AI Bubble Pops, Zuck Freezes Hiring, Newsom's 2028 Surge, Russia/Ukraine Endgame

As of August 2025, the AI sector is in an ongoing investment boom/supercycle rather than at the start of a bust; over the next several years (through at least 2028) AI investment and commercial activity will broadly remain in a boom phase rather than entering a sustained bust.

“I don't think this was the beginning of a bust cycle or something like that. I still think that we're in a boom. I still think we're in an investment supercycle” View on YouTube

The development of AI over the next several years will follow a "supercycle" pattern of continued strong investment and progress, not a short-lived hype spike followed by collapse.

“what we should be talking about is just sort of where we are in this, in this AI supercycle.” View on YouTube

Over the next few years (through at least 2028), large AI models will not enter a phase of rapid recursive self‑improvement that produces a single runaway superintelligent AGI far ahead of all others; instead progress will be incremental and competitive among multiple model providers.

“what people can now see is that we're not in like a loop of recursive self-improvement... It's not like the leading players just all of a sudden going to achieve AGI just very quickly.” View on YouTube

Within roughly the next few years (by around 2029), AI systems will transition significantly toward architectures built from networks of smaller, specialized models (SLMs), yielding roughly 10x–100x reductions in energy and dollar cost per token, and leading to a substantial increase in total token production compared to 2025 levels.

“my personal belief on this is actually that these models are going to move towards slms... this re-architecture of these systems dramatically reduces the energy cost and the dollar cost per token generated... Ten x 100 x more efficient. And I actually think at that point token production will go way up, not way down.” View on YouTube

The current AI innovation wave will persist as a major technological and economic cycle for multiple decades (at least 20 years) beyond 2025, rather than peaking and ending within a single decade.

“we're really only a few years into what should be a multi-decade innovation cycle.” View on YouTube

As of 2025, the AI market is at an early-to-mid stage of an investment supercycle; AI startup funding, corporate capex, and strategic M&A will remain elevated (not collapse like a burst bubble) through at least the late 2020s.

“I don't think that a bubble has popped or anything like that. I actually think that we're still probably early to the middle of this investment supercycle” View on YouTube

Within approximately four years of August 2025 (by around August 2029), OpenAI can plausibly reach about 2 billion daily active users and roughly one‑tenth of Facebook’s then-current revenue, supporting a company valuation on the order of $1.5 trillion.

“at 2 billion Dao they generate a 10th of Facebook's revenue just to be very conservative. And you probably get to 1,000,000,000,005 valuation there.” View on YouTube

By the late 2020s (around the 2028 U.S. election cycle), a politician clearly aligned with the socialist wing of the Democratic Party—potentially Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—will be elevated as a major national standard-bearer or leading candidate within the party.

“I think there's a as I've talked about many, many times, a very high probability that someone who's a little bit more socialist aligned is going to end up being kind of thrust forward here. And I think AOC fits the bill there.” View on YouTube

The next U.S. midterm elections after this recording (the 2026 midterms) will be dominated primarily by economic issues in voter priorities and campaign messaging, rather than by social or foreign-policy issues.

“I think the midterms are going to be about the economy” View on YouTube

In the 2028 U.S. presidential election cycle, it will be structurally possible for a self-identified socialist or strongly socialist-aligned candidate to win the Democratic presidential primary, but such a candidate will not be able to win the general election under the existing Electoral College dynamics.

“the way that the Electoral College is set up and the voting dynamics for the presidency is set up, a socialist cannot win. But the way that the Democratic primaries are set up, a socialist can absolutely win.” View on YouTube

In the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, all three governors—Gavin Newsom (California), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), and Wes Moore (Maryland)—will run as candidates.

“So I think that when you get into a Democratic primary. Those are three people that will run,” View on YouTube

Over the coming years, self-identified socialist or highly left-wing political movements and candidates in the United States will continue to gain support and political momentum rather than plateauing or declining.

“No, I think the socialists are going to continue to grow their momentum.” View on YouTube

From 2025 onward, Germany and the broader European Union will permanently cease purchasing Russian oil, i.e., they will not resume importing Russian oil in the future.

“Germany. These people are never going to buy his oil again.” View on YouTube

During Donald Trump’s current term in office (the term active as of August 2025), there is roughly a 50% chance that he will successfully conclude a formal peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that ends the active war.

“I think he's great at negotiating with difficult people, and I think he's going to get it done. I think he's got a 5050 chance of getting this done,” View on YouTube