Jason Calacanis

In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, (1) Joe Biden’s Democratic Party will lose, and (2) the January 6th investigations will severely damage Donald Trump politically, leading him to decide not to run for president again.

“I went with Ron DeSantis with you sacks...And I think Trump is not going to want to run. And that brings me to my biggest political loser for 2022...I think Biden is going to lose the midterms. And I think Trump is going to get destroyed with this January 6th thing and bow out and not run again.” View on YouTube

In 2022, Disney will be a major corporate winner: its business (including Disney+, theme parks, and IP like Marvel/Star Wars) will experience a significant surge in performance, leading to share-price and/or valuation outperformance relative to expectations at the end of 2021.

“Disney was my biggest corporate winner for 2022...I think Disney is going to have a huge surge. I think they're undervalued.” View on YouTube

In 2022, Millennials and Gen Z in the U.S. will see substantial gains in economic power and independence—through increased entrepreneurship, job mobility, and investing/trading success—making them the biggest demographic economic ‘winners’ of the year.

“my number one for this category of biggest business winner for 2022 was Millennials and Gen Z...I think that those two generations have woken up, and I think they're going to be the biggest winners in 2022” View on YouTube

During 2022, there will be a major shakeout in crypto: most projects that fail to ship a real, usable product in 2022 will lose significant value and investor interest.

“Biggest business loser for 2022...I think crypto projects that actually don't deliver a product in 2022 are just going to be, um, lost...it's going to be a big shake out there.” View on YouTube

In 2022, the United States will experience a booming economy and a notable increase in global influence and perceived exceptionalism, contrary to narratives of American decline, making 2022 a broadly ‘great year’ for the U.S.

“My most contrarian belief is...that American influence and exceptionalism is going to soar...our economy is going to. Boom. Uh, and we will prove once again that we're the greatest country and economy in the world...I think it's going to be a great year. I think it's going to be a great year.” View on YouTube

In 2022, early-stage startup equity (roughly pre-Series-A stage) will be the best-performing asset class among major asset options.

“I also picked early stage startups because that's where the magic happens. I picked early stage like right before series A... So my choice for best performing asset of 2022 is still early stage startups.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2022, U.S. accredited investor rules will have materially changed to allow people to qualify by passing a test rather than meeting income/wealth thresholds, and a clear legal regulatory framework for crypto will be implemented; together these regulatory shifts will enable significantly expanded, globally accessible capital formation mechanisms (e.g., broader syndicates, DAOs, tokenized fund interests).

“I had, uh, most anticipated trend of 2022 being the accredited investor. Laws are going to change and evolve. And it might just be you take a test and you're now accredited. It doesn't matter if you won the lottery or you make 200,000 a year, and a legal crypto framework is going to happen, I think, at the same time. So those regulations combined are going to empower really interesting capital formation, uh, on a global basis...” View on YouTube

Amazon’s big-budget Tolkien-based prequel series (The Lord of the Rings universe show) will premiere in 2022.

“there's also this, um, token, uh, series that's coming out, the prequel, I think, that Amazon is spending $1 billion on. And I think that's landing in 2022.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2020, at least one mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine will be available with efficacy in the range of 90–95%.

“He said, by the end of the year, we'd have vaccines and they would have because of this mRNA, if I remember correctly, 90, 95% efficacy.” View on YouTube

In the United States, the first two authorized COVID-19 vaccines (Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) will together supply approximately 40 million doses in December 2020, 50 million doses in January 2021, and 60 million doses in February 2021.

“And all of these have 90 to 95% efficacy, and that there are going to be 40, 50 and 60 million doses in December, January and February just from the first two in America alone.” View on YouTube

By summer 2021, in-person conferences and international leisure travel (e.g., trips to Europe from the U.S.) will have resumed to a meaningful extent.

“we are all going to be scarred for life thinking, you know, when is the next coronavirus?... we are going to be at conferences or going traveling to Europe or whatever it is next summer.” View on YouTube

For a future COVID-like pandemic, a follow-on 'Warp Speed 2.0' program would be able to respond significantly faster than Operation Warp Speed did in 2020, leveraging mRNA vaccine technology (implied expectation: vaccine candidates designed within days and deployed much more rapidly).

“when the next Covid comes. How quickly will Warp Speed 2.0 go?” View on YouTube

The United Kingdom will begin the first human COVID-19 challenge trials in January 2021.

“in the UK, they will start doing challenge trials for those people who don't know what a challenge trial is... in the UK they're going to be doing the first challenge trials in January.” View on YouTube

At some unspecified point in the future (no explicit timeframe given), Iran will experience a severe internal conflict described as a "crazy civil war" as its very young population challenges the existing regime; Jason also implies that this transition will occur before or without Iran successfully deploying nuclear weapons in that conflict.

“That country's barely holding on. It's going to be a crazy civil war. And let's just hope they don't have nuclear bombs when that civil war.” View on YouTube

Each self-driving car deployed will displace roughly four driver jobs, and each humanoid/Optimus-style robot deployed in a factory will displace roughly five to six factory jobs.

“For every self-driving car we put on the road, that's four drivers who are going to have their jobs retired. They'll be displaced. For every Optimus robot or humanoid robot that eventually makes it into a factory, that'll be five or six factory jobs.” View on YouTube

By summer 2021, large in‑person parties and festivals such as raves and Burning Man will resume, with Burning Man 2021 experiencing exceptionally high attendance and intensity compared to prior years ("the greatest Burning Man ever").

“I think like David. Come the summer of next summer, people are going to be at a rave with freibergs, you know, custom made Molly or whatever he's making during this downtime going absolutely bonkers. I think Burning Man next year becomes like the the greatest Burning Man ever. It'll be it'll be the burn of of of all burns.” View on YouTube

Any Trump-backed media network that attempts to compete with Fox News will fail to secure strong backing, will resemble a weaker version of Breitbart, and will shut down within 24 months of its launch.

“Not only is he not going to be a kingmaker, he will not be able to get the backing for this network. It'll be Breitbart Lite, and it'll be shut down within 24 months.” View on YouTube

Despite being one of the most Democratic-controlled states, California will lag behind politically mixed and even some Republican-controlled states in passing comprehensive police reform legislation in the wake of 2020's protests.

“california will be one of the laggards” View on YouTube

Jason Calacanis predicts that in the subsequent years, early‑stage venture investors will shift their primary success metric from counting private "unicorn" valuations to counting SPAC deals and other public listings achieved by their portfolio companies.

“I think this is going to be the new thing for early stage investors is we're not going to count unicorns anymore. We're going to count SPACs. We're going to count public listings” View on YouTube

Jason Calacanis forecasts that by the time of the 2020 U.S. presidential debates (late September and October 2020), U.S. reported daily COVID‑19 deaths will have declined to a few hundred per day (roughly ~400/day at the first debate and ~200/day by the second), many schools will have reopened in October 2020, and there may be at least one credible vaccine announcement or widespread rapid-testing solution, enabling Donald Trump to credibly claim in the debates that he has effectively solved COVID while the stock market and broader economy are near all‑time highs.

“I think this is a setup for Trump to go into the first debate with, you know, well under, you know, 6 or 700 deaths a day, and then the next debate in October with, you know, call it 3 or 400 deaths a day and basically declare that he did solve Covid... We're going to come into the first debate. What if it's 400 deaths a day? And then the second debate, it's 200 deaths a day, and then our kids are back in school in October... And what if he actually does have a vaccine that has somewhat of credibility or any of these high speed testing machines? Come on. I mean, this could be a setup of all setups for him to just, you know, drop the microphone. Hey, look, the economy is at an all time high and Covid deaths are at an all time low” View on YouTube

Jason predicts Josh Shapiro's 2026 re-election bid for Pennsylvania governor will be a near-certain win ("a shoe-in").

“You're going to run for governor again. Assume that's going to be a shoe-in. You know, you got to do the work, but” View on YouTube

A predicts that the week immediately following election night 2020 (approximately Nov 4–11, 2020) could see significant political violence in the United States.

“I think the next week could be incredibly violent.” View on YouTube

Jason predicts that Joe Biden will ultimately win the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

“I'm still sticking with Biden.” View on YouTube

Over the coming years, a large number of mid‑level tech workers (the “massive middle,” including developers) will move out of the Bay Area/California to lower‑tax, lower‑cost locations such as Reno and Austin, significantly reducing the region’s mid‑tier tech workforce.

“you could have this massive middle leave too, that nobody anticipates. And if all the developers said, you know what, I want to be on the Reno side of Lake Tahoe. You know, I want to be in Austin or wherever. I'm paying less taxes, and I'm making the same money, and I got a better quality of life.” View on YouTube

New York State and California are on a long‑term economic and social decline (“death spiral”) that will continue unless their governments materially change course to represent residents’ interests over special interests.

“I think it's a death spiral for New York and for California, where unless the representatives in government start to represent the people who are voting and living there and voting their interests as opposed to the special interest...” View on YouTube

Global abject poverty will be eliminated within the remaining lifetime of the speakers (implying within the next several decades, roughly by the late 21st century), except in countries that are ruled by dictatorships, where abject poverty will persist.

“People living in abject poverty will probably end in our lifetime. You know, the only places it won't end is in places with dictators.” View on YouTube

AI will play an increasingly important role in education, and teachers unions will strongly resist its adoption, complicating US schools' ability to keep pace with education systems abroad that adapt AI more readily.

“But I I predict AI will play an important role and I predict that the teachers unions are going to fight tooth and nail from seeing AI show up and it's going to challenge our ability to kind of provide this advantage for our students.” View on YouTube

The All-In podcast besties will eventually launch a media company/venture beyond the podcast itself, even though no LLC agreement has yet been signed.

“But joking aside, I still think that uh it'll become inevitable.” View on YouTube

In the coming years after mid‑2022, U.S. (and likely other) authorities will launch extensive criminal and civil investigations into crypto (district attorneys and DOJ), leading to very heavy regulation of the crypto industry—making it one of the most heavily regulated sectors and significantly reducing profit and innovation opportunities compared with the pre‑2022 period.

“All of this is going to inspire a lot of district attorneys and DOJ activity. The discovery is going to be bonkers, and it's all going to be regulated to the point of in which it kills a lot of the opportunity. I think this is going to become the most regulated space we've ever seen.” View on YouTube

Peloton, which as of mid-2022 has roughly a $3.1B market cap, ~$879M in cash, and about $1.4B in inventory, will be acquired or taken private ("taken out") rather than remain an independent public company, likely within the next couple of years as its cash position deteriorates.

“They have a $3.1 billion market cap. They've only got $879 million worth of cash. I'm just looking at these numbers... and they have a billion foreign inventory. That company is going to get taken out” View on YouTube

Jason Calacanis predicts that President Joe Biden will not complete his first term in office due to age-related inability to function, and that as a result Kamala Harris will ascend to the presidency, making her the first female U.S. president, before the end of Biden’s elected term in January 2025.

“The prediction was made because I thought Biden wasn't going to make it through the first term because he's so old and that he might not be able to function... I mean, I think I might stand by that prediction.” View on YouTube

San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin and other prominent progressive local officials implementing the "woke socialist" policies in San Francisco will be removed from office through recall elections or subsequent votes, with these removals occurring in the next election/recall cycles following this Dec 2021 episode (i.e., by around 2024).

“Chesa Boudin and all of these whack jobs are all going to get voted out and recalled.” View on YouTube

Twitter’s monetizable user base (or comparable primary user metric) will grow to roughly 300 million users in the coming years from the December 2021 vantage point.

“Twitter is down this year too. Right. Is going to go to 300 million.” View on YouTube

Disney+ will eventually surpass Netflix in scale or market position (e.g., subscribers or overall streaming dominance) in the future, starting from the state of the market in late 2021.

“and I think they're going to have an absolute killer future... I think they're going to roll over Netflix.” View on YouTube

Disney+’s content library (Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, Disney IP) will drive an exceptionally strong year for the service in 2022 in terms of releases and engagement.

“this library is going to have a ridiculous 2022.” View on YouTube

By around 2031, DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations) will be broadly legalized as investment/capital-formation vehicles, and DAO-based fundraises will scale from the ~$40M ConstitutionDAO experiment to raises on the order of hundreds of millions to multiple billions of dollars for progressively larger projects.

“I say dowse because I believe that they will become legal and global capital formation for the first time on an instant basis will exist. And I believe 40 million is the dry run for the Constitution. 400,000,004 billion will happen in the next ten years to do bigger and bigger challenges.” View on YouTube

Joe Biden will serve only a single term as U.S. president and will not be re-elected in 2024 (i.e., he will no longer be president after January 2029 and will not win the 2024 election).

“I think that this presidency is one and done. Obviously to everybody.” View on YouTube

Starting from the week after this episode (late December 2021), the All-In podcast will release new episodes every week with no skipped weeks, with releases occurring every Friday night.

“Okay, everybody, we'll see you all next week for 2022. Predictions. Our promise to you. No weeks off for the besties. We're going to be with you every Friday night.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump, if reelected, will ultimately not implement the broad, aggressive tariff plan he is currently talking about on the campaign trail.

“Do we really buy he's going to do this tariff thing anyway. Like it seems like that's a bit of pandering, maybe to the voter base. It sounds like a great solution, right? But I don't think he's going to do it.” View on YouTube

Jason predicts that the ongoing stock market decline associated with COVID-19 (as of March 18–19, 2020) will reach roughly a 50% correction from prior peak levels before it is over.

“And we are looking like this is going to be, uh, a Uh, a 50% correction or something like that.” View on YouTube

Jason predicts that startup founders should expect essentially no new fundraising to be possible for at least the next 3–6 months from March 2020.

“assume it's going to that no money is going to get raised for the next 3 or 6 months at a minimum.” View on YouTube

By approximately six weeks after March 17–18, 2020 (around late April 2020), people in at least some parts of the United States will again be allowed to eat inside restaurants, subject to health checks such as temperature screening and/or proof of COVID‑19 status.

“Six weeks from now will be in restaurants.” View on YouTube

Within six months after mid‑July 2022, additional frontier or emerging market countries will experience Sri Lanka–style crises or collapses (“other dominoes”).

“Yeah. And this is the canary in the coal mine. I think we're going to see Freiberg. I don't know what you think is going to happen over the next six months, but there's going to be other dominoes. Certainly.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2022, typical US mortgage rates will rise to approximately 6–7%.

“So we're going to see mortgage rates probably go six 7% towards the end of the year.” View on YouTube

The pre-recorded SNL sketch with the premise 'FOMO Capital' from Elon Musk's hosting week will be released in the future as a digital short (a 'cut for time' online video).

“there was one they recorded, which I think will come out as a digital short, and the premise is FOMO capital” View on YouTube

Continuing the then-current mix of elevated unemployment benefits, stimulus, and crypto gains (described as a UBI experiment) will lead to negative or significantly throttled U.S. economic growth because it will reduce labor-force participation.

“We are now running a dry run with cryptocurrency and, you know, stimulus, a UBI experiment. And the result of this UBI experiment is, uh, negative economic growth or a throttled economic growth. We cannot be productive if people don't want to work and contribute.” View on YouTube

2027 will be defined by humanoid robotics reaching consumers, and Tesla's Optimus will become so significant that it eclipses Tesla's identity as a car company, with Elon Musk producing a billion units.

“I would dub 2027 as robotics, humanoid robotics specifically... I saw Optimus 3. I can tell you now, nobody will remember that Tesla ever made a car. They will only remember the Optimus and that he is going to make a billion of those.” View on YouTube

In the summer of 2024, Democrats will execute a rapid, improvised primary process with roughly five debates over about ten weeks to choose a new nominee; Joe Biden will resign from the presidency before the 2024 election, elevating Kamala Harris to president; Harris and others (e.g., Dean Phillips) will compete in this speed‑run primary; the eventual Democratic nominee emerging from this process will go on to defeat Donald Trump decisively in the November 2024 general election.

“Here's what will happen. Freeburg. They're going to do all caps, all caps. Locks. Alert. Must credit Nostradamus. They're going to do a Democratic primary speed run. Here's what's going to happen. They're going to do five debates in ten weeks. And then whoever wins wins. Kamala. He's going to resign. Kamala becomes president. Kamala gets to, um, run, run. She gets to speed run like everybody else. Dean Phillips gets to come in. Everybody speed runs it. The they take over the media. The media will go crazy over the summer. Massive ratings boom. And we have a winner come in and they demolish Trump.” View on YouTube

Within 5–10 years of this September 1, 2022 episode (i.e., by roughly 2027–2032), advances in robotics and AI will eliminate on the order of tens of millions of manual labor jobs globally (or at least in advanced economies), including roles like fast-food prep (e.g., French fries) and similar repetitive manual work.

“And there's companies doing this now for French fries. It's over like we are within, you know, I think five, ten years of a lot of these jobs. We're talking tens of millions of manual labor jobs being gone.” View on YouTube

The Trump administration will implement a very large direct financial support or stimulus program (of the type described: multi-trillion-dollar loans or stipends to individuals and small businesses) in order to protect the economy and thereby improve Trump’s 2020 reelection prospects.

“100%. Yeah, 100% certainty that Trump will do something like this because he wants to save his presidency.” View on YouTube

Over the next several years, institutional accumulation of single‑family homes combined with low mortgage rates and constrained supply will trigger broad political and social backlash in the United States; this will either (a) cause significant net migration from high‑regulation states such as California and New York to pro‑development states like Texas, or (b) force high‑regulation states to substantially relax development and zoning restrictions (e.g., allowing much more building in places like Sacramento) in response to the pressure.

“I think what's happening now becomes the catalyst to break the NIMBYism. If all these blackrocks are buying up all the homes, if young people and young families can't buy a home despite mortgage rates being ridiculously low, and despite them having the money to do it and the desire to do it, then that's going to create a massive societal upheaval, I believe. And then that's going to either drive people to other states like Texas is benefiting because they're pro-development. It's going to catalyze the massive movement of people out of New York, out of California, whatever states are, are giving too much red tape. It's going to drive people to those states, because that's where the housing people are going to be built, or those states are going to crack under the pressure and say, you know what? We're going to let you build in Sacramento.” View on YouTube

Within the coming years, U.S. policy will move toward mandatory public disclosure of at least high‑level individual tax information and the adoption of some form of minimum tax or wealth tax on individuals with large asset holdings.

“So I think the way the United States is going is we're going to force people to publish their tax records, and we're going to force some sort of minimum for people with holdings, aka a wealth tax.” View on YouTube

Following the 2021 Bitcoin price drawdown of roughly 50%, increasing "Bitcoin toxicity" and maximalist behavior will deter new participants, damage Bitcoin’s broader appeal, and materially undermine the long‑term success and growth of the Bitcoin project relative to the wider crypto ecosystem.

“So Bitcoin toxicity is now a thing. And it's actually I believe making the movement um toxic to people. And people are not going to want to participate. So it's actually collapsing the project. People do not want to be involved in toxicity. And people think that there's many ways to win in crypto. There are. So the crypto community, because of the recent loss of 50%, I think now is in a death spiral of toxicity.” View on YouTube

Assuming Trump’s tariff program continues at current scope, cumulative U.S. federal revenue from these tariffs will total at least $1 trillion over the 10 years following their full implementation (i.e., by around 2035).

“These tariffs have been tremendously unpopular in the business sector... but they have on the other side, generated over $150 billion in revenue and a couple of short months so they could generate trillions of dollars in the next decade, according to estimates.” View on YouTube

By the resolution date of the referenced Polymarket contract on tariffs (described as paying out if tariffs generate more than $250 billion in revenue, presumably over calendar year 2025), total U.S. federal tariff revenue in the specified period will exceed $250 billion, causing the contract to resolve as ‘Yes’.

“Here's your polymarket. Will tariffs generate greater than $250 billion. It's uh peaked at like 30%. It's come back down to five. Most people are betting. So this could be a case of free money if people want to go get it on Polymarket, because it has a pretty good chance of hitting that.” View on YouTube

The fourth All In Summit in Los Angeles will occur soon after this recording, and video content from the event, including talks by surprise speakers, will be released publicly within one to two weeks after the event.

“We have to get back to work and get to Los Angeles for the amazing fourth edition of the All In Summit. It's going to be amazing and all the great content, including some surprise speakers that'll be released over the next week or two after the event.” View on YouTube

By approximately 10 years from the podcast date (around 2035), the occupation of cab driver (human-driven taxis as a job category) will largely cease to exist.

“We all agree on that. We're seeing robo taxis start to hit the streets. I don't think anybody believes that being a cab driver is going to exist as a job ten years from now.” View on YouTube

Over the next 10–20 years there will be a competitive race among major tech companies to make consumer AR work at scale, and VR will primarily serve as an intermediate step rather than the dominant end-state platform.

“So I think there's going to be a race for who can get AR to work. And VR is just like kind of a waypoint on the way there.” View on YouTube

Apple will intentionally bypass building a major VR platform and focus directly on AR, and Google will also prioritize going directly to AR rather than VR as its primary immersive platform strategy.

