California will experience a huge state budget shortfall in the fiscal year following this June 30, 2022 discussion (i.e., in 2023), primarily because there will be little to no capital gains tax revenue compared with the prior boom year.
“So do you think that's going to be the case this year? I think we're due for a huge budget shortfall next year because there's going to be no capital gains.”
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Explanation
California did face a large state budget shortfall in the 2023-2024 cycle as capital gains tax revenue collapsed with the 2022 market downturn, roughly matching the prediction.
In the coming years after mid‑2022, U.S. (and likely other) authorities will launch extensive criminal and civil investigations into crypto (district attorneys and DOJ), leading to very heavy regulation of the crypto industry—making it one of the most heavily regulated sectors and significantly reducing profit and innovation opportunities compared with the pre‑2022 period.
“All of this is going to inspire a lot of district attorneys and DOJ activity. The discovery is going to be bonkers, and it's all going to be regulated to the point of in which it kills a lot of the opportunity. I think this is going to become the most regulated space we've ever seen.”
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Explanation
Crypto did see extensive DOJ and regulatory enforcement action following the FTX collapse and other scandals in 2022-2023, but the industry did not become fully paralyzed; it rebounded significantly with new legislation (GENIUS Act) and institutional adoption by 2025.
From the then‑current Bitcoin price of roughly $20,000 in late June 2022, Bitcoin still has substantial downside and is likely to rebase toward a "rational" level in the roughly $3,500–$5,000 range (i.e., on the order of ~75% further decline) as post‑QE repricing completes over the subsequent market cycle.
“And if you look at that chart, what it really tells you is that the baseline price of Bitcoin, where things seemed, you know, where rational supply and demand were meeting each other before all these, you know.
B [00:34:07.110]: Five, 10,000.
A [00:34:08.909]: 3500 to 5000.
B [00:34:10.870]: Yeah, I would say about 5000.
A [00:34:12.190]: Still 75% from here.”
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Explanation
Bitcoin did not fall to the $3,500-5,000 range after mid-2022; instead it bottomed around $15,500-16,000 in late 2022 and then rose dramatically, reaching well over $100,000 by 2025.
Following its ~$10B private equity buyout, Zendesk will undergo major cost-cutting (especially in R&D and sales & marketing), its annual revenue growth will be reduced from ~30% to ~15–20%, and the new owners will be able to generate on the order of $300–500 million in annual free cash flow from approximately $1.3 billion in revenue within a few years of the buyout.
“Yeah, they are going to slash the hell out of the cost structure. They're going to run it to be highly profitable. They will probably bring the growth down from 30% a year to 20% or 15%. But the benefit, the offsetting benefit to reducing the growth a little bit will be they could probably generate three, 4 or 500 million of free cash flow on that business. If it's doing 1.3 billion and they stop investing in R&D and they stop and they bring down the sales and marketing, that could be a that could be a cash cow”
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Explanation
Zendesk's private equity owners did pursue cost discipline after the 2022 buyout, but detailed public confirmation of the specific free-cash-flow and growth-rate figures predicted was not found since Zendesk stopped public reporting after going private.
After the private equity acquisition of Zendesk, the new owners will materially reduce stock-based compensation by laying off many high-paid engineers and executives, retaining customer support, and shifting remaining employee compensation toward cash/bonus tied to performance, operating the company in a classic private-equity style within the next few years.
“Yeah, the stock based compensation is going to go away because they're going to get rid of all the high priced engineers. They're going to get rid of the a lot of the high priced executives. They're going to probably they're going to have to keep customer support. Probably they'll bonus people. They'll just do bonuses for hitting targets instead of giving people as much equity in the equity in the business, and they'll run it like a private equity type. Type play”
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Explanation
Private equity ownership of Zendesk likely brought cost discipline and reduced equity-heavy compensation as is typical of such buyouts, but detailed public confirmation of the specific changes was not available since the company is no longer publicly reporting.
Peloton, which as of mid-2022 has roughly a $3.1B market cap, ~$879M in cash, and about $1.4B in inventory, will be acquired or taken private ("taken out") rather than remain an independent public company, likely within the next couple of years as its cash position deteriorates.
“They have a $3.1 billion market cap. They've only got $879 million worth of cash. I'm just looking at these numbers... and they have a billion foreign inventory. That company is going to get taken out”
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Explanation
Peloton was not acquired or taken private; it remained an independent public company through 2025-2026, having instead pursued restructuring, cost cuts, and management changes on its own.
