From mid-2021 onward, essentially all unvaccinated people will eventually be infected with the COVID-19 Delta variant.
“I think we're at the point now where if you're not vaccinated, you're going to get you're going to get the delta variant”
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Explanation
Not essentially all unvaccinated people were infected with the Delta variant; while Delta caused a large wave, many unvaccinated individuals were never infected during that period, especially with subsequent variants displacing Delta.
Within a short period after July 2021, COVID-19 vaccination policy and practice will shift such that the general population will be recommended to receive a third (booster) dose.
“both of them kind of said, I think we're going to need to do a booster very soon for everyone, and we're going to need to get a third shot.”
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Explanation
The FDA and CDC did authorize and recommend COVID-19 booster doses starting in fall 2021, matching the prediction.
Vaccine effectiveness against infection for mRNA COVID-19 vaccines will decline to roughly two-thirds (~60–70%) about six months after completion of the initial vaccination series.
“it sounds like he was saying that you're going to see an efficacy drop to that kind of two thirds level after about six months of your after getting your vaccine.”
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Explanation
Studies from 2021 did show mRNA vaccine effectiveness against infection declining to roughly 60-70% around six months post-vaccination, consistent with the prediction, though protection against severe disease remained higher.
COVID-19 booster doses will be authorized and available on the market in the United States by September 2021.
“it's almost certain we're going to get boosters and that we're going to end up seeing them hit the market next month in September.”
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Explanation
COVID-19 booster doses were authorized in the US in September 2021 for certain populations, closely matching the prediction.
If approximately 40% of Americans are still unvaccinated 2–3 years after mid-2021 (i.e., by mid-2023 to mid-2024), a highly lethal COVID-19 variant that causes substantial mortality among those unvaccinated people will almost certainly emerge in that period.
“if 40% of Americans remain unvaccinated 2 or 3 years from now, the odds that there will be a strain that is the killer strain that does meaningful damage to those people, I think is basically 100%.”
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Explanation
A more lethal 'killer strain' causing dramatically higher mortality among unvaccinated Americans did not clearly emerge in the 2023-2024 window; Omicron and its descendants proved more transmissible but generally less severe, making the '100% certainty' framing incorrect even though unvaccinated people did face elevated risk overall.
In the weeks following mid-July 2021, rising reports of breakthrough COVID-19 infections will cause a noticeable share of people to voluntarily reduce travel, flying, and restaurant dining, even without formal lockdowns.
“people are going to get scared again. And people if we're not kind of enforcing economic lockdown, people will go into social lockdown. Um, and we're going to revisit, uh, you know, more of the behavior we saw over the past year where people are going to be nervous to travel. Uh, people are going to be nervous to fly. People are gonna be nervous to go to restaurants.”
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Explanation
Some voluntary caution around travel and dining did increase during the Delta wave in summer 2021, though behavior changes were less pronounced and widespread than the full 'social lockdown' framing implies.
Within about four weeks after mid-July 2021, many people will become more hesitant to engage in discretionary activities like theme park visits and travel as they hear about more vaccinated friends getting COVID-19.
“I would say that at this point, uh, you know, if all other things being equal, would I go to Disneyland with my kids, I would probably wait right now, 6 to 12 weeks to see what happens here... I think a lot of people are going to be feeling that way in the next four weeks as they hear about more friends getting Covid.”
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Explanation
Some increased hesitancy toward discretionary activities did occur during the Delta surge in the following weeks, though it was not a dominant, broadly reported social pattern at the scale implied.
California Governor Gavin Newsom may reimpose significant COVID-19 restrictions or partial lockdown measures in California around September 2021.
“You could see him locking it back up in September.”
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Explanation
Gavin Newsom did not reimpose significant COVID-19 lockdown measures in California around September 2021; the state continued its reopening trajectory.
By around 2031 (within a decade from July 2021), between 1 and 2 billion additional people who previously lacked broadband will have broadband internet access, leading to a transformational impact on the planet’s economy and society.
“We're going to take 1 billion or 2 billion people and give them broadband instantly within a decade. This is going to change the face of the planet.”
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Explanation
Global broadband and mobile internet access expanded substantially through the 2020s via satellite (Starlink) and mobile network growth, though reaching a full additional 1-2 billion people specifically within exactly a decade from 2021 is not precisely confirmed.
By around mid-2026 (within five years of July 2021), internet access will be pervasive across the entire Earth, with effectively complete global coverage.
“I think that, um, within the next five years, we'll probably have pervasive internet access everywhere in the Earth. And that's that's transformational.”
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Explanation
Internet access is not yet pervasive across the entire Earth as of mid-2026; significant coverage gaps remain in many rural and developing regions despite satellite internet expansion.
Virgin Galactic will begin commercial passenger operations within 2–3 fiscal quarters after July 2021 (i.e., by roughly mid-2022).
“we'll, uh, we'll be starting commercial ops, I think, uh, you know, the next 2 or 3 quarters.”
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Explanation
Virgin Galactic did not begin regular commercial passenger operations within 2-3 quarters of July 2021; its first full commercial flight did not occur until June 2023, and the company later paused commercial flights in 2024 amid financial difficulties.
Within 1–2 years from July 2021, the risk of death or serious injury per trip for commercial space tourism flights will become lower than the comparable risk per trip for riding a motorcycle, and at some later point will become lower than that for driving a car.
“I think that flying in space tourism in the next year or two will be safer than riding a motorcycle, and then eventually it'll be safer than, you know, driving a car or something. It's quite possible.”
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Explanation
No comprehensive per-trip safety statistics comparing commercial space tourism to motorcycling or driving have been established given the extremely limited number of space tourism flights to date.
At some future point when his children are of age, Chamath will either (a) buy each child a ticket to space when they turn 18, or (b) take a family spaceflight where the whole cabin is his family.
“either of those ideas. I will do one of those two.”
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Explanation
Chamath's children had not yet reached the relevant milestone age as of this prediction's timeframe, so this cannot yet be evaluated.
During the upcoming Italy trip being discussed (summer 2021), Jason will gain approximately 15 pounds in body weight.
“He's gonna gain £15. He's gonna break. Look at him. 100%.”
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