“And so I think Apple is skipped VR on purpose and they're going to AR. I think Google is basically going to go directly to AR.” View on YouTube

Robinhood will not collapse like Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns did in 2008; instead, the company will survive the GameStop crisis and successfully get through this period of stress.

“And they will not be they will get through this.” View on YouTube

Robinhood will successfully ride out the GameStop-related turmoil (including the trading restrictions and liquidity issues) and continue operating afterward.

“And this. And they will. I believe Robinhood will ride it out because they throttled the number of people coming to the platform.” View on YouTube

After Elon Musk takes Twitter private, the company will eventually go public again at a valuation roughly 5x higher than the take-private valuation (around a fivefold increase from the 2022 deal price), although no specific timeframe is given.

“I think it goes public again and it goes to five times the valuation.” View on YouTube

The All-In Summit event they are about to hold in Miami (their first summit) will also be their last; there will not be a subsequent All-In Summit after this one.

“We will see you in Miami, which will be absolutely fun and thrilling. Sold out our first all in summit and last. Uh, because I don't know who the fuck's going to do this work. Next time.” View on YouTube

Under Elon Musk’s ownership, Twitter will be turned around within a few years, becoming a massively profitable company (generating substantial positive net income versus prior losses) and the platform’s bot problem will be largely cleaned up in that same short timeframe.

“But there's no doubt that I think Elon can turn this around pretty quickly and make it massively profitable, I think, and clean up the bot problem very quickly.” View on YouTube

If the Trump administration continues policies such as deporting alleged gang members to El Salvador’s harsh prison without sufficient due process and promoting it in punitive videos, Republicans will lose the next U.S. midterm elections in 2026.

“And this is why I predict this is why they will lose the midterms if they continue to do this type of stuff.” View on YouTube

Within 30–60 days of the earlier episode being recorded (the clip they replayed), the Democratic Party will replace Joe Biden with a different presidential candidate ('a switcheroo').

“I believe that's what's going to happen in the next 30 to 60 days. So I'm predicting... There's going to be a switcheroo... 100%.” View on YouTube

In the then-upcoming presidential debate referenced in the replayed clip, Donald Trump will decisively outperform Joe Biden, Biden’s support in the polls will fall to around 30%, and subsequently Democratic Party leadership will orchestrate a ‘graceful’ withdrawal by Biden and replace him with another candidate.

“I think Trump's going to demolish him in a debate. I think he'll sink to 30% in the polls. And then the Democrats will find a way to give him a graceful out, and then they'll field somebody else.” View on YouTube

From June 29, 2024, within 30 days (by around July 29, 2024), Joe Biden will no longer be an active candidate in the 2024 presidential race (i.e., he will drop out or be replaced).

“the hot swaps coming. I just I'm telling you right now, he is not going to be in this race in the next 30 days.” View on YouTube

Following the June 27, 2024 debate, Joe Biden will leave office before his term ends, Kamala Harris will become President for roughly four months and will be celebrated as the first female president, then she will announce she is not running for election (citing family or similar reasons), and the Democratic Party will instead put forward two new, more moderate candidates to contest the 2024 presidential election, with that new general‑election race effectively beginning about 15 days after Biden exits.

“what's going to happen right now, I guarantee you, is he's out. We're going to have President Kamala. She's going to get her flowers for four months as she gets to be the first female president of the United States. Then she steps out of the way. She decides she's not going to run because she's got things to do with her family. And there will be two new people who will be moderates. And then the real election starts in about 15 days.” View on YouTube

Within 72 hours of June 29, 2024, Barack Obama will personally speak with Joe Biden and, as a result of that intervention, Biden will agree to step down as the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate (the ‘hot swap’ will occur).

“Obama's going to give him a call. I guarantee you Obama is going to talk to him in the next 72 hours, guarantee the hot swap happens.” View on YouTube

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Jason will not cast his vote for Joe Biden.

“I am not voting for Biden. I have eliminated Biden as a possibility. I was waiting to see what happened last night.” View on YouTube

In September 2025, Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve will implement a 25‑basis‑point cut to the federal funds rate.

“It's categorical he'll do it in September. He's going to do it 25 in September.” View on YouTube

Trump and Republicans will lose the 2026 midterm elections, leading to increased political gridlock and chaos.

“I think Trump's going to lose the midterms and we're going to get to more chaos again” View on YouTube

If Tesla successfully develops its humanoid robot, Elon Musk (via his companies) will be the initial major customer, deploying the first large batches (on the order of thousands of units) in Tesla factories, Boring Company tunnels, and potentially for space-related construction (e.g., Mars or space-station work).

“He's the customer of the robot, so he understands what the spec should be because he has so many robots working in the factories. So he's going to buy the first 1000 to go colonize Mars, or work at a space station to build shit in space, and is going to have them working in the Tesla factory. And for the Boring Company carrying rocks out of tunnels.” View on YouTube

In the United States, permitting and constructing any new nuclear power plant will continue to take multiple decades from initiation to operation under the existing regulatory regime.

“we can't even put a new nuclear power plant in this country without it taking decades” View on YouTube

As of 2021, China is close to experiencing significant revolutionary upheaval (i.e., large‑scale domestic revolt against the current CCP regime) in the near to medium term due to escalating internal repression across many dimensions.

“I think China is on the brink of having a revolution.”

Even if the CCP regime does not fall, China will experience noticeable revolutionary movements and episodes of serious social unrest in coming years as a reaction to current policies.

“No, I don't think the revolution is going to necessarily overturn China. I think you're going to see revolutionary movements.”

Members of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers who were involved in January 6th and later pardoned or released will commit future acts of violence that are worse than their prior conduct on January 6th, in the coming years.

“These are some seriously bad hombres, the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, and so don't be surprised if they do something worse.” View on YouTube

When OpenAI and Jony Ive ultimately reveal their hardware device, its primary form factor will be either a wearable pendant or smart glasses (i.e., not a phone, puck, desktop device, etc.).

“It's definitely going to be a pendant or glasses. It's got to be those two form factors.” View on YouTube

Investigative reporting that identifies a Wuhan Institute of Virology researcher performing gain‑of‑function research as Covid-19 patient zero (as reported by Michael Shellenberger and picked up by the Wall Street Journal in June 2023) will eventually receive a Pulitzer Prize for its coverage.

“Another conspiracy theory proven true. And will wind up being a Pulitzer.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump will participate in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries, will debate Ron DeSantis, and may win those primaries (speaker expresses belief that Trump has a real chance to win the nomination over DeSantis).

“despite all this, Trump is still viable. I can't believe he's still viable and that he is going to be out there in the primaries and he's going to have to debate DeSantis. And I don't know that DeSantis can beat him in a debate. I think he might win.” View on YouTube

Microsoft will release a search engine product integrating OpenAI technology (e.g., ChatGPT‑like capabilities) that will materially erode or threaten Google’s core search business within the subsequent few years after December 2022.

“Microsoft, I think, is going to release a and this is a prediction as well, a search engine with OpenAI that has a significant impact on Google's franchise.” View on YouTube

The speaker expects Disney’s stock to appreciate enough in the future to justify increasing their position by buying more Disney shares during 2023.

“I own the stock... Yes, I'm buying more Disney stock this year.” View on YouTube

After the FTX/FTT case, the SEC under Gary Gensler will initiate additional enforcement actions and prosecutions against other crypto tokens and projects it deems to be fraudulent or unregistered securities over the next few years.

“I think there will be a subsequent domino to fall, which is now that Gary Gee, head of the SEC, has FTX and the FTT tokens as the grift. He's going to go down the list of other tokens, and he is going to start doing more prosecutions of grifts in crypto.” View on YouTube

Within 6 to 18 weeks after late December 2022 (i.e., by roughly March–May 2023), Twitter will ship enough new product features that public discussion will focus primarily on these new features rather than on transitional/operational problems from Elon Musk’s takeover.

“We are going to see a parade of features I predict in another 6 to 18 weeks we will see people talking about all the great features in Twitter, not any of the transitional issues and people will be shocked.” View on YouTube

Jason predicts that Sam Bankman-Fried’s prison sentence will be approximately 35 years (he is using 35 years as the over-under line for sentencing length).

“I'll set it at 35 years.” View on YouTube

Jason predicts that Sam Bankman-Fried will receive a life sentence or a sentence functionally equivalent to life in prison.

“I agree... And he'll be gone for life. Yeah, I think it's going to be life.” View on YouTube

Trump Media & Technology Group's social app (Truth Social) will never successfully launch a real product; if a product is launched, it will only reach on the order of 5–10 million users in its first year.

“I think the whole thing is just a super grift. I don't think they'll ever get a product out the door. And if they do, I think they get to maybe five, 10 million [users].” View on YouTube

The All-In podcast hosts will announce details of an All-In Summit event in Miami after this October 2021 episode, with location news released in the near future.

“For those of you asking about the All In Summit, we are looking at locations in Miami and we will have news shortly.” View on YouTube

The planned All-In Summit in Miami is targeted to take place in a two-day window during March, April, or May 2022.

“Uh, we're gonna look at March, April, May.” View on YouTube

At some point in the future after this episode (Nov 23, 2024), David Sacks will become involved in Dogecoin (DOGE) in a notable way, such as a partnership, advisory role, investment announcement, or other publicly visible collaboration between Sacks and a Dogecoin-related project.

“and maybe he's going to be involved in Doge. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a sacks Doge, uh, hook up in the future. I don't know, I'm taking a guess here.” View on YouTube

The recall petition against California Governor Gavin Newsom will successfully qualify (reach enough verified signatures) and trigger a recall election in 2021.

“So the recall is well on its way. They need to get 1.5 million signatures. We're at 1.1 or 1.2, but we actually really need two because there's some verification process that goes on. So in all likelihood we will see, Gavin Newsom recalled. We agree on that.” View on YouTube

A likely outcome of the real-estate commission lawsuits and ensuing settlements (in the next few years after 2023) is that U.S. home-seller listing agreements will be restructured so that sellers explicitly choose the commission percentages for their own agent and any buyer’s agent (rather than a fixed, customary 6%), potentially with regulatory or industry-imposed caps on those percentages.

“The settlement is likely to be that when you hire a broker, they will give you a form and you'll pick what percentage you want to pay. I'll pay you 2% and I'll pay the the buyer's agent 1.5 I'll pay you 1.5. I'll pay the buyer's agent two or they should be caps on it.” View on YouTube

Elon Musk will attend and speak at the upcoming All-In Summit event referenced in this episode (the 2022 All-In Summit).

“Oh, is that what it says on the website? Yeah, he's on the website now.” View on YouTube

When the Epstein files and related evidence are fully revealed and investigated, it will show that at least one major intelligence agency (CIA, Israel’s intelligence services, or Russian intelligence) was materially involved with Jeffrey Epstein (e.g., using him as an asset or otherwise connected), and that this involvement is a key reason information has been withheld or covered up.

“I think we're going to get to the end of the day. We're going to find out that some intelligence agency was somehow involved in this, and that's why it's being covered up.” View on YouTube

Over the next few years (through at least 2027), Google’s core search advertising business will continue to grow overall, supported by increased search volume and improved AI-driven ad targeting, and Google will not lose its dominant search position to ChatGPT/OpenAI. Over the same time frame, OpenAI’s relative share and leadership in the general-purpose AI assistant/model market will decline as Google (Gemini), xAI (Grok), and Anthropic gain share and surpass OpenAI on key benchmarks and usage.

“I'm going to take the other side of it. I think what's going to happen is the AI gains in advertising targeting and the number of searches is going to go up. So while the revenue per search might go down, the number of searches goes up and then the targeting goes up. So I'm going to take the other side of it. I think the search franchise is going to grow and that Google is not going to lose to ChatGPT. And I think the big loser in all of this is going to be OpenAI, because they started with 100% of the market, and they're only going down and they're facing a Google firing on all cylinders, anthropic and grok, beating them in the leaderboards pretty consistently.” View on YouTube

Between 2026 and 2027, Huawei’s domestically fabricated chips will begin to have a noticeable competitive impact on the high-performance AI chip market, particularly by offering lower-cost alternatives for certain workloads, thereby posing a meaningful new competitive risk to Nvidia.

“Give a timeline for that two years, three years out. When we start to see that have an impact on...” View on YouTube

In the future, the All-In podcast YouTube channel will publish exclusive poker content featuring the hosts playing with professional players including Jason Koon, Alan Keating, and likely Phil Hellmuth.

“And we're going to have some exclusive content on our YouTube channel of the besties playing poker with incredible professional poker players like Jason Koon, Alan Keating. And then I think Phil Hellmuth.” View on YouTube

As a result of his firing from Apple over the controversy about his book, Antonio García Martínez will receive a settlement from Apple of roughly $10 million.

“this led to, uh, a petition at Apple which then led to him being fired, uh, which now is going to lead to him probably getting a $10 million settlement.” View on YouTube

Jason Calacanis estimates that Antonio García Martínez’s eventual settlement with Apple over his termination will be approximately $10 million.

“I put it at ten.” View on YouTube

The All-In podcast hosts will hold an in-person event with fans sometime in September 2021.

“we love the stands and we're going to do something in person in September.” View on YouTube

The Chinese government will successfully suppress or effectively stop legal/above-ground use of Bitcoin within China, while Bitcoin usage in Western countries will not be stopped by their governments.

“They're not going to stop bitcoin in the West, but they will stop it in China. They 100% full stop.” View on YouTube

Within 2–3 years of May 2021 (by May 2023–May 2024), the United States government will launch a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and will impose an additional tax of roughly 10% on transactions using non-CBDC cryptocurrencies to favor usage of the U.S. CBDC.

“the CBDC that the United States will launch in the next 2 or 3 years. They're going to say, if you want to use any of these other currencies, there's a 10% tax on them. We want you using ours, the legitimate one.” View on YouTube

Google's $32B acquisition of Wiz will act as a 'starter's pistol' for the venture and tech industry, triggering a noticeable pickup in large liquidity events (major acquisitions and/or IPOs) in the near term following this deal.

“Hey listen, there is great news I think for the venture industry this Google acquiring Wiz. I think this is this could be the starter's pistol.” View on YouTube

Wiz will reach approximately $1 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in calendar year 2025.

“However, they're supposed to hit a billion in AR this year, which would put it at 30 times forward looking or 32 times” View on YouTube

The Federal Reserve will implement two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts over the remainder of 2025, bringing the federal funds rate down to roughly 4% by year-end 2025.

“They lowered expectations on rate cuts. They expect two quarter point cuts for the rest of 2025. This would take us down to about 4%.” View on YouTube

Over the next several years (on the order of five years), Microsoft will achieve very strong revenue growth while keeping its total employee headcount roughly flat around ~250,000 (±10%), leading to significantly higher revenue per employee.

“I'm predicting incredible growth and the same number of employees.” View on YouTube

The referenced crypto-related bill that has passed the Senate will also pass the U.S. House of Representatives in the near term ("very quickly") following this episode's recording in June 2025.

“So hopefully this can pass the House very quickly.” View on YouTube

Later segments of this same All-In Podcast episode (beyond this transcript chunk) will include about 90 minutes of discussion on the Israeli conflict with Iran and Ukraine, featuring guests John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs in the second, third, and fourth hours of the show.

“We got two hours of classic all in. Uh, in part two of the show, we're going to do an hour and a half on the Israeli conflict with Iran. We've got 90 minutes. Ukraine. And we've got Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine. Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs joining us in the second and the third and fourth hour of the All In podcast.” View on YouTube

The hosts (including speaker A and F) will meet in person on the upcoming Saturday night after this recording, in connection with the planned tequila launch event.

“Yes. We'll see you Saturday night. Absolutely.” View on YouTube

Growing retail interest and participation in DAOs and similar crypto capital‑formation vehicles will eventually force changes to U.S. investor accreditation laws (loosening who can qualify as an accredited or eligible private‑market investor).

“they're going to continue to have a taste of it. And I think it's going to be it's going to force the accreditation laws to change.” View on YouTube

The scale of DAO capital formation will grow roughly 10x and then 10x again: within about 2 years of late 2021, a DAO of roughly $40M size will be matched by a DAO of around $400M, and within about 10 years of late 2021 there will be at least one DAO of roughly $4B in capital.

“What I always look at when I see new technologies doing something is I just imagine if it ten-x and what that would look like and if it worked, and then I just ten-x it one more time. So what we're going to see, I predict, is this $40 million Dow will turn into a 400 million won in the next two years, and then a 4 billion won in the next ten.” View on YouTube

Over the course of calendar year 2021, the syndicate.com will complete roughly 60 investment deals (about five per month) and deploy a total of about $50 million in capital.

“We're on track this year to do five deals a month, 60 deals, and we'll put 50 million to work this year at the syndicate.com.” View on YouTube

As of June 20, 2020, Jason predicts Joe Biden will win the November 2020 U.S. presidential election and that Donald Trump has effectively lost his ability to win due to his mishandling of COVID‑19 masks/leadership and the response to social unrest.

“I believe Biden wins. I believe Trump is absolutely lost his ability to win this because he made two critical errors” View on YouTube

In the United States, life and economic activity will be broadly 'back to normal' by April 2021 as people resume normal behavior once they see others doing so.

“People will jump back in. I think it's April. David, to your point of when this goes back to normal.” View on YouTube

Alphabet/Google will cut roughly 5–10% of its workforce, on the order of about 10,000 employees, in layoffs announced after this November 2022 episode.

“5%, 10%, 10,000 employees. That seems like the number that people are going with. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's see. That'd be my guess.” View on YouTube

The use of emergency powers and bank-account freezes by Justin Trudeau against the Canadian trucker protest will politically backfire on him in the near term (e.g., significantly damage his popularity and/or lead to major political losses within the next 1–2 years).

“I think it's going to have the opposite effect. I think it's going to blow up in Trudeau's face.” View on YouTube

The Canadian government’s freezing of protest-related funds in early 2022 will drive a noticeable increase over the following few years in people holding part of their net worth in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (especially privacy-oriented coins) explicitly to keep assets outside of direct government control, and this effect will be greater for Bitcoin adoption than a major merchant like McDonald’s accepting Bitcoin would be.

“this will do more than McDonald's accepting bitcoin because this is the first time like a Western Democratic state is seizing people's funds like in an incredibly unfair, unnecessary way, which is just going to have more people say, you know what, maybe I should keep some of my net worth out of the government's purview if they're going to seize it anyway. And then now people are going to start looking into the coins that allow people to.” View on YouTube

Justin Trudeau will ultimately lose politically over this episode (e.g., lose his position as Prime Minister or lose his next general election) as a consequence of his handling of the 2022 trucker protests and Emergencies Act invocation.

“Such an unforced error. Like so dumb. He's gonna lose, right? Trudeau's gonna lose.” View on YouTube

San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin will be recalled in the June 7, 2022 election, and the "yes" vote to recall him will be extremely high, on the order of about 95% of votes cast.

“So he's got to I mean, if these people got out by 75% on average, he's going to be out by 95%.” View on YouTube

Over time following the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, the dominant view among the American public will be relief that the war is over, and the graphic images of people clinging to planes during the withdrawal will largely fade from public salience, provided there is no new large-scale terrorist attack on the United States comparable to 9/11.

“I think that's I think that'll ultimately I think people are going to forget those images of people on planes and just think, thank God that's over. I think now that there hasn't been Ben 20, you know, and hopefully there's not another nine over 11.” View on YouTube

New York City’s Manhattan congestion pricing charge for entering below 60th Street by car during standard daytime hours will be raised to $12 per entry in 2028 and further to $15 per entry in 2031, following the schedule currently announced by authorities.

“It's going to increase to $12 in 2028 and $15 in 2031.” View on YouTube

On the weekend immediately following this episode’s release (around Jan 18–20, 2025), the All-In hosts will attend inauguration-related events and will broadcast at least one live episode of the All-In Podcast on Sunday or Monday via YouTube and X.

“we're all going to be at the inauguration various parties this weekend. And we will be doing some live episodes of the All In podcast, probably on Sunday Monday time frame, and we will see you on the live stream.” View on YouTube

The proposed Adobe–Figma acquisition deal announced in 2022 will successfully close (i.e., will not be blocked or abandoned).

“I think it closes.” View on YouTube

Regulatory actions such as CFTC fines, New York and Canada bans, and a reported DOJ wire fraud investigation mark the beginning of the end for Tether as a viable, dominant stablecoin; its position and/or operation will significantly deteriorate going forward from 2021.

“And there's apparently a DOJ wire fraud. So I think this is the beginning of the end, not the end of the beginning.” View on YouTube

The Walt Disney Company will launch its own commercial generative image product, similar to DALL·E or Stable Diffusion, that allows users to generate customized images using Disney-owned IP (e.g., Star Wars characters) such as "put yourself as a Star Wars character."

