.

“I think the takeaways for me are number one that this will be the year of the rise of the personal AI assistant... I think this is going to be such a big product that it may become the dominant form factor of AI, meaning more popular than the sort of research-oriented chatbot.” View on YouTube

Within a year, the predominant real-world use case of AI will have shifted well beyond niche 'fantasy chatbot' interactions, undercutting AI policy debates framed around that narrow use case.

“that is just not the predominant use of AI. And it's certainly not going to be in a year.” View on YouTube

Despite being viewed as a strong candidate with tech-world backing, Matt Mahan will lose the California governor's race, and Eric Swalwell will end up as the nominee/winner instead.

“I feel like the fact that you're telling me that Ma[han] is this great candidate and, you know, the whole tech world's going to get behind him. I'm sure that's true. And then somehow I think it's the reason he's going to lose and I think, you know, we'll end up with Swalwell” View on YouTube

The regulatory-capture push in Washington around AI "safety" and guardrails will eventually lead to an effort to ban open-source/open-weight AI models in the US, though proponents are not yet in a position to push for the ban directly.

“I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models or open weight models... I do think it is on the agenda and it's where all the breadcrumb trails are leading.” View on YouTube

Over the next couple of years from late 2025, the US economy will see a low-millions-of-jobs scale of positions lost, retired, or transitioned out due to AI-driven efficiency, even as the broader labor market and economy continue to grow on net.

“I just think we're going to go through, you know, low millions of jobs being lost or being retired and transitioned out over this next couple years.” View on YouTube

During the 2024 election cycle, Democratic National Committee and/or Biden campaign-aligned lawyers will mount an aggressive legal effort to keep the RFK Jr.–Nicole Shanahan ticket off the ballot in at least the 5–6 key swing states that will decide the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“I think what you're going to see is that lawyers from the DNC and the Biden campaign are going to fight tooth and nail to keep this ticket off the ballot, at least in the major contested states like the 5 or 6 states where the presidency will be decided in 2024. And of course, they'll be saying they're doing this to save democracy. But you're going to see, I think, a full court press by DNC lawyers to keep the Kennedy Shanahan ticket off the ballot.” View on YouTube

From 2024 onward, the annual interest expense on U.S. federal debt (already over $1 trillion per year in 2024) will continue to increase for the foreseeable future as maturing debt is refinanced at higher interest rates, and federal entitlement spending driven by demographic trends will also continue to rise over the same period.

“our interest expense keeps growing because as our debt rolls onto more expensive, higher interest bonds than our interest expense is increasing. Just a few years ago, our interest expense was only 300 billion a year, and now it's over a trillion a year. And that's just going to keep growing and growing. And then the other thing that's going to grow is all the entitlements related to to demographics.” View on YouTube

The U.S. recession that began by mid‑2022 will likely have a temporary bounce in GDP in Q3 2022, followed by a return to recessionary conditions (a "double‑dip" recession).

“Listen, listen, we're in a recession. It started. It might be a shallow recession. We don't know yet... It might turn out we might have a bounce in Q3. This might be more of a double dip. I suspect that's what it'll be.” View on YouTube

If U.S. interest rates remain around 3% on the 10‑year Treasury, the federal government will incur on the order of $1 trillion per year in debt service, and the U.S. will be in a prolonged era of fiscal austerity that will last beyond 2022 and extend past the current (Biden) presidential term ending January 2025.

“If interest rates stay at this. Call it 3% level, which is roughly where the ten year T-bills been. You know, bouncing around at that is a lot of debt service, $1 trillion a year of debt service. So I think we're probably entering an era, an overall era of austerity that lasts more than just this year or even this presidency.” View on YouTube

The November 2022 U.S. midterm elections will be a wave election (strongly favoring one party, implied to be Republicans), in which party affiliation matters more than candidate quality, resulting in some MAGA-aligned or "crazy" candidates winning office who otherwise would not win in a normal year.

“This year, I think this November is likely to be a wave election. And when you get a wave election, the specific candidate matters less and party matters more. So you could get some of these crazy swept into office.” View on YouTube

Contrary to Jason’s view, Donald Trump will not end up securing the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, even though he may run.

“I don't think so.” View on YouTube

Jeff Bezos will not receive the Democratic Party’s nomination for U.S. president in any foreseeable future election cycle, even if he were to choose to run.

“Even if Bezos were dumb enough to run for president. I think he's too smart to do that. The Democratic Party would never nominate him.” View on YouTube

The combination of the FTX collapse and the OpenAI board’s failed ouster of Sam Altman will effectively end ("put the nail in the coffin of") the effective altruism movement as a significant, credible force in tech and philanthropy over the coming years.

“I think the failure of that whole debacle will put the nail in the coffin of the EA movement.” View on YouTube

If Donald Trump is president again while Jerome Powell is Federal Reserve Chair, the Federal Reserve under Powell will not reduce the federal funds rate during Trump’s term, even though Powell was and would be willing to cut rates under Democratic administrations (Biden or a hypothetical Kamala Harris presidency).

“Too late pal. He'll cut for Biden. He'll cut for Yellen. He'll cut for Kamala. He will not cut for Trump.” View on YouTube

The U.S. economy will enter a recession in the near term following this April 2023 discussion, i.e., during the 2023 economic cycle.

“I think that we are headed for it seems like a recession.” View on YouTube

Owners who buy heavily vacant San Francisco office towers at distressed prices in 2023 will need to hold them for approximately 5–10 years before office demand and rents recover enough for the investment to make economic sense.

“So you're going to be sitting on that property for five years, ten years before the market comes back the way that you need it to.” View on YouTube

San Francisco’s downtown office vacancy rate, which is already above 30% in April 2023, will likely rise further and may reach around 40% as existing leases roll off and tenants shed additional space over the subsequent few years.

“So they're at 30% plus. And like I said, it could get worse before it gets better because as Lisa's role people are going to shed more space that they might not already be subleasing. So the real number might be like 40%.” View on YouTube

San Francisco’s downtown office market will not return to a normal/healthy vacancy range (roughly 5–15%) for at least five years and possibly up to about a decade after 2023; i.e., sustained elevated vacancy will persist into at least the late 2020s and potentially early 2030s.

“I mean, five years plus. I mean, just to give you some numbers... So they're at 30% plus. And like I said, it could get worse before it gets better... So like a decade, I think it's like, yeah, it doesn't seem like a decade. Feels like it's a decade.” View on YouTube

David Sacks maintains his prediction (as of April 28, 2023) that the U.S. economy will enter a recession in the near future, i.e., within the upcoming business cycle following this statement.

“I'm sticking by it. I think we're still going to have a recession” View on YouTube

Following the September 27, 2024 release of this episode, OpenAI will publicly announce and ship a formal 'agents' product (beyond research demos) in the near term, i.e., within roughly 12 months of this date.

“OpenAI, at a recent meeting with investors, said that PhD level reasoning was next on its roadmap. And then agents weren't far behind that they've now released the at least the preview of the PhD level reasoning with this oh one model. So I think we can expect an announcement pretty soon about agents.” View on YouTube

Apple Vision Pro will not achieve sustained mainstream traction; its period of public relevance will be brief, and it will effectively fade from prominence rather than becoming a widely adopted, long‑lived platform.

“You don't hear about the Apple Vision Pros anymore at all. I mean, those things came and went.” View on YouTube

Within roughly 1–6 months of this episode (by around late March 2025), Ukraine’s armed forces will become combat‑incapable and the Ukrainian side will effectively collapse militarily in the war against Russia.

“Ukraine is getting destroyed... it could be in the next month. It could be in the next two months. It could be in the next six months. I think they're eventually going to collapse. They're getting close to being combat incapable” View on YouTube

As Ukraine’s military position deteriorates toward potential collapse over the coming months, Western countries—particularly the United States and its allies—will face growing political and strategic pressure to intervene directly in the war to try to prevent that collapse.

“and in a way that poses the biggest danger, because the closer Ukraine gets to collapse, the more the West is going to be tempted to to intervene directly in order to save them.” View on YouTube

If Israel proceeds with a ground invasion of Gaza following the October 7, 2023 attacks, the resulting military operation will be relatively short in duration (not a prolonged, years‑long campaign) and will end with a negotiated ceasefire before the conflict escalates into a wider regional war.

“So I kind of think that the most realistic good case scenario is that if they do go in that the military operation, for various reasons, is not a long one, and eventually a ceasefire can be agreed to before this can escalate out of control.” View on YouTube

From late 2023 through roughly mid‑2025, there will be an elevated rate of startup shutdowns and failures compared with 2021, as companies that raised large rounds in 2021 exhaust their cash and are unable to raise new financing on acceptable terms.

“So I think you're going to see this dynamic for the next 18 months or so.” View on YouTube

Newly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson will not remain Speaker for the long term (i.e., he will be removed or replaced before serving multiple Congresses), though he is likely to survive at least the first few major political skirmishes and not be ousted immediately.

“Look, I don't think I don't think he's going to last long term, but, um, but it may be more than a few skirmishes.” View on YouTube

In the months following his election as Speaker (from late 2023 onward), U.S. media outlets will continually publish previously overlooked statements and sermons by Mike Johnson, portraying him as an extremist or 'wacko' based on those past remarks.

“there's going to be a drip, drip, drip Of all the things that he's ever said when he was kind of a backbencher and no one was paying attention, all these sermons that he's given and so forth. They're going to be, you know, writing stories about that, and they're going to make the guy seem like a wacko.” View on YouTube

In the Georgia 2020 election RICO case, prosecutors will use plea deals with lower‑level defendants like Jenna Ellis, Sidney Powell, and Kenneth Chesebro to attempt to secure cooperation from higher‑level figures such as Rudy Giuliani and John Eastman, and will then attempt to use any such testimony against Donald Trump, though these lower‑level witnesses will not themselves provide direct incriminating evidence sufficient to convict Trump without such higher‑level flips.

“I think what's likely happening is that they're flipping these lower level figures in order to flip the next higher level, which would be Giuliani and John Eastman, because I don't think these people have anything on Trump. So they're going to try and, you know, use Jenna Ellis to flip Rudy, and then they're going to try and see if Rudy will flip on Trump.” View on YouTube

The U.S. economy is entering (or already in) a serious downturn that will be classified as a recession in 2022.

“So it seems to me like we're headed into a pretty serious downturn or recession here. I mean, I've been saying we're in a recession for months.” View on YouTube

Later in 2022, as startup financing conditions worsen, there will be a noticeable increase in venture deals that use structured terms (e.g., multiple liquidation preferences and other preferences) to preserve prior high valuations for companies that would otherwise be facing down rounds.

“Where you start seeing structure in deals is in deals is when a founder is trying to preserve a valuation they got last year... you'll start to see them happen later this year when companies get more desperate.” View on YouTube

By roughly six months after this May 2022 conversation (i.e., by late 2022), the tech talent market will cool substantially, with candidates receiving fewer competing job offers and reduced upward pressure on compensation compared to the prior boom period.

“Within the next six months, the talent market is not going to be as hot.” View on YouTube

Following the COVID-19 vaccine policies, there will be a broad decline in public trust of vaccination in general in the coming years in the US (beyond just COVID vaccines).

“Actually I think I think you're right that one of the costs of this policy is going to be that people will stop trusting vaccination in general” View on YouTube

As of January 2023, the Russia–Ukraine war is capable of continuing as an ongoing conflict for another 2–3 years beyond this point without a forced resolution.

“I think that it certainly can go on.” View on YouTube

When looking back from mid-2024, professional economists will date the start of the then-current U.S. recession to sometime in the past (i.e., that a recession was already underway as of mid-2023).

“I think the economists a year from now may say that the recession had already begun.” View on YouTube

Following the 2022–2023 monetary tightening and liquidity withdrawal, there will be a large wave ('tsunami') of company failures and bankruptcies in the subsequent period (roughly the next 1–3 years).

“The money is being sucked out of the system like the tide before tsunami and tsunami is going to be all the failures and bankruptcies.” View on YouTube

China's open-source AI models will reach Anthropic's Claude Fable-level capability before Q1 2027.

