The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?

Despite no current White House decision, the US government will eventually move to formally ban (Chinese) open-source AI models, with current rhetoric about guardrails laying the groundwork for that action.

“I think again they're trying to create ideas or put predicate facts in the public record to justify an action later on. I think it's just a matter of time before they feel like they're at a position where maybe they can push for that type of ban directly.” View on YouTube

Anthropic will easily reach its internal forecast of $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of the year, up from about $10 billion at the start of the year and over $70 billion mid-year.

“Their internal forecast was to 10x this year from 10 to 100. We're in the middle of the year. They're already over 70 billion of ARR. They're easily going to get to 100 billion.” View on YouTube

OpenAI will exit the year with roughly $75 billion in annualized run-rate revenue, above its earlier internal target of about $60 billion, driven by a recent growth reacceleration (e.g., Codex).

“I think they were expecting to end the year at 60 billion of ARR and I think they're forecasting more like 75 billion of exit ARR.” View on YouTube

Cheap open-source model competition (e.g., Kimi K3, GLM) will cause margin compression that derails or significantly slows down the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs.

“I believe that this is going to derail their IPOs. I'm taking it from the top. It's going to derail their IPOs. It's going to be headwinds against it because I think that they're going to have massive margin compression.” View on YouTube

As AI models continue to commoditize and open source narrows the gap, the biggest financial winners will be training-data owners (e.g., New York Times, Reddit, X/Twitter, YouTube) rather than the foundation-model labs themselves.

“I am going to go with for my biggest winner for training data owners like the New York Times, Reddit X, Twitter, YouTube etc... So then I think the winner is folks who have the training data.” View on YouTube

The music industry and similar well-resourced rights-holder groups will win their ongoing AI copyright disputes (e.g., cases like Thomson Reuters v. Ross) against AI companies, forcing licensing settlements.

“And that's why I think the music industry is going to win and and some other places are going to win.” View on YouTube

If New York City enacts the Mamdani-backed tenant protections (banning credit checks, restricting evictions), landlords will respond by raising asking rents sharply rather than lowering them.

“So rents will not go down. Rents will go up. So run the experiment and let's just observe what happens.” View on YouTube