Airtable will eventually conduct an IPO, and that IPO will be well‑received by the market (i.e., it will price and trade at a valuation that can be described as a "nice" outcome, not a disappointment). No specific date is given, but the expectation is in Airtable's next liquidity event window (next several years).
“And I think it'll have a nice IPO at some point when they decide they want to do it.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Airtable has not conducted an IPO as of mid-2026, remaining a private company, so this prediction cannot yet be evaluated.
If Congress were to stop using omnibus/continuing resolutions and instead only pass the 12 regular annual appropriations bills through the normal process, total federal spending would fall to roughly 50–67% of its then-current level (i.e., a reduction of about one‑third to one‑half) over the ensuing budget cycles.
“If they if they just did that, we would probably spend a third to half of less than we do now.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Congress did not eliminate the omnibus/continuing-resolution process; it continued to rely on CRs and omnibus packages through 2023-2026, so the hypothetical spending-reduction scenario was never actually tested.
If an upcoming government shutdown successfully ends the use of omnibus continuing resolutions and forces a return to regular-order appropriations, the change will reduce federal spending by approximately $500 billion relative to the status quo trajectory over the relevant budget period.
“If it stops the CR process, it'll be effective to the tune of about $500 billion. It'll be half $1 trillion effective.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Government shutdowns in this period (including a lengthy one in late 2025) did not durably end the CR process; Congress continued using continuing resolutions afterward, so the predicted savings scenario did not play out as described.
If the U.S. political system does not adopt serious measures to reduce federal budget deficits, then over the coming years long-term interest rates (e.g., 10-year Treasury yields) will remain elevated even if inflation falls and the Federal Reserve cuts short-term policy rates, which in turn will keep the overall cost of capital high and depress long-term innovation and investment in the U.S. economy.
“unless the political system gets serious about reducing deficits, even if inflation comes down, and even if the fed cuts short term rates, you're going to have a problem with long term rates remaining high. And that is going to keep the cost of capital high. And that is going to reduce long term innovation in the economy.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Long-term Treasury yields remained persistently elevated through 2023-2026 even as the Fed cut short-term rates in 2025, reflecting ongoing deficit concerns and keeping the broader cost of capital high.
For U.S. fiscal year 2023, total migrant encounters at the U.S. southern border will reach a new all-time annual record, exceeding the prior high of approximately 2.7 million encounters in 2022.
“given that we've eliminated remain in Mexico and title 42. I don't think anybody seriously doubts that we're headed for a new record.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
FY2023 southern border encounters reached a new all-time annual record of roughly 3.2 million nationwide, surpassing the prior FY2022 high.
Joe Biden’s handling of the border wall issue (including auctioning off unused wall components and then reversing course to build new barriers) is likely to be a significant enough political liability that it could cause him to lose the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
“I think this could cost him the election.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Biden did not run for reelection in 2024 (he withdrew in July 2024), so the border wall issue never became the deciding factor in his personal electoral fate as predicted; Harris lost the general election for other, broader reasons.
Waymo will launch its commercial robotaxi service in Los Angeles in the near term following its 24/7 operations in San Francisco and Phoenix (implied within the next few years after 2023).
“Waymo. Very expensive cars, by the way. They're currently in San Francisco and Phoenix 24 over seven. They're going to launch in LA soon.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Waymo launched its robotaxi service to the public in Los Angeles in November 2024, matching the prediction of an LA launch following its San Francisco and Phoenix operations.
Widespread, fully deployed autonomous robotaxi/self‑driving services (at scale, not just limited pilots) are likely about 10 years away from 2023 (i.e., around 2033) before they are fully rolled out.
“It's obvious that these are getting there. The question is, is I think it's more like ten years before this is fully deployed.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
A roughly 10-year horizon (to around 2033) for full robotaxi deployment at scale is too far out to evaluate as of mid-2026, though expansion has been faster than some expected (LA, Austin, Atlanta, and more cities added by 2025).
Tesla will have a credible Level 4/5 autonomous driving solution (sufficient for fully autonomous operation without human supervision in most conditions) within 4–5 years from 2023, i.e., by roughly 2027–2028.
“Tesla is so close to it, so I do trust that they'll have a credible solution in the next 4 or 5 years.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Tesla continued to iterate its Full Self-Driving software through 2025-2026 with substantial improvements, but a fully credible Level 4/5 autonomous solution operating without supervision at scale had not been achieved by the predicted 2027-2028 window as of mid-2026.
High-reliability robotaxi / autonomous driving deployments in non‑grid, bad‑weather regions like the U.S. Northeast (e.g., Boston) are more than 10 years away from 2023 (so not before ~2033), while in dry, flat, grid-based, good‑weather cities like Phoenix and parts of California and Austin, such deployments are viable now (early 2020s).
“the northeast will be the last place when you go to Boston or you know, you're in other places that don't have a grid based system and you have ice and snow. This stuff is ten plus years out, but in a dry place with consistent weather like California, Phoenix, etc. it's it's now right?”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Robotaxi expansion did prioritize dry, grid-friendly cities (Phoenix, LA, Austin, Atlanta) over harsher-weather regions, generally consistent with the prediction, though it is too early to confirm the Northeast is still more than a decade away.
Multiple additional venues based on the Las Vegas Sphere concept will be built, resulting in dozens of such Sphere‑like immersive venues worldwide within roughly the next decade after 2023.
“my prediction on the sphere, I think there'll be like dozens of these things soon enough.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
No dozens of new Sphere-like venues have been built as of mid-2026; additional Sphere venues have been proposed (e.g., in Abu Dhabi) but construction of many such venues has not materialized at that scale yet.
Future Sphere‑like immersive venues will be built at substantially lower capex than the original (~$2–2.5B), with smaller versions costing on the order of a few hundred million dollars each, and these will be rolled out widely (many installations globally, analogous to IMAX theater proliferation) over the coming decade or so.
“It'll get cheaper and cheaper over time. The first one was, what, two, two, $2.5 billion? They'll make smaller versions of it. It'll be a couple hundred million. It's almost like Imax theaters. They'll roll them out all over.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Sphere Entertainment has explored smaller, lower-cost venue concepts and international expansion, but a wide global rollout comparable to IMAX theater proliferation had not occurred by mid-2026.