Fri, 06 Jan 2023 10:51:00 +0000
In its decisions on the Students for Fair Admissions cases against Harvard and UNC (argued Halloween 2022), the U.S. Supreme Court will in 2023 strike down the existing race-based affirmative action admissions policies at those schools as unconstitutional, resulting in a win for Asian American college applicants.
“I think the majority will rule to strike down these policies that really discriminate against Asian Americans.” View on YouTube
The Supreme Court will repeal/overturn current race-based affirmative action in college admissions (as practiced by elite schools like Harvard and UNC) in its 2023 rulings on the Students for Fair Admissions cases.
“So it is going to get repealed.” View on YouTube
In 2023, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) will significantly increase his global political influence—using Saudi Arabia’s position between the U.S., Russia, and China and moves like oil-for-yuan deals—such that he becomes one of the most influential global political figures by year-end 2023.
“My biggest political winner for 2023 is, um, MBS Mohammed bin Salman. I think that Saudi Arabia will have the most important year in the modern era in terms of their role… I think as a result, you will see him kind of rise in terms of influence… he will rocket ship to the top because of this, this kind of jockeying he can now do between these three great nation states.” View on YouTube
Saudi Arabia will begin conducting at least some of its oil trade with China denominated in Chinese yuan (the ‘petro-yuan’ trade) in the near term, i.e., starting by the end of 2023.
“If the US is creating a barrier for them to import US tech into Saudi or for Saudi to kind of invest in the US, but China and Russia have open arms and all they want is for Saudi to start doing trades and yuan. It's going to happen.” View on YouTube
Over the 2023–2024 Republican primary cycle, Nikki Haley’s prospects in the GOP presidential nomination race will significantly improve while Ron DeSantis’s will deteriorate relative to their standings at the start of 2023 (i.e., DeSantis will underperform early-frontrunner expectations and Haley will emerge as a stronger contender).
“I am going to go long Nikki Haley and I'm going to go short Ron DeSantis.” View on YouTube
The United States will elect its first female president from the Republican Party before it ever elects a female president from the Democratic Party (no specific date, but ordering of events).
“Of all of the places where you could ever elect a woman as president of the United States, I think it will come from the Republicans before it comes from the Democrats.” View on YouTube
Jason predicts the following sequence for Donald Trump: (1) In 2023 he will go on a GLP-1 drug such as Ozempic and lose roughly 40–50 pounds; (2) he will be criminally indicted by Attorney General Merrick Garland (i.e., by the U.S. Department of Justice) before the 2024 election; (3) despite that, he will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination; and (4) there will ultimately be a settlement in which Trump agrees not to run in exchange for a broad ‘Richard Nixon style’ pardon covering his legal exposure.
“I have a prediction for Trump. I think he's going to lose £50 on the Ozempic… I think he is going to be indicted by Garland… then he's going to win the nomination in 24… I think we're going to have a settlement. I think he's going to agree to not run and get the pardon.” View on YouTube
In 2023, global debt problems—particularly in emerging market sovereign debt—will begin to unravel noticeably, forcing the IMF to intervene repeatedly; as a result, the IMF will become a major political scapegoat and face heavy global criticism over its actions (for being either too slow or too aggressive).
“I think this is the year where a lot of the debt markets start to unravel… the entity that steps in to try and support these unwinding moments is the IMF… I think the IMF is going to get a lot of heat… As a result, the IMF will get a lot of heat and you'll end up seeing a lot of pressure and political… we'll end up blaming the IMF for a bunch of problems that will arise.” View on YouTube
In 2023, both the State of California and the City of San Francisco will experience major budget shortfalls (with California facing roughly a $24B deficit), leading to significant fiscal pain such as spending cuts or other austerity measures.
