E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more

In 2024, Russia under Vladimir Putin will consolidate its territorial gains in Ukraine and may make additional gains; the widely reported 'stalemate' narrative will be shown to be false as Russia is perceived to be winning, and Western support for 'Project Ukraine' will significantly unravel during 2024.

“I think that 2024 will be a year of him consolidating gains in Ukraine, potentially making new gains. I think that the the stalemate narrative that our media has propagated about Ukraine will be exposed as a lie. I think the Russians are, in fact, winning that war... And I think as Project Ukraine falls apart in 2024, it's only going to reinforce that sense that he's the big winner.” View on YouTube

In the 2024 US election cycle, an independent or third‑party political effort (e.g., RFK Jr. or a new party) will emerge as a significant 'big winner,' materially challenging the traditional Democratic–Republican two‑party dominance (e.g., via unusually high polling or vote share).

“I'm going to go with independent third party in the US... there may be a big winner this year that challenges the traditional two party split in this country.” View on YouTube

The 2024 US election will mark the beginning of a structural breakdown of the two‑party system, with independent centrist candidates gaining enough traction to be seen as initiating that shift.

“Independent centrists. I think this election starts the breakdown of the two party system.” View on YouTube

In the 2024 US presidential election, a 'dark horse' candidate (neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump) will win the presidency, defeating both major-party nominees if they are the candidates.

“I also picked the dark horse presidential candidate who will beat treasonous and corrupt, aka Trump and Biden. I think we're going to actually see some dark horse candidate maybe beat these two in the rematch that nobody wanted.” View on YouTube

In the 2024 US cycle, candidates and causes backed by the Koch political network—such as Nikki Haley—will underperform badly, making the Kochs one of the biggest political losers on a dollar‑spent basis in 2024.

“The Kochs... if you just want to fade a trade, I think you can pretty easily just find where the those old school Republicans are putting their money and just kind of short it... I would probably now short [the Haley] trade in 24. Mostly because of the Kochs.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2024, US financial and military support to Ukraine will materially decline, Ukraine’s prospects of joining NATO will have significantly faded, and Ukraine will be widely perceived as having been effectively 'left behind' by Western backers.

“I think Ukraine might be the biggest loser this year... the US will probably not have the resources to commit to Ukraine. I think Ukraine's shot at being in NATO is going to fade away. And unfortunately, it seems like the country may be left behind by the end of this year.” View on YouTube

In 2024, the 'collective West' (US and allies) will be a major political loser: Israel will fail to achieve its stated objective of destroying Hamas in Gaza and will face growing international condemnation bordering on pariah status; and there will be significant electoral upsets in Europe (notably in the European Parliament) and likely in the US, reflecting declining Western cohesion and strength.

“I up leveled my answer a little bit here to have the collective West as the biggest political loser, and Ukraine is a big part of that... you look at what's happening in Israel and Gaza right now, and I don't think that Israel's invasion of Gaza is going well at all. And again... It does not look like they're going to be able to militarily achieve their objective of destroying Hamas... Israel is facing, I think, a huge amount of condemnation internationally. It is becoming a bit of a global pariah... And then you're going to have a whole bunch of elections this year, both in the US and in Europe. I think that there's going to be tremendous disruption... I think there's going to be some big shakeups in the European Parliament, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was similar shakeups in the US election as well.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2024, Benjamin Netanyahu will lose power as Israel’s prime minister (e.g., via resignation, electoral defeat, or being forced from office) and be regarded as one of the year’s biggest political losers.

“I went with Netanyahu here... every major Israeli poll is just suggesting that they want him out and they put the odds. Vox puts the odds of his ouster at 75%... I think Netanyahu is going to be the biggest loser in 2024.” View on YouTube

In 2024, commodity‑related businesses (e.g., producers and traders of major commodities) will experience a significant boom, with sector performance notably strong relative to the broader market.