“Disney is going to launch their own dolly type stable diffusion product where you can do this. Put yourself on a star, make a Star Wars character.” View on YouTube

Rural customers whose government-subsidized Starlink service was canceled will, within a reasonable period after cancellation (e.g., 1–2 years), independently subscribe to Starlink using their own money at standard retail prices, leading to continued or growing Starlink adoption in those areas despite loss of subsidies.

“The the fact is, all of those people who just had their Starlink canceled through the government, I guarantee you they will buy Starlink because it's the best product.” View on YouTube

If Jason Calacanis ever runs for U.S. president, his stated housing policy platform will include a concrete proposal to build five new American cities, each containing approximately 3 million homes, where purchase eligibility is restricted to buyers under an income cap, and these will be marketed as normal, high-quality homes rather than traditional ‘projects’ or visibly subsidized housing.

“When I if I run for president, you know what my position is going to be. Schultz. What's that? I'm going to build five cities with 3 million homes in each. And you can only buy them if you make under X amount per year. It's not going to be like the projects or like, you know, subsidized housing in New York talking about it's not going to be Stuyvesant Town, okay. It's going to be like, nice house.” View on YouTube

Andrew Schulz, who at the time of this recording has one child, will go on to have at least two more children (a second and a third child) in the future.

“listen, good luck. You're gonna have a second and third. Schultz, I know you got some eggs.” View on YouTube

Within the next 10 years, the U.S. will lose millions of driving-related jobs due to technologies such as AI and self‑driving vehicles, comparable in scale to the prior loss of millions of cashier jobs, and this will lead to more restrictive U.S. immigration policy (fewer people allowed to immigrate).

“If we lose millions of driver jobs, which we will in the next ten years, just like we lost millions of cashier jobs, well, that's going to impact how our nation and many of the voters look at the border and immigration, we might not be able to let as many people immigrate here.” View on YouTube

Jason predicts that: (1) There is roughly a 5–10% probability that The New York Times will win its copyright lawsuit against OpenAI in a decisive way that results in injunctions against OpenAI's current practices; and (2) the broader legal and business resolution of these copyright cases will resemble the Napster-to-Spotify transition, where major AI language model providers—especially closed-source ones—end up paying a substantial revenue share (on the order of 50–66%) to large content-rightsholders as part of negotiated licensing settlements.

“I have a prediction here. I think this is all going to wind up wind up like the Napster Spotify case... I think that there is a non-zero chance, like it might be 5 or 10%, that OpenAI is going to lose the New York Times lawsuit, and they're going to lose it hard, and they're going to be injunctions. And I think it's the settlement might be that these language models, especially the closed ones, are going to have to pay some percentage in a negotiated settlement of their revenue, half to two thirds to the content holders.” View on YouTube

Kyrie Irving will resume playing NBA basketball in the near future once New York City lifts its COVID-19 vaccine-related restrictions that are currently preventing him from playing home games.

“The rumor is that Kyrie is going to be playing basketball soon because.” View on YouTube

The Golden State Warriors will win the NBA championship in the 2021–2022 season.

“the Warriors are going to win this year I don't know.” View on YouTube

Freeberg's company will start building its own proprietary AI model by combining an existing core model with its own proprietary genomic data, rather than relying solely on third-party frontier models.

“Also, I predict your next card you'll turn over is you'll start making your own models, Freeberg. You'll take all this data you have.” View on YouTube

Harvard University is likely to face legal or public challenges scrutinizing its presidential selection process, with specific focus on whether diversity or identity considerations improperly influenced the choice, analogous to potential DEI-related lawsuits in other domains.

“We might even see that with Harvard and their selection of their president. Like, why was this person selected as president? Right.” View on YouTube

Soon after December 2025, the Trump administration (via David Sacks) will issue a national AI policy edict or executive order.

“In China, they're proposing and Sax and President Trump, the amazing President Trump, will be doing an AI national edict soon, I believe, or an executive order.” View on YouTube

Within 2-5 years from December 2025, millions of entry-level jobs will be eliminated due to AI, with taxi drivers being the first occupational group significantly displaced, triggering public protests over job losses.

“Entrylevel jobs. Those are going away. And they're going to go away in the millions in the short to midterm. 2, three, four, five years... you'll see taxi drivers are going to be the first group to do it.” View on YouTube

The U.S. unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds, which rose from about 9% in January 2025 to roughly 10.5% by December 2025, will continue climbing to approximately 14%, driven in part by AI-related job displacement.

“Unemployment rate 16 to 24 year olds... 9% in January, now 10 a.5%. I think this chart's going right up to 14%. Just my prediction and I think it's because of AI.” View on YouTube

The FTX/FTT collapse in late 2022 will mark a structural turning point that leads to a major reduction in speculative venture-backed token issuance going forward.

“I have a feeling that this is going to be the turning point in all of that token.” View on YouTube

Over the next few years, venture capital will largely stop investing directly in tradable tokens and will instead focus on equity in companies, while existing and new tokens will become subject to much heavier regulation.

“I think venture investing in the tokens is going to end. Investing in the corporation is going to begin. And any of the tokens are going to be super regulated.” View on YouTube

From late 2022, macro and market conditions will remain choppy for roughly 2–4 more quarters (through about late 2023) before clear improvement.

“I think consensus we have here is, is that we're in the end game now, maybe, what, two quarters, three quarters, four quarters of choppiness?” View on YouTube

President Biden will respond to the then‑upcoming US trucker convoy by embracing the truckers’ core demands and positioning himself as on their side—specifically by publicly supporting or announcing a significant rollback of Covid mandates in response to their protest during 2022.

“I'm betting he's going to I mean, he's he's always represented the working men and women of this country. That's been his thing from the beginning. I bet you he does embrace them.” View on YouTube

Within the next hardware generation or so (on the order of a few years from 2023), training new foundation or near‑foundation AI models will commonly take on the order of weeks rather than many months.

“So to your point, this thing is going to be like people will be training models in weeks.”

A government backstop to resolve the SVB crisis would likely require roughly $25–50 billion (around 5–10% of the original TARP size), and if structured with seniority and warrants in SVB and/or affected companies, could plausibly return at least 50% and potentially up to 100%+ profit on that capital to US taxpayers over time.

“This would require maybe 25 or $50 billion, 10%, maybe five, 10% of the totality of Tarp would be enough to cover what's happening here with Silicon Valley Bank and work this out... the American people could get some warrants on those companies or warrants and ownership in Silicon Valley Bank and make at least $0.50 on the dollar, maybe even double.” View on YouTube

If Silicon Valley Bank depositors’ funds are not made available (i.e., are effectively lost), then many of the affected startups will run out of money and shut down within approximately one month of the SVB failure in March 2023.

“If allowed to deploy that, it's going to return a multiple and a venture multiple 2345X. But if we destroy that money, these companies are going out of business next month.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election and be inaugurated in January 2025, and the speaker (Jason) will attend that inauguration.

“and then I'll be going to the inauguration to see all my friends and celebrate the big Trump victory” View on YouTube

A substantial share of homeowners whose oceanfront houses on Pacific Coast Highway in Malibu were destroyed in this wildfire will not be able to fully rebuild those homes during their lifetimes, because the California Coastal Commission will block or severely delay rebuilding approvals, effectively leaving many lots undeveloped or in a more natural state.

“What are the chances that the California Coastal Commission even allows these people to build those homes in those locations on PCH?... Do you think they slow roll it? And those people are all 50, 60, 70 years old. They'll never be able to rebuild their homes. California's just slow roll this and say, you know what? Nature returned it to its natural state.” View on YouTube

If California voters start recall campaigns against Governor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass in the near term, those recall efforts will succeed in removing them from office.

“Start a page, recall Newsom, recall bass, and you have the power to do it and you will succeed, I guarantee it. Now is the moment to strike.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2025, the combined weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks in the S&P 500 index will fall below 30%.

“We created a market here. The Magnificent Seven shrinks below 30% of S&P 520, 25, 44%, 44% chance is what people in the real world are putting volume on that.” View on YouTube

At some point in calendar year 2025, total U.S. national debt will exceed $38 trillion.

“Will US national debt surpass 38,000,000,000,000 in 2025?” View on YouTube

During calendar year 2025, Donald Trump (if in office and implementing his policies) will deport at least 750,000 people from the United States.

“Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? 38% chance?” View on YouTube

Generative AI products that use third‑party content without clear licensing (e.g., ChatGPT/Bing-style systems) will face piracy/IP litigation that halts or severely constrains their operation in a way comparable to YouTube’s early near‑shutdown period due to copyright suits.

“YouTube got stopped dead in their tracks, and the only way YouTube and Napster got stopped in the tracks. I predict this is going to get stopped dead in its tracks with YouTube level near death experience piracy.” View on YouTube

Major copyright lawsuits against generative AI systems (e.g., over training on code, images, or text) will result in settlements that create a mechanism for rightsholders to identify when their content was used and to claim ongoing monetary compensation, similar to YouTube’s Content ID system.

“That's what's going to happen here. There'll be a settlement where they are going to be able to claim their content.” View on YouTube

In hindsight, society will view the current overprescription of behavioral and attention-related drugs to children (e.g., ADHD medications and antidepressants) as a major public health disaster on the scale of the opioid crisis.

“And I think these things are to say they're overprescribed is going to be a huge understatement. We're going to look at this like the opioid crisis, I guarantee it.” View on YouTube

The bill that passed the U.S. House in early June 2023 allowing any American to take a test to qualify as an accredited investor will pass the Senate and be signed into law in the near term (within roughly the next legislative session).

“And the easiest solution for this just passed in Congress this week and will go to the Senate and be a law soon. I think allowing every American, the other 94% to take a test and become accredited.” View on YouTube

Due to U.S. regulatory pressure, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong will relocate Coinbase’s corporate base of operations outside the United States, likely to a jurisdiction in the Middle East or a Caribbean island, in order to preserve enterprise value.

“And that's really the easiest path to resolution here. So we don't have Brian Armstrong move his company to the Middle East or, you know, an island in the Caribbean, which is what he's going to do, I predict.” View on YouTube

Within the months following June 2023, the U.S. government will implement restrictions that effectively stop U.S. venture capital firms from making new investments in Chinese companies, especially in sensitive sectors like chips and AI.

“So what really is happening is the government is going to stop all US venture investing in China. That's what's going to happen in the coming months.” View on YouTube

Over time, NBA fandom will shift such that younger generations predominantly follow individual star players rather than teams; in the future, viewership and subscription demand will be driven more by specific players than by franchises.

“It's probably a jump ball right now, but it will eventually be. They'll follow the players because this new generation follows players like our kids, like I follow LeBron from team to team.” View on YouTube

In the future, the NBA will move toward an ad-based, direct-to-consumer subscription model in which fans can subscribe directly to the league (e.g., roughly $200/year for access to all games without ads), bypassing the traditional cable bundle.

“What's going to happen now is I think they're going to they just want this to be ad based and to directly subscribe. So I directly subscribe to the NBA. I get every game for $200 a year with no ads.” View on YouTube

Tucker Carlson’s new Twitter-based show will reach an audience on the order of 25 million people (per episode or per major release).

“Super distribution is the way to go. He's going to get 25 million people.” View on YouTube

Corporate hiring freezes underway in many companies in 2023 will effectively continue indefinitely, because for many white-collar roles it will be easier and cheaper to automate the job function with AI than to create and fill new job requisitions.

“My base Bass thesis right now is that the job freezes, the hiring freezes, that all these companies is indefinite. I'm assuming it's indefinite, because the amount of work it takes to write a job requisition is more work in some cases than actually automating with AI already the job function.” View on YouTube

Over the subsequent 2–3 years (from mid-2023), many 20-person tech companies will be able to roughly double their business output or revenue while maintaining the same headcount of about 20 employees, due to productivity gains from AI.

“I think 20 person companies might, you know, double in size in the next 2 or 3 years, but still have 20 people.” View on YouTube

As AI adoption accelerates over the coming years, a large segment of workers will be unable to obtain interviews for knowledge-worker or white-collar roles and will instead only find opportunities in in-person service jobs (e.g., plumbers, electricians, waiters).

“there's just going to be large swaths of people who are not going to be able to get job interviews for anything other than service jobs.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump will win the next Republican presidential primary (i.e., become the GOP nominee in the 2024 U.S. presidential election).

“you know, Trump's going to win the primary.” View on YouTube

Due to its aging and shrinking population, Japan will experience a contracting, constricting economy in the future, and Japan’s role and standing in the world will become significantly different from its historical position.

“And so these demographics can't be fought. You're going to have a contraction constricting economy in Japan, and their place in the world is going to be very, very different.” View on YouTube

Following the October 2021 release of Dave Chappelle's Netflix special "The Closer," there is a 50% probability that Netflix will remove (take down) that special from its service at some point in the future.

“I give it a 50% chance that Netflix takes it down.” View on YouTube

If Dave Chappelle were to launch his own subscription streaming service for comedy, that service would attract roughly 10 million paying subscribers within its first two years of operation.

“If Dave Chappelle were to create his own Netflix, I think it gets 10 million paid subscribers over the first two years overnight.” View on YouTube

Between approximately 2025 and 2030, global investment in AI-related data centers will cumulatively total around $1–2 trillion.

“And we're now seeing hundreds of billions low, hundreds of billions per year being deployed, and we'll see 1 trillion or 2 deployed, I think, in the next five years on data centers in this.” View on YouTube

If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by roughly 50 basis points sometime in September–November 2025, U.S. CPI inflation will subsequently rise back to a level with a "3-handle" (between 3.0% and 3.9% year-over-year) within the following months.

“if we cut rates in September, October, November time period and maybe 50 bips comes off, this inflation is definitely going to go up. People have more money, more investment goes around. We'll probably see a three handle again.” View on YouTube

Applicants to the All-In Summit scholarship program will typically receive a decision/response within approximately one week of applying, despite the high volume of scholarship requests.

“those scholarships are there, you'll hear in a week, typically because we have so many scholarship requests, it takes a little while to get through them.” View on YouTube

Later in this same podcast episode, during the second half, David Sacks will appear and comment extensively on the topics being discussed (including the crypto reserve announcement).

“And I'm sure our friend David Sachs will have much to say in the second half of the program.” View on YouTube

High-throughput blood diagnostics from a single finger-prick (producing hundreds of different assay results from one small blood sample) will not be technologically feasible for many decades and likely not within the current generation's lifetime without some significant unforeseen breakthrough.

“we're talking about 19 years ago, and we're saying here it's not going to be possible to do hundreds of these things maybe in our lifetime. We're talking about decades from there needs to be some significant breakthrough.” View on YouTube

Among roughly 900 unicorn startups existing as of early 2022, many exits over the following years will be "pushes" in which companies sell for around or below their last private valuation, returning capital to preferred investors but delivering little or no return on those late-stage rounds.

“I think you're going to see a lot of pushes. No, I'm agreeing with you. Yes. I'm going to give you the examples. Then there's also.” View on YouTube

A significant share of late-stage venture-backed companies valued at $1B+ as of early 2022 will exit at prices that merely return invested capital to their most recent investors, rather than generating the 3–4x returns those investors typically target.

“I think it's going to be a lot of these pushes where I don't know what is it in blackjack, David, when you're playing those three hands and you get a push like and it's like, okay, I'm going to live to fight another hand” View on YouTube

Joe Biden’s handling of the border wall issue (including auctioning off unused wall components and then reversing course to build new barriers) is likely to be a significant enough political liability that it could cause him to lose the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“I think this could cost him the election.” View on YouTube

Waymo will launch its commercial robotaxi service in Los Angeles in the near term following its 24/7 operations in San Francisco and Phoenix (implied within the next few years after 2023).

“Waymo. Very expensive cars, by the way. They're currently in San Francisco and Phoenix 24 over seven. They're going to launch in LA soon.” View on YouTube

Widespread, fully deployed autonomous robotaxi/self‑driving services (at scale, not just limited pilots) are likely about 10 years away from 2023 (i.e., around 2033) before they are fully rolled out.

“It's obvious that these are getting there. The question is, is I think it's more like ten years before this is fully deployed.” View on YouTube

High-reliability robotaxi / autonomous driving deployments in non‑grid, bad‑weather regions like the U.S. Northeast (e.g., Boston) are more than 10 years away from 2023 (so not before ~2033), while in dry, flat, grid-based, good‑weather cities like Phoenix and parts of California and Austin, such deployments are viable now (early 2020s).

“the northeast will be the last place when you go to Boston or you know, you're in other places that don't have a grid based system and you have ice and snow. This stuff is ten plus years out, but in a dry place with consistent weather like California, Phoenix, etc. it's it's now right?” View on YouTube

After Roe is overturned, U.S. states will independently construct varied abortion-law frameworks (differing on issues like rape and incest exceptions, on‑demand access, and gestational‑week limits), resulting in significant legal and practical chaos around abortion access for several years.

“So a possible outcome is states starting to build their own framework in terms of rape, incest, on demand, on request versus a certain number of weeks. Uh, and that is just going to be an absolute amount of chaos for some number of years.” View on YouTube

Overturning Roe v. Wade will cause the Republican Party to incur a broad and substantial long‑term political cost (e.g., in elections and public support) across the country.

“I think that's the Republican Party is going to just pay such a massive price for this. Um, broadly, I mean, is this a case where, like, the dog catches the car, bites the fender, and is now like, oh my God.” View on YouTube

To remain electorally viable in coming election cycles, Republican politicians will be compelled to support abortion being legal under some circumstances and to reject a position of illegality in all circumstances; those who insist on total illegality will generally fail to win office.

“Translated, Republicans are going to have to fall into this bucket of legal under certain and they're going to gonna not listen to illegal at all, because that that means they'll just be so disconnected from the reality of American life in 2022. They will not get office.” View on YouTube

Enterprise SaaS spending per employee will fall from roughly 10% of an employee's salary toward 5% and eventually toward 1%, forcing SaaS companies to significantly downsize their expense base.

“So your SAS spend might go from 10% of an employee's salary down to 5% down to 1%. That's what I think the trend will be which means these companies are going to need to really downsize their expense base.” View on YouTube

Within a few months of this November 2021 recording, Zillow will execute layoffs amounting to approximately 25% of its total workforce, primarily in roles related to its iBuyer/home-flipping operations.

“Zillow is going to reduce its workforce by 25% over the next few months. I'm assuming that's all those ibuyers.” View on YouTube

In the 2024 US presidential election, a 'dark horse' candidate (neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump) will win the presidency, defeating both major-party nominees if they are the candidates.

“I also picked the dark horse presidential candidate who will beat treasonous and corrupt, aka Trump and Biden. I think we're going to actually see some dark horse candidate maybe beat these two in the rematch that nobody wanted.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2024, Benjamin Netanyahu will lose power as Israel’s prime minister (e.g., via resignation, electoral defeat, or being forced from office) and be regarded as one of the year’s biggest political losers.

“I went with Netanyahu here... every major Israeli poll is just suggesting that they want him out and they put the odds. Vox puts the odds of his ouster at 75%... I think Netanyahu is going to be the biggest loser in 2024.” View on YouTube

In 2024, rights‑holders that own large, high‑quality datasets (e.g., New York Times, Reddit, X/Twitter, YouTube and similar) will emerge as major business winners by securing meaningful recurring licensing income from AI companies for use of their data in model training and products.

“I'm going to go with for my biggest winner in 2020 for training data owners like the New York Times, Reddit X, Twitter, YouTube, etc... I think this is going to be an amazing turnaround for the entire content industry... where every year copyright holders can get some money in exchange for using their training data.” View on YouTube

In 2024, the New York Times and OpenAI will resolve their lawsuit via a settlement of at least nine figures (≥$100M) for past use plus an ongoing annual licensing agreement allowing OpenAI to continue training on and serving NYT content.

“I think it's going to be a nine figure settlement for previous stuff, and then an ongoing licensing fee in order to have the New York Times and their training data... I think The New York Times will come up with a license that everybody can use their data if they pay this yearly fee.” View on YouTube

Within roughly the 2024 timeframe, the New York Times will either launch its own AI model or integrate with a major LLM such that only authenticated NYT subscribers can access NYT‑powered answers (e.g., for recommendations or news queries) through that AI interface.

“Well, I think you could do two different things. One, you could do New York Times could make their own model. Right. But they could fork their model or just do the user interface, say if you want to query New York Times information and have that as part of your results. You have to have a New York Times account.” View on YouTube

Apple will launch an AI product (likely a language‑model‑based service) that explicitly shares a substantial portion—on the order of about half—of its AI query or subscription revenue with content rightsholders whose data is licensed for training.

“I predict Apple will do this, right. They'll do a language model where they say 50% of the revenue that we generate from queries or subscriptions to this goes to the people we built it off of, or the licensees.” View on YouTube

In 2024, global smartphone manufacturers—especially at the high end like Apple—will continue to face sluggish unit sales and upgrade cycles, with many consumers skipping multiple generations and causing revenue growth in premium smartphones to flatten or weaken.