“the founder of Z.AI, he said that before Q1, they'll have fable level capability. I believe them” View on YouTube

For at least the foreseeable future (multi‑year), the U.S. will not again see a fiscal‑plus‑monetary stimulus episode as large and aggressive as the 2020–2021 Covid period; there will be no comparable "party" of massive money airdrops into the economy.

“I don't think it's ever going to be quite the party that it was in 2020 and 2021, where both the fed and the federal government were just airdropping money into the economy... it's never going to be like that again, because we're never going to have that magnitude of money airdropped on the economy.” View on YouTube

[Not a prediction – rhetorical question about Texas seceding; excluded from verification.]

“Is Texas going to secede from the Union? Said, all right, what's going to happen?” View on YouTube

In the legal battle over Texas’s use of razor wire and related border-security measures versus the federal government (including the 2023–2024 Supreme Court dispute), Governor Abbott will ultimately lose in formal courts but will gain majority support in U.S. public opinion polls on the border issue.

“I think Governor Abbott here is probably going to lose in a court of law, but he's going to win in the court of public opinion.” View on YouTube

Biden’s 2022 student loan forgiveness action, implemented via executive authority, will be challenged in court, reach the U.S. Supreme Court, and has a high probability of being struck down as unconstitutional (similar to his prior eviction‑moratorium and vaccine‑mandate executive actions) within a few years of issuance.

“I just add, it's unconstitutional. I mean, the Constitution expressly says no money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by law. So I don't understand how Biden can even do this by an executive order. I expect this will be challenged and taken to the Supreme Court. And I think there's a very good chance that it'll end up like Biden's other executive orders that were ruled unconstitutional.... I think there's a good chance that this will also be ruled unconstitutional.” View on YouTube

In the November 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Republicans will win control of at least one chamber of Congress, most likely the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate will remain uncertain and could go either way.

“I think what's likely to happen in November is still that the Republicans win one of the chambers. Probably the House. I think the Senate is still up for grabs.” View on YouTube

OpenAI will release GPT‑5 within a few weeks to a few months after April 26, 2024, and GPT‑5 will represent a large, clearly noticeable quality improvement over GPT‑4, putting OpenAI roughly one full model cycle ahead of the open‑source community.

“the scuttlebutt about ChatGPT five is that it's amazing, and it's a big improvement over GPT four, and supposedly it's going to come out any day, week or month. So if GPT five comes out and knocks our socks off in a few weeks, then we're going to see that, oh, they're actually a cycle ahead of the open source community.” View on YouTube

TikTok will not successfully divest its U.S. operations within the legal timeframe and instead TikTok will be shut down in the United States under the new divest-or-ban law passed in April 2024.

“So I don't think they're going to be able to divest. I think they're just going to get shut down.” View on YouTube

Within the next few years following the April 2024 TikTok law, there will be a concerted U.S. media and political campaign framing Telegram as a Russian‑backdoored tool for terrorists (e.g., Hamas) with shady investors, aimed at justifying U.S. government action to restrict or ban Telegram in the U.S.

“you're going to see at some point, you'll see a media campaign that will be promoting the idea that telegram is used by Hamas, by terrorists, by groups that the US doesn't like, and that it's backdoored by Russia, and that it's got some shady investors on its cap table, and no politician is going to want to stand up and defend telegram. And all the industry money that flows into Washington will be promoting this idea that we have to ban it... this is a foregone.” View on YouTube

Sequence of enforcement under the new foreign‑controlled app authority: (1) Telegram will be targeted and materially restricted or banned in the U.S.; (2) if Joe Biden wins a second presidential term (2025–2029), U.S. authorities will subsequently move to pressure Elon Musk to divest X (Twitter) or otherwise act to curtail X, using that same authority.

“I think that the first step is you go get telegram because that's easy... and then if Biden wins a second term, they will eventually set their gunsights on X.” View on YouTube

If Joe Biden wins a second term, the U.S. Attorney General or relevant federal authority will open a formal investigation into X (Twitter) under the new foreign‑adversary‑controlled application powers and use it to apply sustained pressure on Elon Musk to divest or materially change control of X during that term.

“in a second Biden term, they will open an investigation and to start ratcheting up the pressure on Elon to get rid of X, because that's clearly what they want.” View on YouTube

Following the April 2024 TikTok divest‑or‑ban law, Telegram will be the next major foreign‑owned communication app to face U.S. government efforts to significantly restrict or ban its operation in the United States.

“I think telegram can stick its head between its legs and kiss his ass goodbye, because they're there next on the hit list.” View on YouTube

If Democrats hold the presidency, retain control of both the U.S. House and Senate in the 2024 elections, and Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are no longer moderating votes in the Senate, there will be a high likelihood that a federal wealth‑tax‑style measure on unrealized gains (similar to Biden’s 25% proposal) passes into law during that Congress.

“if the Democrats have the trifecta, if Biden wins re-election and holds on to the Senate and House, but without Manchin and Sinema, I think you have to price in the strong possibility that this passes.” View on YouTube

Over the coming decades, as U.S. federal liabilities mount, the federal government will eventually introduce significant new taxes or levies that explicitly target private retirement savings (e.g., 401(k)s and similar accounts) as a revenue source.

“you are going to absolutely go after your retirement accounts because that's the only way they're going to pay off these liabilities.” View on YouTube

David Sacks predicts that Donald Trump will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“All the data is basically pointing one direction, which is a Trump victory.” View on YouTube

If pre‑election polling showing Trump leading the national popular vote proves accurate, the 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome will be an Electoral College landslide in Trump’s favor (i.e., he will win by a large electoral margin rather than narrowly).

“So if Trump is winning the popular vote, then it's a landslide.” View on YouTube

David Sacks predicts that in the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump will win by a clear margin ("solid victory" / "pretty handily"), rather than in a very close contest.

“I'm actually pretty optimistic because I actually don't think it's going to be that close. I mean, right now it's looking like maybe landslide is too strong a word, but a solid victory for Trump. That's what the polls are showing. That's what the prediction markets are showing. That's what the early voting is showing. And if you look at all the other data points right now, it's showing Trump winning pretty handily.” View on YouTube

Eric Adams will win the 2021 New York City mayoral election and become the next mayor.

“Look, I mean, Eric Adams is going to be the next mayor of New York City.” View on YouTube

Crime will remain a dominant political issue across the United States for the next few years following mid‑2021.

“crime is the huge issue, and I think it's going to reverberate throughout America for the next few years.” View on YouTube

Over time after June 2021, substantially more information will emerge about a cover‑up related to the Wuhan lab and COVID‑19 origins, and the revelations will increasingly implicate those involved ("get worse and worse").

“What this database thing represents is, look, there was a cover up here, and that cover up has fingerprints and the information is leaking out. And we are seeing more and more information is going to come out. I actually disagree with you guys that we're not going to learn more about what happened. I think we're gonna learn a lot more, and it's gonna get worse and worse.” View on YouTube

By the end of the summer of 2021 (roughly by late September 2021), David Sacks will weigh less than Jason Calacanis.

“Guys, I'm on a I'm on a diet. I predict by the end of the summer, I'll be thinner than Jason.” View on YouTube

Nvidia’s AI‑GPU demand growth rates seen in 2023 will slow substantially going forward, but the long‑run steady‑state demand level for such chips will be at least as high as the 2023 level rather than falling below it.

“I think we can say that it can't continue at these growth rates, but probably there will be some steady state of demand that's you know, it probably is at least where we are today.” View on YouTube

Following the first GOP primary debate in August 2023, Vivek Ramaswamy will experience the largest positive bounce in support (e.g., in polls/attention) of any candidate on that stage in the immediate post‑debate period.

“He's going to have the biggest bounce out of the debate.” View on YouTube

In the struggle among GOP factions for control of the party going into the 2024 election (neocon, religious right, MAGA), the MAGA faction will ultimately prevail and produce the Republican presidential nominee.

“But I think it's probably going to be the MAGA faction.” View on YouTube

Western efforts to achieve regime change in Russia—i.e., to remove Vladimir Putin from power via external pressure or support for internal opposition—will not succeed during the current Russia–Ukraine war; Putin will remain in power and the Russian regime will stay stable, requiring other countries to negotiate/deal with him rather than expecting his ouster.

“The Russian regime, whether you like it or not, is stable. It is not unstable. Russia is winning the war. And you may hate Putin, but he is still a master of Russia and eventually we're going to have to deal with him. These fantasies that we're going to be able to regime change him, I think are absurd.” View on YouTube

If California successfully imposes a one‑time 5% wealth tax on billionaires and collects it, the state will subsequently repeat or extend wealth taxes rather than keeping it a true one‑time measure.

“And that's why I think even if they say this is a one time thing, we all know that it won't be one time. If they get away with it, it'll become a regular thing.”

If current state-level 'algorithmic discrimination' regulations (such as Colorado's) are not halted or reversed, they will ultimately result in AI models being required to embed DEI-style ideological constraints similar to those previously promoted by the Biden administration, effectively mandating DEI-like bias layers in mainstream AI systems.

“And I do think that where it's going to lead, if it's not stopped, is right back to Di.”

As a result of the Scarlett Johansson vs. OpenAI dispute (including any lawsuit or settlement), Scarlett Johansson will end up with an equity or economic ownership stake in OpenAI that is larger than Sam Altman’s personal ownership stake in the company, determined by the final structure of ownership after the dispute is resolved.

“The sentence is as Scarlett Johansson's going to end up owning more of this company than Sam Altman. That's what's going to happen.”

If the Scarlett Johansson vs. OpenAI dispute over the "Sky" voice is litigated to a substantive legal outcome instead of being quietly settled, the resulting court decisions or legislation will create more restrictive and unfavorable fair-use standards for AI and content companies than those that existed prior to this case.

“because it is such an industry leading company, I think we could end up with some very bad, fair use precedents or laws because Scarlett Johansson is so sympathetic as a plaintiff compared to open AI. And it's, you know, unless they show us some discovery that proves that they really did hire the voice actor and all the rest of it. I mean, this could lead to some very bad precedents for the industry around fair use.”

The March 2023 25‑basis‑point rate hike by the Federal Reserve may later be recognized as the marginal policy decision that tipped the stressed financial system into a more serious crisis (e.g., further bank failures or systemic instability).

“I think that this move here could, in hindsight, be seen as the straw that breaks the camel's back.” View on YouTube

Following the early‑2023 banking stress related to long‑dated bonds, the U.S. financial system will experience a second, more serious phase of crisis centered on large unrealized losses and defaults in commercial real estate loan portfolios.

“there's tremendous stress building up in the banking system from unrealized losses on long dated bonds. Also unrealized losses on commercial real estate loans. And we've barely scratched the surface of seeing that problem. That's, I think, the next shoe to drop in this whole thing.” View on YouTube

If current trends continue, a large portion of downtown San Francisco office towers will be repossessed by banks through loan defaults and then sold off in distressed, low‑price auctions, with limited buyer demand due to high vacancy and weak tenant demand.

“So then what happens is you end up with all of downtown San Francisco owned by a bunch of banks. What are they going to do with it? They don't want to be in the real estate business, so they have to fire sale those buildings in a bunch of auctions at rock bottom prices...There were no buyers.” View on YouTube

Bitcoin will not reach $1,000,000 per coin within 90 days of March 17, 2023 (i.e., by roughly mid‑June 2023).

“Do I think that we're going to have $1 million Bitcoin in 90 days? I personally find that very unlikely” View on YouTube

The 2023 banking turmoil is only the first of three phases of a broader financial crisis: (1) current banking/bond losses, followed within the next few years by (2) a major, deflationary commercial real estate crisis, and then (3) a government debt/sovereign debt crisis that prompts inflationary policies (monetization of debt), with these phases unfolding over a multi‑year period rather than within 90 days.

“So I think there's three phases to this financial crisis. We're in phase one, and I think CRA and government debt are the next two phases...I think that the government debt crisis...will be highly inflationary...I think this could play out over the next couple of years.” View on YouTube

Following the mid-2022 selloff in growth stocks, price declines (“carnage”) will subsequently spread to other major asset classes, particularly residential real estate, leading to further significant drops in those markets over the ensuing period of this cycle.