From roughly June 2022, U.S. CPI inflation readings will remain in the 8–9% year-over-year range for at least the next 3–4 monthly prints (through approximately September–October 2022), after which inflation may start to improve marginally.
“No. As I've said, I think you're going to see eight and 9% inflation prints for at least the next 3 or 4 months, minimum. I think that things could get marginally better after that”
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Explanation
US CPI inflation remained around 8-9% year-over-year through the summer of 2022 (peaking near 9.1% in June 2022) before beginning to ease later in the year, matching the prediction.
U.S. CPI inflation will stay elevated at approximately 8–9% year-over-year for at least the next 3–4 monthly reports after this June 2022 discussion.
“As I've said, I think you're going to see eight and 9% inflation prints for at least the next 3 or 4 months, minimum”
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Explanation
Inflation stayed elevated around 8-9% through the predicted window in mid-to-late 2022 before starting to decline.
From mid-2022, U.S. inflation prints will remain very high (around 8–9% year-over-year) for the next three months due in part to lagged rent effects; then by November–December 2022, global oil prices could reach approximately $180 per barrel due to Russian gas cuts to Europe and limited OPEC supply, which would in turn push inflation back up into the 7–9% range during that winter period.
“these next three months, as I as I kind of indicated last week, I think we're going to see inflation, uh, prints that are really high, in part because things like rents, which haven't, you know, which are on a lag, will get folded back in. So we're going to be printing eight and 9%. And then guess what Jason. It's the fall. It starts to get colder. You know, uh, Russia's depriving Europe of nat gas. Um, where is the oil going to come from? OPEC is basically still stiff arming the United States with respect to expanded production capacity... So where do we stand? You could have $180 a barrel oil by November, December when it's cold, not just here, but in continental Europe. Now all of a sudden inflation gets kicks right back up again. It could be seven, eight 9% again”
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Explanation
Inflation did stay elevated in the 7-8% range into late 2022, but oil prices did not reach $180 a barrel; they instead stayed in the roughly $70-90 range through that winter as European energy fears eased and Russian supply partially rerouted.
Global risk asset markets (e.g., equities) will not establish a durable bottom until (1) roughly $30 trillion has been removed from global financial markets via quantitative tightening or similar measures (or at least there is a clear, credible path to that outcome), and (2) there is an off-ramp or resolution to the Russia–Ukraine war that restores predictability to global energy and food supplies.
“we need an off ramp to this ukraine-russia war so that there is predictable energy and food supply to the world so that folks can just get back to what they do best. And if those two things can happen, then the markets will have found the bottom”
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Explanation
Markets did eventually bottom in October 2022 as Fed tightening progressed, but no formal $30 trillion QT removal figure was reached, and the Russia-Ukraine war has not been resolved with a clean off-ramp as of 2026; the market bottom occurred despite the war remaining unresolved.
The eventual political settlement of the Russia–Ukraine war will mirror the prewar three-point plan: (1) Ukraine will remain a neutral state outside of NATO; (2) the eastern Donbas region will have autonomy protecting Russian speakers under de facto Russian control; and (3) Crimea will remain part of Russia, effectively formalizing Russia’s control over approximately the eastern 20% of Ukraine plus Crimea.
“Smart observers of this conflict have been outlining that three point plan for over a year, and that is what we're going to end up with. The only difference is that it's going to be implemented by force, and Ukraine will be destroying the process. That is basically where we're at right now. Russia has. They've taken over the Donbas. They've taken over this eastern 20% of the country. They have Crimea and Ukraine. Basically. The rest of it will not be part of NATO. That is basically what the Russians have done is implement by force a plan that, frankly, we could have agreed to through negotiation a year ago and avoided all this death and destruction”
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The Russia–Ukraine war will ultimately end with an agreement under which (1) Ukraine is formally neutral and not in NATO, (2) the Donbas region gains autonomy protecting Russian speakers and is effectively under Russian influence, and (3) Crimea remains under Russian control; this outcome will occur regardless of how long the war lasts or how much destruction occurs in Ukraine beforehand.
“Let me just tell you right now, the deal that would end this war is the same deal that was on the table last year with zero bloodshed, which is Ukraine remains a neutral state. There's autonomy for the Russian speakers in the Donbas. And Crimea basically remains part of Russia. That was the deal. That is the deal. That will be the deal. The only question is, does the whole country have to be destroyed”
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