Sat, 01 May 2021 01:06:24 +0000
Over the roughly 30 years following 2021, the existing high level of economic globalism will be substantially reversed ("undone"), leading to significant geopolitical and economic changes.
“we have really overrotated up to this crazy form of globalism that is going to get undone over the next 30 years, and that's going to have a lot of implications.” View on YouTube
The predicted roughly 30-year horizon (to around 2051) has not elapsed.
The learning loss and social isolation from approximately a year of COVID-related school closures in the early 2020s may produce negative effects that persist across an entire generation of affected students (i.e., long-lasting impacts observable for decades).
“We had school closures for a year. The learning loss and the isolation that kids have experienced. We don't even know what the results of this are going to be. This could be a generational consequence.” View on YouTube
Pandemic-era learning loss was well documented as significant and persistent through the mid-2020s, but a full generational (multi-decade) consequence is not yet provable.
Over roughly the coming decade, China's aging demographics and past one‑child policy will erode its low‑cost manufacturing advantage and "solve" the China over‑dependence issue by themselves, which will in turn drive higher global inflation and commodity prices while enabling a significant reindustrialization and rejuvenation of the U.S. Rust Belt manufacturing base.
“so that whole China situation, in fact, demographically is going to solve itself. But the implications for America are not good. Meaning I think inflation goes up, commodity prices go up, prices of everything go up. But it allows us to actually reestablish and rejuvenate the, uh, the industrialized rust belt of America.” View on YouTube
China's demographic decline and elevated inflation both materialized as predicted, but a clear US Rust Belt reindustrialization from this dynamic is only weakly supported.
If current growth trends continue, Amazon's advertising business annual revenue will surpass Amazon Web Services (AWS) annual revenue within three years of this statement (by around May 2024).
“Amazon's ad business, 24 billion growing at 77% year over year on top of their Amazon Web Services business. ... It'll be bigger than AWS in three years at this rate.” View on YouTube
By 2024, AWS revenue (over $100 billion annually) remained far larger than Amazon's advertising business (about $56 billion), contradicting the prediction.
By the end of the 2020s (by December 31, 2029), the four major U.S. tech monopolies being discussed (the core FAANG‑type platforms) will have been structurally broken up so that they no longer exist in their then‑current integrated forms, primarily as a result of antitrust or regulatory action.
“we have four enormous monopolies on our hands. And if I was a betting man. End of decade, these four monopolies will not exist.” View on YouTube
The predicted end-of-decade (2029) breakup has not yet been reached.
At some future point (no specific date given), the major U.S. tech platforms like Amazon, Google, Apple, and Facebook will be subjected to antitrust or similar regulatory actions that will break them up or significantly reduce their consolidated power.
“I agree with Chamath. I think I don't know exactly when, but I think these companies are going to get broken up and knocked down because they are too powerful.” View on YouTube
Antitrust actions against major tech platforms (e.g., the Google search antitrust ruling) have advanced, but no major platform has actually been broken up.
Within roughly ten years of when he originally made that 2019 statement (by around 2029), governments will enact significant legislation or regulatory action against large tech platforms in order to protect political incumbents’ power, thereby undermining the long‑term durability of those platforms’ current earnings trajectories.
“the market doesn't believe that their earnings potential is durable, because the market is sure that in the next ten or so years, governments will start to act because they care about their own self-preservation. So if you get very reductionist, at the end of the day, that's what governments care about. And so they're going to legislate to protect their monopoly, which is the ability to have power.” View on YouTube
The predicted roughly-2029 horizon has not yet been reached.