“I think California is my big political loser. And I would say in particular the city of San Francisco, both are going to have gigantic budget shortfalls… Now the state is looking at a $24 billion deficit… I don't know how these guys are going to meet their budgets. So a lot of pain.” View on YouTube
Relativity Space will successfully conduct its first launch from Cape Canaveral in the third week of January 2023; if the rocket does not blow up, a roughly $10B launch-services order book will ‘unlock,’ putting the company on a trajectory toward a private valuation comparable to SpaceX, while a failed launch would effectively zero out the company’s value.
“Relativity space… is about to do a launch in the third week of January… It has a launch in three weeks. At Cape Canaveral, I think. And we have like a $10 billion order book that gets unlocked… If the rocket does not blow up. There's a $10 billion order book, and this company is now on a trajectory to be as valued as SpaceX. And if it doesn't, it goes to zero.” View on YouTube
In 2023, OpenAI will receive at least $1 billion in new investment (likely via a massive deal with Microsoft) and will emerge by year-end as widely viewed as one of the top-tier technology companies in Silicon Valley, functioning either as a core AI infrastructure provider (like an ‘AWS for AI’) or via major integrated products.
“My big bet is OpenAI… I think OpenAI will become… the AWS providing tooling and infrastructure… or they will end up doing a massive deal with Microsoft. I think it's inevitable they're going to get $1 billion plus investment this year… we're going to come out of this year and say they're one of the top tech companies in the Valley.” View on YouTube
As a result of the Ukraine war and rapid LNG terminal build-out, Europe will remain heavily dependent on U.S. liquefied natural gas in 2023, making America’s natural gas industry a major economic winner from the conflict.
“Europe is now completely dependent on American natural gas… Europe rapidly built terminals to receive liquefied gas… What normally would have taken decades… was all put on a fast track.” View on YouTube
Over the coming downturn (starting in 2023), the vast majority (~99.5%) of capital‑intensive Series B–D ‘growth’ startups will eventually fail or shut down, while roughly 0.5% will survive and go on to become the next generation of $100+ billion market-cap companies, similar to the post–dot-com shakeout.
“My Biggest Loser is the general category of capital intensive series B through D growth businesses in the startup landscape… I think we'll see what we saw in the.com bubble, where 99.5% of these companies actually die. The half percent that win are going to emerge as the next $100 billion enterprises.” View on YouTube
By the end of 2023, U.S. consumers—burdened by record credit card rates near or above ~20%, high mortgage rates (~7%+), falling portfolios, and rising unemployment—will ‘tap out,’ and the U.S. economy will enter a recession as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to around 5.5%.
“My biggest loser for business in 23 is the consumer. I just don't understand how the consumer isn't going to finally tap out in this economy… I just don't understand how we're going to avoid a recession… I don't understand how if rates are at 5.5%, that doesn't finally break the back of this economy and we go into recession.” View on YouTube
The US did not enter a recession in 2023. Despite widespread recession forecasts at the time (some put the odds near 100%), the economy proved resilient: real GDP grew at a 4.9% annualized rate in Q3 2023, and consumer spending grew steadily (about 2.6% annualized) rather than 'tapping out,' directly contradicting the prediction.
By early 2023, the U.S. is effectively already in a recession, though its effects are unevenly distributed across sectors (with tech having been in recession for about a year).
“I think the recession is here. It's just very unequally distributed.” View on YouTube
The current crisis in late‑stage/growth startup funding and valuations will not resolve quickly; instead, the growth-equity and late-stage VC market will remain ‘toxic’ and largely impaired for roughly 2–3 years from late 2022 (i.e., through about 2024–2025).
“I thought that this growth stuff would get sorted out in 2 to 3 months, and now I'm worried it's 2 to 3 years. I think it's toxic.” View on YouTube
For many growth-stage private tech companies that raised at multi‑billion‑dollar valuations in 2020–2021, the true market-clearing valuations over the subsequent correction period will be roughly 80–90% below their peak private valuations.
“The problem was the real market clearing price was 80 to 90% down.” View on YouTube
In 2023, Google Search will suffer a noticeable decline in relative performance—losing roughly 10–15% of its user search activity to emerging AI-driven competitors and alternative search interfaces—resulting in a material negative impact on its search engagement and profitability.