“I went with smartphones. Smartphone manufacturers are facing a major slowdown... I think this is going to slow down. And people will during austerity, they're going to skip 2 or 3 versions of it.” View on YouTube

In 2024, TikTok (or its parent ByteDance via a TikTok‑specific entity) will complete an IPO or public spin‑out, with significant political pressure to reduce or remove direct CCP control or board influence as part of the deal structure.

“I'm going to say this year that I think TikTok goes public, and they'll be under pressure from different political factions to get the CCP off the board. So I'm going to go with ByteDance taking going public or TikTok spinning out and going public. Some some version of that.” View on YouTube

Investors who bought OpenAI secondary shares at a ~$90B valuation in 2023 will be 'underwater' by the end of 2024 (i.e., OpenAI’s market value or implied valuation will be below that level).

“People buying secondary at 90 billion right now will be underwater next year.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2024, Apple will have launched major new AI capabilities—potentially including a significantly upgraded or 'rebooted' Siri—such that Apple is widely viewed as an active, credible player in generative or advanced AI rather than remaining on the sidelines.

“I think I'm going to go with Apple as my contrarian belief. I think Apple is going to become a player in AI the end of the year. Maybe they reboot Siri, but they're going to figure something out, and I think they're not going to remain on the sidelines when it comes to AI.” View on YouTube

In 2024, a basket of "consumer comfort services" companies (exemplified by DoorDash, Airbnb, and Uber) will be one of the best‑performing asset categories in the market.

“Consumer Comfort Services is my pick for the best performing asset of 2024.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2024, private‑market valuations for LLM‑focused startups will have fallen roughly 50–80% from their 2023 peak implied valuations, making them one of the worst‑performing asset categories, even if these markdowns are not fully reflected on company cap tables.

“My worst performing asset in 2024 is LLM startups... I think they're all going to come down by, you know, 50, 60, 70, 80% in terms of their valuations that won't get marked in their books, but that will be the reality of where their stocks will trade on the private markets.” View on YouTube

In 2024, a major trend among startups and companies will be increased efficiency driven by AI tools and by extensive outsourcing of remote work to lower‑cost geographies worldwide, often at roughly one‑third the cost of equivalent U.S. hires.

“I picked my most anticipated trend of 2024 as efficiency in the form of AI advances and outsourcing... I think the number one trend I'm seeing from startups... is outsourcing to all other geographies around the world for work... at a third of the price.” View on YouTube

If the All-In hosts create an 'All-In Network' of roughly five subject-focused podcasts (e.g., Friedberg on science, Chamath on public markets, Sacks on SaaS or similar, plus All-In and This Week in Startups), then within five years of this statement (by early February 2026) that network will be competitively 'right up there' with CNN and MSNBC in terms of media prominence/audience size.

“Here's the prediction. And I'm going to make a bold prediction here. The media companies are gonna you know, they're obviously picking a side. They obviously want subscription. Now they're dealing with Substack clubhouse podcasts all chipping away. I think what's going to happen is you're going to see media brands built around certain podcasts, and they're going to work subject first. In other words, the subject of the story are going to create media properties. So if you look at what we've done with All in, and obviously I have this week in startups, if we did the Friedberg on Science podcast and it was just Friedberg explaining a science topic, and then then we did Chamath on public markets. And then we did sacks on, you know, alt right conspiracy theories. And we just had five pods now. Or it could be something else, I don't know guns, you know. Whatever I don't know pro-life I don't know what taxes into. But you know, no sacks could do something on SaaS. So sacks on SaaS, Freeburg on science, Chamath on thirst traps this week in startups, then we have all in. That's five, five full pods of an hour and a half each. If each of you did your own pod and I have my pod and we made the All in network, the All in News network, I guarantee you we would be within five years, you know, right up there with CNN and MSNBC.” View on YouTube

Over the next four years, OpenAI's share of the AI chatbot market will decline to about one-third, with competitors collectively capturing the other two-thirds.

“I just tracked this out and this is what I think is going to happen over the next four years. I think we're going to see Open AI go down to about a third of the market and I think the other players are going to take two-thirds.” View on YouTube

Within the next 12 to 24 months, OpenAI's market share of the AI chatbot space will fall below 50%.

“I think what we're going to see here if we're sitting here I don't know next year they're going to be in the next 12 to 24 months under 50%.” View on YouTube

Google will make its best Gemini models free for life to undercut OpenAI's subscription revenue, and Meta will follow suit shortly after with its own free AI offering.

“They're going to make Gemini free for life for the best models. That's my prediction for Google and I think Meta will be right behind them.” View on YouTube

OpenAI's consumer subscription revenue (currently about 80% of its revenue via $20/month plans) will be driven down to essentially zero as Google and Meta offer competing AI products for free.

“Right now 80% of the revenue comes from $20 subscriptions. That's going to get decimated to zero. I don't think consumers are going to pay for this product just like they won't pay for search and they won't pay for a browser because Google and Meta will make it free.” View on YouTube

ProPublica (and possibly Vanity Fair) will win a Pulitzer Prize for their joint investigative reporting on the Covid-19 lab-leak theory published around 2022.

“ProPublica has done an investigation, and they're saying, along with Vanity Fair and they're going to win a Pulitzer for this, I bet that this conspiracy theory from two years ago is probably actually the leading theory” View on YouTube

The All-In hosts will hold an "All-In Summit" conference with roughly 100–200 attendees in Q1 or Q2 of 2022.

“for those of you wondering, you know, we're going to do our own all in summit, which will be probably like 100 or 200 iconoclastic people. Uh, and we're going to probably do that in the first quarter or second quarter of next year.” View on YouTube

Elizabeth Holmes has about an 80% chance of being found guilty at trial, and if convicted, her prison time served will be around 32.5 months (with an implied prediction that the actual term served will be close to that over/under).

“I put her at 80% likelihood of guilty, and I put the over under at 32.5 months served served.” View on YouTube

China’s strict video game time limits for minors have a non-trivial chance (on the order of 5–10%) of contributing to significant social unrest or protest in China in the ensuing years.

“So you could see this. Actually, I think, you know, maybe it's a small chance 5% or 10%, you know, creating a lot of social unrest.” View on YouTube

Major media platforms such as Netflix, Amazon, and Disney+ will evolve into bundled services that include video games and podcasts alongside TV and music, with Disney+ specifically integrating games into its subscription offering.

“I think all of these media companies are going to be video games, podcasts, TV shows and music. So I don't know if you saw Netflix is going to be doing podcasts about their shows and video games. I think Amazon will be video games content. It's all going to be one thing, and Disney Plus will have games built into Disney Plus. I bet in that subscription price.” View on YouTube

For properties in high‑risk fire and hurricane zones that become uninsurable or underinsured due to climate change, the US federal government will increasingly step in to compensate owners for disaster losses.

“ultimately the federal government is going to end up having to step in and pay people money for the loss.” View on YouTube

US governments will begin prohibiting new home construction in certain high‑risk fire and hurricane zones because the public sector cannot afford to continually underwrite those risks.

“the government's going to have to say the reality here is that we can't afford to do this, and you can't build homes there.” View on YouTube

New York City will move toward prohibiting residential use of basement apartments and will update building practices so that new structures’ ground levels are designed, like in Miami, to allow floodwaters to flow through (e.g., parking or open space on the first level instead of living space).

“So now New York's going to just basically have to say, you know what? All the basement apartments, all the basements that exist, they're not livable. You can't live in a basement anymore. And when we build new structures, the first floor is going to be built like they build them in Miami, which is for water to flow straight through them.” View on YouTube

OpenAI’s private‑market valuation of approximately $157 billion reached in 2024 will prove to be its peak; by the end of 2025, OpenAI’s enterprise value will be materially lower than that level.

“I think the one that is the most overpriced of of all of this, and I think is going to see their peak valuation is open AI... I think OpenAI's valuation made no sense... I think that that whole thing could blow up.” View on YouTube

In 2025, at least one major strategic partnership will be formed among the large autonomy/e-commerce/logistics players Amazon, DoorDash, Uber, Tesla, and Waymo focused on autonomy, delivery, food delivery, or e‑commerce.

“I think the age of autonomy is here, and I think there is going to be some partnerships that will happen between Amazon, DoorDash, Uber, Tesla, Waymo and that cohort.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2025, at least one major strategic partnership or merger/acquisition will be announced among the set of large autonomy and logistics players (Amazon, DoorDash, Uber, Tesla, Waymo and similar), aimed at integrating autonomous vehicles or delivery with large‑scale e‑commerce or food/ride delivery.

“I think there is going to be some partnerships that will happen between Amazon, DoorDash, Uber, Tesla, Waymo and that cohort... Tesla buying DoorDash and Uber or Amazon buying DoorDash and Uber could be the greatest service ever created.” View on YouTube

Ridesharing’s share of total rides (by trip count) in the US will increase from roughly 1.5% to around 20% within a few years from 2025 (described as "a very short period of time").

“the Tam is going to go to 20% in a very short period of time, and it's going to be across the board.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2025, OpenAI will lose its market leadership and fall to at least fourth place among AI labs by enterprise value and/or technical leadership, amounting to a functional collapse of its current dominant position.

“My most contrarian belief was OpenAI loses its lead, loses its non-profit to for profit transition, and becomes the number four player in AI. The total collapse of OpenAI is my most contrarian prediction for 2020.” View on YouTube

In 2025, the group of largest US tech stocks often called the "Mag 7" (e.g., Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla) will be the best‑performing major asset class, outperforming broad equity indices and other highlighted asset picks.

“I think the Mac seven is going to be the best performing asset.” View on YouTube

In 2025, legacy auto OEM equities and real‑estate investments (particularly in overbuilt US markets) will be among the worst‑performing major asset classes.

“I think legacy car companies and real estate are going to face continued headwinds and be terrible assets... So I think these are going to be the two worst performing asset” View on YouTube

In 2025, venture capital DPI (distributions to paid‑in capital) will surge due to a marked increase in tech M&A activity and IPO volume following reduced antitrust pressure from Lina Khan’s FTC.

“exits in DPI shower down and we'll have this incredible distribution. As the wrath of Khan ends and M&A and IPOs will surge. That is my prediction my most anticipated trend.” View on YouTube

SaaS valuation multiples will not return to the elevated 12–16x EV/forward-revenue levels seen during the 2021 bubble, at least for the foreseeable future.

“And if you think it's getting back to 12 or 16, it's not not happening is not happening.” View on YouTube

Societal and policy responses to COVID-19 in the near future will evolve into a de facto two-class system in which vaccinated people operate under one set of rules and restrictions, and unvaccinated people are subject to a different, more restrictive set of rules.

“We're going to move to a two class system here. If you're vaccinated, you get one set of rules, and if you're not vaccinated, you get another.” View on YouTube

If current growth trends continue, Amazon's advertising business annual revenue will surpass Amazon Web Services (AWS) annual revenue within three years of this statement (by around May 2024).

“Amazon's ad business, 24 billion growing at 77% year over year on top of their Amazon Web Services business. ... It'll be bigger than AWS in three years at this rate.” View on YouTube

By around five years after this March 2025 episode (circa 2030), if Stripe launches a widely adopted stablecoin, Stripe’s main business could be managing roughly $300 billion of stablecoin float earning 3–5% annually, generating on the order of $10–20 billion in annual pure profit.

“I do think Stripe's main business could be if we're sitting here in five years, Chamath could be sitting on $300 billion and getting whatever it is three, 4 or 5% on some coupon, right? They could be making ten, $20 billion in pure profit if they have a stablecoin out there that gets widely adopted.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2025, more than 5,000 Trump "gold card" golden visas will be sold (i.e., the total count will fall in the 5,000‑plus bracket, exceeding the 2,500–5,000 range discussed on Polymarket).

“I'm taking the I'm taking the way over. So what do you think... I think I might take 5000 and above here.” View on YouTube

The U.S. government will ultimately be able to sell roughly 75% of its currently leased or owned office real‑estate footprint that is now unused or underutilized (e.g., in agencies like Veterans Affairs), disposing of about three‑quarters of that excess office space.

“Yeah, half the office space is not being used. The other half is being underutilized. It's bonkers... They're going to be able to sell 75% of this stuff.” View on YouTube

By roughly 10 years from this July 1, 2023 episode (i.e., by July 1, 2033), Vladimir Putin will have lost power in Russia, with the primary precipitating cause understood in hindsight to be either (a) serious illness such as cancer or (b) negative consequences arising from his 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

“I think we're going to see in the next ten years Putin lose power and he's going to be out of power. And when we look back on it, it's going to be one of two causes. It's going to be either cancer... or through his invasion of Ukraine.” View on YouTube

Within roughly 90 days of this May 31, 2021 episode, the U.S. government will already know that COVID-19 leaked from the Wuhan lab, and after the 90‑day review period it will begin concrete policy moves to become more economically independent from China (e.g., reshoring or diversification initiatives framed explicitly as reducing dependence on China).

“My gut tells me that our government already knows this, has known it for some time. The 90 day window that they've given the Chinese to kind of give us an answer as to what happened here is window dressing. And then we're going to start the process of becoming more independent from China” View on YouTube

Joe Biden’s handling of the border wall issue (including auctioning off unused wall components and then reversing course to build new barriers) is likely to be a significant enough political liability that it could cause him to lose the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“I think this could cost him the election.” View on YouTube

Waymo will launch its commercial robotaxi service in Los Angeles in the near term following its 24/7 operations in San Francisco and Phoenix (implied within the next few years after 2023).

“Waymo. Very expensive cars, by the way. They're currently in San Francisco and Phoenix 24 over seven. They're going to launch in LA soon.” View on YouTube

Widespread, fully deployed autonomous robotaxi/self‑driving services (at scale, not just limited pilots) are likely about 10 years away from 2023 (i.e., around 2033) before they are fully rolled out.

“It's obvious that these are getting there. The question is, is I think it's more like ten years before this is fully deployed.” View on YouTube

High-reliability robotaxi / autonomous driving deployments in non‑grid, bad‑weather regions like the U.S. Northeast (e.g., Boston) are more than 10 years away from 2023 (so not before ~2033), while in dry, flat, grid-based, good‑weather cities like Phoenix and parts of California and Austin, such deployments are viable now (early 2020s).

“the northeast will be the last place when you go to Boston or you know, you're in other places that don't have a grid based system and you have ice and snow. This stuff is ten plus years out, but in a dry place with consistent weather like California, Phoenix, etc. it's it's now right?” View on YouTube

Many of the individuals who participated in storming the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021 will be prosecuted and sentenced to jail on multiple felony charges, with cases progressing over the months and few years following the attack.

“And you got the prediction right. Like these people are going. To go to jail. There's multiple felonies.” View on YouTube

In the years following January 2021, new peer‑to‑peer, decentralized social or communication platforms (similar to Mastodon) will be deployed and gain enough adoption to compete with incumbent centralized platforms, and due to their technical architecture it will be effectively impossible for centralized actors (such as app stores or hosting providers) to ban or deplatform them.

“There are free market solutions that will emerge. Bitcoin is something we've talked about is an incredible run. Nobody's controlling that. There is Mastodon and plenty of other peer to peer software that will be deployed, I predict, and that will put up a competition now for these services. And it will be impossible to ban those peer to peer, uh, platforms. And so we'll have some products emerge.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani, and Donald Trump Jr. will face civil and/or criminal charges related to their roles in inciting the events of January 6, 2021, with legal actions brought against them in the months or years following January 2021.

“the people who really incited this, uh, and they're going to face some amount of civil and criminal charges, I believe” View on YouTube

Following Parler’s deplatforming in January 2021, alternative platforms or services will emerge in the market to serve the same user demand for that style of social network, providing a notable competitive response within the next few years.

“There'll be a free market response to Parler being shut down.” View on YouTube

The January 6, 2021 Capitol attack will be subject to a major official investigation comparable in scope and formality to the 9/11 Commission or the Ukraine inquiry.

“I think it's all going to get investigated. It's going to be like a nine over 11 commission all over again or Ukraine, etc..” View on YouTube

Between late May 2024 and late July 2024 (the next 30–60 days from this recording), the Democratic Party will replace Joe Biden with a different presidential candidate for the 2024 election.

“And so I think if that's the case, we really need to have the Democrats think deeply about maybe fielding a different candidate. And I believe that's what's going to happen in the next 30 to 60 days. So I'm predicting.” View on YouTube

In the first Biden–Trump debate on June 27, 2024, Donald Trump will clearly outperform Joe Biden, after which Biden’s national polling support will drop to roughly 30%, prompting Democratic Party leaders to orchestrate a face‑saving withdrawal by Biden from the race and to field a different Democratic presidential nominee.

“I think Trump's going to demolish him in the debate. I think he'll sink to 30% in the polls. And then the Republicans are going to find, I'm sorry, the Democrats will find a way to give him a graceful out, and then they'll feel somebody else.” View on YouTube

If the Democratic Party replaces Joe Biden with another presidential candidate during June 2024, that replacement Democratic candidate will go on to defeat Donald Trump by a landslide margin in the November 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“I think the Democrats need to immediately this month, in June, do the switcheroo. And if they do, I think they win in a landslide.” View on YouTube

At Dr. Anthony Fauci’s scheduled appearance before the House subcommittee on the origins of COVID‑19 on the Monday immediately following this May 31, 2024 episode, the hearing will feature highly contentious, revealing, and widely covered exchanges that significantly escalate public controversy over Fauci’s role in COVID‑19 origins and the alleged cover‑up.

“By the way, this is going to crack open. I encourage you all to be vocal about this and to watch on Monday, because Doctor Fauci is scheduled to appear in a hearing before this same subcommittee, and that is going to be explosive.” View on YouTube

The upcoming Monday hearing of Dr. Fauci before the same Congressional subcommittee (following this May 31, 2024 episode) will be highly eventful and newsworthy, with major revelations ("crack open" the COVID cover‑up issue) and be perceived as "explosive".

“this is going to crack open. I encourage you all to be vocal about this and to watch on Monday, because Doctor Fauci is scheduled to appear in a hearing before this same subcommittee, and that is going to be explosive.” View on YouTube

By the 2024 U.S. general election, a clear pro‑crypto regulatory framework will emerge as a political issue, and supporting crypto will be worth roughly 5 percentage points of the vote in that election.

“I think we're going to I think we're going to get a regulatory, you know, back to the young people we talked about in the previous story. I think the reason they're attracted to crypto is because it doesn't have government control... And they're getting organized to your point, sacks. I think we're going to have a crypto framework, and it's worth probably five points in this election.” View on YouTube

Trump’s New York business‑records conviction will ultimately result in a relatively minor effective consequence ("a speeding ticket"), either through being overturned or mooted by some form of clemency (such as a pardon or equivalent), rather than leading to severe long‑term punishment.

“I think he's going to get a speeding ticket. I do think it's going to get overturned... I think there's going to be some sort of a pardon... I don't think this is incredibly heinous.” View on YouTube

The 2024 summer boot camp and tournament for women run by Poker Power, limited to 80 spots, will fill all available spots quickly after this episode’s release (i.e., will sell out rather than having vacancies close to the start date).

“There's only 80 spots. Go ahead and join at poker Power.com. Bootcamp. Poker Power.com bootcamp. It's going to fill up quick” View on YouTube

When the All-In Podcast YouTube channel reaches 1,000,000 subscribers, the hosts will hold a party in Las Vegas to celebrate, at or shortly after the time that milestone is reached.

“And we're going to do a party in Vegas. My understanding when we hit a million subscribers.” View on YouTube

Within a few years of this March 31, 2023 discussion, Google’s Bard-based products will overtake OpenAI’s ChatGPT in overall consumer usage and strategic importance in the AI assistant market.

“I think that Google will roll. I think they're going to roll ChatGPT.” View on YouTube

By March 31, 2024, Larry Page and Sergey Brin will return to operational leadership at Google/Alphabet as co‑CEOs and will personally lead a major public demo event (e.g., Google I/O) showcasing Google’s AI products.

“within next year. Larry and Sergey take the title of co-CEOs, and then they do a demo day where the two of them get on stage and they actually do the demos of these products.” View on YouTube

Jeff Bezos will at some point in the future run for President of the United States.

“And Bezos is gonna run for president.” View on YouTube

Within a short period after March 2023 (on the order of a few years), entire categories of modern white‑collar jobs such as illustrators, logo designers, accountants, and sales development reps will largely disappear as distinct human job functions, with their work being done primarily by AI systems.

“I think these could wholesale just go away and they would just be done by AI. And I think it's going to happen in a very short period of time.” View on YouTube

For approximately the next 10–20 years from 2023, AI will not cause a wholesale elimination of software development jobs; demand for human software developers will remain high due to the large amount of software still needing to be built.

“I don't think we'll see it in software development for a decade or two. There's just so much software that still needs to be made.” View on YouTube

Trump goes all-in on masks, vaccine news improves through the fall, US COVID-19 deaths fall under 250/day by September 15, 2020, the stock market rallies, and Trump outperforms expectations against Biden in the first presidential debate at the end of September 2020.

