If Hans Niemann is not cheating, then within the next couple of years from October 2022 he will rapidly become the world's number one over-the-board chess player.
“if he's not cheating, then we should expect over the next couple of years that he should rapidly become the world's number one player over the board”
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Explanation
Hans Niemann has not become the world's number one over-the-board chess player; Magnus Carlsen and other top grandmasters remain well ahead of him in classical ratings as of 2026.
The Elon Musk–Twitter acquisition will close at or near the agreed terms within a few weeks of early October 2022.
“I think this deal is going to close. It's probably going to close in the next few weeks.”
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Explanation
Confirmed: Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter closed on October 27, 2022, at the original agreed $54.20-per-share terms, within weeks of this prediction.
All major narrow/vertical AI problems (like the ones discussed: poker, chess, Go, DALL·E-type image generation, GPT-3-type language, self-driving, etc.) will be effectively solved in a relatively short time period following October 2022 (on the scale of a few years, not decades).
“because obviously we're going to solve every vertical eye problem in short order.”
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Explanation
Image and language generation AI advanced dramatically in the following years (DALL-E successors, GPT-4, Gemini), but fully autonomous self-driving remains unsolved at scale as of 2026, so not all the named 'vertical' AI problems were resolved.
In the Section 230-related ISIS/YouTube cases being heard by the current U.S. Supreme Court (as of Oct 2022), the Court will rule 9–0 against maintaining broad Section 230 protections for big tech platforms (i.e., will find there are not Section 230 protections for big tech in this context).
“to me, it just seems like this could be an interesting case where it's actually nine zero in favor for completely for completely different sets of reasons.”
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Explanation
The Supreme Court did not rule against Section 230 protections; in the related Gonzalez v. Google and Twitter v. Taamneh cases (2023), the Court largely sidestepped the Section 230 question, ruling on separate Anti-Terrorism Act grounds and leaving Section 230's broad tech-platform protections intact.
TikTok will surpass YouTube in overall size/scale (e.g., usage or engagement) in the near future relative to October 2022; at that time (Oct 2022) TikTok is already almost as big as YouTube and will soon be bigger.
“look at how big TikTok has gotten. It is bigger than YouTube almost or will be soon.”
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Explanation
TikTok has grown to rival or surpass YouTube on key engagement metrics like time spent in the years following this October 2022 prediction.