“Well, the stock market, especially growth stocks, may have taken the majority of the carnage. But you're right, there are other asset classes. And I think we're going to see the carnage start to rotate into those... So I think there are going to be more more shoes to drop.” View on YouTube

The U.S. economy will enter a recession in the near term as the Federal Reserve tightens policy to combat inflation.

“And this is a bunch of bad options. I think, you know, we are going to have a recession.” View on YouTube

By roughly one year after June 2022 (around mid-2023), the U.S. will be in the middle of a recession, and the amount of available venture capital funding for startups will have fallen by about 75% compared to the prior period, making 3–4 years of runway necessary instead of the previously standard 2 years.

“one of the speakers said that he said that when it comes to runway for startups, 3 to 4 years is the new two years, because if you just have two years of runway, you're going to need to raise in a year, and in a year from now, we're going to be in the middle of a recession. They're predicting they're forecasting that capital availability is going to decline about 75%.” View on YouTube

In the winter of 2022–2023, energy shortages and related pressures will significantly increase Putin’s leverage over Europe and will cause visible fractures within the Western alliance that had appeared unified earlier in the Ukraine war.

“by the way. That's coming. You think things are bad right now? Wait until winter and then. And that's only going to increase Putin's leverage. And that's when you're going to see a real fracture in the Western alliance. This idea that Ukraine strengthened the Western alliance. I think you will start to see the fractures come this winter.” View on YouTube

Over time (in the coming years), the U.S. will move toward a posture in which European NATO members are expected to bear essentially all (near 100%) of the financial cost of their own defense against Russia, rather than relying heavily on U.S. funding.

“They should be picking up 100% of the cost of that 100%. I don't know why we're paying for rich Europeans when our country is massively in debt. Why aren't we passing the bill to them for that?” View on YouTube

The 2024 U.S. presidential election will feature Ron DeSantis as the Republican nominee and Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee.

“I think it's going to be DeSantis versus Newsom in 24.” View on YouTube

For the 2024 U.S. presidential election: (1) If Joe Biden runs as the Democratic nominee, the Republican nominee—whoever it is—will win; (2) If the matchup is Ron DeSantis vs. Gavin Newsom, DeSantis will win; (3) If the matchup is Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump, Republicans are likely to lose (i.e., Newsom would probably defeat Trump).

“I think the configurations that win for the Republicans, I think if Biden is on the ticket, I think any Republican wins. I think if it's DeSantis versus Newsom, I think DeSantis wins. I think, however, and this is sort of the nightmare scenario. I think if it's something like Newsom versus Trump, I think Republicans could lose that just because, you know, the people.” View on YouTube

Anthropic will easily reach its internal forecast of $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of the year, up from about $10 billion at the start of the year and over $70 billion mid-year.

“Their internal forecast was to 10x this year from 10 to 100. We're in the middle of the year. They're already over 70 billion of ARR. They're easily going to get to 100 billion.” View on YouTube

OpenAI will exit the year with roughly $75 billion in annualized run-rate revenue, above its earlier internal target of about $60 billion, driven by a recent growth reacceleration (e.g., Codex).

“I think they were expecting to end the year at 60 billion of ARR and I think they're forecasting more like 75 billion of exit ARR.” View on YouTube

As AI models continue to commoditize and open source narrows the gap, the biggest financial winners will be training-data owners (e.g., New York Times, Reddit, X/Twitter, YouTube) rather than the foundation-model labs themselves.

“I am going to go with for my biggest winner for training data owners like the New York Times, Reddit X, Twitter, YouTube etc... So then I think the winner is folks who have the training data.” View on YouTube

As AI assistants are embedded directly into software products, a large share of customer support inquiries that today require human agents or separate support channels will effectively disappear, being handled in-product by AI instead.

“I think that a lot of that customer support inquiries just go away because the help The assistant gets built into the tool directly, so you never get to the point of you.” View on YouTube

In the Gonzales v. Google case argued in February 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court will ultimately rule in favor of Google, preserving broad Section 230 immunity for recommendation algorithms, and thereby delivering a legal win for Google and other large tech platforms.

“So even the justice, who I think was most likely to rein in 230 seem to be more comfortable with what the defendant, which was Google was saying. So it looks to me like Google and Big Tech are going to win this one.” View on YouTube

The Russia‑Ukraine war, as managed by the Biden administration, will ultimately have a worse overall outcome for the United States than the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq, in terms of cost, duration, clarity of objectives, and strategic consequences.

“I think the truth of the matter is that this war is going to turn out much worse than the Iraq war did in 1991, because in 91, we showed restraint and we knew what our vital interest was, and we kept our objectives is limited, and we kept the timetable very short.” View on YouTube

Western economic sanctions imposed on Russia over the Ukraine war will not cause a major collapse of the Russian economy; instead, Russia will experience only a modest GDP hit on the order of a low single‑digit percentage because non‑Western countries continue to trade with it.

“So the rest of the world is not happy with us. And this is why the Russian sanctions have not been effective. I think the Russian economy has had like a 3 to 4% hit. It is not the collapse that was predicted because there are enough other countries willing to do business with them.” View on YouTube

If the Ukraine war contributes to a significant U.S. recession before the 2024 election, Donald Trump’s main viable path to winning the presidency will be to blame that economic downturn on the war and the foreign‑policy establishment, using an anti–military‑industrial‑complex message as his central campaign argument.

“If we get a recession that Trump can, I think, lay at the feet of this war. He's positioning himself to take advantage of this could be a silver bullet for him. I don't think he has any other way of winning.” View on YouTube

Because the Ukraine war is existential for Russia, its leadership will be willing to escalate up to and including potential nuclear use rather than accept clear defeat, giving Russia enduring ‘escalatory dominance’ over NATO in this conflict.

“And the sooner we recognize that fact, the better off we're going to be.” View on YouTube

U.S. policy and rhetoric around the Ukraine war and China’s potential support for Russia will drive China and Russia into an increasingly close, quasi‑allied bloc opposed to U.S. interests, reversing the Cold War strategy of keeping them apart.

“And what we're doing right now, we're doing right now, is pushing China and Russia together into a new axis block. This is very foolish.” View on YouTube

Within 6 to 12 months (by roughly October 2026 to April 2027), xAI's suite of products will be dramatically improved from their current state.

“I am deep in playing with uh XAI's suite of products and I would predict we're going to be sitting here in 6 to 12 months and they are going to be dramatically dramatically improved.” View on YouTube

Over the next 3 to 6 months (through roughly July-October 2026), dedicated lower-cost cyber-focused AI models (comparable to Anthropic's large Mythos model) will become one of the hottest areas of competition among frontier AI labs.

“I think there's a real race on right now to get those products to market because I think IT departments and CISOs are very worried about the risk of hacks right now AI powered hackers. So this is something I think over the next 3 to 6 months will be again this maybe the hottest part of the market.” View on YouTube

From roughly mid‑2022, the IPO/SPAC/direct‑listing window for late‑stage private tech companies will remain effectively frozen for about two years, i.e., there will be very few such exits before mid‑2024.

“I think the whole public markets. Exit ideas frozen for two years. Two years. I think that's yeah, I think that's probably what people are thinking.” View on YouTube

Relative to the 2021 pace, annual venture capital deployment by US VCs over the next few years (starting 2022) will fall to roughly one‑third of the 2021 level as firms revert to a 2.5–3 year deployment cycle.

“If you just go back to a two and a half or three year pace of deployment and before in 2021, we were at a one year pace of deployment, divide the availability of capital by two thirds. I mean, you know, only one third as much will be deployed in any given year.” View on YouTube

The US economy will experience a double‑dip recession, with real GDP turning slightly positive for a short period and then going negative again once the full impact of interest‑rate hikes is felt, with this second downturn beginning sometime after late 2022.

“Given what we're seeing in the public markets this week, it doesn't look to me like it's going to get any better. It looks to me like we're headed for I mean I call it a double dip recession. I think a couple of months ago, that's exactly what it's looking like. In fact, the fed basically said as much.” View on YouTube

The privately led space race efforts by companies such as Blue Origin, SpaceX, and Virgin Galactic will lead to significant engineering and scientific breakthroughs in the coming years, beyond the state of the art as of mid‑2021.

“And I do believe there will be great engineering and scientific breakthroughs that come as a result of what they're doing with this new space race.” View on YouTube

Consensus Wall Street analyst expectations as of February 2024 are that Nvidia will still hold roughly "60-something percent" of the GPU market used for AI workloads five years later (around 2029).

“The Wall Street analysts I've been listening to think that in five years they're still going to have 60 something percent market share, so they're going to have a substantial percentage of this market or this Tam.” View on YouTube

The AI-driven wave of new applications (both consumer and enterprise) powered by cloud data centers and GPUs will continue to expand for at least the next decade from 2024, i.e., through at least 2034.

“I mean, we're just at the beginning of a wave that's probably going to last at least a decade.” View on YouTube

Following the public backlash to Gemini’s rollout (Feb 2024), Google will not remove ideological bias from the model but will instead adjust it to be less obvious and more subtle, rather than changing the underlying values or objectives.

“Now, I think what's going to happen now is in light of this, the reaction to the rollout is, do I think they're going to get rid of bias? No, they're going to make it more subtle... I think they're simply going to they're going to dial down the bias to be less obvious.” View on YouTube

In response to criticism of Gemini, Google will not materially change the ideological framing of the model but will instead make the biased behaviors less overt and harder to detect, rather than eliminating them.

“what I'm afraid of is that what Google will do is not change the underlying ideology that this AI model has been trained with, but rather they'll dial it down to the point where they're harder to call out. And so the energy will just be more subtle.” View on YouTube

If Transnistria (a Russian enclave in Moldova) formally seeks annexation by Russia and/or holds a referendum to join Russia following the February 2024 discussions, Western governments will treat this as evidence of broader Russian expansionist aims and the Ukraine conflict will significantly escalate as a result.

“So now Transnistria is right there and could theoretically make a play to try and join Russia. Why do I think this is a big deal? Because if something like this happens, it could really expand the Ukraine war. The West is going to use this as evidence that Putin wants to invade multiple countries and invade, you know, a bunch of countries in Europe. And this could lead to a major escalation in the war.” View on YouTube

The 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome will be extremely close, determined by margins of only a few thousand to a few tens of thousands of votes in key swing states rather than by a large national popular-vote or Electoral College landslide.

“Well, the election's going to be a nail biter, and it's going to really come down to a few thousand votes or a few tens of thousands of votes in swing states.”

Between late August 2024 and Election Day 2024, the Harris–Walz campaign will be forced to reveal more policy substance (e.g., via interviews or issue positions), and as this happens, Kamala Harris’s polling lead will erode relative to her initial post–‘hot swap’ bump.

“they've now got to run out the clock for another, I don't know what, 70 or 80 days in terms of running a campaign that's substance free, that's just completely on vibes, that's about joy. Without answering any questions, without doing any press interviews. And I think we predicted some time ago that that just was not going to be sustainable, that at some point they're going to have to tell us what they think. And as they do that, the more they do that, I think the more her polls will correct.”

If the United States implements a wealth tax similar to those tried in France and Norway, high‑net‑worth individuals will move assets and/or residency abroad, actual tax revenues will fall short of projections, and legislators will respond by broadening the wealth tax to cover a significantly larger share of the population than initially targeted.

“every time Wealth taxes get tried. What happens is the wealth flees and you never raise as much as you think you're going to. And then what happens is in order to raise that money, they have to apply it to more people.”

The tax increase on long‑term capital gains proposed by Biden in April 2021 will be included in the second 'human infrastructure' bill, that bill will pass Congress, and the federal long‑term capital‑gains rate for high earners will be raised substantially (significantly above 20%), even if the final rate is lower than 39.6%.

