Sat, 22 May 2021 04:09:12 +0000
As a result of his firing from Apple over the controversy about his book, Antonio García Martínez will receive a settlement from Apple of roughly $10 million.
“this led to, uh, a petition at Apple which then led to him being fired, uh, which now is going to lead to him probably getting a $10 million settlement.” View on YouTube
Antonio Garcia Martinez was reinstated at Apple following internal backlash over his firing rather than receiving a large cash settlement.
Jason Calacanis estimates that Antonio García Martínez’s eventual settlement with Apple over his termination will be approximately $10 million.
“I put it at ten.” View on YouTube
No roughly $10 million settlement occurred; Garcia Martinez was reinstated at Apple instead.
Antonio García Martínez’s total financial recovery from Apple related to his firing (including lost equity appreciation and other damages) will end up being on the order of $20 million.
“I do think you end up getting to probably 20 million.” View on YouTube
No roughly $20 million recovery occurred; Garcia Martinez was reinstated at Apple rather than receiving a large settlement.
The University of California system’s suspension of SAT/ACT requirements for admissions, officially extended until at least 2025, will in practice become permanent; standardized test requirements for UC undergraduate admissions will never be reinstated.
“they say they're not bringing back the requirements until at least 2025. And you can bet it's never going to return at all.” View on YouTube
The University of California system has continued a test-blind admissions policy and has not reinstated SAT/ACT requirements as of 2026.
In the 2021 Biden infrastructure/tax package, there will not be enough support in Congress to pass the proposed large increase in capital gains tax rates, and the federal corporate tax rate will settle at about 25% rather than rising to 28%.
“I had heard from somebody that there just is not the broad based support, um, for, uh, the capital gains tax. So that's not going to happen. Um, and it looks like the corporate tax will probably go to 25%, um, not even up to 28%.” View on YouTube
No capital gains tax increase passed, matching that portion of the prediction, but the federal corporate tax rate remained at 21% rather than rising to 25% as predicted.
By fall 2021, the short‑term, stimulus‑driven spike in consumer demand and inflation in the U.S. will have largely worked through the system, and markets will revert to the prior pattern where technology and growth stocks outperform as demand normalizes.
“there's a body of people now that are voting a very different scenario than inflation. What they're voting for now is this idea that by the fall, a lot of this short term pent up demand will have worked its way through the system. And instead, we'll be back to this realization that we've had for the last 20 years...” View on YouTube
Inflation worsened rather than subsiding through fall and winter 2021, and growth/technology stocks did not return to outperformance, instead entering a sharp downturn into 2022.
Assuming the short‑term demand spike subsides by fall 2021, U.S. growth stocks will enter a renewed bull phase with substantially improved performance versus their levels during the spring 2021 inflation scare.
“If that's what we see. Good times are back in growth stocks.” View on YouTube
Growth stocks did not enter a renewed bull phase after fall 2021; instead they suffered a severe bear market through 2022.
The Callin app, then in TestFlight, will be ready for public launch within a few weeks of May 22, 2021.
“But the apps on Testflight I think we'll be ready to launch in a few weeks.” View on YouTube
The Callin app did move from TestFlight toward a public launch within a reasonable timeframe of this May 2021 recording.
The All-In podcast hosts will hold an in-person event with fans sometime in September 2021.
“we love the stands and we're going to do something in person in September.” View on YouTube
No clear public record confirms a specific in-person All-In fan event in September 2021; the first widely-documented All-In Summit was held in May 2022.
As of May 22, 2021, the then-current crypto pullback is an early-stage phase of a longer-term growth cycle for crypto, not the beginning of its decline; crypto markets will continue to develop and expand after this correction.
“It's the beginning of the beginning” View on YouTube
Crypto markets continued their growth cycle after the May 2021 crash, with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of roughly $69,000 in November 2021.
The Bitcoin price decline from the mid-$60,000s to the mid-$30,000s in May 2021 is a good buying opportunity; after this crash, Bitcoin will eventually rally again and surpass its previous all-time high price.
“This is probably a pretty good buying opportunity. We've seen these crashes in Bitcoin many, many times over the years. It plummets down and then it goes back up and it eventually goes back up, reaches a new peak. So this is probably a pretty good entry point for the next rally. We don't know when that's going to be” View on YouTube
Bitcoin rallied from its May 2021 crash level and reached a new all-time high around $69,000 by November 2021, later surpassing that further in 2024-2025.
The Chinese government will successfully suppress or effectively stop legal/above-ground use of Bitcoin within China, while Bitcoin usage in Western countries will not be stopped by their governments.
“They're not going to stop bitcoin in the West, but they will stop it in China. They 100% full stop.” View on YouTube
China effectively banned cryptocurrency mining and trading in 2021, while Western countries including the US continued to permit Bitcoin use.
Within 2–3 years of May 2021 (by May 2023–May 2024), the United States government will launch a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and will impose an additional tax of roughly 10% on transactions using non-CBDC cryptocurrencies to favor usage of the U.S. CBDC.
“the CBDC that the United States will launch in the next 2 or 3 years. They're going to say, if you want to use any of these other currencies, there's a 10% tax on them. We want you using ours, the legitimate one.” View on YouTube
The United States has not launched a central bank digital currency as of 2026; in fact, Trump signed an executive order in 2025 prohibiting a US CBDC.
Within roughly 15 years of 2021 (by around 2036), the U.S. dollar will cease to be the sole global reserve currency, and a plausible positive scenario is that Bitcoin becomes either the primary or an unofficial global reserve currency.
“Stanley Druckenmiller thinks that the next 15 years the US dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency. Well what's going to replace it. The positive black swan would be that Bitcoin becomes, if not the a world reserve currency, an unofficial world reserve currency.” View on YouTube
This is a roughly 15-year-horizon prediction (through 2036) about the dollar losing reserve-currency status that has not yet resolved; the dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency as of 2026.
Governments, including the United States and China, will not be able to fully stop Bitcoin as a global system; Bitcoin will continue to exist and function despite future government actions.
“there was nothing that they could do to stop it before. There's nothing that they can do to stop it now.” View on YouTube
Bitcoin has continued to operate globally as a functioning network despite various government restrictions, including China's ban.
Progressive, decarceration-focused district attorneys will increasingly be elected in major U.S. cities, creating a national trend that will result in significantly increased crime, including deaths and destruction, until public opinion shifts and there is a political backlash against this decarceration movement.
“this is not just San Francisco. This whole idea of these radical decarceration, they are running for Da in every major city. This is going to be a national trend, and they're going to cause a lot of carnage, a lot of death and destruction until the people realize and there will inevitably be a backlash to this” View on YouTube
Progressive decarceration-focused district attorneys became a major national trend, and a significant political backlash followed, with high-profile recalls and electoral defeats of DAs including Chesa Boudin (2022) and George Gascon (2024).