“I'm going with commodities businesses... I think there's a big commodities boom that's coming back in 2024... So commodities businesses are going to see a killer 2024.” View on YouTube

In 2024, profitable and especially bootstrapped startups will outperform VC‑dependent peers because rapidly improving and cheaper AI/compute will allow small teams to cheaply clone and disrupt existing businesses within months instead of years.

“I think the biggest business winner in 2024 is going to be the bootstrapped startup and or the profitable startup... we are underestimating how cheap it's going to be to copy an existing business in 2024... you're no longer measuring in decades when a company will be subject to disruption. I think you're measuring it in, frankly, months.” View on YouTube

In 2024, Anduril—specifically its Roadrunner drone‑interceptor system—will become one of the biggest business winners in defense tech, gaining meaningful adoption as a cost‑effective counter‑drone solution for ground‑based air defense.

“I'm predicting [Anduril] and role for its Roadrunner product... The reason I say this is because... the US was having to use $2 million air defense missiles to shoot down 2000 drones, and that is not sustainable.” View on YouTube

In 2024, rights‑holders that own large, high‑quality datasets (e.g., New York Times, Reddit, X/Twitter, YouTube and similar) will emerge as major business winners by securing meaningful recurring licensing income from AI companies for use of their data in model training and products.

“I'm going to go with for my biggest winner in 2020 for training data owners like the New York Times, Reddit X, Twitter, YouTube, etc... I think this is going to be an amazing turnaround for the entire content industry... where every year copyright holders can get some money in exchange for using their training data.” View on YouTube

In 2024, the New York Times and OpenAI will resolve their lawsuit via a settlement of at least nine figures (≥$100M) for past use plus an ongoing annual licensing agreement allowing OpenAI to continue training on and serving NYT content.

“I think it's going to be a nine figure settlement for previous stuff, and then an ongoing licensing fee in order to have the New York Times and their training data... I think The New York Times will come up with a license that everybody can use their data if they pay this yearly fee.” View on YouTube

Within roughly the 2024 timeframe, the New York Times will either launch its own AI model or integrate with a major LLM such that only authenticated NYT subscribers can access NYT‑powered answers (e.g., for recommendations or news queries) through that AI interface.

“Well, I think you could do two different things. One, you could do New York Times could make their own model. Right. But they could fork their model or just do the user interface, say if you want to query New York Times information and have that as part of your results. You have to have a New York Times account.” View on YouTube

Apple will launch an AI product (likely a language‑model‑based service) that explicitly shares a substantial portion—on the order of about half—of its AI query or subscription revenue with content rightsholders whose data is licensed for training.

“I predict Apple will do this, right. They'll do a language model where they say 50% of the revenue that we generate from queries or subscriptions to this goes to the people we built it off of, or the licensees.” View on YouTube

In 2024, vertical SaaS companies (industry‑specific SaaS products) charging high per‑seat prices will see significant headwinds—such as churn, pricing pressure, or valuation declines—as enterprises increasingly replace them with cheaper, internally built solutions enabled by AI and low/no‑code tools.

“Vertical SaaS companies, I think, are going to get smacked this year... I think this is a real threat to vertical SaaS businesses that can charge thousands of dollars per seat per year, that are getting disrupted by the ability for companies now to very cheaply and quickly build homegrown solutions using a lot of the generative tools that are out there.” View on YouTube

In 2024, Germany’s economy will significantly underperform relative to peers and be one of the biggest economic losers, hurt by the loss of cheap Russian gas and intensified competition from cheap Chinese cars.

“My prediction for biggest business loser in 24 is actually the German economy... I think double whammy for Germany.” View on YouTube

Professional sports franchise valuations will peak in 2024; after 2024, the rapid appreciation seen over the prior decade will stall or reverse, making 2024 the high‑water mark for pro‑sports franchise enterprise values.