“By September 15th, the market rips ... Biden dunks on a senile or maybe not crisp Biden. Trump sails in” View on YouTube

Jason assigns a 5% probability that Donald Trump will drop out of the 2020 presidential race before the election, in exchange for an implicit or explicit deal not to prosecute him after leaving office.

“I think he might drop out. I think I'm putting it out there. I think there's a 5% chance he doesn't want to be demolished. And he says, you know what? I'll take the deal. You agree to not prosecute me getting out of here? Uh, I'll take it.” View on YouTube

Over the next several years, frontier large language models as proprietary assets will rapidly lose differentiated economic value, with most model capabilities becoming available via open‑source models and commoditized offerings rather than through a few highly valuable closed models.

“Gavin Baker came on this podcast and said it's the fastest deprecating asset in the world, was a large language model. He's been proven right. They're not worth anything. They're all going to be open source. They're all going to be commoditized.” View on YouTube

During Donald Trump’s second term (roughly 2025–2029), the Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”) will increase identified/claimed federal savings from about $1 billion per day to approximately $3 billion per day and sustain that level long enough that the implied per‑family benefit would total roughly $60,000 for a family of five over the full term.

“Doge is claiming on the interwebs to be saving American taxpayers around $1 billion a day... And they claim they can triple this. And so for a family of five, that'd be about, what, $15,000 a year, maybe $60,000 during Trump's second term.” View on YouTube

Robinhood Markets, which IPO’d at roughly a $30 billion valuation in July 2021, has a non‑trivial chance to grow its equity value by 10–30x and eventually reach a market capitalization of approximately $1 trillion at some point in the future.

“I think Robin Hood going out at 30 billion. There's a chance this could go ten 2030 X from here. I think it could be $1 trillion company someday.” View on YouTube

90-95% of AI compute workloads will shift to run locally on stacked commodity hardware (like Mac Studios) rather than the cloud, giving users full control of their own data.

“the M5 chips coming to these Mac studios and if you want more power you stack it up and then the open source models are getting easier. So what's going to happen is 90% or 95% of our jobs are going to go to this local hardware will control it.” View on YouTube

On the Thursday night of this recording (shortly after August 30, 2024), Kamala Harris and Tim Walz will appear together in an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash.

“Kamala and Waltz will do an interview with Dana Bash tonight, uh, the night we're taping this on Thursday” View on YouTube

OpenAI will generate approximately $1 billion in revenue over the full calendar year 2023.

“Reportedly, though to their credit, they are on track to generate $1 billion in revenue in 2023.” View on YouTube

Retail investors who buy shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (ticker DJT) around the time of this discussion (late March 2024) will, on average, lose a large amount of money relative to their purchase price over time.

“you'll lose a large amount of money, I predict if you buy this, and if you're buying it as a protest vote, sure, go for it.” View on YouTube

Investors who purchase Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock around late March 2024 will, in aggregate, lose a large portion of their invested capital over time compared to their initial purchase price.

“Be careful out there, folks. You will lose a large portion of money, is my prediction if you buy this stock. But feel free if you want to gamble.” View on YouTube

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the RFK Jr.–Nicole Shanahan independent ticket will siphon off roughly a couple of percentage points of the vote from Joe Biden in key swing states.

“I think this could be the this could I think they could could peel off a couple of percentage points. Yeah. In those states.” View on YouTube

The All-In Podcast YouTube channel will hold a live Q&A stream once the channel reaches approximately 600,000 YouTube subscribers, and will host an in-person 'million subscriber party' event when the channel reaches 1,000,000 subscribers, attempting to invite and accommodate as many fans as possible at that party.

“When we hit a million subscribers, which we're well on our way to halfway there, I think we're going to throw a million subscriber party. And so yeah, subscribe. And you might get an invite. And we're going to try to have as many people at the million subscriber party as possible. When we hit, I think 600,000, we're going to do a live Q&A on the channel.” View on YouTube

If Donald Trump runs for president in the 2024 cycle, he will secure and "lock up" the Republican Party nomination, likely within roughly 12–18 months from this July 2022 conversation (i.e., by early 2024).

“Given what you've said about being disgusted by, like, the um, you know, uh, denying, uh, you know, this voter fraud conspiracy stuff by Trump or whatever, if Trump wins the nomination, which I think he will, uh, how are you going to be able to when we're on the show a year from now and Trump has the nomination or, you know, 18 months from now, whenever it is that he locks it up and he will lock it up if he runs.” View on YouTube

If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. runs as an independent in 2024, his popular vote share will exceed Ross Perot’s 19% third‑party result from 1992 (i.e., RFK Jr. will get more than 19% of the national popular vote).

“What do we think he will get if he runs as an independent, just percentage wise? Ross Perot as a third party candidate, 19%, you think better than 19%.” View on YouTube

The No Labels third‑party effort will announce Joe Manchin as its presidential (or leading) candidate in the near term, likely in early 2024.

“They're probably going to announce Joe Manchin any day now.” View on YouTube

The roughly $150 million civil judgment against Rudy Giuliani in the defamation case discussed will be reduced by a large percentage on appeal (i.e., the final enforceable amount after appeals will be substantially lower than the original award), with this reduction occurring in the near term following the December 2023 conversation.

“Yeah, these awards are curious and how large they are. They all get appealed though, and they all come down, so I'm sure that'll come down by some massive percentage in the near future.” View on YouTube

The fourth annual All-In Summit will take place as an in-person event in Los Angeles on September 8–9, 2025.

“What an amazing event we're going to have September 8th and ninth in Los Angeles. The fourth annual All in Summit.” View on YouTube

Founder University will expand to Asia, resulting in the program operating in three cities total starting in calendar year 2026.

“And then we're going to launch it in Asia next. So we'll have it in three cities starting next year.” View on YouTube

Founder University, in partnership with Sanabil (phonetic: Sonabel), will hold a week-long program in Riyadh in November 2025, with B physically spending a week there.

“We will be bringing our Founder University along with Sonabel, which is the leading venture firm in the region. They're in November, so I'm going to be spending a week there” View on YouTube

The Federal Reserve will reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points at the September 2025 FOMC meeting.

“They're going to cut 25 obviously in September.” View on YouTube

The Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate at the September 2025 FOMC meeting.

“And there's going to be a rate cut in September. So it's all good.” View on YouTube

By December 31, 2023, large language model–based AI systems (e.g., ChatGPT-4 and similar tools) will be capable of performing roughly 30% of the tasks currently done by typical white‑collar knowledge workers, at a quality level sufficient to be practically usable in real businesses.

“I think by the end of this year, 30% of knowledge work could be done by this.” View on YouTube

Any white‑collar/knowledge worker who does not start using and getting up to speed on modern AI tools (like ChatGPT-4) during 2023 will lose their job and be unable to compete in the labor market within roughly the following two years (by around the end of 2025).

“If you hear my voice right now and you're a white collar worker or knowledge worker and you're not using this this year and getting up to speed on it, I think you'll be out of a job within the next two GS.” View on YouTube

Within roughly the next 1–2.5 years from April 2023 ("five quarter ten" timeframe), the effective cost of performing white‑collar knowledge work, when leveraging AI tools, will fall by about 90%, to roughly 10% of its previous level.

“I don't know, I think everything's going to cost about ten. All this knowledge work is going to be 10% as expensive to do. I don't think it's 10% less Chamath or you know, I think it's like 90% $0.10 on the dollar to knowledge work.” View on YouTube

Assuming ongoing 20–30% annual revenue growth with flat or lower headcount, by roughly 2–3 years after September 27, 2024 (i.e., by late 2026 to late 2027), each of Google, Uber, Airbnb, and Meta will have approximately doubled their revenue per employee compared to their revenue per employee around 2023–2024.

“If you look at Google, Uber, Airbnb and Facebook meta, they have the same number or less employees than they did three years ago, but they're all growing in that 20 to 30% a year, which means in but 2 to 3 years, each of those companies has doubled revenue per employee.” View on YouTube

Once AR glasses become lighter and more mature as a product category (implicitly within the next several years), they will handle roughly one‑third of the tasks that people currently perform on their phones, with users commonly interacting via a combination of phone, watch, earbuds, and glasses.

“you'll have something on like focus mode or whatever the equivalent is in Apple, and a message will come in from your spouse or from your child, but you won't have to take your phone out of your pocket. And I think once these things weigh a lot less, you're going to have four different ways to interact with your computer in your pocket your phone, your watch, your AirPods, whatever you have in your ears and the glasses. And I bet you glasses are going to take like a third of the tasks you do.” View on YouTube

Over the next several years after October 2023, a significant number of venture capital firms will cease active operations—either formally shutting down or effectively becoming "zombie funds" that manage existing portfolios without raising new funds or leading new investments.

“Musical chairs, as you described it, is what is literally the description of the venture capital industry and GPS. Right now, a lot of people are losing their seats. H: Yeah. D: And there's a lot of shutdowns of venture firms. I think a lot of venture firms are going to shut down. This could be zombie funds.” View on YouTube

Following the 2021–2022 bubble, a large number of venture capital firms launched in the prior cycle will either shut down or become effectively non‑operating 'zombie funds' over the subsequent several years (through roughly the late 2020s).

“there's a lot of shutdowns of venture firms. I think a lot of venture firms are going to shut down. This could be zombie funds.” View on YouTube

Within roughly 10 years of October 2023 (by around 2033), the Middle East region (including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, etc.) will become the world’s second‑largest region for venture capital activity (e.g., capital deployed or ecosystem size), behind only the United States.

“I will say this is going to be the number two region in venture capital, and it's going to be that in ten years, because I met with a lot of the family offices, and the family offices here are extraordinary.” View on YouTube

The Palmer Luckey confrontation session from the All-In Summit will be released as a podcast episode in the week following this recording (i.e., in early June 2022).

“I'm looking forward to when you release... A great episode. It's going to be coming out next week.” View on YouTube

In the week following this episode’s release (the week after May 27, 2022), Friedberg will return to the podcast and an ‘explosive’ Palmer Luckey episode will be released, resulting in a week with multiple strong All-In podcast content releases.

“Freiburg will be back next week, as will the Palmer Luckey explosive episode. So look for a great week of all in content next week.” View on YouTube

ChatGPT will reach 1 billion users within the next one to two months (roughly by mid-2026).

“So it's about 5%. Where do Where do you think this winds up? ... They got a billion users or they're trended to a billion. I think they'll probably hit it in the next month or two. Certainly they had 900 million two or three months ago.” View on YouTube

As Apple, Meta, and Windows enter the consumer AI chat market, ChatGPT's consumer market share will fall well under 50%.

“If you give them credit for just getting, you know, a half point of market share here and starting to intercept, which I think those three players were here will be here. They're going to be well under 50% market share and I think ChatGPT is going to have some big challenges there on the consumer side.” View on YouTube

Nvidia will launch a direct competitor to OpenAI in response to OpenAI building its own chips.

“Don't be surprised if Nvidia starts an OpenAI competitor. You heard it here first on allin.” View on YouTube

For roughly the next 20 years, the combination of zero interest rates plus massive direct fiscal and monetary stimulus seen in 2020–2021 will not be repeated in the U.S. economy.

“I don't think in our lifetime we're going to see that 2020, 2021 again, I don't think that's happening for 20 years or so.” View on YouTube

The economic situation for legacy media companies (job cuts, closures, financial stress) will continue to deteriorate further from 2024 onward, with more layoffs and shutdowns over the next few years.

“So it's going to get worse and worse.” View on YouTube

The Elon Musk vs. Twitter takeover dispute (including the whistleblower revelations) will remain one of the dominant, defining business stories for the remainder of calendar year 2022.

“This is gonna be the story of 2022 for sure.” View on YouTube

In the coming years, concerns over government access to cloud‑hosted data will drive a noticeable shift in consumer and small‑business behavior, with increased adoption of (a) local or self‑hosted "mini servers" and user‑controlled encrypted storage, and (b) cloud and device services architected so that providers do not hold decryption keys.

“This is going to lead to a lot of people moving off of the cloud I predict we're seeing. And in fact, Apple is now storing your data and a lot of your privacy information locally on your phone. And if it's encrypted, they can't hand it over.... I do think you're going to see people buy mini servers to put or rent their own cloud services that are encrypted and impossible to unlock. And so look for that trend to come, or more companies to encrypt it and say, we don't have the keys,” View on YouTube

In the near term (around the early‑to‑mid 2020s), the market will see widespread availability and consumer uptake of bundled privacy suites (combining VPNs, private search engines, and privacy‑focused browsers) priced on the order of $20–30 per month as mainstream offerings.

“You can do it for 25 bucks a month, you know, 2 or 300 bucks a year, which is a big number for maybe the average Joe, but it's, it's it's being packaged and bundled right now so that you're seeing the VPNs, the anonymous search engines, the browsers all starting to bundle. They're bundling a set, a suite of services. And so I think this is upon us now and consumers get it and they want to protect their privacy.” View on YouTube

Meta/Facebook will capture roughly 10 percentage points of global web search market share (currently dominated by Google) within the next several years as a result of integrating its AI search box into Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook, and meta.ai.

“just like Apple and Firefox were able to intercept search traffic, I think. And let's make a prediction here that meta is going to get ten points of the search market.” View on YouTube

By approximately 3–4 years after this April 26, 2024 episode (i.e., by April 2027–April 2028), Meta will hold about 10% share of the search market.

“So we might be sitting here in 3 or 4 years watching meta have, I don't know, ten.” View on YouTube

It will take roughly 5–7 years from April 2024 (i.e., until about 2029–2031) before autonomous robotaxi-style self‑driving services account for even low single‑digit percentages of overall ride volume in the transportation market.

“So I think that vision is five, six, seven years out from having low single digit percentages.” View on YouTube

Autonomous driving (robotaxis and similar services) will account for roughly 5–10% of total rides in the ride‑hailing/transport market in about 5–10 years from April 2024 (i.e., by roughly 2029–2034).

“So I think to the more important question is when can automated be 5% or 10% of rides? And I think that's 5 or 10 years from now.” View on YouTube

The share of total rides provided by robotaxis/autonomous services will increase only slowly, on the order of roughly 1–2 percentage points of market share per year once deployment begins, rather than being an abrupt, rapid displacement of human‑driver ride‑hailing like Uber.

“Yeah, unlikely I think unlikely. I think it's going to be a very slow rollout. You know, 1 or 2% a year. So but you know it compounds.” View on YouTube

Over the next U.S. presidential term (the 4‑year administration beginning January 2025), total additional federal spending/deficits will be on the order of roughly $8–10 trillion regardless of whether the Democrat or Republican candidate wins.

“Most of the reports out say they're going to spend another 10 trillion in the next administration, independent of who you vote for… And I think one party will do a tax cut and spend eight, nine, 10 trillion. The other party will spend 10 trillion and maybe raise taxes a little bit. It's going to net net into the same place.” View on YouTube

Over the next 4–10 years (covering the next one to two U.S. presidential administrations starting in 2025), the U.S. will experience a severe contraction in white‑collar employment, with a large reduction in the number of white‑collar jobs relative to recent years.

“And then I think what we'll see on top of that is what I think could be cataclysmic contraction in white collar employment in the United States over the next 4 to 10 years, next to administrations.” View on YouTube

Significant federal fiscal austerity measures (meaning meaningful cuts or constraints on U.S. government spending to address debt and deficits) will be implemented not in the 2025–2029 administration but in the subsequent administration (approximately 2029–2033).

“it probably won't come in this next administration, but certainly the one after that is going to have to do some belt tightening. And we're going to have to address this issue because spending…” View on YouTube

Over the next 5–10 years, U.S. federal debt will increase by on the order of an additional $20 trillion and large corporations will maintain lean headcounts with high efficiency and profitability; as a result, holders of equities and real estate will see very strong financial performance while roughly 40–50% of Americans without significant asset ownership will experience worsening financial stress.

“So the two pieces here that we haven't seen before is what happens when you put another, I don't know, $20 trillion of debt into the US economy. And what happens when companies, the big ones, stop hiring and they just become wildly efficient and become wildly profitable, and this will be a renters rentiers, you know, story where people who have equities and people who own property are going to do fabulous over the next 5 to 10 years, and then the 40%, 50% of people who don't are going to really be feeling a pinch.” View on YouTube

Jason Calacanis predicts that in the final 1–2 weeks before the November 2024 U.S. election, there will be a substantial amount of fake news, including possible deepfake media, circulating on social media.

“I think there's going to be a lot of fake news, maybe even deepfakes that come out, you know, in the last week or two.” View on YouTube

From mid‑2021 onward, the current wave of cancel culture and political hysteria will subside; within the next several years, public discourse (the Overton window) will broaden, with significantly fewer instances of people being socially or professionally “canceled” over years‑old statements, and institutions and audiences will become more accepting of controversial or non‑mainstream ideas.

“here's my prediction. I think the pirates are assembling themselves, whether it's Coinbase saying we're not going to have politics at work or Antonio and, uh, the end of cancel culture, the end of taking the historical left or the historical or the trolling. Right? Seriously, I feel like that is ending and this great, like nightmare of hysteria, uh, and is going to end and the Overton Window is going to blossom and open up and people are gonna, uh, be more innovative and accepting of new ideas and be reasonable and not cancel people who wrote something five or 10 or 20” View on YouTube

New York’s current combined top income-tax burden (around 17% for high earners) will trigger a significant out-migration of high-income residents, similar to the earlier exodus from New Jersey and Connecticut, materially weakening New York’s tax base over the coming years.

“That's going to happen in New York. I mean, I think they're going to have an exodus, just like new Jersey and Connecticut did. And that actually rocked the tax base in those two geographies.”

The Scarlett Johansson vs. OpenAI dispute over the ChatGPT "Sky" voice will be resolved via an out-of-court settlement, without a final court judgment that materially clarifies or changes U.S. fair-use case law.

“What happens in these content cases is they get settled almost every single time. So the case law doesn't get codified, they just get settled out of court. If you go look at all the fair use cases, they almost never go to the mat. And so this one will just be settled.”

The All In Summit event will take place in Los Angeles on September 8–10, 2024, with attendees present (i.e., it will not be canceled or fully virtual-only).

“And we'll see you all at the All In Summit in September.”

Before the All In Summit scheduled for September 8–10, 2024 in Los Angeles, the organizers will announce and offer some number of scholarship tickets for attendees.

“The All In Summit is taking place in Los Angeles on September 8th through the 10th. You can apply for a ticket at summit Dot podcast. Scholarships will be coming soon.”

If and when the All In Podcast YouTube channel reaches 1,000,000 subscribers, the hosts will hold a celebratory in-person party in Las Vegas within a reasonable period (e.g., within about a year of crossing that threshold).

“we're going to do a party in Vegas. My understanding when we hit a million subscribers.”

By June 17, 2023, the price of Bitcoin will almost certainly remain far below $1,000,000 per coin; the probability that Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 by that date is characterized as extremely low (near zero).

“he's betting 2 million in total on Bitcoin hitting 1 million by June 17th which there's probably no chance of that happening or a very tiny chance” View on YouTube

Joe Biden will ultimately choose not to run for re-election in 2024, instead announcing that he will retire and not seek a second term, likely citing age/family reasons amid economic difficulties.

“Well, I don't think he's going to run again. I think they're going to have you don't think Biden's... I think between then and now if the economy keeps going the way it's going, he would be a lame duck and impossible. And I think he might say, you know what, I'm going to retire to spend time with my kids and my golden years, and they might convince him that him running again is a really bad idea.” View on YouTube

Despite no current White House decision, the US government will eventually move to formally ban (Chinese) open-source AI models, with current rhetoric about guardrails laying the groundwork for that action.

“I think again they're trying to create ideas or put predicate facts in the public record to justify an action later on. I think it's just a matter of time before they feel like they're at a position where maybe they can push for that type of ban directly.” View on YouTube

The music industry and similar well-resourced rights-holder groups will win their ongoing AI copyright disputes (e.g., cases like Thomson Reuters v. Ross) against AI companies, forcing licensing settlements.

“And that's why I think the music industry is going to win and and some other places are going to win.” View on YouTube

Full‑body diagnostic scans like the one described will decline in price to roughly $500–$1,000 per scan and become widely adopted by the general population, with AI systems using the accumulated imaging data for early disease detection.

“If this thing gets down to like 500 bucks, which it obviously will, or a thousand bucks and everybody's doing it, and then all that data is in there, and then the AI is looking at it like you're saying. I mean, the AI early detection.” View on YouTube

Quora, by leveraging its Q&A corpus and products like the Poe chatbot, will emerge as the leading AI application company going forward, surpassing current incumbents like ChatGPT in practical consumer relevance; Reddit likewise has significant potential to become a major AI answer platform if it launches its own chatbot.

“It's going to be I think Quora is the number one player in AI going forward. I know that sounds crazy, but the fact that and I think Reddit also has this insane potential if Reddit had a chatbot...” View on YouTube

The SpaceX-Cursor deal will be completed, either as a $60 billion acquisition of Cursor by SpaceX by end of 2026, or a $10 billion collaboration/breakup-fee payment to Cursor if the acquisition doesn't close.

