Fri, 14 Jun 2024 21:58:00 +0000
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Democrats will lose and Joe Biden will be defeated by Donald Trump by a large margin (i.e., not a narrow squeaker outcome).
“you're going to lose the election and Biden's going to get demolished.” View on YouTube
Trump won the 2024 election, but by a relatively narrow margin (about 1.5 points in the popular vote), not the 'demolished' large-margin landslide predicted.
Before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Democratic Party will replace Joe Biden with another candidate as the party’s nominee for president (a "hot swap").
“you're going to get demolished if you don't hot swap them. I guarantee you hot swap is coming.” View on YouTube
The Democratic Party did replace Joe Biden with Kamala Harris as its 2024 nominee before the general election, following his July 2024 withdrawal.
Joe Biden will not voluntarily step down as the Democratic presidential nominee before the 2024 U.S. election; he will remain the nominee through Election Day 2024.
“I don't think Biden is going to step down at all.” View on YouTube
Biden did step down as the Democratic nominee in July 2024 following pressure after his poor debate performance, contradicting this prediction.
If Joe Biden wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election, he will not complete the full four-year term ending in January 2029 (i.e., he will leave office early for some reason).
“But I do think there's a chance, a nontrivial chance that Biden wins. And if he does, I don't think he's going to make it four years.” View on YouTube
Biden withdrew from the race before the election and did not become president again, so this conditional prediction about completing a full term was never tested.
Conditional on both being candidates in 2024, Donald Trump has a substantially higher probability than Joe Biden of remaining physically and cognitively capable of serving out a full four-year presidential term starting in January 2025.
“from at least what I saw up close, I think it's a much higher probability that Donald Trump does than President Biden does.” View on YouTube
Trump won the 2024 election and, as of mid-2026, remains actively serving as president, generally consistent with the prediction that he had a higher probability of completing his term capably than Biden would have.
If the Delaware court awards the plaintiff’s lawyers in the Tesla pay-package case billions of dollars in fees, Delaware will see a significant loss of its status as the premier U.S. state for corporate incorporation, with a material shift of new or re-domiciling corporations choosing other jurisdictions instead of Delaware.
“If they award these lawyers billions of dollars, which is what they're seeking, no one's going to want to do business in Delaware anymore because it subjects you to these stick up heists by trial lawyers. So I think that's going to be the next big shoe to drop is what are these trial lawyers get awarded?” View on YouTube
Delaware retained its dominant position as the leading US state for corporate incorporation through 2025-2026 despite the large Musk pay-package legal fee award and ruling controversy; while some companies (including Tesla itself) did reincorporate elsewhere (Texas), a broad exodus from Delaware did not materialize.
Apple will monetize its system-level default large language model (LLM) integration on iOS/macOS by running a paid competition among model providers (e.g., OpenAI, Google, others) and awarding default placement to the highest bidder, similar to its existing default search-engine deals.
“Obviously, it doesn't take a genius to predict that Apple is going to auction off the LLM integration, I think, to the highest bidder. They did that with the search deal.” View on YouTube
Apple has continued integrating multiple AI model partners (including OpenAI for certain Apple Intelligence features) rather than clearly running a full competitive 'auction' process comparable to its search-default deal structure.
Apple will become the dominant provider/platform for consumer-facing AI assistants on personal devices (phones, tablets, PCs) over the next AI adoption cycle, outcompeting other consumer AI platforms.
“And I think this means that Apple is going to win the AI consumer.” View on YouTube
Apple did not become the dominant provider of consumer AI assistants; Apple Intelligence's rollout was delayed and received mixed reviews, while OpenAI's ChatGPT, Google Gemini, and others maintained larger consumer AI usage bases.
Within a couple of years from June 2024 (by roughly mid‑2026), many large enterprises will have built effective internal LLM‑based tools on top of smaller open‑source models, reducing or eliminating the need to pay for external proprietary AI services like ChatGPT for many internal use cases.
“So I can see like a couple of years from now, all these big enterprises are going to figure this thing out, and then you're not necessarily going to need to pay for the ChatGPT stuff. If there's an internal tool and an internal LLM that” View on YouTube
Many large enterprises did build internal AI tools on open-source and smaller models by 2025-2026, reducing some reliance on proprietary services for certain use cases, though ChatGPT/OpenAI's enterprise business continued growing substantially rather than being broadly displaced.
Over the next couple of years following June 2024 (through roughly mid‑2026), most organizations will maintain roughly flat headcount levels while per‑employee productivity rises significantly due to AI tools, resulting in notably higher organizational efficiency without substantial net job cuts or net hiring.
“Anyway, this is going to make people bionic. I think all organizations will have the same number of people for the next couple of years. and then just individuals will get better and better at their jobs. And so efficiency is going to go way up.” View on YouTube
Corporate headcount trends were mixed through 2025-2026, with some sectors seeing AI-driven efficiency gains without major layoffs and others (notably tech) conducting significant workforce reductions attributed partly to AI, making the clean 'flat headcount, rising productivity' framing only partially accurate.
As of mid‑2024, the U.S. macro environment should be classifiable as stagflation: real GDP growth will remain low (around 1–2% annualized) while CPI inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, at least through the then‑current measurement period (Q2 2024).
“We have stagflation right now. Definitely.” View on YouTube
US GDP growth in mid-2024 was actually solid (above 2% annualized) while inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target, meaning the growth component of the 'stagflation' framing was not well supported by the data at that specific time.
In the near term (i.e., over the upcoming rate‑setting cycle in 2024–2025), the U.S. economy will slow such that (a) unemployment will rise from current levels, (b) real GDP will contract (at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth), and (c) the Federal Reserve will implement more than one interest rate cut before the cycle is over.
“So I think what we're starting to see is that for the large portion of the economy, we've run out of cash to spend. And as a result, I do think that we are going to see an economic slowing... So I think unemployment is going back up. I think GDP is going to shrink. Yeah. And so I kind of tend to be in this camp that we're going to see more than one rate cut.” View on YouTube
Unemployment did drift modestly higher through 2024-2025 and the Fed did deliver multiple rate cuts, but real GDP did not contract during this period; the economy continued to grow, contrary to the predicted GDP shrinkage.
By the time of the U.S. 2024 general election (November 5, 2024), there is a material chance that at least one quarterly U.S. real GDP print immediately preceding the election will be negative, indicating recessionary conditions going into the election.
“We could have a negative recessionary print going into the election cycle. I think that's very possible.” View on YouTube
US GDP growth remained positive heading into and through the November 2024 election; no negative quarterly GDP print occurred in that window.