“I think I think it could pass because I think they're planning to do this tax increase as part of the second infrastructure bill... I think that bill will pass. I don't know if the rate will stay at 39.6, but I think there will be a big increase clearly in the cap gains rate.” View on YouTube

On appeal, Derek Chauvin’s defense team may cite Maxine Waters’ public comments as a ground for overturning the verdict, but that argument will not succeed unless they can show actual jury contamination from those comments; absent such proof, the conviction will be upheld on that issue.

“So yeah, they could use it. But but I don't think it's I don't think it's going to work unless they can prove that somehow the jury was contaminated by what they were hearing on TV.” View on YouTube

Klaviyo will reach roughly $1 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) during calendar year 2024.

“So you know, project that forward. They're probably going to be at a billion in RR next year.” View on YouTube

The DOJ will ultimately fail to win its Sherman Act antitrust case against Apple filed in March 2024 (i.e., Apple will not suffer a clear government court victory that forces major structural or behavioral remedies).

“And so I'm a little bit skeptical right now that the government going to be able to win this case.” View on YouTube

If, in practice, U.S. home buyers are required to directly pay their own buyer’s agent commissions (rather than those fees being baked into the seller’s side), the total commission pool in the U.S. residential real estate brokerage industry will fall by approximately 50% from its pre‑settlement level.

“If buyers are forced to pay their own broker's commission, and in the articles they're saying there's still like some gray area about what's going to happen. But that is what should happen. Buyers should be responsible for paying their own brokers. And if you do that, I think you'll knock out half the fees of this industry.” View on YouTube

If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates elevated for a prolonged period instead of delivering the anticipated cuts in 2024–2025, there will be significant financial distress in commercial real estate and this distress will extend into the U.S. regional banking system (e.g., rising loan losses, failures, or forced mergers).

“But if rates stay higher, longer then you're going to see some real distress. Including in the regional banking system.” View on YouTube

In the November 2022 U.S. midterm elections, JD Vance will win the Ohio U.S. Senate general election, Republicans will experience a broad 'red wave' nationally, and Blake Masters will win the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Arizona and perform strongly in the November 2022 general election.

“JD's already won the primaries, and I expect he will win. I mean, it's going to be, I think, a red wave in November and Ohio is a pretty red state these days. Blake stalls to win the primary in Arizona. That's a little bit more of a toss up, but I think he'll do well.” View on YouTube

During the 2021–2022 Congress, despite having the opportunity and sufficient potential Republican votes, Senate Democratic leadership will not bring forward and pass legislation to codify Obergefell (federal protection for same-sex marriage) before the end of that Congress in early January 2023.

“is there any intention of the Democrats to bring this up in the Senate and pass it and codify Obergefell when they have a chance? I think the answer is no. Why? Because the Democrats would rather fundraise off this issue.” View on YouTube

In the November 2022 U.S. midterm elections, the Republican Party will gain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives for the next Congress.

“Well, the Republicans are going to win the House.” View on YouTube

As of August 2025, the AI sector is in an ongoing investment boom/supercycle rather than at the start of a bust; over the next several years (through at least 2028) AI investment and commercial activity will broadly remain in a boom phase rather than entering a sustained bust.

“I don't think this was the beginning of a bust cycle or something like that. I still think that we're in a boom. I still think we're in an investment supercycle” View on YouTube

The development of AI over the next several years will follow a "supercycle" pattern of continued strong investment and progress, not a short-lived hype spike followed by collapse.

“what we should be talking about is just sort of where we are in this, in this AI supercycle.” View on YouTube

Over the next few years (through at least 2028), large AI models will not enter a phase of rapid recursive self‑improvement that produces a single runaway superintelligent AGI far ahead of all others; instead progress will be incremental and competitive among multiple model providers.

“what people can now see is that we're not in like a loop of recursive self-improvement... It's not like the leading players just all of a sudden going to achieve AGI just very quickly.” View on YouTube

As of 2025, the AI market is at an early-to-mid stage of an investment supercycle; AI startup funding, corporate capex, and strategic M&A will remain elevated (not collapse like a burst bubble) through at least the late 2020s.

“I don't think that a bubble has popped or anything like that. I actually think that we're still probably early to the middle of this investment supercycle” View on YouTube

As of July 21, 2023, the 2024 U.S. presidential election will most likely be a Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump rematch, and Joe Biden is more likely than Trump to win the general election, unless one of three conditions occurs before the election: (1) the U.S. falls into a recession, or (2) the Ukrainian side collapses in the Russia–Ukraine war, or (3) a January 6th–related indictment significantly harms Biden’s prospects.

“I think right now it looks like we're on track to have a Biden-trump rematch. And right now, Biden probably looks like he's going to win, barring a recession happening or the Ukrainian side collapsing in the war or the January 6th indictment.”

In the 2026 midterms, Democrats will win the House but Republicans will retain control of the Senate.

“I think it is legitimate to say that they are favored to win the House. I think the Senate right now is a toss-up and I would say that the Republicans will ultimately keep it if I had to predict right now.” View on YouTube

In the AI wave starting in early 2023, dozens (at least 24) of new startup unicorns (valuations ≥$1B) will be created globally over the subsequent ~2 years (by around mid-2025), driven specifically by AI technologies.

“there's a reason now to believe that, say, dozens of unicorns could be created in the next couple of years.” View on YouTube

By around mid-2025, multiple (at least 2 each) AI unicorns will exist in: (1) AI infrastructure (e.g., vector databases, agent platforms) and (2) AI copilot products targeted at specific professional categories (e.g., coding, medicine, law, architecture).

“I do think there will be dozens of new unicorns minted in various aspects of AI. It could be in AI infrastructure... or it could be in AI copilots... I think there's going to be potentially multiple unicorns created in in those categories.” View on YouTube

U.S. regulatory actions starting by early 2023 will effectively amount to a ban on most significant crypto activity in the United States, causing a substantial share of major crypto companies and new crypto startups to relocate their primary operations to foreign jurisdictions over the next few years (by ~2026).

“I think Chamath is right that they're effectively banning crypto in the United States. They're going to drive all these companies overseas, which is terrible for American innovation.” View on YouTube

Within 2–3 years of September 2024 (by roughly September 2026–September 2027), the call center industry will experience massive disruption from AI, with a substantial share of its operations materially changed or displaced by AI systems.

“within the next 2 to 3 years, you're going to see a massive disruption in that [call centers]” View on YouTube

Within roughly 2–3 years of September 2024, AI systems (LLMs plus voice) will replace essentially all level-one customer support roles in call centers, such that the majority of first-line customer inquiries are handled by AI rather than human agents.

“all the level one customer support is going to get replaced by AI” View on YouTube

Conditional on the Fed delivering roughly another 50 bps of rate cuts in 2024 and inflation remaining contained so that rates move down substantially (though not back to zero), the technology and venture ecosystem will enter a new, sustained "golden era" of strong performance and opportunity driven by AI, distinct from but comparable in strength to the early-2000s tech boom and not characterized by a bubble-level of excess.

“if these interest rate cuts are real, like if we just got 50, if we get another 50 this year, if inflation's really tamed and interest rates are never going to go to zero. But if they go down substantially and we have this new AI disruption, this new AI tailwind, we could be back in another golden era. It's not going to be a bubble but it could be another golden era.” View on YouTube

If Israel proceeds with a ground invasion of Gaza (after 2023-10-20), then during the subsequent period of that invasion there will be protests/riots and major social‑media eruptions across the Middle East and globally on an almost daily basis.

“I would consider the riots that we just saw in regards to the hospital and the eruption on social media, to be a prelude or dress rehearsal of what we can expect to happen almost every day if Israel proceeds with the ground invasion of Gaza.” View on YouTube

Following the implementation of the EU Digital Services Act (DSA), large tech platforms may choose to standardize their content-moderation and compliance model globally by applying DSA-style rules in the United States as well, rather than maintaining a separate, more speech-permissive regime in the US.

“What could happen is that because it's easier for companies just to have one approach where they can, there is a risk that these same policies get applied in the US. That is what happened with privacy. Remember, Europe went first with GDPR and then.” View on YouTube

In response to the EU Digital Services Act, major tech and social media companies (e.g., Google, Meta, etc.) will choose to comply fully with EU content and data-access demands, rapidly implementing EU takedown and transparency requests rather than resisting or exiting the EU market.

“I think the most likely outcome is that tech companies will be craven and they'll fold, and they'll just do whatever these EU commissioners want.” View on YouTube

Following the implementation of the EU’s new content moderation/censorship regime, major tech and social media companies will comply fully with EU commissioners’ takedown demands and policy requirements rather than resisting them, effectively doing whatever the EU commissioners want.

“I think the most likely outcome is that tech companies will be craven and they'll fold, and they'll just do whatever these EU commissioners want.” View on YouTube

The controversy over Ron DeSantis blocking AP African American Studies in Florida will ultimately benefit him politically; opposition to state-funded CRT-style curricula will prove to be roughly a 70% popular position with Florida voters once polling and political outcomes are observed over the following months/years.

“Make a prediction right now. This will all redound to his advantage... if the question is whether CRT is going to be funded by the state and he's preventing that again, I think that'll be a 70% popular issue. So let's just wait and see how this plays out.” View on YouTube

Nikki Haley will not win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

“She's not gonna win the Republican nomination.” View on YouTube

Future Republican Party polling (after January 2023) will show Glenn Youngkin as the clear third-most popular national Republican figure, behind only Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis.

“Based on interest in the party. And, you know, I've talked to people and I think the polling will eventually reflect this. He's very talented.” View on YouTube

Glenn Youngkin will launch a campaign for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, since Virginia’s single-term governor limit leaves him no choice but to "make a play" in 2024.

“Virginia has this wonky one term term limit on governors. So you know he's got no choice but to make a play in 2024 because he's going to be termed out anyway.” View on YouTube

The global political trend away from Davos-style globalist leaders toward more nationalist leaders prioritizing their own countries’ interests will continue over the coming years beyond 2023.

“And I think that the resistance to the imposition of their, again, their globalist policies... has been receding in favor of more nationalist leaders who want to promote their own country's interests. And I think that that trend is going to continue.” View on YouTube

If the current trend of politically motivated violence and intolerance of opposing speech in the United States continues, it will ultimately lead to a civil war, affecting both sides of the political spectrum. No explicit timeframe is given.

“And it's not Western civilization. It's something different And destructive, and where it will lead to is a civil war that none of us should want. On either side of the political spectrum.” View on YouTube

Elon Musk will continue holding his SpaceX shares for much longer than the mandatory one-year post-IPO lockup period.

“He's under a one-year lockup. And I predict that he'll hold on for much longer than that because creating SpaceX is his life's work.” View on YouTube

If Iran restarted its nuclear program from scratch after the peace deal, it would take years, likely a decade to 15-plus years, to build enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon.

“even if they restarted the program, even if they resourced the equipment, rebuilt the intelligence to do it, etc., etc., it's going to take years to a decade to 15 years plus to build enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear weapon.” View on YouTube

The current oligopoly of a few dominant AI labs and hyperscalers will break down over time as market forces drive diffusion and fragmentation across chips, clouds, models, and software layers.

“I just think the market forces are so strong for a diffusion of each layer in the stack finding its way to the cheapest, the more available, the more accessible partner vendors that we're very likely going to see these kind of, you know, handful of oligopolies kind of break down a little bit.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump’s selection of JD Vance as his 2024 running mate will result in the America First / MAGA ideological faction continuing to dominate and define the Republican Party for many years beyond the 2024 election cycle.

“I think that Donald Trump choosing JD Vance was so important to cement this new vision of the Republican Party. It was a legacy pick because it means that this America First MAGA message is going to continue into the future, many years into the future.” View on YouTube

If Donald Trump wins a second term and takes office in January 2025, Lina Khan will no longer be serving as head of the Federal Trade Commission during that Trump administration.

“So, look, I don't think that Lina Khan is going to be running that agency in a second Trump administration.” View on YouTube

If, during calendar year 2024, U.S. interest rates are not cut by roughly 150 basis points from their early‑2024 level, then a large number of commercial real estate sponsors (owners/operators relying on floating-rate debt) and, as a consequence, a large number of U.S. regional banks that lent to them will encounter serious financial distress (e.g., elevated defaults or need for restructurings).

