Wed, 04 Nov 2020 10:06:21 +0000
New episodes of the TV show "High Stakes Poker" will be released on the PokerGO app on December 16, 2020.
“you can only watch these episodes of High Stakes Poker. A lot of players favorite show. You can only watch them on the Poker Go app. They're coming out December 16th.” View on YouTube
PokerGO did release new High Stakes Poker episodes in December 2020 as part of its regular content schedule; this was a routine programming announcement rather than a substantive forecast.
Donald Trump will ultimately win the state of North Carolina in the 2020 presidential election, and the Republican incumbent U.S. senator from North Carolina will also win re‑election in 2020.
“He has just taken the lead in North Carolina after trailing all night. We got about 88% of the vote in now. And I suspect he's home free, as is the Republican incumbent senator there.” View on YouTube
Donald Trump won North Carolina in the 2020 presidential election, and Republican incumbent Senator Thom Tillis won re-election over Cal Cunningham (by under 2 points, in one of the most expensive Senate races that cycle).
Donald Trump will win the state of Florida in the 2020 presidential election.
“NBC has still not called Florida for Trump, but there's really no path for Biden to win that state. Uh, so you can put that safely in the Trump column.” View on YouTube
Donald Trump won Florida in the 2020 presidential election, as this live call anticipated.
Donald Trump will win the state of Ohio in the 2020 presidential election.
“Ohio is currently showing Donald Trump with two point. Rounding it up 2.4 million votes to 2.2 million, slightly rounding up for Joe Biden 52% to 47% with 78% reporting. Does that mean we feel comfortable with Trump, uh, winning Ohio. ... Unless all of Cleveland is outstanding, I would say that's a Trump state. Yeah.” View on YouTube
Donald Trump won Ohio in the 2020 presidential election, consistent with the live vote-count trend described.
The 2020 U.S. presidential election results will not be determined early in the evening of November 3, 2020; instead, it will take late into the night (or longer) before the outcome becomes clear.
“we went from having an early night to now we're for sure in for a really late night here.” View on YouTube
The 2020 election was not called on election night; it took until Saturday, November 7, 2020 for major networks to project a winner.
If Donald Trump wins re‑election in 2020, he will do so via an Electoral College victory while losing the national popular vote (i.e., Joe Biden will receive more total votes nationwide than Donald Trump in 2020).
“We are looking once again at if Trump wins, it's because of the Electoral college like he is going to lose the popular vote.” View on YouTube
This was a conditional prediction ("if Trump wins...") whose premise never occurred, since Biden won the election; the conditional was never actually tested.
The 2020 U.S. presidential election will be very close rather than a landslide for either candidate.
“we were supposed to walk into a landslide. We're not, as you said, we're going to be in a nail biter.” View on YouTube
The 2020 election was close rather than a landslide: it came down to several swing states decided by tight margins, and the popular vote margin (~4.5 points) was far from a blowout.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) will run for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle.
“Isn't it going to be socialism?... you're going to have AOC running for president in four years.” View on YouTube
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez did not run for president in the 2024 election cycle; she remained a U.S. Representative and did not launch a presidential campaign.
Donald Trump will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
“I've increasingly think Trump is going to win.” View on YouTube
This was an in-the-moment election-night read that Trump was winning; Biden ultimately won the election.
C predicts that Donald Trump will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election being decided that night (Nov 3–4, 2020).
“I think Trump wins.” View on YouTube
Biden, not Trump, ultimately won the 2020 presidential election.
Donald Trump will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
“the lowest I've seen is 2.5 to 1. I think Trump wins.” View on YouTube
Betting-market odds that night favored Trump, but Biden ultimately won the election.
D predicts that Donald Trump will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election, aligning with betting-market odds on election night 2020.
“I'm gonna go with what the markets are saying, which is Trump.” View on YouTube
Markets briefly implied a Trump win that night, but Biden ultimately won the election.
B predicts that Donald Trump will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as implied by Treasury markets and S&P futures on election night 2020.
“the Treasury markets and the S&P futures are telling me that Donald Trump's going to win.” View on YouTube
Treasury and S&P futures moves that night were read as favoring Trump, but Biden ultimately won the election.
E predicts that Joe Biden will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election, despite live results and betting markets at roughly 7:45 p.m. PT on Nov 3, 2020.
“I still think the path is, um. Um, uh, I, um, I think it's Biden” View on YouTube
Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, as this contrarian in-the-moment call anticipated against the early results trend.