“I am going to say that 24 is the peak in terms of valuations of professional sports... I would say that 2024 is going to be the year of peak pro sports values.” View on YouTube

Around the March 2024 expiry of the Bank Term Funding Program, the Federal Reserve will either extend BTFP or implement a successor facility that continues to provide special liquidity support to US regional banks.

“My biggest business deal is whatever the fed decides to do to replace or extend the bank term funding program... it was only supposed to last for one year... I do not think that the balance sheets of regional banks are healthy enough to survive without this continued liquidity... So I think the Fed's going to have to do something to either replace the program, extend the program, they're going to have to do something.” View on YouTube

In 2024, global smartphone manufacturers—especially at the high end like Apple—will continue to face sluggish unit sales and upgrade cycles, with many consumers skipping multiple generations and causing revenue growth in premium smartphones to flatten or weaken.

“I went with smartphones. Smartphone manufacturers are facing a major slowdown... I think this is going to slow down. And people will during austerity, they're going to skip 2 or 3 versions of it.” View on YouTube

Starlink (SpaceX’s satellite internet business) will go public via an IPO or spin‑out during 2024.

“I'm going to go with the same thing. I think I was just off by your Starlink will go public.” View on YouTube

In 2024, TikTok (or its parent ByteDance via a TikTok‑specific entity) will complete an IPO or public spin‑out, with significant political pressure to reduce or remove direct CCP control or board influence as part of the deal structure.

“I'm going to say this year that I think TikTok goes public, and they'll be under pressure from different political factions to get the CCP off the board. So I'm going to go with ByteDance taking going public or TikTok spinning out and going public. Some some version of that.” View on YouTube

In 2024, there will be several 'blockbuster' licensing deals in which major IP owners (e.g., Disney or similar studios) license significant portions of their content libraries for generative‑AI use (e.g., to generate on‑demand images, games, or media), creating a lucrative new revenue stream for such rights‑holders.

“I think rights holders getting licensing deals for generative AI or there's going to be a couple of blockbuster deals this year... where you'll see like Disney licensed out a chunk of their library so people can generate on demand video games or content... I think we see that again with generative AI this year... So anyone that has an interesting content rights will start to license it out and get a lot of value from it.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2024, at least a few large, highly publicized licensing deals between major content rights‑holders and AI companies for generative‑AI usage will have been signed (on top of any NYT/OpenAI‑type settlement).

“We see... a couple of big deals like that this year.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2024, OpenAI’s implied enterprise value (as measured by secondary transactions or financing rounds) will be lower than the roughly $90B level implied by late‑2023 secondary sales.

“I think the enterprise value of OpenAI goes down... my prediction is that will happen. And as a result, the enterprise values of of those companies and I think OpenAI will be the most obvious will go down.” View on YouTube

Investors who bought OpenAI secondary shares at a ~$90B valuation in 2023 will be 'underwater' by the end of 2024 (i.e., OpenAI’s market value or implied valuation will be below that level).

“People buying secondary at 90 billion right now will be underwater next year.” View on YouTube

For calendar year 2024, Friedberg assigns roughly a 1–2% probability (an order of magnitude higher than five years ago) that a nuclear weapon will be used in an armed conflict somewhere in the world.

“I think the big one that's contrarian is that there's an increased probability of a nuclear weapon being used for the first time in conflict... I don't think this is a high probability. I think it's like one, you know, call it 1 to 2% chance something like this happens, but it's ten x where it was five years ago.” View on YouTube

In 2024, there will be a significant political move or formal challenge to Turkey’s status in NATO—such as serious calls or proposals for Turkey to leave or be pushed out—marking an initial visible fracturing of NATO’s unity.

“I think there's a risk that Turkey gets challenged to leave NATO... you start to see the first fracturing of NATO happen, with Turkey being asked to leave or some negotiation on something that happens this year.” View on YouTube

Contrary to late‑2023 market euphoria, 2024 will not be a smooth 'soft landing'; instead the US and global economy and markets will experience significant volatility and setbacks, making the soft‑landing path 'very bumpy' even if a technical recession is avoided.