“so if rates don't come down as expected this year. I think the market's expecting 150 basis points of rate cuts. If that doesn't actually happen, there's a lot of real estate sponsors who are in trouble. And in turn, there's a lot of regional banks who are in trouble because they're the ones who made all these loans to these sponsors.” View on YouTube

Over the long term (years to decades), public and historical opinion will shift so that Israel’s 2023–24 Gaza war is widely regarded as Israel’s equivalent of the U.S. Vietnam War (i.e., an unwinnable quagmire with heavy civilian casualties), and the current anti-war protesters, such as the Google employee protesters, will be viewed more sympathetically than they are at the time of this recording.

“I think that in the fullness of time, we may come to think of them in a slightly different light... I want to make two points about why I think this war will eventually be viewed as Israel's Vietnam.” View on YouTube

Even if U.S. government funding for NPR were eliminated, NPR will continue to operate as an organization, sustained by private funding mechanisms such as subscriptions or donations, rather than shutting down.

“They could easily Substack it. NPR is not going to go away. Just create subscriptions and you're fine.” View on YouTube

Over the long term (multi-decade horizon), adoption of technologies that tightly integrate computing with humans (e.g., wearables, AR, brain-computer interfaces) will continue to increase and will not reverse; products that make humans more cybernetic will, in aggregate, gain adoption rather than fade away.

“I think that humans are becoming more and more cybernetic. We're getting more and more immersed with computing power. And I agree it creates this anxiety and all these problems. But on the other hand, I think it's an irreversible trend. So I think that I would not bet against things that make us more cybernetic.” View on YouTube

In the near future (next several years), Humane’s AI pendant–style device will face direct competition from Apple’s glasses and multiple other computer-vision wearables designed to capture real‑world visual information, limiting its prospects as a standalone replacement for the phone.

“The problem they're going to have is that that pendant will compete with the Apple glasses and all the other wearables that are going to be created to suck in all this information, this computer vision from the world.” View on YouTube

At some point in the future (explicitly acknowledged as "pretty far off"—likely multi-decade), brain-computer interface technology will enable people to record and later upload first-person, memory-like visual records of their experiences (effectively a full-life DVR via neural/ocular interfaces), creating a persistent, searchable log of conversations and events.

“when we have this brain computer interface, you'll be able to upload your memories. And so you talk about this idea of recording your whole life through a pendant. Well, eventually you'll be able to record your whole life based on just through your eyeballs. And you know, you'd be able to upload, in theory, a first person view of whatever conversation you've been in, you know? And so there's a certain look, this is pretty far off, but there is maybe a certain inevitability to that.” View on YouTube

Kamala Harris’s October 2024 Bret Baier Fox interview will not improve her standing; it will not help her close the gap with Trump in the weeks leading up to the November 5, 2024 election.

“Trump over the past few weeks seems to have had a surge, owing to the fact that Kamala's interviews generally don't go well... I don't think the interview is going to help her.” View on YouTube

Despite current plans and announcements in 2024, the United States will not see large-scale deployment of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs); local community opposition (NIMBY) will prevent widespread siting and build-out.

“Well, I don't think we're going to, because I don't think anyone wants a nuclear power plant in their backyard... I just don't think your typical community wants a nuclear power plant in their backyard... So I don't think this is going to happen.” View on YouTube

At some point in the future, there will be a significant accident at a nuclear power plant (including potential SMRs) in or near a poorer/working-class community in the United States, resulting in harmful radioactive fallout affecting that community.

“And inevitably there's going to be some accident. I mean, you can tell me how safe they are to your blue in the face. I don't believe it... something's going to happen. I mean, something's going to happen. And then the the fallout is, is literally going to fall out on, on the people in that poor community.” View on YouTube

If Donald Trump loses the 2024 presidential election, the use of "lawfare"—legal and regulatory actions perceived as politically motivated—against figures like Elon Musk and other political opponents will significantly increase over the subsequent presidential term (2025–2029).

“There's going to be lawfare all over the place.” View on YouTube

If the current governing coalition associated with the Biden–Harris administration is not electorally defeated in 2024, legal and regulatory "lawfare" actions against Elon Musk and other political opponents will continue or intensify during the following presidential term (2025–2029), because the actors face no effective downside for doing so.

“I mean, I'm definitely not at the top of the list. Ellen's at the top of the list. Right. So he has. No he has no choice but to go all in. They're already doing lawfare against him. It's ridiculous. I think the point is just that if they're not defeated, they're going to keep doing it because there's no downside for it.” View on YouTube

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the outcome is expected to be very close in electoral-vote terms unless Donald Trump wins; Trump is the only candidate with a realistic chance of achieving a landslide electoral victory.

“Right now, the only candidate who looks like he could get a landslide is Trump. Otherwise, it's going to be very close. So you're rooting for Trump if you want a landslide.” View on YouTube

In the several years following June 2021 (i.e., roughly through 2024), regulation and government treatment of big tech markets in the United States will become highly politicized, with significantly more partisan conflict and political maneuvering around big tech policy than existed before her appointment.

“I think what we're in for over the next few years is potentially a hyper politicization, politicization of big tech markets.” View on YouTube

Following Lina Khan’s June 2021 confirmation, the U.S. political system (both left and right) will move toward treating large tech platforms that control core infrastructure (e.g., major app stores, cloud platforms, dominant social networks) as regulated common carriers, and within a few years there will be concrete U.S. regulatory or legislative actions that impose common-carrier-like obligations (e.g., nondiscrimination in access) on at least some of these big tech companies.

“I think the words you're going to hear a lot okay are common carrier. Because what she seems to be saying is, look, if you're a tech monopoly that controls core infrastructure, we need to regulate you like a common carrier... And so I think there is I think the left and the right here can cut a deal where they regulate these guys, these big tech companies, as common carriers. I think that is what we're headed towards.” View on YouTube

SARS‑CoV‑2 (COVID‑19) will never be fully eradicated; it will remain an endemic virus circulating in the background indefinitely rather than reaching and staying at zero cases.

“we wouldn't let you know all the special rules and restrictions lift until there were zero cases of Covid. And we all know that's never going to happen. Covid will always be around in the background.” View on YouTube

California Governor Gavin Newsom and his allies will attempt to schedule or accelerate the 2021 recall election so that it occurs before the peak of the 2021 fire season in California.

“Newsom is so worried about fire season that they're going to try and accelerate the recall election. So it happens before there was, you know, the conventional wisdom, the conventional wisdom.” View on YouTube

The 2021 California wildfire season, relative to the time of recording in June 2021, will be extremely severe and "hellish" in terms of fire activity and impacts.

“I think we are in for a really hellish fire season” View on YouTube

Nancy Pelosi will lose the Speakership by around January 2023 (after the 2022 midterms) and will be effectively headed into retirement from top House leadership at that time.

“I predict that she is set to not be speaker anymore in two years and headed for retirement.” View on YouTube

Elon Musk will become the richest person in the world and, eventually, the first individual with a net worth of at least $1 trillion.

“I think Elon seems to be on track to be, uh, not only the world's richest man, but the world's first trillionaire.” View on YouTube

Disney+ will establish itself as a long‑term, major rival to Netflix in the global streaming market.

“I don't know if they'll pass them, but they're now certainly going to be a major rival to them.” View on YouTube

By sometime in 2021, public and platform deference to the World Health Organization (W.H.O.) on COVID‑related guidance will substantially fade, and the W.H.O. will no longer be widely treated as a key authority in public discourse or major platforms’ content policies.

“I look forward to next year when nobody cares about the W.H.O. anymore.” View on YouTube

In 2021, there will be a significant recall effort in California targeting state-level leadership (implicitly Governor Gavin Newsom), substantial enough to be characterized as a “big recall.”

“this is why there could be a big recall next year in California.” View on YouTube

In 2021, the U.S. Congress will hold additional high‑profile public hearings in which major tech CEOs are grilled in a similar, highly theatrical manner to the 2020 hearings referenced.

“there's going to be more of it next year.” View on YouTube

Between mid-2023 and the subsequent few years, U.S. residential real estate prices will undergo a significant downward correction (i.e., broad price declines versus 2022 peak levels) as higher interest rates work through the system.

“I think that as this washes through the system, you could see a big correction in the values of residential real estate, which is most people's main asset.” View on YouTube

By sometime in 2025, U.S. multifamily commercial real estate will experience clear, broad-based distress (e.g., elevated defaults, workouts, or forced sales), comparable to the existing distress in office, among developers who need to refinance in 2023–2025.

“I think you're going to see again, not just in paired office space now impaired multifamily. And there is not, I think, a sector of real estate developer who is not in distress right now if they need financing in the next year or two.” View on YouTube

Even if the Federal Reserve reduces the federal funds rate to roughly 3–4% in 2024, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield will not necessarily decline commensurately and may remain elevated (around mid‑4% or higher), meaning long-term real-estate financing costs will not materially ease in 2024.

“even if the fed does cut rates next year, the rate that the fed cuts is the short rate... Even if they cut that to call it 3 to 4% next year, there's no guarantee that the ten year rate... will move down... and that rate may not come down.” View on YouTube

Through roughly the end of 2024, most U.S. real estate developers who need to refinance projects will face significantly worse loan terms (lower loan‑to‑value, higher rates, additional collateral or guarantees) compared with their prior financing.

“this is something that's going to be afflicting pretty much every real estate developer needs to refinance in the next year or so” View on YouTube

For at least the near term after August 2023, portions of the commercial real-estate debt market will effectively seize up, with many proposed syndicated CRE loans receiving no bids at any reasonable rate from typical institutional funders.

“these guys I know that work in commercial real estate debt said they're putting out these syndicated loan proposals to the typical funders, and there's no bid... There is no rate. There's just no bid.” View on YouTube

As a consequence of the indictments and ensuing political dynamics, the 2024 cycle will result in an extreme outcome for Donald Trump: he will either be elected president again or be convicted and receive a prison sentence, rather than ending up with an intermediate outcome such as quietly exiting politics without conviction or nomination.

“what Democrats are doing with this partisan Lawfare is that they are polarizing the outcomes. They're either going to send Donald Trump to the big House or to the white House.” View on YouTube

Republican voters and elites rallying around Donald Trump in response to the indictments will ensure that he wins the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

“Of course, they're rallying around him. It's ensuring that he will be the nominee.” View on YouTube

Over the coming years and decades, AI adoption will not lead to mass technological unemployment but will instead shift human labor toward less rote, more gratifying tasks, resulting in higher overall productivity and higher standards of living across the economy.

“So I think what's going to happen here is that AI is going to enable people to shift their work to more gratifying and less rote parts of the economy that will increase productivity and standards of living for everybody.” View on YouTube

For the foreseeable future (at least over the coming decade), AI systems will function primarily as tools that handle intermediate subtasks rather than fully replacing humans in end-to-end jobs, leading to higher human productivity rather than widespread job loss.

“AI will not be a replacement for humans. They're going to do the stuff in the middle that humans don't like to do, and it's going to allow humans to be much more productive.” View on YouTube

There is a 70% probability that Joe Biden will remain in the 2024 presidential race and not drop out before the general election.

“I still think there's about a 70% chance that Biden runs.”

Over time, OpenAI will shift its primary business model away from direct B2C subscriptions toward B2B monetization, mainly by charging for and monetizing applications and services built on top of its models.

“Well, I think you're assuming there that the long term business model of OpenAI is in B2C subscriptions. And I think that's probably the least attractive business model they have available to them... So I suspect they're going to move in more of a B2B direction over time, because that's where the real money is. And probably the way they do that is by monetizing all the apps that are built on top of it.” View on YouTube

Because of GPT‑4o and similar advances in foundation models, most of the R&D invested over the last 2–5 years into building proprietary conversational/virtual customer support agents (especially work focused on core conversational ability and speed) will be rendered obsolete, and new customer support agent startups built on the latest models from 2024 onward will have a structural advantage over those earlier efforts.