E predicts conditionally that if Joe Biden nets approximately 500,000 votes out of the remaining Philadelphia-area count in Pennsylvania, that margin will be sufficient for Biden to win the state of Pennsylvania in the 2020 election.
“Well then 500,000 would carry the state for Joe Biden.” View on YouTube
Biden ultimately won Pennsylvania once the Philadelphia-area mail-in vote was fully counted, matching the conditional logic laid out here.
E reiterates the prediction that Joe Biden will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election, basing this on an expected strongly pro-Biden mail-in vote from Philadelphia that will be counted after election night.
“I'm going to I'm going to stick with Biden here, because I think that, uh, that Philadelphia vote count is crucial.” View on YouTube
Biden won the 2020 election, and the Philadelphia mail-in vote was indeed decisive in delivering Pennsylvania to him.
G predicts that Joe Biden will win the 2020 U.S. nationwide popular vote by approximately 4–5 percentage points over Donald Trump.
“I think we can safely say that Biden is going to win the popular vote. And it might be by four points. Five points” View on YouTube
Biden won the national popular vote by approximately 4.5 percentage points, closely matching the 4-5 point estimate given here.
G predicts that if Donald Trump wins a second term in the 2020 election, he will fire Anthony Fauci and FBI Director Christopher Wray, and likely also Attorney General Bill Barr, early in that second term.
“Oh, I think you can count on it. And Fauci and Christopher Wray, the FBI director and on. And increasingly, maybe Bill Barr, too.” View on YouTube
This was a conditional prediction ("if Trump wins a second term...") whose premise never occurred, since Biden won; the conditional firings were never tested.
E predicts that on election night 2020 no final or reliable overall election result will be available because Pennsylvania—and specifically Philadelphia’s votes—will not be fully counted or called that night.
“any result that's called tonight, I think is going to be, uh, incomplete because they're not going to call Pennsylvania because they're not going to call Philly.” View on YouTube
No final, reliable overall result was available on election night; Pennsylvania and Philadelphia's vote counts remained outstanding for days afterward.
E predicts conditionally that if Joe Biden’s net margin out of Philadelphia exceeds roughly 350,000 votes, that margin will be sufficient for Biden to win Pennsylvania in the 2020 election.
“if there are in fact, three. No, I think that the exact math is about 350,000 votes that show up in Philadelphia, a gap of Above 350,000 votes that show up in Philly. Um, Biden will, uh, do what he needs to do.” View on YouTube
Biden's eventual Pennsylvania margin came primarily from a large net vote advantage out of Philadelphia and its suburbs, consistent with this threshold-based conditional call.
(Not a prediction; just a status report—omitted from scoring.)
“I'm seeing reports that it's down to Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.” View on YouTube
G predicts that the key states Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will not complete their vote counts on election night 2020; that each will take at least an additional day to count, that Arizona may take about three days, and that the overall presidential race outcome might not be known until the weekend following Election Day (Nov 7–8, 2020).
“Unfortunately, all four of those states are going to probably take at least a day. Arizona. Three days, I think, to count. … so settle in. It could be the weekend before we have a result.” View on YouTube
Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin all took additional days to finish counting; the race was ultimately called on Saturday, November 7, 2020, matching the "could be the weekend" call closely.
E predicts that in the days immediately following election night 2020, Americans will largely remain calm, with little violent or disruptive action, and will mostly sit tight and wait for officials to count votes and resolve the election.
“I think everybody's going to be tense. Jay I think I don't I don't think you're going to see a lot of action one way or the other. I think that people I think people in America are incredibly good people. I think that folks are just going to sit tight and hope that the folks whose job it is to do their job, do their job.” View on YouTube
The days immediately following the 2020 election were largely calm nationally, without widespread violent unrest, as vote counting proceeded.
A predicts that the week immediately following election night 2020 (approximately Nov 4–11, 2020) could see significant political violence in the United States.
“I think the next week could be incredibly violent.” View on YouTube
The week following the 2020 election (roughly Nov 4-11) was largely calm nationally, without the significant political violence predicted here; unrest of that scale did not materialize until the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot, well outside this timeframe.
E predicts conditionally that if there is still no clear election winner by late election night, then on the following trading day U.S. markets will shift to a modest risk-off posture (i.e., some decline or defensive move across risk assets).
“if we go to bed in another hour and a half, or if we finish this thing in another hour and there is no winner, a clear winner, I think markets will be back to sort of modestly risk off tomorrow.” View on YouTube
No clear winner had emerged by the next trading day, yet U.S. markets rallied sharply rather than turning risk-off, with major indices posting some of their best post-election-day gains in decades.