“I think that the biggest potential business loser this year is Google search, as measured by profitability and engagement… I think that the statistics show that Google could lose 10 or 15% of usage to all these other sites… it'll have a material measurable impact to Google.” View on YouTube
Laid-off tech workers in 2023 who form small founding teams (2–4 builders such as developers and product managers) and start companies will, as a cohort, produce a significant wave of successful startups over the ensuing years, making these founders major long-term business winners from the 2022–2023 tech layoffs.
“I think laid off tech workers who, uh, get together in groups of two, 3 or 4… and start companies together are going to become extremely successful… I think the startup space is… going to be the true big winners.” View on YouTube
In 2023, as unemployment remains ‘sticky’ at elevated levels, gig‑economy and marketplace platforms such as DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber, and Etsy will benefit from increased supply (more workers/hosts/sellers), improving their business performance.
“I think the, uh doordash's. Airbnb's, Uber's Etsy's of the world who need entrepreneurs, they need workers, they need supply… as unemployment becomes, uh, let's call it what it is sticky. You're going to see a lot more people participating in gig platforms… So I think they will be huge beneficiaries.” View on YouTube
If and when Saudi Arabia begins selling oil to China in yuan (a petro‑yuan arrangement, expected around 2023), this will mark the beginning of the erosion of the U.S. dollar’s status as the unquestioned global reserve and sole ‘risk‑free’ currency.
“The Petro Yuan trade… If this happens and oil is sold in yuan, it marks the beginning of, I think, um, the end of the assumption that the US dollar is the global reserve and the risk free currency in reserve for the world.” View on YouTube
Starlink will conduct an IPO in 2023, with a public valuation of at least half of SpaceX’s then–current private valuation (i.e., roughly $75 billion if SpaceX is at $150 billion), providing Elon Musk significant additional liquidity and ‘breathing room.’
“Starlink will go public… And my prediction is that the Starlink valuation will be at least half of SpaceX's current private market, 75 billion… I think that this is an obvious outcome in 2020.” View on YouTube
In 2023, Russia and China will conclude a very large economic agreement or set of agreements—covering energy, agricultural commodities, minerals, and rare earths—with an aggregate value on the order of $1 trillion.
“I think there will be a big deal, not just on energy, but on agricultural products, mineral products and rare earth minerals… I think there could be $1 trillion deal between Russia and China this year.” View on YouTube
By the end of 2023, Saudi Arabia and China will formally sign and implement a petro‑yuan oil trade agreement (oil sold in yuan), representing a significant global monetary shift.
“The Petro Yuan trade… Once this gets inked and signed, it's a real shift globally.” View on YouTube
In 2023, Apple will announce a large, out‑of‑category acquisition—such as a major content company (e.g., Disney) or a major automotive manufacturer (e.g., Fiat Chrysler or similar)—to diversify away from its China‑dependent hardware and App Store revenue model and sustain long‑term growth.
“I think Apple ends up buying something completely out of the ordinary… They might end up doing something like buying a real content company. Maybe they do something like buy a Disney, maybe they do something like buy an automotive company like Fiat Chrysler… it feels like they've got to do something this year in order to keep that business growing.” View on YouTube
Given Tesla’s then‑depressed stock price (early 2023), it is financially feasible that Apple could attempt a takeover of Tesla—payable largely in cash—or, alternatively, Apple could more easily acquire a large traditional automaker such as BMW or Volvo in the medium term.
“The Ms.. China trade and that relationship sure… but this one is really good… with Tesla, with this depressed stock price, Apple could make a run at Tesla. They could almost buy it with cash, let alone BMW, Volvo, one of those brands they could buy easily.” View on YouTube
Amazon will develop health as its ‘fourth pillar’ business beyond marketplace, Prime, and AWS by making additional health- and wellness-related acquisitions in the near term (starting 2023), potentially including companies such as Ro (Roman), Hims, Peloton, and/or Whoop.
