During the upcoming 2021 Western U.S. fire/heat season (summer–fall 2021), there will be a notable increase in consumer and business purchasing/adoption of portable and distributed power generators in California (a visible 'power generator push').
“We need those solutions. Like I think there's going to be a big kind of power generator push, right.”
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Explanation
Demand for backup power generators rose in California during the 2021 fire and heat season amid PSPS outages and grid strain concerns.
The Gavin Newsom recall election scheduled for September 2021 in California will occur while the state is in the midst of its wildfire season (i.e., there will be significant active wildfires and associated impacts during the election period), undermining Newsom’s attempt to avoid fire season by moving the election earlier.
“They've moved it up to September because Newsom thinks there's a higher chance of fading the worst of fire season by doing the election sooner. The problem for him is that fire season now starts in August, and so we could be in the middle of fire season And when this recall election happens and this thing could boomerang on him.”
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Explanation
The September 14, 2021 recall election did take place amid active fire season conditions in California, including major fires burning that summer.
If (as expected by the speakers in this discussion) the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation declares a Tier 1 shortage on the Colorado River based on its end-of-2021 Lake Mead assessment, then in calendar year 2022 Arizona’s water allocation from the Colorado River will be cut by roughly 600,000 acre-feet (about 15% of the state’s demand), leading to noticeable water-use restrictions in Arizona.
“there's a really important assessment that's going to happen in Lake Mead, um, at the end of this year. And the reason why it's critical is that if the US Bureau of Reclamation measures Lake Mead under, um, a certain threshold, uh, they can declare a tier one shortage. And what that means, just practically speaking, cutting through all the, you know, jargon is that initially, the state of Arizona will be denied around 600,000 acre feet of water next year. What does that mean? That's about 15% of the demand for that state. And so you're going to start to deal with these sort of like rolling...”
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Explanation
The Bureau of Reclamation declared a first-ever Tier 1 Colorado River shortage in August 2021, and Arizona's 2022 allocation was cut by roughly 512,000 acre-feet (close to the predicted ~600,000/15% figure).
New nuclear power projects in the United States will continue to be significantly delayed and obstructed by litigation and regulatory/bureaucratic processes, preventing rapid deployment of new nuclear capacity over the coming years (i.e., they will not be approved and built on timelines comparable to China’s 2–3 year build times).
“The very scary thing about nuclear is, despite all of the progress, it will get bogged down in litigation and bureaucracy.”
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Explanation
US nuclear projects have continued to face significant litigation, permitting delays, and cost overruns in the years since, consistent with the prediction (e.g., Vogtle's extended timeline and cost overruns).
As Western U.S. water scarcity worsens, government entities will eventually use eminent domain or similar legal mechanisms to seize or effectively revoke privately held water rights, overriding private ownership claims to reallocate water for public use.
“What do you think about this idea that, uh, you know, if we get into the throes of it, uh, for water, the folks that own water rights, I think that this is going to be like an eminent domain issue where the government is at some point just going to say, sorry, need it back. It's mine.”
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Explanation
No broad government seizure of private water rights via eminent domain occurred in the following years; water management instead proceeded mainly through negotiated cutback agreements and voluntary conservation programs among states.
From roughly 2021 through 2031, California will experience a prolonged, material decline (a 'decade long slide') in conditions important enough that someone planning where to live and work would reasonably view the state as deteriorating over that period.
“I think California's my position right now is California is going to be on a decade long slide, and I'm working for ten more years.”
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Explanation
California saw notable outmigration, a housing affordability crisis, and high-profile business relocations (Tesla, Oracle, others) in the years following, but the state's economy and population have not experienced a uniform decade-long decline, with tech and AI investment remaining heavily concentrated there.
In the fall of 2021, some U.S. politicians will attempt to reimpose COVID-related shutdowns or significant renewed restrictions, explicitly citing the Delta variant or related COVID developments as justification.
“I mean, I think that there's a very good chance that, um, some politicians are going to try to use this, uh, for another shutdown in the fall.”
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Explanation
Some local and state officials did reimpose mask mandates and other restrictions in fall 2021 citing the Delta variant, though a broad new lockdown wave did not occur.
By the near term following July 2021 (within a few months), the SARS‑CoV‑2 Delta variant will become the dominant COVID-19 strain in circulation in the United States, if it was not already at that time.
“I mean, delta variants can become the main the dominant strain if it isn't already.”
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Explanation
The Delta variant became the dominant US COVID-19 strain by around July 2021, matching the prediction.
Within the subsequent vaccination cycles after mid‑2021, COVID‑19 vaccination for the general public will likely require booster shots and will likely shift to a multi‑component 'cocktail' of vaccines (e.g., targeting multiple variants), rather than a single original‑strain shot only.
“Look, we're we're going to probably we're going to probably need a booster and we're probably going to be on a cocktail.”
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Explanation
COVID-19 vaccination did shift to booster shots and eventually to multivalent/updated formulations targeting newer variants, consistent with the 'cocktail' prediction.
By fall 2021, COVID‑19 booster vaccine doses will be deployed or recommended for at least some portion of the vaccinated population (e.g., in the U.S. or Israel).
“There will be there will be boosters for sure, right? Like this fall?”
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Explanation
COVID-19 booster doses were authorized and began rolling out in the US in fall 2021 for eligible populations, matching the prediction.
At some future point after July 2021, a SARS‑CoV‑2 variant will emerge that constitutes a true 'breakthrough variant'—meaning it significantly evades existing vaccine protection beyond the partial reductions then observed, leading to substantially more infections among vaccinated people.
“Now, these are not full breakthrough variants yet, but to Freiberg's point, it's just a matter of time.”
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Explanation
The Omicron variant, which emerged in late 2021, caused substantial breakthrough infections among vaccinated people, fulfilling the prediction of a true vaccine-evading variant.
Because of low vaccination rates (around 33% as of mid‑2021), COVID‑19—particularly the Delta variant—will spread extensively in Mississippi and Alabama, causing a large wave of infections and disproportionately high mortality among older residents in those states in the following months.
“Mississippi and Alabama, 33%. Come on. Get your act together. What is it? It's going to whip through those places, and you're all gonna die. You're gonna kill your grandparents.”
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Explanation
Mississippi and Alabama experienced severe Delta-driven COVID waves in summer and fall 2021 with high hospitalization and mortality rates tied to their low vaccination rates, consistent with the prediction.