J predicts that over the coming years, the United States will experience the largest economic migration in its history, with substantial numbers of people and capital moving out of high-tax states like California, driven by the combination of remote work enabled by Covid-19 and anticipated state tax-policy changes.
“I think we're going to have the single largest migration of economic, uh, the single largest economic migration in the history of this country, the convergence of Covid, which allows people to work from anywhere. And the risk of changing tax policies in states like California is going to cause mass economic migration.” View on YouTube
There has been continued net migration from high-tax states like California to lower-tax states, and remote work did accelerate this trend, but whether it constitutes "the single largest economic migration in US history" is not a claim that can be cleanly verified against a specific benchmark.
D predicts that if Republicans retain control of the U.S. Senate and/or the presidency after the 2020 election, they will politically target Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey as the primary symbol of alleged tech censorship, likely via hearings, investigations, or public campaigns during the subsequent term.
“if the Republicans hold on to the Senate, um, and or the presidency, I think you're going to see Jack Dorsey become the poster child for this new censorship that they're going to target.” View on YouTube
The conditional premise (Republicans retaining the presidency and/or Senate) was not cleanly met: Republicans lost the presidency, and lost the Senate too once Georgia's runoffs flipped it to Democrats in January 2021. Twitter did face intense political scrutiny in this period (including banning Trump after January 6), but not from a Republican-controlled government targeting Dorsey as described.
G predicts that Republican Senator Susan Collins will win re-election in Maine in the 2020 Senate race, despite widespread expectations of a Democratic pickup.
“Susan Collins keeps her seat. That is the biggest that that is like the mega upset the Democrats were already counting.” View on YouTube
Susan Collins won re-election to her Maine Senate seat in 2020, defeating Sara Gideon despite polling that favored a Democratic pickup.
Conditional on Joe Biden winning the presidency by a very narrow electoral margin (on the order of ~2 electoral votes) and Republicans retaining control of the U.S. Senate in the 2020 election, the U.S. will experience a relatively calm four‑year period (2021–2025) of divided government in which partisan political tensions and national “temperature” decline, major new legislation is limited, and most people can largely “ignore Washington” for those four years.
“this scenario which I've we've called the soft landing, where let's say you had a Biden victory by two electoral votes. The Republicans hold on to the Senate… It could be a really good situation for the country for the next four years. You know, temperature would go down… I think we would get what we want, which is the ability to ignore Washington for four years.” View on YouTube
The specific conditional premise did not hold: Biden won by a much wider margin than "~2 electoral votes" (306-232), and Republicans did not retain the Senate once Georgia's January 2021 runoffs flipped both seats to Democrats, giving Democrats an evenly-split Senate with the VP tiebreak.
U.S. (and global) wealth inequality will continue to worsen in the coming years after 2020; the concentration of wealth will increase rather than decrease over time.
“the exacerbation of the wealth disparity is going to increase, not decrease. We see it every day out here.” View on YouTube
U.S. wealth inequality broadly worsened in the years after 2020, with pandemic-era asset price gains (stocks, real estate) concentrated disproportionately among wealthier households.
The voter fears and grievances that Donald Trump tapped into in 2016–2020 will persist beyond the 2020 election, and future Republican figures such as Mike Pence will be able to run viable national campaigns by appealing to those same fears.
“Mike pence, right, has his roadmap… for, you know, how to win the election. Indiana governor. Right. Who's going to tap into the same fears that Trump tapped into. I mean, these fears aren't going away” View on YouTube
Mike Pence specifically did not run a viable national campaign on Trump-style grievance politics; he ran in the 2024 Republican primary and dropped out early with minimal support. However, the broader claim that Trump-era voter grievances would persist and be exploited by other Republican figures (including Trump himself in 2024) did hold up.
In a future U.S. election cycle after 2020, a relatively young, pragmatic Democrat from the geographic middle of the country (e.g., someone like Pete Buttigieg, a governor or mayor) will emerge as a leading presidential candidate running on a centrist platform, and that profile will be electorally successful at the national level.
“I think you're going to have the emergence of a middle of the country, governor, middle of the country, mayor. Somebody like Pete, um, who's going to run, you know, on a smart, younger, pragmatic Democratic ticket. Um, I think that's a winning formula.” View on YouTube
No young, pragmatic, centrist Democrat in the Pete Buttigieg mold has emerged as an electorally successful national presidential candidate as of 2026; Buttigieg himself became Transportation Secretary rather than winning higher office, and the 2024 Democratic ticket (Harris/Biden) did not fit this profile and lost the general election.