“Bloomberg says you can think of that $10 billion essentially as a breakup fee. So I think it's fate a calm plea that this deal is going to get done.” View on YouTube

Within 12 months (by roughly April 2027), the combined SpaceX/xAI and Cursor coding AI offering will move to the front of the AI coding leaderboard.

“If you put these two together I predict that this is going to move space xxx AI and cursor to the front of the coding leaderboard within 12 months. That's my prediction.” View on YouTube

The previously speculated merger between Tesla and SpaceX will happen.

“Even Walter Isacson now is on the Tesla SpaceX merger train... He just did a pod. Everybody's confirmed it. It's going to happen. We called it here first.” View on YouTube

Tether will effectively split into two versions: a US-compliant stablecoin operating under the Genius Act rules, and a separate, less-regulated "Wild West" version operating outside the US.

“The likely scenario is there'll be two tethers, a United States one and then that complies and then there'll be the Wild West one outside the US. Is that what you've heard as well?” View on YouTube

Robotaxi/self-driving adoption will reach mainstream, Uber-like scale within about six years of January 2026 (by roughly 2032).

“I'm pretty optimist about it as well. I just having watched the robo taxi self-driving thing and just watching the velocity that it's getting better and having watched the Uber story up close for 12 years. I'm like yeah that's going to happen in six.” View on YouTube

Instacart will generate approximately $800 million in advertising revenue on an annualized basis for the year corresponding to the period in which the June 30, 2023 quarter occurs (i.e., full-year 2023).

“they think they can. You know, they're on track for 800 million in ad revenue.” View on YouTube

The U.S. Federal Reserve will implement at least one interest-rate cut by sometime in the second half of 2024 (i.e., within roughly one year of September 2023).

“And I guess 74% chance by the fourth quarter, third, fourth quarter of next year, people think there will be a rate cut. So we're a year away from a rate cut.” View on YouTube

The DOJ’s 2024 antitrust case against Apple will be resolved via a settlement (not full trial judgment), and as part of or as a consequence of that resolution: (1) Apple will release an official iMessage client for Android; and (2) Apple Watch will gain compatibility with non‑Apple phones (e.g., Android), in a way that ultimately benefits Apple commercially, making the overall outcome a net positive for Apple.

“I think this will be settled. And if you look at the different issues here, I think this is going to be actually a huge win for Apple, because if iMessage were to exist on Android, they would get all of those users to download iMessage, and they would have all those users. If they made the watch compatible, they would open up many more people to buy the watch and you would get more watches.” View on YouTube

Of the five categories named in the DOJ’s 2024 lawsuit against Apple (super apps, cloud gaming apps, messaging apps, smartwatches, and digital wallets), at least three will be materially changed in the government’s favor via settlement or ruling (i.e., Apple will be compelled to alter its practices in at least three of those five areas).

“These are five recent tactics. I think the government's going to win changing three of these. And that's win. That's a win for me.” View on YouTube

(1) The DOJ–Apple antitrust dispute over the five listed practice categories will culminate in a settlement where Apple concedes on roughly three of the five areas; (2) The net effect of the settlement will be positive for consumers (e.g., more interoperability/lower restrictions); and (3) The outcome will not seriously damage Apple’s long‑term business performance, making Apple stock an attractive long‑term investment despite the case.

“So anyway, I think three out of five of these get settled and it'll be good for consumers. Ultimately I would not financial advice, but I think that Apple is going to be able to manage this. I'd buy the stock. I may buy more of the stock. I think that this will be good for them long term.” View on YouTube

The current generation of AI-enabled robotics (circa 2024), unlike prior cycles, will successfully achieve widespread practical deployment and commercial success, marking the first sustained ‘working’ wave of general-purpose or broadly useful robotics.

“I just. Something tells me this robotic space, which has been a false start over and over and over again. I think this is the time where actually it's going to work. And so I'm I love that hardware robotics space for AI.” View on YouTube

Neuralink will make significantly larger or more impressive public announcements about its brain–computer interface technology within roughly one year of March 2024 (by around March 2025), indicating substantial progress beyond the initial quadriplegic chess demonstration.

“And there's more amazing stuff coming. They're making significant progress over there. I was talking to somebody who works there. And you know, it's it's it's going to be. Yeah, it's going to be a process. But they're making significant progress and they're going to have, I think, even bigger announcements in the coming year.” View on YouTube

If the All-In Podcast YouTube channel reaches 1 million subscribers by December 31, 2024, the hosts will organize and hold a public party, inviting as many listeners as feasible to attend.

“We decided that if we hit 1 million subscribers by the end of the year, we're going to throw a party and you all will be invited. We'll have as many people at the party as possible.” View on YouTube

Over the next 3–4 years (starting from July 22, 2022), the SEC will pursue a series of enforcement actions against multiple venture firms and related parties involved with crypto tokens that resemble securities, resulting in massive settlements and prolonged litigation spanning roughly 2022–2026.

“I think the SEC, now that everybody's lost their money, is going to just tick off one firm after another and it's going to be massive settlements. It's going to be 3 or 4 years of litigation.” View on YouTube

From 2025 onward, Germany and the broader European Union will permanently cease purchasing Russian oil, i.e., they will not resume importing Russian oil in the future.

“Germany. These people are never going to buy his oil again.” View on YouTube

During Donald Trump’s current term in office (the term active as of August 2025), there is roughly a 50% chance that he will successfully conclude a formal peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that ends the active war.

“I think he's great at negotiating with difficult people, and I think he's going to get it done. I think he's got a 5050 chance of getting this done,” View on YouTube

U.S. labor productivity, which has risen roughly 20% over the past decade, will continue to increase in the coming years, with the rate of productivity growth further boosted by the adoption of AI and related software tools.

“And that's going to keep ramping up with AI and all these amazing tools that are coming out.” View on YouTube

Stripe will go public (IPO) in the year 2050. (Stated humorously but as a concrete future date.)

“Stripes going public in 2050” View on YouTube

On March 13 (2025, in context), the All-In hosts Jason (A) and Freiberg will appear at South by Southwest, conduct interviews about the future of media and business, and host an intimate event with food and drinks for a few hundred attendees.

“All in is headed to South by Southwest on March 13th. Me and Freiberg are going to sit down and do our interviews. Two besties on the future of media and building businesses in this new media ecosystem. We're going to have a casual party. Food, drinks, the whole thing event is going to be pretty intimate. Couple hundred seats.” View on YouTube

After Freiberg’s Celebrity Jeopardy! episode airs, the All-In hosts will produce a recap segment covering every question from the episode.

“We are going to do a recap of every single question.” View on YouTube

New York, Boston, and Washington DC will ban Waymo robotaxis and limit autonomous vehicles with licensing restrictions.

“I will predict it now, they're going to ban Waymos in New York, Boston, DC, and they're going to limit them with licenses.” View on YouTube

The film "Dalíland" will be released to the public approximately two months after this April 21, 2023 episode release, i.e., by late June 2023.

“the film is called Dolly. Dolly land. ... [00:58:27.110]: Yeah, coming out in two months.” View on YouTube

In the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump has a better-than-even chance to win, aided by a material bloc of "shy" Trump voters who will not disclose their support to pollsters or acquaintances but will vote for him privately.

“So if he does lose and I don't know that he's going to lose, I think there's a lot of people who are going to go in there and vote for him, but not say it to pollsters and not say it to their family and friends because they're embarrassed... So I think it's a pretty good chance that he's going to win. Actually” View on YouTube

Aaron Levie will be invited back onto the All-In podcast within approximately two weeks of this recording (early January 2025) to discuss the hypothetical impact of allocating 5% of Box’s treasury to Bitcoin.

“Just buy put 5% of the Treasury 30 million in Bitcoin. And then we'll invite you back in two weeks. We'll see what happens okay.”

David Sacks will return as a host on the All-In podcast in future episodes, and thereafter the show will use a rotating "fifth seat" format featuring various friends of the podcast and newsmakers as recurring guests.

“And Sachs will be back. Sachs will be back and we will be rotating the fifth seat amongst, uh, you know, friends of the pod and newsmakers.”

It will take roughly another decade from now (through the mid‑2030s) of AI and software tooling evolution before fully AI-generated software systems become sustainably deployable at high quality in heavily regulated and mission‑critical environments.

“We've got another decade of evolution here to make these things sustainable and have a high quality.”

Within three years of this episode (by late 2027), OpenAI will no longer be a top‑two AI model provider by market position; instead it will rank roughly 3rd–5th, with Google Gemini, Meta, and xAI leading it in the market.

“I'm saying it right now. I think we've hit peak OpenAI in the market. I think they're going to be the number 3 or 4 player. I think Gemini, meta and Xai are going to lead them. If we're sitting here in three years, I think OpenAI's number three, 4 or 5, not 1 or 2.”

Following the May 2023 launch of the official ChatGPT mobile app, the number of ChatGPT users and overall usage volume will increase by roughly an order of magnitude (about 10x) relative to pre‑app levels, assuming broad app availability.

“They did? Oh, that's game over man. If this thing is an app form that's going to ten x the number of users and it's going to ten x the amount of usage” View on YouTube

Donald Trump will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election and become the 47th President of the United States.

“it is five days after an assassination attempt on the former president of the United States and the likely 47th president of United States. Obviously, President Trump” View on YouTube

Subsequent investigation of Thomas Matthew Crooks (the Trump rally shooter) will conclude that he acted as a lone individual primarily driven by mental illness, similar to prior celebrity/assassination cases, rather than as part of an organized political plot.

“this kid, I think it will ultimately turn out like all the other assassins we've seen, or these celebrity killings that occur, John Lennon, etc. it's usually a mentally ill person, likely. What happened here? We don't know yet.” View on YouTube

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 election and serves a second term, U.S. antitrust and regulatory policy under his administration will permit substantially more mid-market mergers and acquisitions in the tech sector, including many deals under roughly $100 billion in transaction value, compared with the level of M&A allowed under the Biden administration.

“I think we'll see under Trump a lot more mid-market M&A. If I were to, you know, let's call it under $100 billion, $100 billion acquisition would be fine with me. Under 100.” View on YouTube

President Joe Biden will resign from the 2024 presidential race or from office (i.e., formally step aside) during the weekend immediately following this episode’s release date of July 19, 2024 (i.e., by the end of Sunday, July 21, 2024).

“Apparently, Biden is predicted to resign this weekend. We'll see if it happens.” View on YouTube

The streaming video industry will undergo significant consolidation in the coming years, with a materially smaller number of major streaming services surviving compared to the number operating as of early 2024.

“It's clearly going to be a massive consolidation.” View on YouTube

Over the long term (next decade or so), Netflix and Disney+ will each grow their global subscriber bases to roughly 300–500 million users, and their large existing content libraries will make these streaming services highly cash-generative (“money printing”) without requiring heavy ongoing spending on new content.

“I think this is going to work really well for Netflix and Disney. Man, these huge archives that they own, these libraries are going to get them to three, 4 or 500 million global subs and has become money printing machines that I don't think they're going to need a ton of new content.” View on YouTube

If U.S. policymakers do not both (a) roll back the R&D amortization rules and (b) ease M&A/antitrust constraints on company sales over the next few years, a significant number of startups will fail that otherwise would have survived, materially reducing startup formation/survival in the U.S. tech ecosystem.

“You got to figure out a way to allow companies to be bought and sold. You got to figure out a way to to fix this tax issue, or else we're going to kill a lot of startups.” View on YouTube

The Trump Bloomberg interview and Kamala Harris Fox interview in mid-October 2024 will not materially change the election probabilities or polling; voter views are already effectively 'baked in' for the November 5, 2024 election.

“How do you think they're going to change after the interviews the last couple of days. Trump on Bloomberg and Kamala on Fox. Do you think they're going to change anything? ... I don't think so. I think it's all baked in now.” View on YouTube

Starlink has the potential to become the first product in history to reach approximately 500 million paying subscribers.

“And it could be the first 500 million subscriber product in the world.” View on YouTube

Societal life (including comedy and open discussion about COVID) will return to a largely pre‑pandemic "normal" relatively quickly after June 2021.

“I think we're going to go back to normal pretty quick.” View on YouTube

By mid‑2021, the acute phase of the COVID‑19 crisis in the US is effectively over, contingent mainly on remaining people getting vaccinated.

“But anyway, this is all over. If you haven't gotten your goddamn vaccine, please get it.” View on YouTube

Kamala Harris will become President of the United States and will be the first female U.S. president, either during Joe Biden’s first term (via succession) or by winning the election if Biden does not run for a second term.

“I think she winds up actually becoming president and will be the first female president of the year of in the history of the United States. And that could happen in the first term. Or if Joe Biden doesn't run for a second term” View on YouTube

Theatrical moviegoing will eventually recover strongly after COVID, and major tech platforms will acquire U.S. theater chains: Amazon will buy one major chain and Netflix will buy another, integrating theater access with their subscription offerings.

“they're gonna come back strong, they're gonna come back stronger. I think Amazon will buy one chain. I think Netflix buys the other.” View on YouTube

Disney+ will surpass Netflix in size (e.g., subscriber count or comparable primary scale metric) in the future.

“I think they I think they pass them.” View on YouTube

Nikola Corporation’s equity value will collapse to essentially zero (pennystock levels, e.g., around $0.60 per share) and the company will ultimately be worth effectively nothing.

“It's now worth 6 billion. I predict it will be worth $0.60. I kid you not, this company will go to zero, is my prediction” View on YouTube

Pete Buttigieg’s role as Secretary of Transportation will position him to become either a future U.S. vice‑presidential nominee or presidential nominee, and he will emerge as a prominent national political figure (“one of the bright stars”) in subsequent election cycles after 2020.

“Pete Buttigieg going on Fox recently. I think he did a masterful job... and then he gets himself this, uh, Secretary of transportation. And I think he's set up to either be the VP or the presidential candidate, uh, in the future. And he's I think he's going to be one of the bright stars.” View on YouTube

Andrew Yang will run for Mayor of New York City in the next New York City mayoral election following this December 2020 recording (i.e., the 2021 NYC mayoral race).

“My understanding is he's going to run for mayor of New York.” View on YouTube

By 6–12 months after August 18, 2023 (i.e., by February–August 2024), Donald Trump will no longer be an active candidate in the 2024 presidential race, and the Republican primary will effectively be a three-way contest among Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Ron DeSantis, with Christie and Ramaswamy having surged in support.

“I believe that you're going to see Chris Christie and Vivek Serge. It's going to be a three horse race with DeSantis, and I think Trump's going to be out of the race in the next 6 to 12 months.” View on YouTube

Within the 2024 election cycle, the Republican Party will formally or effectively break with Donald Trump (e.g., by withdrawing support or otherwise sidelining him) rather than continuing to back him as the party’s standard-bearer.

“I think they're going to cut ties. I think the Republican Party is going to expel him.” View on YouTube

At some point before Jeff Bezos dies, he will run for public office, specifically including a run for U.S. president as a serious candidate.

“I think Jeff Bezos will run in his lifetime” View on YouTube

At the Trump–Xi in‑person meeting in South Korea later in October 2025, the US and China will conclude a comprehensive "grand trade deal."

“Trump and XI are set to meet in South Korea later this month. They're going to work out a grand trade deal.” View on YouTube

Over time (no specific date given, but implied within the foreseeable future), most or all current driving and low-skill logistics roles such as Uber and DoorDash drivers, truck drivers, and Amazon warehouse/factory workers in the US will be eliminated due to automation and AI.

“they have somebody in their family who drives for Uber or DoorDash. They have truck drivers, they have Amazon factory workers, and all those jobs are going away. It's just a matter of when.” View on YouTube

AI foundation models will continue to become roughly 90% cheaper to run each year, implying that over any two-year period they will be approximately 99% cheaper and better than models from two years prior.

“these new models are so much more efficient that you actually can throw the old model in the garbage, because it's so inefficient, and these are now becoming about 90% cheaper every year, which means every two years these things are gonna be 99% cheaper and better.” View on YouTube

OpenAI’s long‑term strategy for ChatGPT/GPT access will be to make core individual usage effectively free or near‑free, and to monetize primarily by charging for multi‑user or collaborative (“multiplayer”) versions or features.

“OpenAI ... on a strategic level, is going to make all this free or close to free, and maybe just charge for a multiplayer version. That seems to be where it's heading.” View on YouTube

Over the coming years of the AI-driven productivity boom (implicitly the next several years after 2024), overall unemployment in the U.S. will remain low rather than rising significantly, with the primary adjustment being the creation of many more (often smaller) companies rather than widespread joblessness.

“The unemployment rate is going to stay very low. We’re just going to have more companies.” View on YouTube

A new type of company will emerge (and become relevant at scale) that specializes in clearing/licensing publisher content rights for AI-answer products like Google’s AI Overviews, acting as an intermediary between content creators and AI platforms.

“There’s going to need to be a new company that clears this content so that Google can do answers like this.” View on YouTube

The Russia–Ukraine war will end because the United States will stop funding Ukraine; specifically, U.S. political and public support for sending tens of billions of dollars per year to Ukraine will collapse such that this level of funding will not continue into years 2–3 of the war (i.e., it will substantially decline or cease by roughly 2024–2025), leading to an end of the conflict.

“The war is going to end there because we're not funding this. And American the American public is not going to want to see tens of billions of dollars go into Ukraine and to to fund this war in year 2 or 3.” View on YouTube

Within approximately 3–5 years from February 17, 2023 (i.e., by between early 2026 and early 2028), AI ethics and bias will become an active agenda item for politicians and be the subject of government attention or action.

“Here's an agenda item that politicians haven't gotten to yet, but I'm sure in three, four, five years they will. AI Ethics and Bias.” View on YouTube

Google's Bard large language model product will include a feature that provides source citations for its answers.

“Some of them do neeva notably is doing citations. And I think, I think Google's Bard is going to do citations as well.” View on YouTube

Eventually, essentially everyone (or nearly everyone) will contract COVID-19 (implicitly including Omicron) at some point in the future, regardless of current precautions or policies.

“I'm. I believe everybody's going to get it.” View on YouTube

OpenAI's new model, codenamed "Spud," will be released within the week following this episode, per a Polymarket estimate of 75% odds cited by Jason.

“And this new model, Spud, is coming uh from Open AI. Here's your poly market. 75% chance Spud is released next week.” View on YouTube

NBC's town hall with Trump (airing the same night as Biden's ABC town hall) will feature notably aggressive questioning of Trump, as a form of penance for giving him the competing platform.

“so i think nbc is going to come out swinging tonight in this town hall to try to you know take down trump as maybe their penance that's my prediction for it” View on YouTube

Trump will lose the November 2020 election to Biden, and the margin will be a landslide.

“so i think that trump's going to lose and it's going to be a landslide” View on YouTube

There is roughly a 50% chance that, after losing the election, Trump pursues broad pardons covering himself and his family before leaving office.

“that i think it's i think it's like a i think it's 50 50 he just goes for the full family pardon” View on YouTube

Within roughly six months from June 2023, Google will deploy AI capabilities that surpass ChatGPT‑4 in practice, and once integrated into its search/ad products this will increase advertisers' cost per click (CPC) due to improved targeting and user understanding.

“I think Google's not as far behind closed AI as we think... I think Google's going to be ChatGPT four. I'm saying it right here, right now. I think they're going to beat them, because I think that they're better at indexing all this information and understanding it than anybody on the planet, and they have the largest ad network. If they get this done in the next six months, I think it's going to increase the cost per click because they're going to know so much about each user.” View on YouTube

At some point after this episode (June 2023), the All-In Podcast will host Mayor Francis Suarez as a guest on the show.

“and Frances. Mayor Frances is now in the race, so I guess we'll have him on the pod.” View on YouTube

By around 2031 (within a decade from July 2021), between 1 and 2 billion additional people who previously lacked broadband will have broadband internet access, leading to a transformational impact on the planet’s economy and society.

“We're going to take 1 billion or 2 billion people and give them broadband instantly within a decade. This is going to change the face of the planet.” View on YouTube

Within 1–2 years from July 2021, the risk of death or serious injury per trip for commercial space tourism flights will become lower than the comparable risk per trip for riding a motorcycle, and at some later point will become lower than that for driving a car.

“I think that flying in space tourism in the next year or two will be safer than riding a motorcycle, and then eventually it'll be safer than, you know, driving a car or something. It's quite possible.” View on YouTube

Apple will launch its own general-purpose web search engine that directly competes with Google Search (e.g., offered as a primary search option or default on Apple devices) at some point in the future.

“I believe Apple is going to launch their own search engine and compete heads up with Google.” View on YouTube

In the near future (within a few years of August 2024), quick‑service and fast‑casual chains such as Starbucks and Sweetgreen will deploy significantly more robotics and automation in their stores to reduce labor and real‑estate costs.

