E59: Twitter's content warning algo, equity audits, politicians trading stocks, Fed's next move, mRNA & more

Within roughly 1–2 months of December 17, 2021, the Supreme Court will issue a strict ruling that effectively ends (strikes down) affirmative action as it is currently practiced in the United States.

“we are about to have probably the most significant movement and questioning of equity versus equality. Um, because I think in the next month, maybe in the next two months, we're going to sort of see a pretty strict opinion on affirmative action. And if you talk to legal scholars, the overwhelming consensus is this is gone.” View on YouTube

The Build Back Better bill, though nominally delayed to March 2022, will never be passed; it is effectively dead and will not become law.

“well, I mean, you know, I think we, we talked about this last week, but that bill is dead now. I mean, they pushed it to march to basically avoid a down vote. Nothing's going to happen, David. You're right. Well, wait a this bill is dead.” View on YouTube

The Build Back Better bill is being shelved in late 2021 and will probably not be revived or passed in the future.

“So I think that is why the bill is being shelved. Probably not to return.” View on YouTube

COVID-19 (including variants such as Omicron) will remain an endemic disease for the foreseeable future (multi‑year horizon beyond 2021), requiring long‑term adaptation in how society operates rather than a quick, definitive end to the pandemic.

“this is an endemic kind of circumstance. We're going to be in this for a while. And, um, you know, the circumstances are one that may kind of require, you know, an adaptation in terms of how we live and operate and especially as it relates to things that are so important, like keeping businesses open in schools.” View on YouTube

During 2022, even Democratic‑leaning (“blue”) states and their governors will roll back and largely give up COVID emergency measures such as lockdowns, closures, and broad mask mandates due to public fatigue.

“I'll make a prediction for 2022. Okay. I will predict that even the blue areas of the country are going to have fatigue with all these Covid restrictions. And so even the blue state governors who are addicted to their state of emergencies and their restrictions and lockdowns and closures and mask mandates, even they are going to have to give them up in 2022 because the country is sick and tired of this.” View on YouTube

The spread of the Omicron variant in the United States will be effectively impossible to stop through public‑health restrictions; it will spread widely regardless of interventions.

“They're already back to normal in the red parts and especially Omicron. You can't stop this.” View on YouTube

In 2022, particularly in the November 2022 elections, governors in U.S. blue states who maintain strict COVID restrictions (especially school closures) will be voted out in a broad Republican “red wave,” with Gavin Newsom likely being the only such governor who survives in office.

“I think Omicron if we have lockdowns under Omicron. And really the big issue is school closures. If we go back to school closures in blue states and have more of the learning loss that Chamath was talking about, and I bet we do. Whereas in red states, they're still out there learning normally... We're going to there's going to be we're going to be living in two different Americas... I think eventually these governors who are holding on to their power and their restrictions are going to lose in 2022, the ones who haven't given it up are going to are going to basically fall to a red wave in November of 22. I think Newsom might be the only one left standing.” View on YouTube

Eventually, essentially everyone (or nearly everyone) will contract COVID-19 (implicitly including Omicron) at some point in the future, regardless of current precautions or policies.

“I'm. I believe everybody's going to get it.” View on YouTube

In 2022, some Democratic‑leaning (“blue”) states will re‑impose COVID‑related school closures, leading to additional learning loss, while Republican‑leaning (“red”) states will generally keep schools open and operating normally.

“If we go back to school closures in blue states and have more of the learning loss that Chamath was talking about, and I bet we do. Whereas in red states, they're still out there learning normally” View on YouTube

In the November 2022 elections, there will be a Republican “red wave” in which Democratic governors who maintain strict COVID restrictions will lose their offices; among such strict Democratic governors, Gavin Newsom will likely be the only one re‑elected or remaining in office.

“But but I don't believe this is sustainable. I think eventually these governors who are holding on to their power and their restrictions are going to lose in 2022, the ones who haven't given it up are going to are going to basically fall to a red wave in November of 22. I think Newsom might be the only one left standing.” View on YouTube

During 2022 there will be a significant political and economic “correction” to what he describes as the overreaction to COVID-19 (massive monetary/fiscal stimulus and restrictive policies like lockdowns and school closures), such that by the end of 2022, the U.S. will largely have moved past those overreaction-style policies even if COVID itself is not fully over.

“Okay, I think we're about to enter a new phase, which is the correction to the overreaction. And I think we're already in the correction... And I think you'll see a further correction both political and economic in 2022. So we may not be completely past Covid, but I think we are going to be past this sort of overreaction to Covid.” View on YouTube

Over the decade following 2021, mRNA and related RNA-based technologies will significantly transform medical practice, becoming a major modality for treating a wide range of diseases (including cancers and genetic diseases) and materially changing how medicine is delivered.

“the frontiers in RNA over the next decade could change the course of how we treat disease... man, this is going to transform how medicine is delivered and the potential of things that we can kind of trade.” View on YouTube

Within the next political cycle following this December 2021 discussion (i.e., by sometime in 2022), San Francisco Mayor London Breed will openly come into conflict with District Attorney Chesa Boudin over her agenda to increase policing and crack down on crime, because Boudin will not support that agenda.

“I predict that London Breed is going to eventually butt heads with Chase a boudin. There is no way that he will support this agenda of fixing the city.” View on YouTube

In San Francisco’s February 15, 2022 recall election for the school board, at least two of the three targeted board members will be successfully recalled, and that outcome will prompt Mayor London Breed to publicly support the recall of District Attorney Chesa Boudin in the June 2022 election.

“So here's my prediction on February 15th. They are having the recall election for the education board, and I predict that that board, at least two of the three are going to be recalled. The parents are sick and are sick and tired of it. They are going to be out. I think that's going to embolden London Breed to then support the recall of Chase Boudin in the June election.” View on YouTube

Between late 2021 and the end of 2022, and especially following a Republican “red wave” in the November 2022 U.S. elections, there will be a pronounced internal split within the Democratic Party (and U.S. liberal politics more broadly) between pragmatic liberals and radical progressive activists.

“I think there is going to be a schism. I think it started after the Union victory in Virginia, and I think it's going to accelerate throughout for the next year, and especially after the red wave in November 2022. There's going to be a schism between liberal pragmatists and these extreme radical progressives.” View on YouTube

In upcoming U.S. elections following this 2021 discussion (i.e., in the next few election cycles, starting with 2022), voters across many cities and localities will vote out incumbent leaders perceived as having created or mismanaged current problems (e.g., crime, education), leading to widespread local political turnover.

“I think that and by the way, I think you'll see to Saxe's point earlier, I think you'll see the same response across the nation where folks feel like the the leaders that got them into the mess that they're in locally, in cities and elsewhere around this country are going to vote those folks out of office because they want to change.” View on YouTube

Over the few years following the COVID-19 pandemic’s peak (starting from 2021–2022), the U.S. will move away from the “pandemic politics” period characterized by radicalized policies and rhetoric on both sides, and national politics will moderate relative to that peak radicalization.

“I think we're seeing the the correction of the overreaction the pandemic caused, what Neil Ferguson calls pandemic politics, that we that the pandemic bred a strain of radical politics that we saw all over the country. And I think... I think the country is going to come out of that.” View on YouTube