“there are a whole bunch of startups out there that were creating virtual customer support agents... I think their product roadmaps just became obsolete... my guess is that hundreds of millions of dollars of R&D just went out the window. And probably this is the best time to be creating a customer support agent company if you're doing it two years ago, five years ago. Your work is just like been obsolete.” View on YouTube

For application developers who build features that overlap too much with what frontier AI models are learning to do natively, those overlapping features will be rendered obsolete within a few months of major model upgrades.

“If you're an app developer, the key thing to understand is where does model innovation end and your innovation begin? Because if you get that wrong, you'll end up doing a bunch of stuff that the model will just obsolete in a few months.” View on YouTube

Future AI models used within Glue (and similar enterprise chat tools) will become capable of automatically inferring which internal data source or repository to query, without users having to explicitly specify it, making AI assistance more seamless than the May 2024 state.

“in the future it's going to figure it out on its own. So it's going to become more and more seamless, but.” View on YouTube

By the time a GPT‑5‑class model is available, enterprise chat tools like Glue will be able to support effectively “promptless” AI behavior, where the AI autonomously interjects into conversations when it detects it has relevant, helpful information, without being explicitly summoned by a user.

“That's where I want to go with it is I call that prompt list, which is I want the AI just to chime in when it determines that it has relevant information and can help the team, even if it hasn't been summoned yet. But we need some model improvement for that, frankly. I mean, we'll be able to get there by GPT five, but that's totally where this is headed.” View on YouTube

Gemini-powered AI Overviews/one-box style results will become the dominant interface for Google Search, effectively displacing the traditional ‘10 blue links’ paradigm as the primary way users consume search results.

“It’s very clear now that Gemini powered one box is the future of Google search. People just want the answer. I think that this feature is going to eat the rest of Google’s search.” View on YouTube

Perplexity.ai, as an independent search/answer engine, will struggle severely or fail competitively now that Google has copied its core product approach; its most viable positive outcome is to be acquired rather than to succeed at large scale as a standalone competitor.

“They got caught completely flat footed. And they’ve now, I guess, caught up by copying perplexity and sucks for perplexity. I think they’re kind of screwed now unless they get over an acquisition deal.” View on YouTube

Alphabet/Google’s market capitalization will reach approximately $5 trillion at some point in the future, despite earlier AI missteps, driven in part by successfully copying and integrating AI features into search and other products.

“Same thing here with Google. They completely screwed up AI. They invented the transformer. Completely missed LLMs…Doesn’t matter…they’re probably going to become a $5 trillion company now.” View on YouTube

Following the failures/backstops of Silvergate, SVB, Signature, First Republic, and Credit Suisse in March 2023, there will be additional significant banking-sector problems (i.e., more “shoes to drop”) beyond those already identified, rather than the crisis ending with those five institutions.

“Moreover, do any of us believe that this is over, or do we believe there are more shoes to drop? If we believe that there are more shoes to drop, we may not know exactly what they are, but. But I think all of us probably believe that we're not at the end of this.” View on YouTube

Venture capital funds raised and deployed in the years immediately following this March 2023 episode (i.e., vintages 2023 onward) will, on average, produce better investment performance than 2021-vintage VC funds.

“my guess is that the new vintages of VC are going to be better than, you know, call it 2021 for sure.” View on YouTube

As a result of the East Palestine, Ohio vinyl chloride train derailment and controlled burn, there will be a noticeably elevated incidence of cancer among the exposed population that becomes evident roughly 20 years after the incident (around 2043), implying that many residents will develop cancer attributable to this event.

“I guess we'll know in 20 years when a lot of people come down with cancer.” View on YouTube

GPT-4 will be released within a few months of February 17, 2023, and it will represent a major capability improvement over GPT-3.

“Moreover, the capabilities are getting better and better. I mean, GPT four is coming out, I think, in the next several months, and it's supposedly, you know, a huge advancement over version three.” View on YouTube

The Build Back Better bill is being shelved in late 2021 and will probably not be revived or passed in the future.

“So I think that is why the bill is being shelved. Probably not to return.” View on YouTube

During 2022, even Democratic‑leaning (“blue”) states and their governors will roll back and largely give up COVID emergency measures such as lockdowns, closures, and broad mask mandates due to public fatigue.

“I'll make a prediction for 2022. Okay. I will predict that even the blue areas of the country are going to have fatigue with all these Covid restrictions. And so even the blue state governors who are addicted to their state of emergencies and their restrictions and lockdowns and closures and mask mandates, even they are going to have to give them up in 2022 because the country is sick and tired of this.” View on YouTube

The spread of the Omicron variant in the United States will be effectively impossible to stop through public‑health restrictions; it will spread widely regardless of interventions.

“They're already back to normal in the red parts and especially Omicron. You can't stop this.” View on YouTube

In 2022, particularly in the November 2022 elections, governors in U.S. blue states who maintain strict COVID restrictions (especially school closures) will be voted out in a broad Republican “red wave,” with Gavin Newsom likely being the only such governor who survives in office.

“I think Omicron if we have lockdowns under Omicron. And really the big issue is school closures. If we go back to school closures in blue states and have more of the learning loss that Chamath was talking about, and I bet we do. Whereas in red states, they're still out there learning normally... We're going to there's going to be we're going to be living in two different Americas... I think eventually these governors who are holding on to their power and their restrictions are going to lose in 2022, the ones who haven't given it up are going to are going to basically fall to a red wave in November of 22. I think Newsom might be the only one left standing.” View on YouTube

In 2022, some Democratic‑leaning (“blue”) states will re‑impose COVID‑related school closures, leading to additional learning loss, while Republican‑leaning (“red”) states will generally keep schools open and operating normally.

“If we go back to school closures in blue states and have more of the learning loss that Chamath was talking about, and I bet we do. Whereas in red states, they're still out there learning normally” View on YouTube

In the November 2022 elections, there will be a Republican “red wave” in which Democratic governors who maintain strict COVID restrictions will lose their offices; among such strict Democratic governors, Gavin Newsom will likely be the only one re‑elected or remaining in office.

“But but I don't believe this is sustainable. I think eventually these governors who are holding on to their power and their restrictions are going to lose in 2022, the ones who haven't given it up are going to are going to basically fall to a red wave in November of 22. I think Newsom might be the only one left standing.” View on YouTube

During 2022 there will be a significant political and economic “correction” to what he describes as the overreaction to COVID-19 (massive monetary/fiscal stimulus and restrictive policies like lockdowns and school closures), such that by the end of 2022, the U.S. will largely have moved past those overreaction-style policies even if COVID itself is not fully over.

“Okay, I think we're about to enter a new phase, which is the correction to the overreaction. And I think we're already in the correction... And I think you'll see a further correction both political and economic in 2022. So we may not be completely past Covid, but I think we are going to be past this sort of overreaction to Covid.” View on YouTube

Within the next political cycle following this December 2021 discussion (i.e., by sometime in 2022), San Francisco Mayor London Breed will openly come into conflict with District Attorney Chesa Boudin over her agenda to increase policing and crack down on crime, because Boudin will not support that agenda.

“I predict that London Breed is going to eventually butt heads with Chase a boudin. There is no way that he will support this agenda of fixing the city.” View on YouTube

In San Francisco’s February 15, 2022 recall election for the school board, at least two of the three targeted board members will be successfully recalled, and that outcome will prompt Mayor London Breed to publicly support the recall of District Attorney Chesa Boudin in the June 2022 election.

“So here's my prediction on February 15th. They are having the recall election for the education board, and I predict that that board, at least two of the three are going to be recalled. The parents are sick and are sick and tired of it. They are going to be out. I think that's going to embolden London Breed to then support the recall of Chase Boudin in the June election.” View on YouTube

Between late 2021 and the end of 2022, and especially following a Republican “red wave” in the November 2022 U.S. elections, there will be a pronounced internal split within the Democratic Party (and U.S. liberal politics more broadly) between pragmatic liberals and radical progressive activists.

“I think there is going to be a schism. I think it started after the Union victory in Virginia, and I think it's going to accelerate throughout for the next year, and especially after the red wave in November 2022. There's going to be a schism between liberal pragmatists and these extreme radical progressives.” View on YouTube

Over the few years following the COVID-19 pandemic’s peak (starting from 2021–2022), the U.S. will move away from the “pandemic politics” period characterized by radicalized policies and rhetoric on both sides, and national politics will moderate relative to that peak radicalization.

“I think we're seeing the the correction of the overreaction the pandemic caused, what Neil Ferguson calls pandemic politics, that we that the pandemic bred a strain of radical politics that we saw all over the country. And I think... I think the country is going to come out of that.” View on YouTube

New York City's new pied-à-terre tax on second homes over $5 million will sharply reduce demand for second homes in Manhattan, crashing that segment of the real estate market.

“So what do you think that's going to do? It's going to have a massive impact on demand for second homes in New York, which will crash the whole market.” View on YouTube

Anthropic will end the current year with annualized revenue of roughly $80-100 billion, continuing its trajectory from about $10 billion last year to $30 billion by the end of Q1 this year.

“they went from let's call it 1 to 10 billion of ARR last year and by the end of Q1 this year they were already at 30 billion of again let's call it their revenue and they're on their way... they're going to end this year at 80 to 100 billion at least on the current trajectory” View on YouTube

Data centers will become politically unpopular enough that roughly 30 U.S. states will move to ban new data center construction outright, making project approvals very difficult.

“Well, I think I think Jimoth is right that the the data centers become very unpopular. probably in 30 states they're just going to ban them outright and then it's very hard to get projects approved.” View on YouTube

Over the next year, Anthropic will be forced to build its own data centers (having exhausted third-party compute capacity), and its public messaging around data centers -- shaped by its effective-altruist-aligned stance -- will shift to favor them.

“they apparently have reached the limits of the compute that's available to them by buying it from a third party and they need to build their own data centers. It's going to be very interesting to see how they adapt to that and how the message around data centers changes over the next year as let's call it the effective altruists decide that all of a sudden data centers... might be a good thing” View on YouTube

As of mid-October 2020, the COVID-19 crisis is winding down and will substantially recede in severity and societal impact in the near term.

“it feels to me like we are really winding down on the whole the whole covid thing” View on YouTube

Polling as of late October 2020 points to a Biden landslide, and Trump no longer has enough time before the election to meaningfully shift the numbers.

“well that's what the polls say certainly is that it looks like a buying landslide i um and i guess that makes sense i think trump's running out of time to change the polls” View on YouTube

If Trump loses the 2020 election, there is roughly a 20% chance he resigns during the lame-duck period so Pence can pardon him.

“well uh we wouldn't see that unless he lost the election if he loses during the last duck during the lame duck period if he lost maybe 20” View on YouTube

From mid-2021 onward, essentially all unvaccinated people will eventually be infected with the COVID-19 Delta variant.

“I think we're at the point now where if you're not vaccinated, you're going to get you're going to get the delta variant” View on YouTube

Barring an extreme unforeseen event (e.g., major health crisis), Joe Biden will secure enough primary delegates and will be the official Democratic nominee for U.S. president in the 2024 election.

“So unless he changes his mind or there's some act of God, he's going to be the nominee.” View on YouTube

No new major presidential candidate who is not already in the 2024 race as of mid‑February 2024 will successfully enter and become a serious contender for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“in nine months. We're running out of time. I mean, it's entirely too late to be talking about new candidates who aren't even in the race. Not going to happen.” View on YouTube

Within the next decade (2022–2032), it will become feasible for non‑state actors to obtain precision GPS‑guided weapons such that continuously publishing a person's precise GPS coordinates would make it relatively easy to use those weapons to assassinate that person.

“Right now, you have to be a state actor to get Ahold of those weapons. But you can imagine over the next decade that having someone's precise GPS coordinates over a sustained period of time, it would be pretty easy to target them for and not to be dramatic here, but for assassination, that is a security risk.” View on YouTube

In calendar year 2023, for most software companies, new customer business (new bookings) will decline to roughly 50% of their 2022 level.