“I think the fourth is going to be this continuation of following the health stream… I think they're going to buy Roman Hims. They're going to buy peloton. They could buy a whoop, and they're going to go all in on health.” View on YouTube
Under escalating bipartisan U.S. political pressure during the 2023–2024 election cycle, TikTok’s Chinese owners (ByteDance and related entities) will be forced to divest their U.S. TikTok operations—likely via an IPO or sale—so that Chinese ownership is largely or entirely removed from TikTok’s U.S. business.
“My runner up is TikTok is going to divest under duress. I think that it's going to have to go public. And the Chinese are going to divest their interest in it and just take their chips, because they're going to be faced with the existential threat… there will be unanimous support from Democrats and Republicans to get TikTok out of the US. Therefore, they divest.” View on YouTube
At some point during calendar year 2023, the close cooperative relationship (“bromance”) between U.S. President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will break down, resulting in a noticeable rift or divergence between U.S. and Ukrainian positions.
“my my prediction, or most contrarian Belief is that the bromance between Biden and Zelensky comes to an end at some point in 2023.” View on YouTube
In spring 2023, Ukraine will launch a massive military counteroffensive against Russian forces, which will either be fought to a stalemate around current lines or will push Russian forces back roughly to the pre‑invasion (February 23, 2022) lines.
“there's going to be a massive Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring.” View on YouTube
In spring 2023, Ukraine will launch a massive military counteroffensive against Russian forces.
“there's going to be a massive Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring.” View on YouTube
Whether the 2023 Ukrainian spring counteroffensive results in a stalemate or in pushing Russia back to roughly the pre‑February 24, 2022 lines, U.S. and Ukrainian strategic interests will begin to diverge noticeably during 2023.
“So I think in either one of these scenarios, I think you will start to see a divergence between the Ukrainian and the American interests.” View on YouTube
In 2023, overall inflation will not decline as rapidly or as sharply as consensus expectations at the start of 2023; instead, it will remain relatively elevated compared with what “people want” or expect.
“I will go and pick that inflation, which people expect to fall off a cliff, doesn't fall off a cliff as fast or as meaningfully as people want.” View on YouTube
During 2023, wage inflation will be strong enough to keep overall inflation from falling as much as most forecasters expect.
“my big contrarian wager for this year, is that we that inflation we see wage inflation that keeps inflation not going down as much as people want.” View on YouTube
By the end of 2023, there will be observable signs that the U.S. dollar’s status as the de facto global reserve currency has begun to weaken (e.g., increased use of non‑USD settlement in major international trade blocs), marking the “beginning of the end” of unquestioned dollar reserve dominance.
“maybe this year marks the beginning of the end of the US dollar as the kind of global de facto reserve currency” View on YouTube
In 2023, the U.S. dollar will begin to trade more like a risk asset and less like a risk‑free asset, reflected in market behavior and pricing.
“maybe this is the year we start to see that shift.” View on YouTube
Over the coming years starting from 2023, the United States will maintain or increase its relative global strength (“American exceptionalism”), while rival authoritarian blocs led by Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia will fail to create a viable alternative reserve currency or significantly shift the global currency order due to internal conflicts and self‑sabotage.
“I believe American exceptionalism continues to soar as Russia, China, Saudi Arabia to a lesser extent continue to self-sabotage themselves... I believe, are going to stab each other in the back before they change the world or move the currency.” View on YouTube
The U.S. and its allies will continue increasing the sophistication of weapons supplied to Ukraine, culminating in support for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive in spring 2023.
“we keep providing the Ukrainians with more and more sophisticated weapons, more and more support. Like I said, this is leading up to a huge Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring.” View on YouTube
In 2023, early‑stage private technology investing (seed through Series A) will outperform other major asset classes on a returns basis.
“I believe it's the best performing asset class of 2023.” View on YouTube
By the end of 2023, short‑term U.S. government securities (T‑bills out to 2‑year Treasuries) will yield roughly 4.5–5% annualized, available with low risk to investors holding them through the year.
