San Francisco’s SoMa/downtown core will not be successfully revitalized as a dense office/commuter district in the foreseeable future; current plans by city leadership to revitalize it will fail.
“Downtown San Francisco is downtown mayor London breed had a press conference and she's been tweeting, hey, we have to revitalize, you know, Soma in San Francisco. That's never going to happen. That's off the table.”
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Explanation
San Francisco's downtown/SoMa office district has not been meaningfully revitalized; office vacancy remained near record highs (around 30%+) through 2024-2025 despite city efforts.
By the end of 2022, San Francisco will have approximately 30 million square feet of vacant office space, representing roughly 40% vacancy of an office inventory of about 75 million square feet.
“they they said that by the end of the year, they're expecting 30,000,000ft² of office vacancy… in San Francisco by the end of the year… I think it's about 75 million of office space. So you're talking about 40% vacancy by the end of the year.”
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Explanation
San Francisco's office vacancy rate approached roughly 30%+ by end of 2022 and continued climbing toward the mid-30s in subsequent years, broadly in line with this prediction's magnitude, though the precise 30 million sq ft / 40% figures are approximate.
By August 2022, OPEC+ will implement a capacity increase in which Saudi Arabia raises its oil production capacity from about 10 million barrels per day to about 11 million barrels per day.
“By August, we're going to go through a capacity increase in OPEC plus which is OPEC plus Russia, etc. Saudi Arabia is going to go from 10 million barrels a day to 11 million barrels.”
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Explanation
OPEC+ made various production-quota adjustments through 2022, but Saudi Arabia did not cleanly move from 10 to 11 million barrels per day by August 2022 in the specific manner described; actual Saudi output fluctuated around 10-11 million bpd across the year amid OPEC+ policy shifts.
Conditional forecast: If Russia reduces its oil exports by 3 million barrels per day relative to early‑2022 levels, global oil prices will rise to roughly $180 per barrel; if Russia reduces exports by 5 million barrels per day, oil prices will rise to roughly $380 per barrel, assuming other producers do not rapidly add offsetting capacity.
“They found that if Russia were to cut 3 million barrels of oil, so we would go from being oversupplied by 1 million to undersupplied by two. The price of oil would go to about $180 a barrel. If they cut 5 million… the price of oil could go as high as $380 a barrel.”
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Explanation
Oil prices never approached $180-380/barrel; Brent crude stayed in the roughly $70-120 range through 2022 even amid the Russia-Ukraine war and sanctions, as other producers and releases from strategic reserves offset lost Russian supply.
Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity increase from roughly 11 million barrels per day to 12 million barrels per day will not begin construction until 2024 and will not be completed before 2027.
“Saudi Arabia says we can get to 12 million. Well guess what? They can only start the work in 2024. They'll be done in 2027.”
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Explanation
Saudi Arabia's plan to expand capacity toward 12 million bpd by 2027 remains an ongoing multi-year project as of 2026; Aramco later scaled back this specific target in 2024, but full resolution of the original 2024-2027 timeline claim isn't cleanly verifiable either way.
Globally, governments will increasingly implement cap‑and‑trade or taxation systems over time (starting in the 2020s) to price negative externalities in production, industry, and especially agriculture, with the effect that producers will adopt lower‑emission technological alternatives because those alternatives will become cheaper than paying the imposed taxes or buying permits.
“I think that that is what is going to happen around the world is that that sort of cap and trade or taxation system is going to get slowly rolled out for a lot of these externality costs in production and industry and agriculture, particularly because there are technological alternatives, and it will incentivize the switch to those alternatives because the alternatives will cost less than the taxes.”
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Explanation
Cap-and-trade and carbon-pricing/border-adjustment mechanisms did expand globally through the 2020s (EU CBAM, expanded carbon markets in various countries), consistent with this general directional prediction.
Jeff Bezos will run for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle (i.e., will formally declare a presidential candidacy).
“Here's my thought. I think I'm going to state it right here. Bezos is going to run for president in 2024. This is why he retired. This is why he's giving money away.”
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Explanation
Jeff Bezos never ran for US president in the 2024 election cycle.
Jeff Bezos will not run for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle (i.e., he will not formally declare a presidential candidacy).
“I will bet anything against that.”
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Explanation
Bezos did not run for president in 2024, confirming Friedberg's counter-prediction.
The 2024 U.S. presidential general election will be contested between Ron DeSantis and Jeff Bezos as the nominees of the two major parties (implying both will secure their respective party nominations).
“DeSantis versus Bezos. You heard it here first on.”
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Explanation
The 2024 general election was contested by Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, not DeSantis and Bezos; DeSantis lost the Republican primary to Trump and Bezos never ran.
The All-In podcast will continue releasing episodes at least through episode 100 without ending or permanently disbanding before that point.
“We're back. The team is playing professional. Crisp ball again. Point guard is back. We'll see you on episode 87. We're going to make it to 100. I feel like we can make it to 100. Yes, we're gonna make it.”
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Explanation
The All-In Podcast continued releasing episodes well past episode 100 and remains active through 2026.