Within 3–4 days after this Election Night discussion on November 3–4, 2020, senior figures in the Democratic Party leadership will contact Chamath (the speaker "E") to solicit his financial and/or political support.
“I suspect that in the next 3 or 4 days I'm going to get a call from the Democratic leadership figuring out how much they can count on me.” View on YouTube
This is a personal, unverifiable claim about private outreach from Democratic Party leadership to Chamath; there is no public record to confirm or deny it either way.
In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the state of Michigan will be won by Donald Trump, and the overall outcome of the election will ultimately hinge on the result in Pennsylvania, particularly the suburbs around Philadelphia.
“Michigan's going to go to Trump. This is going to come down to Pennsylvania.” View on YouTube
Michigan was won by Joe Biden, not Donald Trump, by roughly 3 points; the claim that Pennsylvania would be decisive was directionally right, but the Michigan call was incorrect.
Proposition 22 will be approved by California voters on Election Night 2020, and in the subsequent years it will serve as a model framework for gig‑work classification and benefits that New York and multiple other U.S. states adopt or closely emulate.
“you're going to see if prop 22 passes, which I think it will tonight. It's going to be the architecture that New York and many other states follow.” View on YouTube
California's Proposition 22 did pass on election night 2020 with about 58% support, but it did not become the clean national model predicted: New York never adopted a Prop-22-style framework, and Prop 22 itself was later challenged in California courts (ruled partially unconstitutional in 2021, later reinstated by the California Supreme Court in 2024) rather than spreading smoothly elsewhere.
Over the coming years after 2020, U.S. politics will increasingly feature conflict between Democratic Party–dominated state governments and large companies, leading to a sustained trend of individuals and businesses relocating from heavily Democratic states to Republican‑run states that offer lower taxes and a more laissez‑faire regulatory environment.
“it seems like we're setting up for Democrats versus companies and people moving to Republican states to have low taxes and to be left alone.” View on YouTube
In the years following 2020, a clear trend emerged of companies (e.g., Tesla, Oracle, HP) and individuals relocating from high-tax Democratic-leaning states like California to lower-tax Republican-leaning states like Texas and Florida.
Conditional on California’s Proposition 22 passing in 2020, a coalition of major gig‑economy companies (e.g., DoorDash, Instacart, Uber, Lyft) will subsequently organize to actively promote the Prop‑22-style independent‑contractor‑plus‑benefits framework as a national model for gig and independent workers across the United States.
“if we're fortunate enough for prop 22 to pass, I hear we I hope we see a coalition among these companies come together and really promote this as a national architecture for a third way for independent contractors, free agents across the country” View on YouTube
Gig-economy companies did continue pushing Prop-22-style independent-contractor frameworks in other states after 2020, but with mixed and often unsuccessful results, rather than the clean, coordinated national rollout predicted.
As a result of the 2020 elections, the U.S. Senate will remain under Republican control, with Republicans holding approximately a 51–49 seat majority, driven in part by Republican wins in Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina.
“the Senate is almost certain to go Republican at this point with Iowa, Maine and North Carolina going Republican… you're going to have 51‑49 to Republicans in the Senate.” View on YouTube
Republicans initially appeared to hold a narrow Senate edge on election night, but Georgia's two Senate seats both flipped to Democrats in the January 2021 runoffs, giving Democrats an evenly split 50-50 Senate with Vice President Harris as the tiebreaker, not a 51-49 Republican majority.
On the trading day immediately following Election Day 2020 (i.e., the U.S. stock market session on November 4, 2020), broad U.S. equity indices (e.g., Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500) will close higher than they did on Election Day, regardless of whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden appears to be the likely winner that night.
“it appears at this point that the market's going to be up tomorrow almost either way.” View on YouTube
U.S. equity markets rallied sharply on November 4, 2020, the trading day immediately after election day, with major indices posting strong gains regardless of the still-unresolved outcome.
The determination of the winner of the 2020 U.S. presidential election will hinge primarily on the results in Pennsylvania and Michigan; the vote counting in those states will take multiple days beyond Election Night to complete, and the outcome is likely to be contested in court.
“This is going to come down to Pennsylvania and Michigan, and it's going to take days to do those counts, and we're probably going to end up in the courts.” View on YouTube
The election outcome did hinge substantially on Pennsylvania, vote counting there took multiple days, and numerous post-election lawsuits followed, largely as described.
If Donald Trump were to declare victory on election night 2020 while the outcome was still uncertain, equity markets (e.g., futures) would react with panic and sell off sharply shortly thereafter.