“So you can generate four and a half probably by the end of this year 5% pretty safely owning this stuff while you wait for things to become more certain.” View on YouTube
If the Federal Reserve raises rates to around 5.4% in Q1 2023 as Neel Kashkari projected, then short‑term T‑bills in 2023 will yield approximately 5–5.5% annualized risk‑free.
“if Kashkari is right, that rates are going up 5.4% in Q1, why wouldn't you just put all your money in short term T-bills? You earn five, 5.5% risk free.” View on YouTube
Throughout 2023 and beyond, the U.S. (and likely other major economies) will continue to undertake significant infrastructure spending driven by stimulus and national security considerations.
“I think it's inevitable that we continue to have significant infrastructure spending from both the stimulus and security point of view.” View on YouTube
In 2023, energy equities as an asset class will underperform most other major asset classes, making energy one of the worst‑performing asset categories.
“Worst performing asset I went with energy... So it could be overheated. So I went with energy.” View on YouTube
In 2023, technology stocks and energy stocks will perform poorly, and high‑yield (junk) debt will be the most pressured major asset class, experiencing significant stress and underperformance.
“I think that tech will have a tough year. I think energy will have a really shit year, and probably the biggest asset class that is going to get pressured is going to be junk debt.” View on YouTube
Over the next few years starting in 2023, many—possibly most—office towers in downtown San Francisco will go through distress such that lenders (banks) will end up owning a large share of this office stock due to defaults and foreclosures.
“I think office towers in San Francisco are that is some serious toxic debt... I think that a lot of these buildings, maybe virtually all of the San Francisco downtown, is going to be owned by the bank soon because no one can.” View on YouTube
Beginning in 2023, the U.S. commercial real estate sector—especially office—will enter a major downturn (“reckoning”) characterized by declining values, high vacancies, and financing stress.
“we may finally start to see the beginning of the reckoning in commercial real estate” View on YouTube
Sometime in 2023, there will be a significant deterioration in U.S. consumer credit performance, with many consumers unable to meet debt obligations and a noticeable spike in defaults across categories such as credit cards, buy‑now‑pay‑later, and possibly mortgages.
“I think we're going to run into a real wall with respect to consumer credit in, um, sometime this year. And you're going to see... consumers are not going to be able to meet their debt obligations. And so defaults.” View on YouTube
Consumer credit defaults in the U.S. will rise meaningfully during 2023.
“Defaults are coming.” View on YouTube
In 2023, a notable trend of personal and household austerity (belt‑tightening and reduced discretionary spending) will emerge among consumers.
“austerity is my anticipated trend of 2023.” View on YouTube
During 2023 and into the 2024 cycle, Donald Trump’s influence within the Republican Party will continue to decline, as evidenced by reduced effectiveness of his endorsements and increased open defiance from GOP figures.
“the trend that I am going to suggest... is Trump's influence in the GOP, continues to wane.” View on YouTube
Over the next several years starting in 2023, multiple new cell and gene therapies will obtain regulatory approval and reach the market, and there will be significant build‑out of manufacturing and delivery infrastructure to support broader use of these modalities.
“cell and gene therapies are becoming more mainstream... I'm really excited about seeing more of these products come to market and seeing the whole kind of infrastructure and delivery system change.” View on YouTube
In 2023, generative‑AI‑based media will advance to the point where we see high‑profile examples such as a fully AI‑written symphony, an AI‑written published novel, short films based on AI‑generated scripts, and early AI‑driven interactive video game experiences where content is dynamically generated for the user.
“We could see, for example, the first, you know, AI written symphony, the first kind of AI written, published novel... Maybe short films based on an AI driven script, and maybe even... AI based interactive video games... I think AI driven media.” View on YouTube
Within the coming years following 2023, OpenAI (or similar large‑scale generative AI providers) will face major, potentially existential litigation over use of copyrighted training data—on a scale that could severely threaten the business (“sued into oblivion”).
“Whoever they base this on, they're going to get sued into oblivion. I predict sued into oblivion.” View on YouTube