Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax

OpenAI will release GPT‑5 within a few weeks to a few months after April 26, 2024, and GPT‑5 will represent a large, clearly noticeable quality improvement over GPT‑4, putting OpenAI roughly one full model cycle ahead of the open‑source community.

“the scuttlebutt about ChatGPT five is that it's amazing, and it's a big improvement over GPT four, and supposedly it's going to come out any day, week or month. So if GPT five comes out and knocks our socks off in a few weeks, then we're going to see that, oh, they're actually a cycle ahead of the open source community.” View on YouTube

Meta/Facebook will capture roughly 10 percentage points of global web search market share (currently dominated by Google) within the next several years as a result of integrating its AI search box into Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook, and meta.ai.

“just like Apple and Firefox were able to intercept search traffic, I think. And let's make a prediction here that meta is going to get ten points of the search market.” View on YouTube

By approximately 3–4 years after this April 26, 2024 episode (i.e., by April 2027–April 2028), Meta will hold about 10% share of the search market.

“So we might be sitting here in 3 or 4 years watching meta have, I don't know, ten.” View on YouTube

It will take roughly 5–7 years from April 2024 (i.e., until about 2029–2031) before autonomous robotaxi-style self‑driving services account for even low single‑digit percentages of overall ride volume in the transportation market.

“So I think that vision is five, six, seven years out from having low single digit percentages.” View on YouTube

Autonomous driving (robotaxis and similar services) will account for roughly 5–10% of total rides in the ride‑hailing/transport market in about 5–10 years from April 2024 (i.e., by roughly 2029–2034).

“So I think to the more important question is when can automated be 5% or 10% of rides? And I think that's 5 or 10 years from now.” View on YouTube

The share of total rides provided by robotaxis/autonomous services will increase only slowly, on the order of roughly 1–2 percentage points of market share per year once deployment begins, rather than being an abrupt, rapid displacement of human‑driver ride‑hailing like Uber.

“Yeah, unlikely I think unlikely. I think it's going to be a very slow rollout. You know, 1 or 2% a year. So but you know it compounds.” View on YouTube

TikTok will not successfully divest its U.S. operations within the legal timeframe and instead TikTok will be shut down in the United States under the new divest-or-ban law passed in April 2024.

“So I don't think they're going to be able to divest. I think they're just going to get shut down.” View on YouTube

Within the next few years following the April 2024 TikTok law, there will be a concerted U.S. media and political campaign framing Telegram as a Russian‑backdoored tool for terrorists (e.g., Hamas) with shady investors, aimed at justifying U.S. government action to restrict or ban Telegram in the U.S.

“you're going to see at some point, you'll see a media campaign that will be promoting the idea that telegram is used by Hamas, by terrorists, by groups that the US doesn't like, and that it's backdoored by Russia, and that it's got some shady investors on its cap table, and no politician is going to want to stand up and defend telegram. And all the industry money that flows into Washington will be promoting this idea that we have to ban it... this is a foregone.” View on YouTube

Sequence of enforcement under the new foreign‑controlled app authority: (1) Telegram will be targeted and materially restricted or banned in the U.S.; (2) if Joe Biden wins a second presidential term (2025–2029), U.S. authorities will subsequently move to pressure Elon Musk to divest X (Twitter) or otherwise act to curtail X, using that same authority.

“I think that the first step is you go get telegram because that's easy... and then if Biden wins a second term, they will eventually set their gunsights on X.” View on YouTube

If Joe Biden wins a second term, the U.S. Attorney General or relevant federal authority will open a formal investigation into X (Twitter) under the new foreign‑adversary‑controlled application powers and use it to apply sustained pressure on Elon Musk to divest or materially change control of X during that term.

“in a second Biden term, they will open an investigation and to start ratcheting up the pressure on Elon to get rid of X, because that's clearly what they want.” View on YouTube

If the forced sale of TikTok’s U.S. business proceeds, major U.S. financial media (e.g., The Wall Street Journal) will (1) publish coverage highlighting large advisory fees earned by investment banks running the TikTok auction, and (2) subsequently publish analyses describing how the tech and media competitive landscape has been significantly reshaped by the ownership change of TikTok’s U.S. operations.

“if it does go through, there's the next story you're going to see in the Wall Street Journal is how much money the bankers are going to make on fees running the auction here. And and then the next story you'll see after that is going to be about how the tech and media landscape has been reshuffled and rewritten by the TikTok deal.” View on YouTube

The 25% unrealized gains ‘wealth tax’ and the roughly 45% top long‑term capital gains rate proposed in Biden’s FY2025 budget will not be enacted into U.S. law during the 2025 budget cycle.

“These things will never pass.” View on YouTube

Following the April 2024 TikTok divest‑or‑ban law, Telegram will be the next major foreign‑owned communication app to face U.S. government efforts to significantly restrict or ban its operation in the United States.

“I think telegram can stick its head between its legs and kiss his ass goodbye, because they're there next on the hit list.” View on YouTube

If Democrats hold the presidency, retain control of both the U.S. House and Senate in the 2024 elections, and Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are no longer moderating votes in the Senate, there will be a high likelihood that a federal wealth‑tax‑style measure on unrealized gains (similar to Biden’s 25% proposal) passes into law during that Congress.

“if the Democrats have the trifecta, if Biden wins re-election and holds on to the Senate and House, but without Manchin and Sinema, I think you have to price in the strong possibility that this passes.” View on YouTube

Over the coming decades, as U.S. federal liabilities mount, the federal government will eventually introduce significant new taxes or levies that explicitly target private retirement savings (e.g., 401(k)s and similar accounts) as a revenue source.

“you are going to absolutely go after your retirement accounts because that's the only way they're going to pay off these liabilities.” View on YouTube