Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs

Over the coming U.S. election cycles (starting with the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential race), Democratic Party candidates will, on net, shift toward more authentic, less heavily scripted, more centrist figures ("Fetterman types") because highly managed, corporate-style candidates will perform poorly with voters; however, the party will not shift as far in this direction as would be optimal for electoral success.

“I think that the corporate candidates aren't going to fly anymore with the electorate. I think that the managed corporate through soundbites can't do a long form things like this. I think that's over... I believe will move more that way. I think that the corporate candidates aren't going to fly anymore... I think they won't go as far as they should.” View on YouTube

If Trump-style, economically populist politics gains strong popular support over the next two years (by roughly early 2027), Democratic politicians who maintain a posture of "protecting" voters from these popular policies (a Gavin Newsom–style stance) will find themselves increasingly isolated and politically untenable; that protectionist framing will cease to be a viable mainstream Democratic position within that timeframe.

“if Doge starts to really get popular support. This whole I think you guys talked about this last week, that the more that FDR style Trump and people get popular support, it's going to become a more and more isolating, lonely place in two years to still be like, you know, California Gavin, everyone's saying, don't worry, we're going to protect you against these people. If if they're doing things that are popular to still saying you're protecting against them, I think will won't fly.” View on YouTube

For many homeowners whose houses were destroyed in the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires in the affected ZIP codes, the combination of service-provider shortages and California’s price-gouging and solicitation restrictions will result in reconstruction timelines on the order of 6–7 years before their homes are fully rebuilt (i.e., many such homes will not be rebuilt until roughly 2031–2032).

“There is not enough service providers down there. You're going to end up waiting six seven years to get your home rebuilt. Now, what do you do?” View on YouTube

Within roughly 6–12 months after the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires (by early 2026), market forces will largely normalize the pricing and availability of rebuilding-related goods and services in the affected areas, reducing the need for emergency price and solicitation controls.

“I suspect that in six months and nine months and 12 months, the free market will sort all of these things out.” View on YouTube

New York City’s Manhattan congestion pricing charge for entering below 60th Street by car during standard daytime hours will be raised to $12 per entry in 2028 and further to $15 per entry in 2031, following the schedule currently announced by authorities.

“It's going to increase to $12 in 2028 and $15 in 2031.” View on YouTube

TikTok will ultimately be forced to divest to a new (likely American) owner, and that sale will probably occur during a Trump presidency, at a price well below fair market value (a distressed, "buy it now" type price favoring the buyer).

“And I think that we'll probably find one. And I think that it probably happens under the Trump presidency. And whoever gets their hands on it gets their hands on an incredible asset that they will be able to buy extremely cheaply, because there is no way that there is a fair market value here.” View on YouTube

Around the January 19, 2025 deadline, US policymakers and TikTok/ByteDance will reach or arrange a deal or delay such that TikTok is not actually banned and remains active in the US app stores when this episode airs (within a few days of Jan 18, 2025).

“Seems like they're going to strike a deal. Chuck Schumer today is calling for a delay in the ban. I'm sure by the time this episode airs, something will have been worked out to create some space for them to get a deal done. But I think they want to get a deal done and keep TikTok active in the US.” View on YouTube

Within the first six months of the next Trump administration, the US and China will reach a broad "grand deal" that eases tensions and creates mutual economic value.

“So this kind of also leads to what I think will be the grand deal with China, which I think will happen in the first six months of the Trump administration.” View on YouTube

As part of the anticipated grand deal in the first six months of a Trump administration, the US will reduce or minimize tariff impacts on Chinese imports in exchange for greater access for US entities to the Chinese market.

“I would imagine, just given the rhetoric, that this administration may try to work out again, some deal that's going to provide access to the Chinese market in exchange for the US minimizing the tariff effect on Chinese importers to the US.” View on YouTube

Alibaba and selected other Chinese tech stocks will appreciate in value over the investment horizon implied by Friedberg's "grand deal with China" thesis (i.e., they will perform well if and when US–China relations ease under a Trump administration).

“Same I I've been loading up on Alibaba a couple Chinese names with the same bet.” View on YouTube

The trend of newly graduated MBAs raising search-fund-style capital to buy and run traditional businesses will effectively cease; such MBA-led acquisition funds will largely stop being funded going forward.

“Yeah, that's not happening anymore.” View on YouTube

Corporate demand for MBAs, particularly into middle-management roles, will continue to decline over time, with the trend of not hiring MBAs growing stronger in coming years.

“That's why you're not hiring MBAs. And I think that this trend is only going to grow.” View on YouTube

On the weekend immediately following this episode’s release (around Jan 18–20, 2025), the All-In hosts will attend inauguration-related events and will broadcast at least one live episode of the All-In Podcast on Sunday or Monday via YouTube and X.

“we're all going to be at the inauguration various parties this weekend. And we will be doing some live episodes of the All In podcast, probably on Sunday Monday time frame, and we will see you on the live stream.” View on YouTube