“If we avoid it, we're going to fade a really big out here, Um, which is Trump declares victory right now. I think that is the disaster scenario... if Trump comes out and says, we won. We're done. Let's move on. It's going to be panic” View on YouTube
Trump did prematurely claim victory that night/the next morning, but markets did not react with a sell-off or panic; U.S. equities rallied strongly in the days that followed.
As of the moment of speaking (late on election night, Nov 3–4, 2020), the presidential race outcome is approximately a 50/50 coin flip, with the conditional structure that Donald Trump must ultimately carry Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all three to win the presidency, while Joe Biden will win the presidency if he carries at least one of those three states, assuming current calls in Wisconsin and Arizona hold.
“I think this thing is back to a coin flip. I mean, Trump now has to win Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania in order to win the presidency. If Biden wins any one of those three states, he wins.” View on YouTube
The structural logic held: Trump needed to win all three of Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to win the presidency and ultimately won none of them, while Biden's win in any one of them (he won all three) delivered the presidency, as predicted.
If Joe Biden matches Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margin in Ann Arbor and Detroit, the remaining vote from those areas will provide roughly 420,000 additional Biden votes against a then-current Trump lead of about 300,000, resulting in Biden ultimately winning the state of Michigan in the 2020 election.
“If Biden wins Ann Arbor and Detroit by the same percentage as 2016. That's 420,000 Biden incremental votes versus the 300,000 current Trump lead. Let's just apply the Clinton math and he wins Michigan.” View on YouTube
Biden won Michigan comfortably, by roughly 154,000 votes (about 2.8 points), consistent with the Ann Arbor/Detroit turnout math described here.
Joe Biden will ultimately carry the state of Pennsylvania in the 2020 presidential election once all votes are counted, even though the full count will take additional time.
“We're feeling real good about Wisconsin and Michigan. And by the way it's going to take time to count the votes. We're going to win Pennsylvania.” View on YouTube
Biden ultimately won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, exactly as predicted here.
Joe Biden will ultimately win the overall 2020 United States presidential election.
“Guys, we're going to win this.” View on YouTube
Joe Biden won the overall 2020 presidential election.
The final outcome of the 2020 U.S. election will be a Biden presidency (Joe Biden will become president).
“I'm changing my prediction to scenario three. Biden presidency.” View on YouTube
Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, as predicted.
Jason predicts that Joe Biden will ultimately win the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
“I'm still sticking with Biden.” View on YouTube
Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, as predicted.
E predictor (likely Chamath/Friedberg context-dependent, but labeled E) maintains the prediction that Joe Biden will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
“I'm still sticking with Biden.” View on YouTube
Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, as predicted.
As of that moment on election night, David predicts: (1) the probability of a Biden victory is roughly 51% vs. 49% for Trump; (2) the resolution of the election result will likely take at least three more days; (3) there will probably be multiple court cases; (4) it is possible that the winner will remain unknown until sometime in December 2020; and (5) resolving the election result may require another U.S. Supreme Court case.
“So, I mean, the reality is, I think this thing I mean, I think it's probably at the end of the day, 51 49 in favor of Biden right now, but we probably have at least three more days and maybe a bunch of court cases. Yeah. This could this could be really bad. I mean, we may not know who the winner is till December, and this may require another Supreme Court case.” View on YouTube
Mixed accuracy: the multi-day delay and multiple court cases both happened, but the winner was actually known by November 7 (not December), and no Supreme Court case ever ruled on the election's merits (Texas v. Pennsylvania was dismissed for lack of standing).
The winner of the 2020 U.S. presidential election will be known within one week of election night, but the intervening days will be tense and uncertain (“white knuckle”).
“I think we'll know within a week who won. But it's going to be a it's going to be a white knuckle kind of week.” View on YouTube
The winner was projected within a week of election night, on Saturday, November 7, 2020, matching this prediction closely.
The winner of the 2020 U.S. presidential election will be known by the end of the day following election night (i.e., on November 4, 2020).
“We did you know I think we're going to know tomorrow.” View on YouTube
The winner was not known the day after election night; it took until Saturday, November 7, 2020, four days later.
The winner of the 2020 U.S. presidential election will be determined and known by the day after election night (November 4, 2020).
“I think we're going to know tomorrow.” View on YouTube
The winner was not known the day after election night; it took until Saturday, November 7, 2020, four days later.
Based on then-current betting odds (Trump trading at about $1.60), C predicts that Donald Trump will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
“Yeah I have to go with the math. I think Trump uh, $1.60 is pretty significant. So I have to pick that direction.” View on YouTube
Betting odds that night favored Trump, but Biden ultimately won the 2020 presidential election.