E163: Market rips, Media RIFs, Texas defies Biden, Fintech reckoning, ARkStorm 2.0 & more

From late January 2024 through roughly July–October 2024, consumer discretionary spending will weaken, leading many companies to either cut prices or guide investors to lower revenue/earnings expectations compared to the prior period.

“I think that the next probably 6 to 9 months are more of these kinds of things where folks realize that the amount of discretionary income that people had is less. They will either lower prices or lower expectations.” View on YouTube

By 18–24 months after January 26, 2024 (i.e., between late July 2025 and late January 2026), broad equity indices (e.g., S&P 500) will be materially higher than on January 26, 2024, reflecting a continued market "melt up" driven by sidelined capital re-entering risk assets.

“when we look back 18 to 24 months from now, the market will probably be materially higher because there's just so much money on the sidelines and that just continues to grow and grow and grow.” View on YouTube

Equity markets are in a "melt up" phase that will continue for the next 18–24 months from January 26, 2024, resulting in substantially higher index levels by mid-2025 to early 2026 compared with January 2024.

“when we look back 18 to 24 months from now, the market will probably be materially higher... I think that all roads lead to a continued melt up” View on YouTube

For at least the foreseeable future (multi‑year), the U.S. will not again see a fiscal‑plus‑monetary stimulus episode as large and aggressive as the 2020–2021 Covid period; there will be no comparable "party" of massive money airdrops into the economy.

“I don't think it's ever going to be quite the party that it was in 2020 and 2021, where both the fed and the federal government were just airdropping money into the economy... it's never going to be like that again, because we're never going to have that magnitude of money airdropped on the economy.” View on YouTube

For roughly the next 20 years, the combination of zero interest rates plus massive direct fiscal and monetary stimulus seen in 2020–2021 will not be repeated in the U.S. economy.

“I don't think in our lifetime we're going to see that 2020, 2021 again, I don't think that's happening for 20 years or so.” View on YouTube

The economic situation for legacy media companies (job cuts, closures, financial stress) will continue to deteriorate further from 2024 onward, with more layoffs and shutdowns over the next few years.

“So it's going to get worse and worse.” View on YouTube

[Not a prediction – rhetorical question about Texas seceding; excluded from verification.]

“Is Texas going to secede from the Union? Said, all right, what's going to happen?” View on YouTube

In the legal battle over Texas’s use of razor wire and related border-security measures versus the federal government (including the 2023–2024 Supreme Court dispute), Governor Abbott will ultimately lose in formal courts but will gain majority support in U.S. public opinion polls on the border issue.

“I think Governor Abbott here is probably going to lose in a court of law, but he's going to win in the court of public opinion.” View on YouTube

Due to elevated ocean temperatures, California-scale atmospheric river ‘Arkstorm’-type mega-flood events that historically occurred every 150–200 years will, going forward, occur roughly every 25–50 years or less, with greater frequency and severity than in the historical record.

“These sorts of events are predicted historically to happen every 150 to 200 years. But based on the warm temperature in the oceans, we see it's now predicted that these will happen every. Call it 25 to 50 years or much sooner. And these high temperatures are driving a higher increased frequency and severity of these sorts of events.” View on YouTube

In the next couple of weeks following this January 26, 2024 recording, California will experience wet, possibly very wet weather, but it will not experience an Arkstorm‑level mega-flood event; no Arkstorm 2.0-style catastrophic flooding is imminent in that period.

“a lot of meteorologists have looked at the ensemble, which is the simulation model forecasts, and said, you know what? It's not going to be Arkstorm 2.0. It's going to be wet over the next couple of weeks. It could be very wet. But this isn't the big mega flood event that everyone's been worried about, so rest assured it's not imminent.” View on YouTube