Non‑US (ex‑US) crypto investments will lead the development and adoption of DAOs and related crypto structures, causing the United States to fall behind other jurisdictions in this area over the subsequent years after 2021.
“it'll be crypto X, US crypto investments that are going to drive this. And that's why the US is going to be left behind.”
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Explanation
US crypto regulation remained contentious for years, but the US retained a major role in the crypto industry rather than being clearly left behind, especially after 2025-2026 legislation.
Growing retail interest and participation in DAOs and similar crypto capital‑formation vehicles will eventually force changes to U.S. investor accreditation laws (loosening who can qualify as an accredited or eligible private‑market investor).
“they're going to continue to have a taste of it. And I think it's going to be it's going to force the accreditation laws to change.”
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Explanation
No major loosening of US accredited-investor laws specifically attributable to DAO/retail crypto interest occurred.
Following the ConstitutionDAO episode (late 2021), additional DAOs and similar crypto schemes will emerge that defraud or significantly harm investors, which will in turn trigger increased U.S. regulatory attention and a regulatory clamp‑down on such structures.
“there are going to be more of these things that are going to show up that will rip people off, and that will heighten regulatory interest, and people will come along and they'll start to clamp down on this stuff.”
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Explanation
Additional crypto scams did occur and regulatory attention increased generally, but not clearly as a direct, traceable escalation from the ConstitutionDAO episode specifically.
The SEC and other U.S. regulators will not be supportive of DAO structures as a primary mechanism for broad retail participation in private investments, because endorsing DAOs would undermine their existing oversight regime.
“it does set up a very binary decision by the SEC and US regulators, which unfortunately, they're not going to go and be supportive of, because the binary decision to support them would effectively negate their oversight.”
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Explanation
The SEC has remained broadly unsupportive and skeptical of DAO structures as investment vehicles.
During the then‑current U.S. political administration in 2021 (the Biden administration), it will be very difficult to further expand or liberalize U.S. equity‑crowdfunding laws beyond the status quo of 2021.
“I think it's gonna be very hard to get get those crowdfunding laws expanded under the current regime.”
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Explanation
No major expansion of US equity-crowdfunding laws occurred during the remainder of the Biden administration.
The scale of DAO capital formation will grow roughly 10x and then 10x again: within about 2 years of late 2021, a DAO of roughly $40M size will be matched by a DAO of around $400M, and within about 10 years of late 2021 there will be at least one DAO of roughly $4B in capital.
“What I always look at when I see new technologies doing something is I just imagine if it ten-x and what that would look like and if it worked, and then I just ten-x it one more time. So what we're going to see, I predict, is this $40 million Dow will turn into a 400 million won in the next two years, and then a 4 billion won in the next ten.”
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Explanation
No DAO reached anywhere near the predicted $4 billion scale; the DAO ecosystem contracted sharply after the 2022 crypto winter rather than growing 100x.
Ken Griffin will resell the purchased copy of the U.S. Constitution within approximately one year of this November 2021 auction, and the resale price will be about double what he paid for it.
“He's gonna buy it now, and in one year, he'll sell it for twice as much.”
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Explanation
Ken Griffin did not resell his purchased copy of the Constitution for double the price within a year; he retained and displayed it via loan to the Crystal Bridges Museum.