Fri, 30 Jul 2021 03:50:48 +0000
In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, the Democratic Party will retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
“Right now, I think that... I think the Democrats are going to keep the House.” View on YouTube
Republicans won control of the US House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections, contradicting the prediction.
Within roughly 2 weeks to 2 months of this July 30, 2021 episode, the U.S. CDC will officially change its COVID-19 policy/guidance regarding vaccinated people (e.g., on masking or transmission), aligning with the concerns discussed about Delta and vaccinated spread.
“Even the CDC hasn't officially changed their policy yet. I mean, it's coming, right? We know it's coming. They've always been behind the curve. We've predicted the policy change on this show anywhere from two weeks to two months before they actually do it.” View on YouTube
The CDC reversed its mask guidance for vaccinated people within days of this episode, in late July 2021, well within the predicted window.
Over the coming years, the Chinese government will increasingly move to de facto or de jure nationalize major parts of its technology sector, asserting direct state control or ownership over large Chinese internet and tech companies.
“I think that what we're what we're starting to see is the beginning of Nationalizations. And I think it's going to start in technology universe, because those are the critical assets that the Chinese need to own for the future.” View on YouTube
China's 2021-2022 tech crackdown significantly increased state control over major tech companies, though it stopped short of formal, complete nationalization.
Following the COVID-19 vaccines, many additional medical products (vaccines and/or therapies) based on mRNA technology will be developed and brought to market in subsequent years.
“I mean, I think what it what it shows is that these Covid vaccines are just the first product, the first breakthrough product of this mRNA technology, there's going to be a lot more.” View on YouTube
Additional mRNA-based medical products (including cancer vaccine candidates and other therapeutics) advanced significantly through the mid-2020s beyond the initial COVID vaccines.
Over the coming years, global trade policy will increasingly adopt carbon tariffs, where importing countries assess duties based on the lifecycle carbon emissions of products (e.g., a British carbon tariff on a German Volkswagen), and this shift will create large redistributions of economic value (both gains and losses) across companies and sectors.
“I think that that's where the world is going, and that's probably David, to your point, it's going to be a really big value unlock because the amount of money that'll get both made but also destroyed in that process will be incredible.” View on YouTube
The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism did launch, but carbon tariffs have not become a globally widespread trade-policy norm.
Within 20–30 years from July 2021 (i.e., by July 2041–2051), there will be a practical breakthrough in room‑temperature superconductors, enabling superconductivity at or near ambient conditions and causing a major shift in how energy transmission and storage problems are addressed.
“People have been innovating in bringing that up to room temperature in that breakthrough, which I think you will see in the next 20 to 30 years. It's just a complete sea change of how we think about this whole problem.” View on YouTube
The predicted 20-30 year (2041-2051) room-temperature superconductor horizon has not yet been reached.
At least one immigrant currently living in the United States (as of 2021) will be responsible for a breakthrough that enables practical zero‑resistance electrical conduction (a commercially relevant superconducting technology) that materially transforms global energy and power systems, occurring within the next few decades.
“There is an immigrant in in the United States right now that will figure out how to conduct electricity without resistance. It will transform the world.” View on YouTube
No confirmed breakthrough of this kind has occurred.
Robinhood Markets, which IPO’d at roughly a $30 billion valuation in July 2021, has a non‑trivial chance to grow its equity value by 10–30x and eventually reach a market capitalization of approximately $1 trillion at some point in the future.
“I think Robin Hood going out at 30 billion. There's a chance this could go ten 2030 X from here. I think it could be $1 trillion company someday.” View on YouTube
Robinhood's market capitalization has remained far below the predicted $1 trillion, even accounting for its 2024-2026 rally.