“So you should expect your new business to be roughly 50% of what it was. Next year it'll be 50% of what it was last year. That's my rule of thumb for most companies. New business down 50%.” View on YouTube

From 2023 through 2024, many small-business customers will go out of business, causing SaaS vendors’ small-business logo churn rates to rise from a historical ~15% annually to approximately 25–30% annually.

“We haven't seen that much logo churn yet. But next year a lot of companies are going to start going out of business and it's going to happen over the next two years. So you're simply going to see logo churn rates, say, among small businesses, go from like a historical norm of 15% to maybe 25 or 30.” View on YouTube

From roughly early 2023 through mid-to-late 2024 (the next 4–6 quarters from December 2022), the macroeconomic environment will present major headwinds for software companies, making it harder for them to sustain high growth without unsustainable spending.

“We're going to have major economic headwinds for the next 4 to 6 quarters. Call it year and a half.” View on YouTube

Kamala Harris’s polling surge in August 2024 is temporary; the release of policy proposals such as grocery price controls will mark the start of a significant decline (“big correction”) in her relative standing against Donald Trump before the November 2024 election.

“But it's a sugar high based on something that's not substantive. I mean, she didn't put forward any proposals. And I think that now that she finally is putting out policy proposals that can be questioned and analyzed and criticized, I think this is going to be the beginning of, I would say, a big correction in her campaign.” View on YouTube

Kamala Harris’s campaign will not be able to avoid media interviews and substantive policy proposals through the November 2024 election. They may largely avoid them until roughly the Democratic National Convention (late August 2024), but within about three months of this August 16, 2024 recording—i.e., by mid‑November 2024—Harris will be doing mainstream media interviews and releasing more detailed economic policy proposals.

“I do think that this strategy can only work for so long... I don't think she can run out the clock for three months without doing interviews. I just think that I think she can do this for another week or so. I think that they're going to run this playbook through the convention, but eventually she's going to have to start doing interviews, and she's going to have to start putting out more substantive policy proposals.” View on YouTube

By roughly three months after this August 16, 2024 recording—i.e., by mid‑November 2024—Kamala Harris will no longer be able to maintain a ‘vibes only’, no‑interview, low‑substance campaign image as a moderate; her actual, more progressive policy positions will become clear to the public.

“So, yeah, I mean, this this idea that she can pretend to be a moderate and just run on vibes with no interviews and no substance proposals. I don't think it's going to work for three months. I think she's going to reveal herself.” View on YouTube

The Ukrainian forces that advanced into Russia’s Kursk region in mid‑2024 will, over time (within roughly a year), suffer heavy losses and be defeated or forced to withdraw by superior Russian forces, rather than establishing a durable strategic foothold there.

“And over time, Russia's just going to mop them up.” View on YouTube

Ukraine’s military position in the war against Russia is unsustainable and is likely to collapse sometime in 2025, with the Kursk offensive—diverting elite troops into Russian territory—accelerating that collapse.

“And what we're on track for is at some point, probably next year, Ukraine is going to collapse. I mean, their position in this war is unsustainable. And taking some of their top troops, feeding them into Kursk, where they can be easily picked off by the Russians, is only going to accelerate that process.” View on YouTube

TikTok will be shut down in the United States in the near future (soon enough that its roughly 100 million U.S. users will lose access and question why it happened).

“100 million people are soon going to be asking when TikTok gets shut down. 100 million people who used it every day are going to be like, why did this happen?” View on YouTube

Over the coming years, AI-powered, fully interactive and personalized education will significantly level global educational opportunities, especially outside the U.S., but this trend will later be constrained in the United States when trial lawyers and related litigation or regulation restrict access to such AI tools by framing them as causing 'AI psychosis.'

“I mean, that's probably what's going to happen is the AI is a great leveler because you can basically get all the world's information at your fingertips in a way that's fully interactive and personalized education... And then some trial lawyers are going to end your ability to get that, because they're going to call that it's AI psychosis.” View on YouTube

Following implementation of President Trump’s announced policies in Washington, D.C. (removal of homeless encampments, cleanup of graffiti, ending zero bail, and imposing adult-level punishments on juvenile offenders committing serious crimes), visible lawlessness and crime levels in D.C. will decline noticeably within a short period after implementation (on the order of months rather than years).

“I think what President Trump has said is, look, first of all, we're going to get rid of the homeless encampments... we're going to stop the zero bail... we're going to start treating these, um, teenage criminals as we're going to punish them... I mean, this is the right direction to go if you want to reverse this lawlessness in D.C., and I think it's going to have an impact very, very quickly. I think it's going to work very quickly.” View on YouTube

If the Trump administration’s crime plan in Washington, D.C. is implemented as described and is perceived to reduce crime, national political narrative in subsequent election cycles will shift such that Republicans can credibly point to D.C. as evidence that their crime policies work better than those of Democrats in major blue cities, strengthening the Republican political position on crime policy in deep-blue urban areas.

“I think they're going to fall into a similar trap here in D.C. because I think this is going to work, and I think it's going to provide Republicans with a very important counterpoint... And I think that D.C. provides that opportunity. If Trump's plan works, I think it'll show that Republicans have the solution on on crime, and it'll hopefully help provide an alternative in these deep blue cities.” View on YouTube

If Democratic leaders continue to publicly oppose Trump’s federal intervention and security/cleanup measures in Washington, D.C., this stance will prove politically harmful to Democrats and advantageous to Trump/Republicans in subsequent national political debates and elections (i.e., Democrats will be perceived as on the wrong side of a popular public-safety issue).

“I think that just politically speaking, that if Democrats keep opposing this, I think they're falling into a trap that Trump has laid for them 100%.” View on YouTube

Over roughly the coming decade following widespread AI adoption (starting mid‑2020s), venture capital as an asset class will experience improved opportunity and performance relative to the previous several years, driven by AI-related disruption and the creation of many new large, valuable companies.

“My guess is that we're in a pretty good time for VC because of AI and the disruption it's causing and the potential for value creation, it's it's creating it's sort of restocking the pond with opportunities for many more big companies to be created. And I think ultimately they'll be very good for the asset class.” View on YouTube

Conditional on its current growth and valuation trend continuing, OpenAI’s private or public equity valuation will reach approximately $1 trillion within a couple of years of this August 2025 discussion (i.e., by around 2027).

“They could be $1 trillion company in a couple of years if if the trend continues.” View on YouTube

If the Delaware court awards the plaintiff’s lawyers in the Tesla pay-package case billions of dollars in fees, Delaware will see a significant loss of its status as the premier U.S. state for corporate incorporation, with a material shift of new or re-domiciling corporations choosing other jurisdictions instead of Delaware.

“If they award these lawyers billions of dollars, which is what they're seeking, no one's going to want to do business in Delaware anymore because it subjects you to these stick up heists by trial lawyers. So I think that's going to be the next big shoe to drop is what are these trial lawyers get awarded?” View on YouTube

From mid‑2023 through the end of 2024, the US will avoid entering a recession (i.e., achieve a soft landing), and the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates sometime in 2024.

“over the last few weeks is just more and more evidence that it could be a soft landing, that we may not have a recession and we might even get rate cuts next year.” View on YouTube

If Ripple’s favorable ruling against the SEC stands, the default strategy for crypto companies facing SEC actions will shift to refusing settlements and fighting cases in court.

“Then for sure, the standard operating procedure is I don't want to know settlements.” View on YouTube

U.S. industrial production capacity for 155mm artillery shells will be increased to approximately 90,000 shells per month sometime between 2025 and 2028.

“They've scaled that to somewhere Between 20 and 30,000 a month now, and they're saying that they will get to about 90,000 in somewhere between 2025 and 2028.” View on YouTube

Fully replacing entire functional teams in startups (e.g., full sales, marketing, or engineering teams) with AI systems will not be possible for at least several years after April 2023; it will not occur within mere months.

“I think we're still a ways away from startups being able to replace entire teams of people... Well, it's in the years I think for sure we don't know how many years.” View on YouTube

Within the near term (implicit few-year horizon from April 2023), AI tools will enable hobbyists and amateurs to input a screenplay and automatically generate reasonably good-looking animated movies, but achieving full theatrical-quality, fully AI-generated motion pictures will take significantly longer than two years from April 2023 (i.e., not before April 2025).

“So yeah, in theory, you should be able to train the model where you just give it a screenplay and it outputs essentially an animated movie... So yeah, I think we're close to it now... So yeah, I think we're we're pretty close for, let's call it hobbyists or amateurs to be able to create pretty nice looking movies using these types of tools. But again, I think there's a jump to get to the point where you're just altogether replacing.” View on YouTube

If the United States creates an FDA-style regulatory body for AI in the near term (before clear technical standards exist), then U.S. innovation in AI will slow substantially and other countries that do not impose equivalent constraints will advance their AI capabilities faster than the U.S. and surpass it in AI leadership.

“And what we will do by racing to create a new FDA is destroying American innovation in the sector. And other countries will not slow down. They will beat us to the punch here.” View on YouTube

If a new centralized AI regulatory body is created to approve AI models/apps, the approval process will primarily advantage politically connected incumbents, and the overall rate of AI innovation (e.g., number and diversity of new entrants and products) will slow dramatically compared to the preceding permissionless-innovation period.

“This will be beneficial only for political insiders who will basically be able to get their projects and their apps approved with a huge deadweight loss for the system, because innovation will completely slow down.” View on YouTube

As AI advances, law-enforcement agencies will adopt AI-based tools and copilots that make large-scale malicious activities such as mass phishing-site creation relatively easy to detect and counter, reducing the advantage that AI-empowered criminals might otherwise gain.

“So there will be new tools that law enforcement will be able to use. And if somebody is creating phishing sites at scale, they're going to be probably pretty easy for law enforcement eyes to detect. So let's not forget that there'll be copilots written for our law enforcement authorities. They'll be able to use that to basically detect and fight crime.” View on YouTube

If Israel responds to the Hamas attacks by effectively "leveling" Gaza (a maximal, indiscriminate military response), this will trigger a much wider regional war in the Middle East and could even escalate into a world war.

“but I do think that if the reaction is this, let's call it the Lindsey Graham level, the place reaction, I think that could set off a much wider regional war or even a world war.” View on YouTube

No comprehensive or "larger" peace/normalization deal in the Middle East will be achieved until the political status and treatment of the Palestinians is substantively addressed (e.g., via some form of two‑state solution or equivalent resolution).

“I don't think we're going to get to a larger deal in the Middle East. We're not going to resolve all these problems until this long festering problem of the treatment of the Palestinians is is dealt with.” View on YouTube

As of late 2023, if an additional major conflict or front opens (beyond Ukraine), the United States will face serious constraints supplying conventional munitions because its ammunition stockpiles are already dangerously low.

“So the US is already dangerously low on ammunition, and that's before we get potentially another war or another front in this larger conversation that's happening.” View on YouTube

Following Israel’s declaration of war against Hamas/Gaza in October 2023, there is a significant risk that the conflict will escalate and spiral into a broader regional war involving multiple Middle Eastern countries.

“Well, we're in a situation now where Israel might be on the precipice of, well, they've declared war against Gaza, and this thing could spiral out of control and become a regional war.” View on YouTube

If the United States does not reform its defense procurement system (e.g., the current cost‑plus, oligopolistic structure) to dramatically improve efficiency and innovation, it will be unable over the coming years to maintain its global strategic position and reliably support its allies in future conflicts.

“In a world of rising multipolarity where there are other great powers now, in the system where there are going to be more and more global threats. I don't think we have a chance of maintaining our global position and supporting our allies unless we fix this.” View on YouTube

If the United States does not adopt policies focused on de‑escalating conflicts, it will experience significant difficulty asserting its interests and managing security in an emerging multipolar world over the coming years.

“We're already mired in the Ukraine proxy war. Now Israel is on the brink. We need smarter people and smarter thinking. In Washington, we are no longer the only superpower. We're going to have a really tough time in a multipolar world if we do not look for ways to de-escalate conflict when we can.” View on YouTube

Given current (October 2023) economic and international conditions and ongoing lawsuits, Donald Trump will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election easily (“waltz into the White House”), despite spending most of the next year tied up in court and being largely unable to campaign in the usual way; voter fatigue with the situation will override these constraints.

