Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?

Following the Silicon Valley Trump fundraiser being discussed (held in late May 2024), there will be a noticeable cascade during the 2024 election cycle of high‑profile business and financial leaders publicly declaring support for Donald Trump, making such support increasingly socially acceptable in elite circles.

“And I think that this event is going to break the ice on that. And maybe it'll create a preference cascade where all of a sudden it becomes acceptable to acknowledge the truth. And which is a lot of people support Trump. And it's not just this, it's also Steve Schwarzman came out. I think Bill Ackman's on the edge of coming out for Trump. So there's a lot of people who are now like flipping. And I think it could really start to cascade on itself.” View on YouTube

Between late May 2024 and late July 2024 (the next 30–60 days from this recording), the Democratic Party will replace Joe Biden with a different presidential candidate for the 2024 election.

“And so I think if that's the case, we really need to have the Democrats think deeply about maybe fielding a different candidate. And I believe that's what's going to happen in the next 30 to 60 days. So I'm predicting.” View on YouTube

In the first Biden–Trump debate on June 27, 2024, Donald Trump will clearly outperform Joe Biden, after which Biden’s national polling support will drop to roughly 30%, prompting Democratic Party leaders to orchestrate a face‑saving withdrawal by Biden from the race and to field a different Democratic presidential nominee.

“I think Trump's going to demolish him in the debate. I think he'll sink to 30% in the polls. And then the Republicans are going to find, I'm sorry, the Democrats will find a way to give him a graceful out, and then they'll feel somebody else.” View on YouTube

If the Democratic Party replaces Joe Biden with another presidential candidate during June 2024, that replacement Democratic candidate will go on to defeat Donald Trump by a landslide margin in the November 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“I think the Democrats need to immediately this month, in June, do the switcheroo. And if they do, I think they win in a landslide.” View on YouTube

Despite internal concerns, the Democratic Party will not successfully execute a late switch to a new presidential nominee in 2024; Joe Biden will remain their candidate through the election.

“But it's way too late for that.” View on YouTube

At Dr. Anthony Fauci’s scheduled appearance before the House subcommittee on the origins of COVID‑19 on the Monday immediately following this May 31, 2024 episode, the hearing will feature highly contentious, revealing, and widely covered exchanges that significantly escalate public controversy over Fauci’s role in COVID‑19 origins and the alleged cover‑up.

“By the way, this is going to crack open. I encourage you all to be vocal about this and to watch on Monday, because Doctor Fauci is scheduled to appear in a hearing before this same subcommittee, and that is going to be explosive.” View on YouTube

The upcoming Monday hearing of Dr. Fauci before the same Congressional subcommittee (following this May 31, 2024 episode) will be highly eventful and newsworthy, with major revelations ("crack open" the COVID cover‑up issue) and be perceived as "explosive".

“this is going to crack open. I encourage you all to be vocal about this and to watch on Monday, because Doctor Fauci is scheduled to appear in a hearing before this same subcommittee, and that is going to be explosive.” View on YouTube

If Bitcoin continues to appreciate along the pattern of prior post‑halving cycles, it will eventually completely replace gold as a store‑of‑value asset and will come to be used transactionally for purchasing hard assets (no specific date, but framed as the logical outcome of the current halving+ETF cycle).

“if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation, it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets.” View on YouTube

By the 2024 U.S. general election, a clear pro‑crypto regulatory framework will emerge as a political issue, and supporting crypto will be worth roughly 5 percentage points of the vote in that election.

“I think we're going to I think we're going to get a regulatory, you know, back to the young people we talked about in the previous story. I think the reason they're attracted to crypto is because it doesn't have government control... And they're getting organized to your point, sacks. I think we're going to have a crypto framework, and it's worth probably five points in this election.” View on YouTube

In the 2024 U.S. election, if approximately 50 million American crypto holders feel their holdings are threatened by regulation, up to 80% of them could turn out to vote, and the vast majority would vote for Donald Trump as the perceived pro‑crypto candidate, potentially swinging the election by up to 5 percentage points.

“If young people show up, it'll be it'll be. It could be 500 basis points... there are 50 million people that own crypto... Yeah, I could see how 80% of those folks show up to the ballot box and say, all right, which one of you will just leave me alone? And if the answer is President Trump, then they're all going to vote for President Trump.” View on YouTube

Bored Ape Yacht Club NFTs ("apes") will not recover to being significantly valuable again in the future; their price will not return to prior bubble highs and will effectively remain near worthless.