“I think automation is what's going to come to this. I don't think you can sustain it... And I think that's what's going to we're going to see in the very near future is.” View on YouTube

Over time (within the next decade or so), widespread automation in chains like Starbucks and McDonald’s will largely eliminate traditional in‑store roles such as cashiers, cooks, and baristas, replacing most of that labor with automated systems or kiosks.

“So the cashiers will be gone, the cooks will be gone, and eventually the baristas will be gone” View on YouTube

Over the next few years, most employees (roughly 80% or more of knowledge workers) will be required by employers to return to working primarily from the office, with only a minority of top‑performing or “elite” workers retaining long‑term fully remote arrangements.

“Now that you know, you have this era of being fit and you don't need as many people from AI. I think everybody's coming back to the office. Unless you are part of the 20% of truly elite workers.” View on YouTube

For the November 2024 U.S. presidential election: (1) If Donald Trump maintains a ‘Trump 2.0’ style—presidential, non‑bullying, focused on issues and not grievance or culture‑war attacks—he has a realistic chance to win; (2) If Kamala Harris successfully positions herself as a moderate, she is likely to win the election.

“And I think Trump has a chance of winning if he does that. If Kamala goes moderate, I think she's going to win.” View on YouTube

By sometime in 2025, commercially available AI systems will include an orchestration/‘conductor’ agent that can coordinate multiple specialized AI agents in roles such as lawyer, accountant, developer, designer, etc., for a user acting as a CEO/founder or product manager.

“where this is going to be next year is there's going to be a conductor. There's going to be somebody who has a role or a piece of software has a role where you say, hey, you're a CEO of a company, you're a founder or a product manager, here's your lawyer, here's your accountant, here's your developers, here's your designer. And now you will coordinate those five people.” View on YouTube

In the next major U.S. election cycle after August 2025, real wage growth (stagnant wages vs. rising costs) will emerge as a central, compelling campaign issue for at least one major political party or prominent candidate.

“If you really want to make a compelling argument for the next election cycle, I think it's real wage growth.” View on YouTube

The All-In podcast hosts will hold a second All-In Summit conference in 2023.

“Well, you know, it's, uh, I think we're steering towards I think we're steering towards summit 2023.” View on YouTube

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Democrats will lose and Joe Biden will be defeated by Donald Trump by a large margin (i.e., not a narrow squeaker outcome).

“you're going to lose the election and Biden's going to get demolished.” View on YouTube

Before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Democratic Party will replace Joe Biden with another candidate as the party’s nominee for president (a "hot swap").

“you're going to get demolished if you don't hot swap them. I guarantee you hot swap is coming.” View on YouTube

Apple will monetize its system-level default large language model (LLM) integration on iOS/macOS by running a paid competition among model providers (e.g., OpenAI, Google, others) and awarding default placement to the highest bidder, similar to its existing default search-engine deals.

“Obviously, it doesn't take a genius to predict that Apple is going to auction off the LLM integration, I think, to the highest bidder. They did that with the search deal.” View on YouTube

Apple will become the dominant provider/platform for consumer-facing AI assistants on personal devices (phones, tablets, PCs) over the next AI adoption cycle, outcompeting other consumer AI platforms.

“And I think this means that Apple is going to win the AI consumer.” View on YouTube

Over the next couple of years following June 2024 (through roughly mid‑2026), most organizations will maintain roughly flat headcount levels while per‑employee productivity rises significantly due to AI tools, resulting in notably higher organizational efficiency without substantial net job cuts or net hiring.

“Anyway, this is going to make people bionic. I think all organizations will have the same number of people for the next couple of years. and then just individuals will get better and better at their jobs. And so efficiency is going to go way up.” View on YouTube

Following Ripple’s partial court win against the SEC (if it ultimately holds through appeals), crypto projects and companies will increasingly choose to litigate against the SEC rather than settle, leading to a wave of counter‑lawsuits challenging the SEC’s positions.

“And, you know, if people can feel a little bit more secure in it now, are we going to see like ten counter lawsuits and everybody is just going to sue the SEC and stand up for themselves? I think that's what's going to happen now if ripple wins this or if this ripple thing does work out, appeals, whatever.” View on YouTube

In future SEC challenges related to crypto‑sector M&A deals, companies will increasingly reject settlement offers and instead litigate those cases in court, making aggressive legal defense the norm for such M&A transactions.

“And I think that's what M&A is going to happen. All M&A, it's like well now the settlement is off the table. We're going to fight.” View on YouTube

Meta/Zuckerberg will have the best open-source AI model within the next year.

“He is gonna have the best open source model in the next year. I guarantee it.” View on YouTube

Text-to-video / AI VFX tools like Runway will reach visual quality comparable to The Mandalorian TV show within approximately two years of April 2023 (by around April 2025); the gap between AI-generated storyboards and final production-quality output will substantially close within about 30 months of April 2023 (by around October 2025).

“And I said, hey, when would this reach the level that The Mandalorian TV show is? And he said within two years... The difference between the storyboards and the output is closing in the next 30 months, I would say.” View on YouTube

Israel will not respond to the Hamas attacks with an extreme, indiscriminate "level the place"-type operation against Gaza; its military response will be more restrained than that maximal option.

“I get the sense that they're not going to go that hard.” View on YouTube

In the aftermath of the October 2023 Hamas attacks, governments and other actors in the Middle East and globally will renew and strengthen their commitment to normalization efforts and to pursuing a peace process (e.g., two‑state solution, Abraham Accords–style initiatives) rather than abandoning them.

“I think this is going to renew people's commitment to peace in the region. And I know many, many of the countries over there are really aghast at what happened, and they've been working really hard to try to normalize relations there and create peace and prosperity and commerce... I do think this will Maybe the good people of the world will recommit to trying to resolve this issue and create peace in the region.” View on YouTube

Eliminating Hamas and its influence (rooting it out from Gaza and the broader Palestinian territories) will be a very long-term effort that will take multiple decades, rather than years.

“It's going to take decades. It's going to take decades.” View on YouTube

The United States will be in a technical recession in Q2 2022, meaning real GDP growth for that quarter will be negative following a negative Q1 2022, producing two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth.

“Let's be honest, we're in a recession right now. This is a second quarter.” View on YouTube

The Democratic Party will sweep the 2026 midterm elections and go on to win the 2028 presidential election, largely as fallout from the Iran war and related missteps.

“the chances of the Democrats sweeping now is up to 45%. This just happened. The Democrats are going to sweep, then they're going to win in 2028.” View on YouTube

If society does not recognize drugs like fentanyl as a distinct "super drug" class and implement substantially different, stricter policies to address them, the associated social problems (addiction, overdoses, visible street drug use) will continue to worsen over time from the 2023 baseline.

“These are super drugs until people realize, like, these are a different class of drugs and they start treating them as such. It's going to just get worse. There's no path.” View on YouTube

Generative AI services like ChatGPT will ultimately be required—via legal or market pressure—to provide citations/links to their data sources and obtain permission from data owners in order to operate at scale.

“So ChatGPT and all these services must use citations of where they got the original work. They must link to them and they must get permission. That's where this is all going to shake out.” View on YouTube

Within the next few years, "prompt engineer" will emerge as a recognized job title and valued professional skill, with top practitioners seen as 10–20x more productive than average knowledge workers when using AI tools.

“Just building on this conversation, I just realized, like a great prompt engineer is going to become a title and an actual skill, the ability to interface with these... AIS... That person is going to be 10 or 20 times more valuable. They could be the proverbial ten x engineer in the future of as as in a company.” View on YouTube

Within approximately 3–5 years (by around 2026–2028), advances in AI and automation will make it feasible to operate a large software company like Twitter with roughly 98% fewer employees than its pre-layoff staffing level.

“We could be sitting here in three or 4 or 5 years, and instead of running a company like Twitter with 80% less people, maybe you could run it with 98% less people.” View on YouTube

Trump will take populist action to raise the federal minimum wage, potentially by $1-2 per year over the next three years, as a move to address affordability concerns.

“What if Trump decides he's going to raise the minimum wage?... What if Trump said we're going to add a dollar to it or $2 to it over each year of the next three?” View on YouTube

Republicans will lose the 2026 midterm elections if current conditions (unaddressed affordability concerns) persist.

“I think it's a possibility and I think they're going to lose the midterms as it stands right now.” View on YouTube

Stanley Druckenmiller predicts: (1) A major U.S. financial crisis will occur sometime in the 2025–2035 period, driven by entitlement costs as baby boomers age; (2) By roughly 25 years from 2023 (i.e., by around 2048), spending on seniors will reach about 60% of all U.S. tax revenues; (3) Combined U.S. federal spending on Social Security plus Medicare and Medicaid will rise from about 12% of GDP in 2023 to about 24% of GDP by around 2048.

“Stanley Druckenmiller gave a speech at USC... and he expressed concern about the financial crisis that occur could occur in the 2025 to 2035 period due to the baby boomers turning 65 and the impact on entitlements. He predicted that in 25 years, spending on seniors will grow to 60% of all taxes... And it's predicting here that those combined will go from what looks like 12% today, up to 24% of GDP.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump will win the next U.S. presidential election following this May 2023 town hall, i.e., he will be elected president in the 2024 U.S. election.

“And then I got the sense that CNN's management wants this. This is like a ratings bonanza for them, and I think they secretly want him... And then I thought, oh, he's going to get elected.” View on YouTube

By sometime in 2025, AI tools will reach a tipping point in adoption that enables significant labor arbitrage, with many organizations using AI so that one worker can effectively perform the work of multiple employees or replace substantial portions of lower-skilled knowledge work.

“I'm in the bullish camp with you. I think it's being overbuilt. Sure. But I think we're going to see a tipping point next year where a lot of labor arbitrage occurs.” View on YouTube

Humanoid and similar advanced robots such as Tesla Optimus will be commercially available at roughly US$20,000 per unit (order-of-magnitude) in the foreseeable near term as these platforms mature.

“And I'm really interested in robotics now, too. I think there's going to be some incredible gains with Optimus and some of the other robots that are occurring, and those things are only going to cost 20 grand.” View on YouTube

Within ten days of this episode’s release date (by around July 22, 2024), a whistleblower from President Biden’s inner circle (e.g., medical staff, close aides, or senior White House personnel) will publicly come forward with evidence alleging a cover‑up of Biden’s cognitive decline.

“I've got it. A whistleblower will emerge in the next ten days.” View on YouTube

If Joe Biden remains the Democratic nominee in 2024, Donald Trump will defeat him in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and in response to Biden’s weakness Democrats will organize a rapid, condensed primary process (“speed run”) to try to replace or re‑legitimize their nominee.

“And that's why Trump will beat Biden, and that's why they're going to do the speed run.” View on YouTube

By August 19, 2024, Democrats will have initiated a fast, highly compressed primary or selection process (“speedrun primary” or similar) to choose or ratify a new presidential nominee, and within July 2024 a whistleblower related to Biden’s cognitive state will have come forward publicly.

“Speedrun coming whistleblower, August 19th speedrun and the whistleblower. Look for it this month.” View on YouTube

Approximately half of Jason Calacanis’s top 10–20 close friends in his ‘friend list’ will choose to join or publicly support Elon Musk’s American Party if it is formed.

“Out of those, 50% will join Elon's party.”

A new episode of the All In podcast will be released approximately one week after this episode (around April 18, 2025).

“Another exceptional episode of the All In podcast. We'll see you all next week.” View on YouTube

By the end of November 2025, the Trump administration and China will announce a formal ‘China deal’ that includes some new arrangement or statement affecting the Taiwan issue (e.g., an updated or clarified form of strategic ambiguity).

“well, and not to mention we're probably going to have at least the rumors are that there could be a China deal coming up at the end of this month or into next month. And if we could resolve the issues with Taiwan, even something like strategic ambiguity.” View on YouTube

Prediction market Polymarket is implying that by October 31, 2025, 100% of the remaining Israeli hostages from the Gaza conflict will have been released and returned alive.

“Polymarket showing a 90% chance, 90% chance that all Israeli hostages will be returned by the end of the month, which would be just tremendous.” View on YouTube

If the Trump administration continues its then-current approach to violent ICE raids and National Guard deployments through the midterm election cycle, Democrats will win the midterm elections by a large margin (a ‘shellacking’ of Republicans) in terms of seats gained in Congress and overall popular vote.

“because what's at stake is the midterms. The Democrats are going to shellac the Republicans in the midterms if this continues.” View on YouTube

For the current Trump term’s annual deportations (on the order of 300,000–400,000 removals per year), approximately one-third of those deported in the upcoming stats releases will be individuals who self-reported/self-deported rather than being forcibly detained in raids.

“Yet I think we'll see that in the statistics that of the 3 or 400,000 people we wind up deporting, probably a third of them are going to be people who self-reported.” View on YouTube

Polymarket will become legally available for real‑money trading by users in the United States sometime during calendar year 2025.

“It looks like Polymarket will be launched in the US imminently. There's actually a Polymarket for Polymarket being available in the US for trades... 98% chance now that Polymarket will go live in the US in 2025.” View on YouTube

Open-source language models will eventually win out, capturing roughly 90% of token usage and undercutting the entire frontier/closed-model space.

“these I believe open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source” View on YouTube

Many tech companies have hit peak employment for their current business lines; while new jobs will be created elsewhere, existing roles will continue to shrink as companies do more with less headcount.

“I think for a lot of these tech companies, we've hit peak employment. We're going to create a tremendous number of new jobs, but for the existing jobs, these companies are all realizing they can do more with less.” View on YouTube

Between now and the end of 2026, the All-In team will host additional 200–500 person live events similar to the Miami F1 event, including at least one tied to another major sporting event such as F1 Austin, F1 Las Vegas, the Super Bowl, or the NBA Finals.

“Wonderful event. We're going to do it again. We're going to run it back, I think for maybe F1, Austin Vegas and we're going to and maybe Vegas. Who knows, maybe the Super Bowl, maybe NBA finals. We're going to do some more of these 200 to 500 person events.” View on YouTube

The fourth All-In Summit will take place as an in-person event in Los Angeles on September 7–9, 2025.

“Once I remind people that September 7th, eighth and ninth will be in Los Angeles. If you want to come hang with us like we did in F1 for the All In Summit the fourth year.” View on YouTube

Within the next 1–2 years (by mid-2027), Google/Alphabet will undertake significant headcount reductions and implement a broad return-to-office mandate, framed as part of a more serious corporate push to respond to AI competition.

“I think they're going to cut a large number of employees, get people to return back to office and take this a little more seriously on a corporate level, because you got that sense from Sergey, who's in the office every day.” View on YouTube

From roughly 2021 through 2031, California will experience a prolonged, material decline (a 'decade long slide') in conditions important enough that someone planning where to live and work would reasonably view the state as deteriorating over that period.

“I think California's my position right now is California is going to be on a decade long slide, and I'm working for ten more years.” View on YouTube

Because of low vaccination rates (around 33% as of mid‑2021), COVID‑19—particularly the Delta variant—will spread extensively in Mississippi and Alabama, causing a large wave of infections and disproportionately high mortality among older residents in those states in the following months.

“Mississippi and Alabama, 33%. Come on. Get your act together. What is it? It's going to whip through those places, and you're all gonna die. You're gonna kill your grandparents.” View on YouTube

Apple will become the dominant vendor in the high-end VR/AR headset category created around devices like Vision Pro, effectively capturing the majority of the market versus competitors such as Meta and others over the coming years.

“I think this is gonna they're gonna run the table on this.” View on YouTube

In response to mounting losses in US commercial real estate (particularly office) that threaten creditors and investors, the US Treasury under Janet Yellen (or equivalent federal authorities if she is no longer in office) will ultimately implement a bailout or support mechanism that protects the main creditors/investors exposed to these real‑estate debts, while avoiding an explicit direct bailout of the banks themselves.

“Yeah, I mean Janet Yellen's just going to bail these folks out. I mean, she won't bail out the banks themselves, but she'll bail out the creditors. Obviously the people holding the bag, they'll get bailed.” View on YouTube

Within a few years after losing the default-search TAC deal with Google as a result of this antitrust case, Apple will acquire an existing search engine company (e.g., DuckDuckGo, Brave, or similar) and operate its own first‑party search engine, using it to significantly expand Apple’s own advertising network.

“My prediction is Apple buys a search engine and they go it alone and expand their advertising network like Amazon, Uber and other companies have.” View on YouTube

The U.S. Department of Justice will indict Hunter Biden on federal gun charges in September 2023.

“Justice Department is believed to indict Hunter on gun charges this month.”

Neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump will ultimately make it to the effective “starting line” of the 2024 general election campaign (i.e., at least one of them will not be an active, official major-party nominee running in the general election).

“I don't know that Biden makes it to the starting line, nor do I think Trump makes it to the starting line. And so that changes everything.”

The 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome will be determined primarily by moderate voters and by women voters who are upset about the overturning of Roe v. Wade; these two blocs will play a significant role in deciding the result.

“I think the election will be once again determined by moderates. And I think women who are still very much upset about the Roe v Wade issue. And I think those two things are going to play a significant role.”

The All-In Podcast will not record a regular episode the week of the 2023 All-In Summit; instead, about 20 guest episodes recorded at the summit will be released on X (Twitter) and YouTube at a cadence of roughly one episode every one to two days, resulting in roughly 20 days of consecutive content releases after the summit.

“next week is the All In summit and we're not going to tape next week. So you get a week off from the pod while we, uh, bank, I think like 20 amazing, amazing guests... Freiburg will be releasing the episodes on Twitter and YouTube... I think you're going to drop them every day or every two days. Freiburg something in that sort of pace. So you got 20 days of content coming at you”

Tim Walz (referred to jokingly as Tim Wallace) will rapidly fade from national prominence after the 2024 election, becoming even more obscure in public memory than Tim Kaine, and Saturday Night Live will run recurring sketches whose central joke is how forgettable he is.

“You just enjoy that name. Tim Wallace while you can because you're never going to hear about that guy again. He's going to be more forgettable than Tim Kaine. They're going to be doing SNL skits on how forgettable he is.” View on YouTube

Following the 2024 election defeat, the Democratic Party will continue and intensify a strategic shift toward the political center in its messaging and policy positions over the coming election cycles.

“They started that process. They knew that going into this election and they started moving to the center. It was laughable in some cases... So of course they're going to.” View on YouTube

In the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election and Trump’s victory, there will not be Capitol-style riots or similar large-scale violent protests involving mobs attacking police officers over the election result.

“You know, I think the thing we have to do now is come together as a country. He's the president. It's great that it was not a debatable election, and we're not going to have riots at the Capitol and people beating up police officers.” View on YouTube

U.S. states that enact near-total abortion bans will experience noticeable out-migration of residents attributable in part to those bans, negatively affecting their ability to attract and retain workers.

“If you're a state and you ban abortion, who's going to want to live there? You're going to have a lot of people leaving.” View on YouTube

Spencer Pratt will win his Los Angeles election.

“And Spencer Pratt, if he wins this election, which I think he's going to in Los Angeles, the reason is what Brad said. Those ads are incredible.” View on YouTube

The IRS will aggressively investigate OpenAI’s nonprofit/for-profit structure (similar to its prior investigation of Mozilla), including potential tax issues arising from the IP transfer and employee equity/secondary sales.

“So I think the IRS is going to be on this like crazy based upon what happened to Mozilla, which was.” View on YouTube

San Francisco’s SoMa/downtown core will not be successfully revitalized as a dense office/commuter district in the foreseeable future; current plans by city leadership to revitalize it will fail.

“Downtown San Francisco is downtown mayor London breed had a press conference and she's been tweeting, hey, we have to revitalize, you know, Soma in San Francisco. That's never going to happen. That's off the table.” View on YouTube

Jeff Bezos will run for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle (i.e., will formally declare a presidential candidacy).

“Here's my thought. I think I'm going to state it right here. Bezos is going to run for president in 2024. This is why he retired. This is why he's giving money away.” View on YouTube

The 2024 U.S. presidential general election will be contested between Ron DeSantis and Jeff Bezos as the nominees of the two major parties (implying both will secure their respective party nominations).

“DeSantis versus Bezos. You heard it here first on.” View on YouTube

The All-In podcast will continue releasing episodes at least through episode 100 without ending or permanently disbanding before that point.

“We're back. The team is playing professional. Crisp ball again. Point guard is back. We'll see you on episode 87. We're going to make it to 100. I feel like we can make it to 100. Yes, we're gonna make it.” View on YouTube

Following the December 5, 2023 congressional hearing on campus antisemitism, at least one of the university presidents who testified (e.g., from Harvard, MIT, or Penn) will be removed from their position or forced to resign in the ensuing donor backlash, within the subsequent months.

“I think they're getting fired. I think the money, as you pointed out in your tweetstorm, is going to cause that. They're going to lose a lot of donations.” View on YouTube

The early‑stage startup funding vintage of roughly 2023 (the year in which he invested in ~100 companies) will, in hindsight, produce better venture returns than any other venture vintage during the lifetimes of the hosts (i.e., will be the best-performing VC vintage of their investing careers).

