Thu, 23 Dec 2021 20:34:54 +0000
Jason Calacanis previously predicted, and reiterates in this episode, that Kamala Harris will become the first female President of the United States, likely by succeeding Joe Biden if he is unable to complete his first term due to age/health, i.e., before any other woman attains the U.S. presidency.
“last year on our award show, Jason Calacanis made the prediction that Kamala will be the first female president of the United States...” View on YouTube
Jason Calacanis predicts that President Joe Biden will not complete his first term in office due to age-related inability to function, and that as a result Kamala Harris will ascend to the presidency, making her the first female U.S. president, before the end of Biden’s elected term in January 2025.
“The prediction was made because I thought Biden wasn't going to make it through the first term because he's so old and that he might not be able to function... I mean, I think I might stand by that prediction.” View on YouTube
The combined market capitalization of the large U.S. "big tech" platforms (e.g., Meta/Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet/Google, Microsoft, etc.) will reach its peak within 1–2 years of this Dec 2021 episode (i.e., by the end of 2023) and will not surpass that peak afterward, implying a topping-out and subsequent relative decline/underperformance.
“I think that this is sort of peak, uh, big tech market cap is probably within the next year or two.” View on YouTube
The U.S. FDA will grant authorization/approval for the new oral COVID-19 antiviral pills from Pfizer and Merck by the end of the week following this Dec 23, 2021 recording (i.e., by December 31, 2021).
“these new oral Covid antiviral pills that are coming out from Pfizer and Merck. The FDA is supposed to be approving them by the end of this week.” View on YouTube
Widespread availability and use of the new oral protease-inhibitor antiviral pills for COVID-19 (from Pfizer and Merck) will effectively end the COVID-19 pandemic during 2022 (e.g., by preventing large future waves of severe disease).
“These new pills have, I think, a very good shot of doing it next year because they're protease inhibitors... I am hopeful that this will be the thing hopefully that ends the pandemic next year. Are these new antiviral pills?” View on YouTube
Barring a new serious pathogen escape from a laboratory, the COVID-19 crisis is entering its final phase as of late 2021, and the pandemic will effectively wind down from this point forward without returning to prior levels of global disruption.
“Unless something escapes from the lab again, I think that we're we're going to be okay. I think this is the end of the end.” View on YouTube
The term "transitory" will soon stop being widely used by U.S. policymakers, administration officials, and media commentators to describe inflation; its popularity as a descriptor of inflation will fade away over the following year or so after late 2021.
“the use of the word transitory, I predict, will in fact be transitory.” View on YouTube
San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin and other prominent progressive local officials implementing the "woke socialist" policies in San Francisco will be removed from office through recall elections or subsequent votes, with these removals occurring in the next election/recall cycles following this Dec 2021 episode (i.e., by around 2024).
“Chesa Boudin and all of these whack jobs are all going to get voted out and recalled.” View on YouTube
Twitter’s monetizable user base (or comparable primary user metric) will grow to roughly 300 million users in the coming years from the December 2021 vantage point.
“Twitter is down this year too. Right. Is going to go to 300 million.” View on YouTube
Disney+ will eventually surpass Netflix in scale or market position (e.g., subscribers or overall streaming dominance) in the future, starting from the state of the market in late 2021.
“and I think they're going to have an absolute killer future... I think they're going to roll over Netflix.” View on YouTube
After the WarnerMedia merger closes (i.e., the Discovery–WarnerMedia combination announced in 2021), the combined company’s equity will become a top-performing, highly attractive media stock, powered by an extremely competitive streaming content library versus Disney.
“When that WarnerMedia deal gets done. I think that's the juggernaut stock you want to own. It's gonna have an incredible library to compete with Disney.” View on YouTube
Disney+’s content library (Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, Disney IP) will drive an exceptionally strong year for the service in 2022 in terms of releases and engagement.
“this library is going to have a ridiculous 2022.” View on YouTube
Within the next 100 years (by roughly 2121), mainstream human society will widely regard industrial animal agriculture as morally worse than human slavery.
“I think one day the human race will look back and identify animal agriculture as, uh, worse than human slavery. Um, I do think that that will be a profound realization over the next century for our species.” View on YouTube
By the end of 2021, the All-In Podcast will surpass MSNBC’s business-oriented shows, and then CNBC’s and Fox Business’s shows, in audience size or viewership for comparable segments.
“I think we've probably eclipsed MSNBC. Any show that, and we're probably going to pass CNBC and Fox by the end of this year.” View on YouTube
By around 2031, DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations) will be broadly legalized as investment/capital-formation vehicles, and DAO-based fundraises will scale from the ~$40M ConstitutionDAO experiment to raises on the order of hundreds of millions to multiple billions of dollars for progressively larger projects.
“I say dowse because I believe that they will become legal and global capital formation for the first time on an instant basis will exist. And I believe 40 million is the dry run for the Constitution. 400,000,004 billion will happen in the next ten years to do bigger and bigger challenges.” View on YouTube
Commercially viable fusion power that produces net positive energy is still approximately 10–15 years away as of 2021 (i.e., expected sometime between ~2031 and ~2036), continuing the historical pattern of being ‘10 years out.’
“When will we have it online?... Still, as everyone's been saying for decades, ten, 15 years. So every year, every ten years, we say ten years.” View on YouTube
The creator economy, powered by platforms like TikTok and YouTube, will continue to grow and support new, large-scale careers and novel content formats for individual creators over the coming years following 2021.
“I think it's incredible what these young creators are basically, you know, uh, creating. It's incredible. Super, super novel and new forms of content. TikTok is super addictive... So this is a brave new world for for creators.” View on YouTube
In the years following 2021, public dissatisfaction with rising authoritarianism will drive more people to seek and adopt alternative governance models (e.g., decentralized or non-traditional political/organizational structures), accelerating related sociopolitical trends.
“I think to your point, Sachs, it's one of the reasons why we will see, uh, people in general looking for alternative ways to govern themselves. Um, and it will only catalyze and accelerate some of these other trends that, that I think we've been talking about.” View on YouTube
Joe Biden will serve only a single term as U.S. president and will not be re-elected in 2024 (i.e., he will no longer be president after January 2029 and will not win the 2024 election).
“I think that this presidency is one and done. Obviously to everybody.” View on YouTube
Starting from the week after this episode (late December 2021), the All-In podcast will release new episodes every week with no skipped weeks, with releases occurring every Friday night.
“Okay, everybody, we'll see you all next week for 2022. Predictions. Our promise to you. No weeks off for the besties. We're going to be with you every Friday night.” View on YouTube