“When is my ape going to be worth money again? When will my ape go back up? ... Never.” View on YouTube

Following the ~20% post‑earnings drop discussed on May 31, 2024, Salesforce stock will, in retrospect, prove to have been a buying opportunity, as Marc Benioff successfully pivots Salesforce to benefit from the AI trend rather than missing it.

“my view is that I don't have a strong view about the stock, but my sense is it's probably a buying opportunity. I mean, I think Salesforce is still a great company... my guess is he's going to figure out how to take advantage of this, this AI trend for the company. They're not going to miss it. They're not going to get caught totally flat footed.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump’s New York hush‑money/business‑records conviction will eventually be overturned on appeal, but not until after the November 5, 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“So my guess is that at the end of the day, this case is going to get tossed on appeal, but that's probably going to happen after the election, after November 5th.” View on YouTube

Among U.S. independents and undecided voters, the net effect of Trump’s New York conviction will be to increase sympathy for Trump rather than reduce it, improving his political standing going into the 2024 election.

“it felt like this was always a win win trial for Trump if he gets Convicted, then you know, the conversation that we're hearing now... Either way, Trump looks good... it is clearly infuriating a lot of people... Anyone who's sitting in the middle as an independent or an undecided, I think it is much more likely that they are going to have sympathy for Donald Trump coming out of this, not admonishment.” View on YouTube

Trump’s New York business‑records conviction will ultimately result in a relatively minor effective consequence ("a speeding ticket"), either through being overturned or mooted by some form of clemency (such as a pardon or equivalent), rather than leading to severe long‑term punishment.

“I think he's going to get a speeding ticket. I do think it's going to get overturned... I think there's going to be some sort of a pardon... I don't think this is incredibly heinous.” View on YouTube

Democrats’ strategy of using Trump’s status as a convicted felon from the New York case as a central line of attack in the 2024 campaign will ultimately fail to prevent his political success (i.e., it will not be decisive in stopping him from winning or remaining competitive).

“I think at the end of the day, this is probably not going to work.” View on YouTube

Starting around mid‑2024, the technology sector, particularly AI‑related and SaaS stocks, will enter a "slow contraction" characterized by multiple compression and reduced investor enthusiasm, representing the bursting of an initial AI mini‑bubble.

“I do wonder if there is a slow reckoning underway right now in technology... perhaps the first AI mini bubble is bursting a bit... This could be the beginning of what I think might be a slow contraction.” View on YouTube

If large tech companies continue to spend tens of billions of dollars per quarter on AI infrastructure without generating commensurate new revenue, Nvidia’s market capitalization will prove unjustified and both Nvidia and its hyperscaler customers will experience significant share‑price punishment within the next few years.

“You cannot spend this kind of money and show no incremental revenue potential... the chicken is coming home to roost... if you do not start seeing revenue flow to the bottom line of these companies that are spending $26 billion a quarter, the market cap of Nvidia is not what the market cap Nvidia should be. And all of these other companies are going to get punished for spending this kind of money.” View on YouTube

From mid‑2024 onward, the U.S. will experience an economic slowdown with reduced enterprise spending and lower conversion to new tech purchases, leading to valuation multiple compression across public technology stocks and initiating a sustained period of market contraction in the sector.

“we are seeing an economic slowdown underway. There is going to be reduced spending. There is going to be reduced conversion of enterprise customers to buy anything... you are going to see multiple compression... This could be the beginning of what I think might be a slow contraction.” View on YouTube

The 2024 summer boot camp and tournament for women run by Poker Power, limited to 80 spots, will fill all available spots quickly after this episode’s release (i.e., will sell out rather than having vacancies close to the start date).

“There's only 80 spots. Go ahead and join at poker Power.com. Bootcamp. Poker Power.com bootcamp. It's going to fill up quick” View on YouTube

When the All-In Podcast YouTube channel reaches 1,000,000 subscribers, the hosts will hold a party in Las Vegas to celebrate, at or shortly after the time that milestone is reached.

“And we're going to do a party in Vegas. My understanding when we hit a million subscribers.” View on YouTube