“So I think this is going to be the best vintage adventure in our lifetimes. That's my personal belief. I invested in 100 companies this year, but I could be wrong.” View on YouTube

Over the next several years as AI assistants become integrated into products like Google Gemini/Bard, the volume of user queries to AI systems (AI "questions asked") will increase by at least an order of magnitude (10x) and potentially up to 100x compared to the current volume of traditional web searches.

“I think the number of searches or the number of interactions, the number of queries, let's call them questions asked is going to go like ten, 20, 50, 100 x. I think people are going to be talking to their AIs all day long.” View on YouTube

AI-driven answer experiences (such as Gemini integrated into search, flights, shopping, etc.) will become a highly lucrative advertising business for Google, with ad clicks and targeting integrating effectively into AI responses, leading to substantial new ad revenue growth over the coming years.

“I think it could be a goldmine. And I think the click stream and the ad network is going to fit perfectly into it.” View on YouTube

All major narrow/vertical AI problems (like the ones discussed: poker, chess, Go, DALL·E-type image generation, GPT-3-type language, self-driving, etc.) will be effectively solved in a relatively short time period following October 2022 (on the scale of a few years, not decades).

“because obviously we're going to solve every vertical eye problem in short order.” View on YouTube

During Mamdani's term as mayor of New York City, he will fail to implement essentially all of his major campaign promises (e.g., rent freezes, free public transit, higher taxes on the rich as described), and New York City will experience severe governance and quality-of-life deterioration that can reasonably be characterized as "total, complete, utter chaos."

“Nothing he says he's going to do is going to happen. It's going to be total, complete, utter chaos.” View on YouTube

The winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election will be a candidate whose platform and political energy give roughly equal prominence to large-scale infrastructure/industrial investment (e.g., data centers or similar) and to aggressive expansion of affordable housing.

“I think the person who wins 2028 is the person who puts as much energy into, say, building data centers or ballrooms as puts into building affordable housing.” View on YouTube

Following the first 2024 Trump–Biden presidential debate (scheduled for late June 2024), Joe Biden will perform so poorly that the Democratic Party will replace him as its presidential nominee with Gavin Newsom during that same month, resulting in a Trump vs. Gavin Newsom general election matchup in 2024.

“This is why I think Biden's getting hot swapped this month. You heard it here first... Gavin is going to be running for president. It's going to be Trump and Gavin. They are hot swapping Biden after this first debate. Biden is going to get demolished by Trump in the debate. It's going to be elder abuse. He's getting wiped out and hot swapped. You heard it here first.” View on YouTube

In the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Democratic Party will lose to Donald Trump in a landslide (i.e., a very large margin in Electoral College and/or popular vote), given that they do not significantly change course or replace Biden.

“The Democrats need to realize they're out of sync with America... they're the diesel candidate party now, and they just have to flip this thinking they're going to get demolished. It is going to be a landslide at this point.” View on YouTube

Within 30 days of June 7, 2024, Donald Trump will publicly shift his stance and come out in support of electric vehicles (EVs), softening or reversing his prior anti‑EV rhetoric.

“I bet you next week or maybe in 30 days I'm making a prediction here. You bank the prediction in 30 days. Trump comes out magically in support of EVs.” View on YouTube

Within 30–60 days of June 7, 2024, assuming Joe Biden has not been replaced as the Democratic nominee, at least ten extremely high‑profile public figures (higher profile than Doug Leone, Chamath Palihapitiya, and David Sacks) will publicly endorse Donald Trump for president.

“I'd say in the next 30 to 60 days, you're going to see ten incredibly high profile people come out in support of Trump if Biden isn't swapped out. And when I say high profile, I have the inside line on this extremely high profile people. Not just Doug Leone, not just David Sax. And it is going to be about ten high profile people who are much higher profile respectfully than Chamath and Sacks and Doug Leone.” View on YouTube

The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) initiative backed by BlackRock and Citadel will file SEC registration documents sometime in 2024, begin facilitating stock trades in 2025, and host its first new company listing in 2026.

“So here's the plan timeline file an SEC registration docs later this year. Start facilitating trades next year. Host the first new listing in 2026.” View on YouTube

Around 24 months after this September 6, 2024 episode (i.e., roughly by September 2026), Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya will get arrested in connection with celebrating Chamath’s 50th birthday.

“I've already called dibs on chairing your 50th, so we will, uh, be certainly getting arrested in 24 months.” View on YouTube

Jason predicts the following sequence for Donald Trump: (1) In 2023 he will go on a GLP-1 drug such as Ozempic and lose roughly 40–50 pounds; (2) he will be criminally indicted by Attorney General Merrick Garland (i.e., by the U.S. Department of Justice) before the 2024 election; (3) despite that, he will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination; and (4) there will ultimately be a settlement in which Trump agrees not to run in exchange for a broad ‘Richard Nixon style’ pardon covering his legal exposure.

“I have a prediction for Trump. I think he's going to lose £50 on the Ozempic… I think he is going to be indicted by Garland… then he's going to win the nomination in 24… I think we're going to have a settlement. I think he's going to agree to not run and get the pardon.” View on YouTube

Laid-off tech workers in 2023 who form small founding teams (2–4 builders such as developers and product managers) and start companies will, as a cohort, produce a significant wave of successful startups over the ensuing years, making these founders major long-term business winners from the 2022–2023 tech layoffs.

“I think laid off tech workers who, uh, get together in groups of two, 3 or 4… and start companies together are going to become extremely successful… I think the startup space is… going to be the true big winners.” View on YouTube

In 2023, as unemployment remains ‘sticky’ at elevated levels, gig‑economy and marketplace platforms such as DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber, and Etsy will benefit from increased supply (more workers/hosts/sellers), improving their business performance.

“I think the, uh doordash's. Airbnb's, Uber's Etsy's of the world who need entrepreneurs, they need workers, they need supply… as unemployment becomes, uh, let's call it what it is sticky. You're going to see a lot more people participating in gig platforms… So I think they will be huge beneficiaries.” View on YouTube

Given Tesla’s then‑depressed stock price (early 2023), it is financially feasible that Apple could attempt a takeover of Tesla—payable largely in cash—or, alternatively, Apple could more easily acquire a large traditional automaker such as BMW or Volvo in the medium term.

“The Ms.. China trade and that relationship sure… but this one is really good… with Tesla, with this depressed stock price, Apple could make a run at Tesla. They could almost buy it with cash, let alone BMW, Volvo, one of those brands they could buy easily.” View on YouTube

Amazon will develop health as its ‘fourth pillar’ business beyond marketplace, Prime, and AWS by making additional health- and wellness-related acquisitions in the near term (starting 2023), potentially including companies such as Ro (Roman), Hims, Peloton, and/or Whoop.

“I think the fourth is going to be this continuation of following the health stream… I think they're going to buy Roman Hims. They're going to buy peloton. They could buy a whoop, and they're going to go all in on health.” View on YouTube

Under escalating bipartisan U.S. political pressure during the 2023–2024 election cycle, TikTok’s Chinese owners (ByteDance and related entities) will be forced to divest their U.S. TikTok operations—likely via an IPO or sale—so that Chinese ownership is largely or entirely removed from TikTok’s U.S. business.

“My runner up is TikTok is going to divest under duress. I think that it's going to have to go public. And the Chinese are going to divest their interest in it and just take their chips, because they're going to be faced with the existential threat… there will be unanimous support from Democrats and Republicans to get TikTok out of the US. Therefore, they divest.” View on YouTube

Over the coming years starting from 2023, the United States will maintain or increase its relative global strength (“American exceptionalism”), while rival authoritarian blocs led by Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia will fail to create a viable alternative reserve currency or significantly shift the global currency order due to internal conflicts and self‑sabotage.

“I believe American exceptionalism continues to soar as Russia, China, Saudi Arabia to a lesser extent continue to self-sabotage themselves... I believe, are going to stab each other in the back before they change the world or move the currency.” View on YouTube

In 2023, early‑stage private technology investing (seed through Series A) will outperform other major asset classes on a returns basis.

“I believe it's the best performing asset class of 2023.” View on YouTube

In 2023, energy equities as an asset class will underperform most other major asset classes, making energy one of the worst‑performing asset categories.

“Worst performing asset I went with energy... So it could be overheated. So I went with energy.” View on YouTube

Consumer credit defaults in the U.S. will rise meaningfully during 2023.

“Defaults are coming.” View on YouTube

In 2023, a notable trend of personal and household austerity (belt‑tightening and reduced discretionary spending) will emerge among consumers.

“austerity is my anticipated trend of 2023.” View on YouTube

Within the coming years following 2023, OpenAI (or similar large‑scale generative AI providers) will face major, potentially existential litigation over use of copyrighted training data—on a scale that could severely threaten the business (“sued into oblivion”).

“Whoever they base this on, they're going to get sued into oblivion. I predict sued into oblivion.” View on YouTube

Jason Calacanis and David Sacks will launch a recurring "post show" for the All-In podcast on the Callin platform, occurring roughly two days after regular All-In episodes, to interact with fans in a smaller group format.

“So we're thinking, David and I of doing like a post show after all in like two days after just to talk to the fans and do like a little private group thing” View on YouTube

Elizabeth Holmes will be convicted and sent to jail following her Theranos-related trial that begins in August 2021.

“Clearly a giant scam and fraud. And she's gonna go to jail too. By the way, she's going on trial this month. August. I believe she'll be on trial.” View on YouTube

Tether will ultimately be exposed as a massive fraud on the order of roughly its full then-outstanding value (around $60 billion).

“my my fraud of the moment, the one that's making my spidey sense go crazy, is tether. Um, these these guys are. I mean, this feels like it is going to be a 60 billion Billion.” View on YouTube

Disney’s streaming business will catch up to Netflix and eventually surpass and dominate Netflix in the streaming market.

“They're going to they're going to catch up to Netflix and then they're going to roll Netflix. They're going to roll right over Netflix.” View on YouTube

If the roughly $37 trillion federal debt is financed at 5-6% interest rates, annual interest expense will rise by an incremental $1 trillion and will likely become about $2 trillion per year.

“If the debt gets financed at five, six% which is kind of where interest rates are trending, we're talking about an incremental trillion dollars a year of incest expense. Interest expense will probably become two trillion a year, right?” View on YouTube

Mainstream media outlets will oppose Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and systematically block or hinder his exposure across all major channels during his presidential campaign.

“The media is going to block this guy at every angle,”

Long-form podcast interviews will materially increase voter interest in and consideration of candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the 2024 election cycle, to the point where such appearances become an important driver of their public support relative to traditional media exposure.

“It could be the way the candidates get their message out, because if after two hours of this, you don't want to learn more about him or you're not going to consider him more fully, I think it's impossible because he's so well spoken.”

For future episodes of the All-In podcast: Nikki Haley will appear as a guest; Donald Trump will also agree to appear as a guest; Joe Biden will not appear as a guest.

“So Nikki Haley is in, and then Trump will do it. And then Biden will not.”

In the 12 months following this August 2022 episode, the number of U.S. job openings (around 10–11 million at the time) will decline by roughly 300,000–400,000 per month, reaching approximately 5–6 million job openings by around August 2023.

“jobs and we've talked about this every month as we watch it, uh, finally dipped under 11 million, as Sachs predicted. You know, we're going to shed 3 or 400,000 jobs, it seems, every month, uh, which should take this, uh, you know, ten, 11 million number over the next year, down to maybe 5 or 6” View on YouTube

During the week following this April 5, 2024 episode, John (the new CEO) will publicly announce the details (dates, location, etc.) of the third All-In Summit to be held in 2024.

“as John's first, first duty, he is going to next week announce the details of the All in Summit 2020 for our third edition.” View on YouTube

The All-In Podcast will (1) host a special '1 million subscriber party' once their YouTube channel reaches 1,000,000 subscribers, and (2) conduct a live Q&A episode with all four hosts when the channel’s subscriber count increases from 486,000 to approximately 500,000 (an additional 14,000 subscribers).

“we're going to have a 1 million subscriber party. If you want to be part of that 1 million subscriber party, you can increase your chances... we are at 486,000. When we add 14,000 more, we're going to do a live Q&A with all the besties” View on YouTube

Within roughly one week of this April 5, 2024 episode, Donald Trump will receive approximately 36 million additional shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (ticker DJT), with a then-market value of nearly $2 billion.

“Trump owns 60%, and he stands to receive an amount of 36 million additional shares in the coming week, worth almost 2 billion.” View on YouTube

By roughly 7 years from April 2024 (around 2031), general‑purpose domestic robots costing about $1,000 per month will be owned by essentially every middle‑class household in the United States.

“I disagree. So yeah I think every human's going to have one of these. I think every household in America, every middle class household in America will have one of these thousand dollar a month robots in seven years.” View on YouTube

The Big Beautiful Bill will pass the House and be signed into law by President Trump by July 4, 2025.

“so it's got to pass the House again before Trump can sign it into law. Lots of drama. Trump set the deadline for July 4th, which is Friday. When you're listening to this and it will in all likelihood get there… So it looks like it's pretty much a lock.” View on YouTube

At the September 2025 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve will not increase the federal funds rate; the outcome will be either a cut or no change relative to the prior target range.

“According to Polymarket, 52% chance of a rate cut in September. 46% chance of no change. So we're definitely not getting an increase, according to the sharp money.” View on YouTube

In the near future, the 'fake Chamath' Twitter account will become significantly more popular than it was prior to this episode.

“It's gonna get pretty popular.”

Information about the Israel–Hamas/Gaza war (e.g., casualty numbers, authenticity of videos, and on-the-ground facts) will remain highly unclear and contested for an extended period after this May 2024 conversation, with no quick resolution to the factual disputes in the near term.

“The fog of war is going to be thick for a while here, folks, and it's going to take us a while.”

Over the coming years, advances and wider use of AI-generated content will increase the prevalence and believability of misinformation and disinformation, making it progressively more difficult for the public to determine what is true from media sources.

“It's going to get worse with AI. It's going to be harder and harder to find the truth.”

The roughly 500 generative‑AI startups existing at the time of this discussion will grow to around 5,000 startups (10x) in the near term (over the subsequent few years), but the majority will be culled relatively quickly via milestone‑based funding, leaving a much smaller surviving set.

“that 500 is going to go ten x, there'll be 5000 of these start ups, but it will quickly whittle down as people go through this milestone based funding system in Silicon Valley.” View on YouTube

Salesforce will continue to deploy significant capital to share repurchases, expanding its buyback activity toward a total authorized program of about $20 billion over the ensuing few years after this March 2023 earnings call.

“But the company bought back $2.3 billion worth of its stock. We're going to see more of that for sure. And they're going to be increasing its share buyback program to $20 billion going forward.” View on YouTube

Over the next 3 years, the cost of AI tokens will fall roughly 90% per year, making intelligence roughly a thousand times cheaper to access, with some model options becoming free or near-free.

“The cost of tokens, Freeberg, is going to go down 90% a year for the next 3 years. You're going to be able to buy a thousand times as many tokens that are more intelligent because you're going to have free options.” View on YouTube

Within 10 years, essentially no Amazon package sorting or package delivery will be performed by humans, as humanoid robots like Optimus take over those roles.

“What Optimus is going to do when Bezos and Andy Jassy unleash Optimus inside of the Amazon factories is... every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10 years.” View on YouTube

The US will experience a 'Cambrian explosion' of new startups driven by AI/robotics, while the primary US job-displacement impact will be concentrated among roughly 5-10 million driving-related jobs.

“I think we're going to see a Cambrian explosion in startups, which means we're going to be the ones who benefit from it... We're just going to see it here with drivers, and that's 5-10 million people.” View on YouTube

Trump will pivot away from the Iran conflict and wrap up the war extremely soon, driven by his plummeting net approval rating.

“Looking at this, I think we'll have Trump pivot extremely soon... Is that your prediction, Jal? think he's going to wrap this up? I mean, he's 100% going to wrap this up and I and and I can show why.” View on YouTube

Trump will remove the remaining underperforming staff (beyond the two/four already cleared out, in the group including Christi Noem, Cash Patel, Steven Miller, and Pam Bondi) and replace them with stronger leadership to turn the presidency around.

“Trump's going to need to clear house. He's cleared out two or four. I predict he'll clear out the other two and get great leadership in there and turn this presidency around” View on YouTube

Uber Technologies, Inc. stock price will rise and break above $88 per share at some point in the future (no explicit timeframe given).

“I mean, I'm going to be a tariff. Uber brakes 88. That's my number. 88 is the number. You're all fucked when that happens. And we're getting close.” View on YouTube

Jason predicts that the US dollar will remain the global reserve currency for the remainder of his and Friedberg’s lifetimes (i.e., no replacement as primary global reserve within several decades).

“Yeah, and I disagree. I think it will be will remain the global reserve for all lifetime. That's all. It's a fundamental difference.” View on YouTube

In the coming years, U.S. policy or industry standards will move toward restricting mainstream social media use to users roughly 15–16 years old and above, with underage users (around 12–15) only allowed on such platforms with explicit parental permission enforced via handset manufacturers and/or the social media services.

“These companies are going to have to say, well, if we lose the 12 to 15 year olds, is that better for society and better for our business? And we just all agree that social media should start at 15 or 16. And then the handset manufacturers and the and the social sites all have you have to get permission from your parents to use them, period. Full stop. And that's it. And that may be where this all winds up, I think.” View on YouTube

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the outcome of the national presidential result will not be altered or determined by voter or election fraud; any detected fraud will be too small in scale to change the Electoral College winner.

“And what's really important for Americans to understand is it is impossible right now, absolutely statistically impossible to swing the presidential election with fraud.” View on YouTube

Total turnout in the 2024 U.S. presidential election will be approximately 160 million votes cast nationwide (on the order of 160M, i.e., very close to that figure).

“158 million people voted in 2020. We'll have about 160 million this year if the estimates are correct.” View on YouTube

For the 2024 U.S. presidential election specifically, while some instances of cheating or voter fraud may occur, they will not be large enough in magnitude to change who wins the presidency in the Electoral College.

“But no, now they are giving receipts to people. So the gold standard is giving a receipt showing ID and having multiple weeks to do it. And so if anybody's taking anything away from this, there can be cheating, but it cannot swing the presidential election.” View on YouTube

Within the next several years, major community/content platforms such as Reddit and Stack Overflow will be acquired by larger companies ("taken out"), rather than remaining long‑term independent public companies.

“Reddit core, Stack Overflow. They're going to just get taken out. I think this is I think this is going to be the new normal” View on YouTube

Assuming AI customer-support systems improve their performance by roughly 10% per month, they will be able to handle about 98% of customer queries by the end of 2024; alternatively, if performance improves about 10% per year instead, they will reach roughly 98–99% of queries handled within about four years (by around 2028).

“If it's improving 10% a month, we're going to get to 98% of queries done this year. If it's doing 10% a year, okay, we're going to get to 99 or 98% of queries in four years.” View on YouTube

Following this early-December 2023 recording, there will soon be at least one additional significant development (an "epilogue") in the OpenAI/Sam Altman governance saga beyond Altman’s initial firing and reinstatement.

“I think the epilogue is about to drop”

Sam Altman will appear as a guest on a future episode of the All-In Podcast within a few weeks of this December 1, 2023 episode.

“Well Sam will be on the pod in the coming weeks. I think I've been texting with him, so I think if Sam.”

Over the remaining roughly 3.5 years of Trump's current term (from mid‑2025 through January 2029), the Trump administration’s primary policy focus will be on four areas: AI, crypto, immigration, and tariffs.

“Well, it's pretty clear, you know, this presidency, this term is going to be earmarked, I think, by four key initiatives AI, crypto, immigration and tariffs. I think that feels like what they're locking into as what's important for the next three and a half years.” View on YouTube

The major copyright/AI training lawsuits pending as of August 2025 (e.g., against OpenAI and similar companies) will reach settlements or final resolution within 1–2 years, i.e., by August 2027.

“there's some major lawsuits here. They're going to get settled in the next year or two.” View on YouTube

Content-licensing deals between AI companies and major publishers (like the cited New York Times deal) are at an early stage, and the dollar value of similar future deals will on average increase over time, not decrease, relative to this initial ~$20M/year level.

“I will tell you, I will take the other side of the bet. If we want to make a polymarket on this, I will guarantee that this will be the beginning of the deals, and the deals will go up from here.” View on YouTube

At the first Federal Reserve interest-rate cut following this discussion (post–Q2 2025), US financial markets (e.g., major equity indices and risk assets) will experience a sharp upward move (“rip”) immediately following the cut.

“now they're going to be in this defensive position of what if we cut it? And the market rips. To your point, you just said the market will rip the second they cut that.” View on YouTube

The U.S. economy is unlikely to experience two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth (i.e., an official recession) in the near term following this April 1, 2022 discussion (through at least early 2023).

“So these happen every ten years or so. Uh, so if we do have a recession and it it seems implausible to me that we would have negative growth for two quarters, so.” View on YouTube