Sat, 19 Nov 2022 10:04:00 +0000
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, he will lose the 2024 general presidential election.
“If Trump wins the Republican nomination, then he will lose the presidency.” View on YouTube
Donald Trump won both the 2024 Republican nomination and the general election.
In 2023, the United States will experience a pretty severe recession.
“I think we all believe that we're going to have a pretty severe recession next year.” View on YouTube
No severe recession occurred in the United States in 2023.
If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee in 2024, the Democratic presidential nominee—regardless of who it is—will defeat him decisively in the general election.
“Because if it is Trump, whoever the Democratic candidate is, I don't think it really matters. We'll crush Trump.” View on YouTube
Trump won the 2024 general election against the eventual Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris.
If Donald Trump secures the 2024 Republican presidential nomination (by activating his base in the primaries), the Republican Party will lose the 2024 general presidential election.
“So the Republicans have to take this really serious. If moderate Republicans want to have a chance of winning, you guys have to figure out how to beat Trump in a ground game, because if his base shows up, he has a decent chance of winning the nomination. But then you will lose the general.” View on YouTube
Trump secured the 2024 Republican nomination and went on to win the general election rather than lose it.
Between roughly 2032 and 2037, the United States will experience a major economic and fiscal crisis driven by an unsustainable combination of federal debt levels, entitlement obligations, and defense spending.
“I'm I think it's the most kind of scary set of facts and conditions that we're getting set up for, kind of a major crisis 10 to 15 years from now, because you can't afford all the debt that we've taken on as a country, as well as the entitlement as well as defense. And so something's got to give.” View on YouTube
This prediction concerns a major fiscal crisis occurring roughly between 2032 and 2037, a timeframe that has not yet arrived.
If Alphabet/Google were to reduce compensation/headcount costs along the lines discussed in the episode (roughly halving or fully meeting the shareholder’s proposed cut target), Alphabet’s stock price would rise approximately 35% for a partial cut and about 65% for the full cut within one trading day of such an announcement.
“I mean, if you sensitized it to what you said, David, a if it was just 75 or half that number, then, you know, the stock goes up 35% overnight. And if it goes up to the full number, yep. The stock goes up 65% overnight.” View on YouTube
There is no record of Alphabet's stock rising 35% or 65% overnight in response to the specific compensation/headcount cut scenario discussed; Alphabet's stock moves have not matched this pattern.
If Alphabet/Google systematically shut down non-working or low-return "other bets" projects with strict discipline (as described in the discussion), the company’s market capitalization would increase by roughly $600 billion from its level at the time of this November 2022 episode, within a reasonable period after implementing such changes (on the order of 1–2 years).
“And if they did just that, if they added that one disciplinary capability, then I think this, as you said, the market cap would go up by $600 billion.” View on YouTube
There is no clear evidence that a disciplined shutdown of Alphabet's 'other bets' projects produced a discrete roughly $600 billion market cap increase as predicted.
Alphabet/Google will announce headcount reductions (layoffs) in the near future following this November 2022 discussion.
“And it is inevitable there's going to be some cutting. So I think that there will likely be some reduction” View on YouTube
Google/Alphabet announced layoffs of 12,000 employees in January 2023, shortly after this prediction.
Alphabet/Google will cut roughly 5–10% of its workforce, on the order of about 10,000 employees, in layoffs announced after this November 2022 episode.
“5%, 10%, 10,000 employees. That seems like the number that people are going with. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's see. That'd be my guess.” View on YouTube
Google's January 2023 layoffs cut 12,000 employees, about 6% of its workforce, closely matching the predicted 5-10% / roughly 10,000 figure.