“by the way, this rate, the way things are going in this country right now, both economically and internationally, he's going to waltz into the white House. He's going to spend all his time in the next year in, in the courthouses battling all these lawsuits, the lawfare against him. He's not going to be able to campaign. And it won't even matter because people are going to be so done with this.” View on YouTube

Following this May 2022 conversation, U.S. residential home prices will begin to decline as rising mortgage rates force sellers to drop prices; the downturn in home prices will materialize in the ensuing housing data (within the next few quarters after May 2022).

“I think home prices that's coming, Jason, because like you said, mortgages are going up.” View on YouTube

Over the several months following May 2022, U.S. consumers will be significantly hurt financially (e.g., via higher borrowing costs, increased use of credit, and reduced real wages), becoming the next major area of economic weakness after the financial market correction.

“the consumer in general, that's the next shoe to drop here, because right now it's been you had this sort of financial correction... Now I think you've got a bunch of different factors. They're going to really hurt the consumer over the next several months.” View on YouTube

Following the roughly 14% destruction of global wealth observed by May 2022, a large recession in the real economy is inevitable and will materialize in the near term (within the subsequent 1–2 years).

“I think like recession now is just inevitable. You point you can't have 14% of global wealth wiped out practically overnight and not have that translate into a big recession.” View on YouTube

U.S. employment has already peaked by May 2022, and the unemployment rate will rise from its then-current lows in the ensuing months.

“Unemployment's going up. I think employment has peaked.” View on YouTube

During the downturn beginning in 2022, venture funding will be available for startups that exhibit high growth and moderate cash burn, while startups with only moderate growth and high burn will be unable to raise capital and will fail or be forced into drastic restructuring.

“So in a weird way... startups with high growth and moderate burn will get funded through this downturn starts with moderate growth and high burn will not get funded.” View on YouTube

Large, traditional venture funds will slow their deployment pace after the 2020–2021 boom; instead of deploying funds in roughly one year, they will revert to a roughly three-year deployment cycle over the coming period.

“However, there will be the big traditional venture funds will have large funds, but they're going to deploy them much more slowly. These one year pace of deployments, they're going to stop... They'll be back to three.” View on YouTube

After the 2022 market correction, crossover hedge funds that had aggressively entered late-stage private tech (e.g., Tiger Global, D1, Coatue) will effectively withdraw from new private tech investing for an extended period, leaving traditional VCs as the primary capital providers.

“the crossover investors are washed out of the system. They're gone. I mean Tiger's already deployed all of its capital. And I don't know when they're going to be back.” View on YouTube

Washington State's new wealth/millionaire tax will produce fiscal damage within 18 to 24 months that is as bad as or worse than California's experience with its own wealth tax.

“So I suspect when you look back on this in 18 or 24 months, it'll be as bad or worse than California.” View on YouTube

By 2028, a national wealth tax modeled on the Bernie Sanders/Ro Khanna proposal will become a standard, mainstream part of the Democratic Party's platform.

“by 28 this national wealth tax will just be a standard part of the Democratic platform. Table stakes... I think that you know the Bernie Sanders Roana position will be the position of the Democratic party.” View on YouTube

Within the next several years, foundational OpenAI-like capabilities (large language models, etc.) will become widely available from multiple vendors and will be at least partially commoditized, reducing durable advantage from the core models themselves.

“you said that these open AI capabilities are eventually going to become commoditized or certainly much more widely available... there'll be multiple players that offer them.” View on YouTube

Following the discovery of classified documents in Biden’s possession, the Department of Justice under Merrick Garland will drop, or significantly scale back, any prosecution of Donald Trump related specifically to his handling of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago.

“I think Merrick Garland now is going to have to drop the prosecution against Trump for the stolen documents, or at least that part of what they're investigating him for.” View on YouTube

In 2026, enterprises will see massive adoption of AI agents (not just chatbots), driven bottom-up by early-adopter employees bringing consumerized AI tools into the workplace rather than top-down corporate initiatives.

“I think that you're going to see massive enterprise adoption of AI, not just chat bots, but agents this year.” View on YouTube

As of May 2023, Sacks predicts that Trump’s CNN town hall performance increases the likelihood that Trump will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

“I do think it makes him more likely to be the nominee.” View on YouTube

Sacks predicts that during the 2024 campaign, if Trump is the Republican nominee, President Biden will largely run a low-key ‘Rose Garden’ campaign, appearing roughly once a week to respond to Trump, and will not actively campaign at a high-energy pace due to lack of vigor.

“He'll do a Rose garden campaign where once a week, he goes in front of the microphones and responds to whatever Trump's latest outrage is. He doesn't have the vigor to campaign, and he won't.” View on YouTube

Sacks predicts that by approximately late 2024, after about 18 months of Trump dominating media coverage, voter fatigue with Trump will lead enough Americans to choose Biden despite concerns about his cognition, resulting in Biden’s reelection if the matchup is Biden vs. Trump.

“I think that it's it's quite possible here that after 18 months of Trump and the media beating each other up, the American people just say, you know what? This Biden guy is totally senile. But I'm like, so tired of the the Trump show. I've got Trump fatigue again. I'm just going to have to go with Biden. And I think I think this is how Biden gets reelected.” View on YouTube

Sacks predicts that by the end of 2023, the Russia–Ukraine war will be an even worse debacle for Ukraine than it appeared in May 2023, implying significantly deteriorated conditions or outcomes for Ukraine.

“So this war is turning into a debacle. I think it could be an even worse debacle by the end of the year.” View on YouTube

Sacks predicts that the U.S. banking turmoil evident in May 2023 will continue and develop into a major fiasco (a serious, extended banking crisis) over the ensuing period (through at least the next several months).

“The economy has a banking crisis going on. It's turning into a big fiasco.” View on YouTube

Sacks predicts that if the 2024 U.S. presidential election is a Biden vs. Trump matchup, the race will be extremely close, effectively a toss-up with no clear favorite heading into the election.

“I think this thing's going to be a nail biter. I think it's going to be a toss up if it's Biden versus Trump.” View on YouTube

When Apple releases the iPhone 16 with an on-device Apple-built LLM powering Siri (without sharing user data with third-party LLMs), it will trigger a major iPhone upgrade cycle, with a very large share of existing iPhone users upgrading specifically for this AI capability.

“I will definitely upgrade to the iPhone 16... assuming that they roll their own LLM and use that to power Siri... assuming Apple gets that right, everyone's going to upgrade their iPhones.” View on YouTube

Within about one year from July 2024, the next generation of leading LLMs (e.g., successors to GPT‑4 and Claude 3) will improve to the point where their practical output quality for applications like Glue is effectively "A+"—substantially better and more consistently reliable than the current B+ level.

“in a year or so we're going to be at the next gen version of all the models... At that point, it's going to be an A plus.” View on YouTube

The Federal Reserve will not implement any interest rate cuts before July 2024; the first potential cut will be in July 2024 or later.

“could lead fed officials to postpone anticipated rate cuts until July or later.” View on YouTube

If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at least once before the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, Joe Biden will lose that election.

“Well, if we if we see a rate hike before the election, I think Biden is toast.” View on YouTube

In the coming years, at least one major lawsuit over AI training on copyrighted content (such as YouTube data or song catalogs) will be filed and fully litigated through the US court system, including conflicting rulings at the circuit court level, followed by a US Supreme Court decision on whether such AI training constitutes fair use; after that Supreme Court ruling, the US Congress will pass follow‑on legislation to codify or adjust the legal framework around AI training and copyright.

“Well, somebody's going to litigate it. Somebody is going to litigate it...we're going to get some messy arbitration around fair use. And it's probably going to work its way up over the different circuit courts. You'll probably get different judgments. And finally, the Supreme Court will resolve it. and then we'll kind of know where things stand. And then and then there'll be a legislative fix.” View on YouTube

If low‑cost attack drones and missiles continue to be used against US or allied naval assets while the US continues relying on very expensive interceptor missiles without a cheaper countermeasure, then over the coming years the cost asymmetry will materially erode the existing military balance of power in favor of these asymmetric drone users (such as the Houthis).

“with the Houthis, they've been firing cheap missiles and drones at our at our ships in the Red sea. And we've been having to spend $2 million air defense missile shooting down 2000 drones. So if that continues and we don't have a good response to this problem, it's going to really change the balance of power.” View on YouTube

Over the next decade, as small autonomous and remotely‑piloted attack drones proliferate (including potential assassination drones), automated gun‑turret systems using computer vision to detect and shoot down drones—like the described Bullfrog system—will become a common and practical method deployed on vehicles and around installations to defend against drone threats.

“The one defense investment I've made is actually in this idea of how do you defend against drones?...imagine in the future that we have these autonomous drones everywhere that are basically assassination drones. How are you going to stop them?...it's maybe not the only way of doing it, but it's a really good way of doing it because you can mount these things to a vehicle.” View on YouTube

Conditional on Donald Trump (or a Republican) winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election and taking office in January 2025, federal antitrust enforcement will ease such that large-scale tech and corporate M&A transactions will be materially easier to get approved in 2025 than under the preceding Democratic administration.

“If you have Trump in office next year, I think that there will be an opening up of of M&A... I think it will be easier to get M&A done next year if you have a Republican administration.” View on YouTube

Elon Musk’s attempt to create a new third political party (the American Party) will fail to become a viable or successful third party in U.S. politics.

“Elon is probably a replacement level politician… the third party stuff is not going to work.”

Candidates backed by Elon Musk’s new American Party will be able to win a few U.S. House of Representatives races but will not win any U.S. Senate races in the foreseeable initial cycles of the party (i.e., in its first election cycles after formation).

“I think you can win a few House races. I think that's doable. I don't think you can win a Senate race.”

If and when a specific large-scale federal workforce reduction plan under Trump’s EO is litigated up to the Supreme Court, the Court will still rule in favor of allowing its implementation, but by a narrower margin than 8–1.

“This one's a little bit easier. It'll get more complicated. Again, like this EO is only approved to allow for the planning. I think the vote might be closer. I think there's still a majority on the Supreme Court for the actual implementation, but it may not be eight one when there's a specific plan that has to navigate its way through the courts again.”

From roughly Q1 2023, there will be a 1–2 year period (through about Q1 2024–Q1 2025) during which companies that raised venture funding in the 2020–2021 peak and are now running out of cash, without sufficient revenue growth or with high burn, will experience distress: specifically, most will face down rounds, restructurings, or will be unable to raise new capital on acceptable terms.

“I think there's going to be a 1 to 2 year period of distress for all these companies that raised in the peak 2020, 2021 and are now running out of money, and they don't have enough revenue, they're not growing fast enough and or their burden is too high. And all of those companies are going to be facing down rounds or restructurings or they're not going to be able to raise well.” View on YouTube

Over the 1–2 years following early 2023 (approximately through early 2025), "bubble" startups that raised at peak 2020–2021 valuations will be in a general period of financial distress, while at the same time there will be a relative resurgence in funding activity and opportunity for newly founded startups.

“So we're going to have probably a 1 to 2 year period of distress for all those bubble companies. While we have a little bit of a resurgence for new companies.” View on YouTube

From mid‑2023 forward, the software and startup sector will experience an ongoing period of distress and pain (e.g., weak demand, layoffs, pressured valuations) that continues beyond the one year of 'software recession' already experienced up to that point.

“I think we're in for a period here of just continued distress and pain, even though the market has sort of normalized or stabilized. Now, again, I just think we've been in a huge software recession for the last year.” View on YouTube

Ezra Klein’s effort to persuade the Democratic Party to embrace a streamlined, less bureaucratic, abundance-oriented governing model (e.g., permitting reform, reduced red tape on public works) will not succeed in substantially shifting the party’s mainstream policy stance in that direction.

“So maybe you're in the wrong party, because I don't think you're going to convince Democrats of this.” View on YouTube