“My prediction for for this year is that the soft landing gets very bumpy... I just think that this year is going to be a lot bumpier than that, both politically and economically.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2024, Apple will have launched major new AI capabilities—potentially including a significantly upgraded or 'rebooted' Siri—such that Apple is widely viewed as an active, credible player in generative or advanced AI rather than remaining on the sidelines.

“I think I'm going to go with Apple as my contrarian belief. I think Apple is going to become a player in AI the end of the year. Maybe they reboot Siri, but they're going to figure something out, and I think they're not going to remain on the sidelines when it comes to AI.” View on YouTube

For 2024, the uranium‑focused ETF URA (and underlying uranium/nuclear‑power equities) will be among the best‑performing assets, benefiting from a strong pro‑nuclear and uranium demand cycle.

“Oh I took the uranium ETF Ura easy money... these companies are going to benefit from this big macro cycle.” View on YouTube

Over 2024, public software/tech stock indices will outperform late‑stage private tech software (mostly SaaS) companies, with the latter experiencing a material valuation contraction relative to the former.

“So I'm going to take the public software index, tech stock index, and my short is going to be the private tech software companies. the late stage, mostly SaaS companies... so long. The public tech cycle short the private late stage tech cycle expecting a valuation contraction in the latter.” View on YouTube

Over 2024, public tech/software stock indices will outperform late‑stage private tech/SaaS company valuations, with private late‑stage SaaS experiencing valuation compression (including flat valuations despite revenue growth and dilutive stock‑based comp).

“I'm going to take the public software index, tech stock index, and my short is going to be the private tech software companies. the late stage, mostly SaaS companies... so long the public tech cycle short the private late stage tech cycle expecting a valuation contraction in the latter.” View on YouTube

In 2024, energy—particularly oil and energy‑related stocks—will rank among the top‑performing major asset classes, driven by heightened geopolitical conflict and supply‑disruption risks.

“My guess here, just a guess is energy is energy stocks. Energy prices could be among the top performers of 2024. Just because there's so much risk of conflict breaking out now and escalating.” View on YouTube

In calendar year 2024, energy stocks and energy prices (especially oil) will be among the top‑performing asset classes, with a significant spike in the price of oil driven by geopolitical conflict.

“My guess here, just a guess is energy is energy stocks. Energy prices could be among the top performers of 2024... there's just so many ways that the conflict could escalate and create, I think, a spike in the price of oil.” View on YouTube

In 2024, a basket of "consumer comfort services" companies (exemplified by DoorDash, Airbnb, and Uber) will be one of the best‑performing asset categories in the market.

“Consumer Comfort Services is my pick for the best performing asset of 2024.” View on YouTube

During 2024, the S&P 493 (S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent Seven) will outperform the Magnificent Seven stocks on a relative basis (a long S&P 493 / short Magnificent Seven spread trade will be profitable).

“I would bet against The Magnificent Seven... I would book this as a spread trade where I would bet on the S&P 493 over The Magnificent Seven. Because, again, I just think that there's got to be some catching up here.” View on YouTube

By the end of 2024, private‑market valuations for LLM‑focused startups will have fallen roughly 50–80% from their 2023 peak implied valuations, making them one of the worst‑performing asset categories, even if these markdowns are not fully reflected on company cap tables.

“My worst performing asset in 2024 is LLM startups... I think they're all going to come down by, you know, 50, 60, 70, 80% in terms of their valuations that won't get marked in their books, but that will be the reality of where their stocks will trade on the private markets.” View on YouTube

Over 2024, shares of vertical SaaS/vertical software companies will underperform, while shares of major cloud providers offering AI tools and platforms will outperform, making a long‑cloud/short‑vertical‑SaaS trade attractive.

