E35: Biogen's controversial Alzheimer's drug approval, the billionaire space race, real estate, Bitcoin & more

Within a couple of years of June 2021 (i.e., by mid-2023), there will be many Alzheimer’s drugs approved and on the market, leading to widespread use such that effectively everyone with Alzheimer’s is taking some Alzheimer’s drug; only about 10% of patients will actually be cured by these treatments while 90% will not, and the per‑patient cost of these Alzheimer’s treatments will reach on the order of millions of dollars over the course of treatment, creating very high system-wide healthcare spending.

“Now companies are going to rush in. They're going to try and get ten things approved. Everyone's going to be taking an Alzheimer's drug in a couple of years, because there's going to be so many available on the market, and none of them may actually be curing Alzheimer's. Maybe 10% of people get cured, 90% don't. But the cost is going to be millions of dollars per person for these treatments, and everyone pays that.” View on YouTube

After his July 20, 2021 Blue Origin flight and transition to Amazon executive chairman, Jeff Bezos will return and publicly announce that he is becoming the CEO of Blue Origin and will work on it full time for the rest of his career.

“My prediction is Bezos is going to come back and he's going to announce that he's going to be the CEO of Blue Origin. I think this is what he wants to do with the rest of his life.” View on YouTube

The long‑term impact of widespread work‑from‑home after COVID will be reduced utilization of traditional office real estate but not its complete destruction; over time (over the next several years after 2021), companies will move toward smaller offices and more flexible space arrangements, leading to improved business performance for flex‑space providers such as WeWork relative to pre‑pandemic conditions.

“Your point of commercial real estate. I actually think it just brings the utilization down, but I'm not sure it destroys it because I think people need the physical plant now. Maybe over time they'll get much smarter about getting smaller spaces and having flex spaces. So like things like WeWork do better.” View on YouTube

Over the coming years, post‑COVID inflation in the United States will prove transitory rather than persistently high; as bond‑market inflation expectations (e.g., the 10‑year breakeven rate) fall back and it becomes clear that long‑term inflation is not a serious problem, U.S. homebuilders will deploy capital aggressively and U.S. housing supply will increase sharply from its pandemic‑era lows.

“I'm going to go back out on a limb and put up my, uh, ten year break even. I think this whole inflation thing is a head fake. And I think that, um, the right now we're in this weird position where the, the home builders are not necessarily sure whether they're going to rip in the capital necessary to build a bunch of homes. The reason they would slow down is if they think that inflation is coming. Rates go up, mortgage rates go up, and then demand falls off. But if it turns out to be a head fake, the builders will then actually build what's necessary... And I think you'll see housing supply pick back up really aggressively.” View on YouTube

Over the next several years, institutional accumulation of single‑family homes combined with low mortgage rates and constrained supply will trigger broad political and social backlash in the United States; this will either (a) cause significant net migration from high‑regulation states such as California and New York to pro‑development states like Texas, or (b) force high‑regulation states to substantially relax development and zoning restrictions (e.g., allowing much more building in places like Sacramento) in response to the pressure.

“I think what's happening now becomes the catalyst to break the NIMBYism. If all these blackrocks are buying up all the homes, if young people and young families can't buy a home despite mortgage rates being ridiculously low, and despite them having the money to do it and the desire to do it, then that's going to create a massive societal upheaval, I believe. And then that's going to either drive people to other states like Texas is benefiting because they're pro-development. It's going to catalyze the massive movement of people out of New York, out of California, whatever states are, are giving too much red tape. It's going to drive people to those states, because that's where the housing people are going to be built, or those states are going to crack under the pressure and say, you know what? We're going to let you build in Sacramento.” View on YouTube

Within the coming years, U.S. policy will move toward mandatory public disclosure of at least high‑level individual tax information and the adoption of some form of minimum tax or wealth tax on individuals with large asset holdings.

“So I think the way the United States is going is we're going to force people to publish their tax records, and we're going to force some sort of minimum for people with holdings, aka a wealth tax.” View on YouTube

Following the 2021 Bitcoin price drawdown of roughly 50%, increasing "Bitcoin toxicity" and maximalist behavior will deter new participants, damage Bitcoin’s broader appeal, and materially undermine the long‑term success and growth of the Bitcoin project relative to the wider crypto ecosystem.

“So Bitcoin toxicity is now a thing. And it's actually I believe making the movement um toxic to people. And people are not going to want to participate. So it's actually collapsing the project. People do not want to be involved in toxicity. And people think that there's many ways to win in crypto. There are. So the crypto community, because of the recent loss of 50%, I think now is in a death spiral of toxicity.” View on YouTube