“I would go short vertical SaaS, vertical software companies and long cloud providers that have AI tools and platforms... you could obviously pick the companies that would go in that bucket along those those cloud bucket and go short the vertical bucket.” View on YouTube

Over the next few years starting in 2024, many high‑priced vertical SaaS vendors will experience significant per‑seat pricing compression, materially hurting their revenue growth and profitability but not necessarily putting them out of business.

“Now the market has to compress. So I'm not saying that the companies go away, but I do think pricing compression is going to hurt these businesses a lot.” View on YouTube

Freiberg’s company will successfully deploy an internally built replacement for a $5,000‑per‑seat‑per‑year vertical software tool in Q1 2024.

“We have like 100 employees. So we're paying like 500 grand. And so one of our software engineers is like this spins up a replacement for it. We're going to roll it out in Q1.” View on YouTube

Over the medium term following 2023 (including 2024), software/tech stock valuations will decline substantially from current levels as their gross margins compress toward roughly 35% and market multiples re‑rate accordingly.

“If you believe that the average best run company is a 35% gross margin business with 20 to 25% free cash flow margins, tech stocks have a long way to go down.” View on YouTube

Over the coming years after 2023, a large number of cell and gene therapies currently in clinical trials will obtain approvals and reach the market, collectively having a profound impact on many disease conditions.

“So there's this tidal wave coming to market soon of cell and gene therapies. They're going to have a profound effect on a lot of disease conditions.” View on YouTube

In 2024, at least one notable new drug, material, or production method discovered using AI‑driven predictive models (rather than traditional brute‑force lab discovery) will reach a milestone significant enough to be featured as a "science corner" topic on the show.

“I'm excited about seeing what comes to market this year. I'm sure we're going to have a science corner at some point this year that says, look at this amazing new thing that was discovered in software, and it works, and it's going to be really cool.” View on YouTube

In early 2024, multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs will be approved in the U.S., and by the end of 2024 Bitcoin will have achieved mainstream adoption to the point that it is widely understood, easily purchasable by retail investors (including older demographics), and commonly treated as part of the traditional financial asset lexicon.

“We are probably days away from a series of ETFs being approved. And so this is the moment for Bitcoin to... really see mainstream adoption... And I think that if all of this comes to pass, Bitcoin will be a part of the traditional financial lexicon by the end of 2024.” View on YouTube

Over the next 5–10 years starting in 2024, AI capabilities will continue to improve at an exponential‑like pace, with AI‑driven innovations increasingly reaching and being used by mainstream consumers.

“When we look back on it in 5 or 10 years, it's going to be pretty clear that the exponential pace of advancement in AI continued... and I think we'll see those innovations continue to percolate down to more and more of the average sort of mainstream consumer.” View on YouTube

In 2024, a major trend among startups and companies will be increased efficiency driven by AI tools and by extensive outsourcing of remote work to lower‑cost geographies worldwide, often at roughly one‑third the cost of equivalent U.S. hires.

“I picked my most anticipated trend of 2024 as efficiency in the form of AI advances and outsourcing... I think the number one trend I'm seeing from startups... is outsourcing to all other geographies around the world for work... at a third of the price.” View on YouTube

During 2024, multiple consumer‑facing products will launch that provide real‑time, AI‑generated video news anchored by synthetic presenters, allowing users to interactively customize topics and presentation style (e.g., "tell me less about the Middle East, more about Wall Street/tech").

“I do think you're going to see a lot of this real time generative video... So I'm really excited for the day that that happens... I do think it's going to happen in 2024, where a series of products will come out that start to look like this, and it'll get in terms of the next few years, if that.” View on YouTube

Under the terms of the 2023 U.S. debt‑ceiling deal, in mid‑January 2024 (around January 17), Congress will likely fail to agree on a new budget, triggering the automatic 1% across‑the‑board cut to discretionary federal spending.

“That's the most likely path right at this point.” View on YouTube