In the several years following June 2021 (i.e., roughly through 2024), regulation and government treatment of big tech markets in the United States will become highly politicized, with significantly more partisan conflict and political maneuvering around big tech policy than existed before her appointment.
“I think what we're in for over the next few years is potentially a hyper politicization, politicization of big tech markets.”
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Explanation
Big tech regulation became highly politicized through 2021-2024, with partisan fights over antitrust bills, Section 230, content moderation, and TikTok, consistent with the prediction.
Within a couple of years after June 2021 (by around mid-2023), a public and policy debate will emerge in the United States explicitly weighing consumer benefits from low prices and free services provided by big tech monopolies versus the value of increased competition and innovation in the business world, in the context of new antitrust or regulatory actions against large technology companies.
“And I don't think that we're really having that debate. And I think that that debate will inevitably kind of arise over the next couple of years if in.”
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Explanation
A public debate over consumer benefits of big tech (low prices, free services) versus competition and innovation concerns did emerge prominently during the 2021-2023 antitrust push against Amazon, Google, and Meta.
Following Lina Khan’s June 2021 confirmation, the U.S. political system (both left and right) will move toward treating large tech platforms that control core infrastructure (e.g., major app stores, cloud platforms, dominant social networks) as regulated common carriers, and within a few years there will be concrete U.S. regulatory or legislative actions that impose common-carrier-like obligations (e.g., nondiscrimination in access) on at least some of these big tech companies.
“I think the words you're going to hear a lot okay are common carrier. Because what she seems to be saying is, look, if you're a tech monopoly that controls core infrastructure, we need to regulate you like a common carrier... And so I think there is I think the left and the right here can cut a deal where they regulate these guys, these big tech companies, as common carriers. I think that is what we're headed towards.”
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Explanation
Discussion of treating dominant tech platforms as common-carrier-like infrastructure recurred in policy debates (e.g., state social-media laws, net neutrality-adjacent proposals), but no broad bipartisan common-carrier regulatory regime was actually enacted for big tech.
For at least the next few months and possibly for several years after June 2021, there will be ongoing disputes, challenges, and debates over mask mandates and related workplace/tenant safety rules, even after official government health authorities lift COVID mask requirements.
“it's going to bring up this whole series of challenges and questions I foresee for the next couple of months at least, and maybe for several years, about what's fair and what's right.”
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Explanation
Disputes over mask mandates and workplace/tenant safety rules persisted for years after mid-2021, including through the Delta and Omicron waves and into 2022-2023 litigation.
Within roughly one year from June 2021, the disputes over post-COVID workplace and tenant safety rules (e.g., mask mandates) will be worked through via litigation in the courts.
“It'll take a year to sort all these things out because they'll all get prosecuted or not prosecuted, but litigated, and they're going to go to court. They will get litigated for sure.”
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Explanation
Litigation over COVID-era workplace and safety disputes did proceed through the courts, but resolution took considerably longer than roughly one year in many cases, with some cases still pending years later.
SARS‑CoV‑2 (COVID‑19) will never be fully eradicated; it will remain an endemic virus circulating in the background indefinitely rather than reaching and staying at zero cases.
“we wouldn't let you know all the special rules and restrictions lift until there were zero cases of Covid. And we all know that's never going to happen. Covid will always be around in the background.”
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Explanation
COVID-19 has never been eradicated and remains endemic, circulating at low background levels years after 2021, consistent with the prediction.
Societal life (including comedy and open discussion about COVID) will return to a largely pre‑pandemic "normal" relatively quickly after June 2021.
“I think we're going to go back to normal pretty quick.”
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Explanation
Society did largely return to pre-pandemic normalcy over the following year or two, though 'pretty quick' undersold how the Delta and Omicron waves caused renewed disruptions through 2022.
By mid‑2021, the acute phase of the COVID‑19 crisis in the US is effectively over, contingent mainly on remaining people getting vaccinated.
“But anyway, this is all over. If you haven't gotten your goddamn vaccine, please get it.”
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Explanation
The acute phase of the COVID crisis was not over by mid-2021; the Delta variant drove a major surge in cases and hospitalizations later that summer and fall, contradicting the prediction.
California Governor Gavin Newsom and his allies will attempt to schedule or accelerate the 2021 recall election so that it occurs before the peak of the 2021 fire season in California.
“Newsom is so worried about fire season that they're going to try and accelerate the recall election. So it happens before there was, you know, the conventional wisdom, the conventional wisdom.”
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Explanation
The Newsom recall election was moved up and held on September 14, 2021, ahead of the traditional November recall timeline, consistent with an effort to get ahead of peak fire season.
The 2021 California wildfire season, relative to the time of recording in June 2021, will be extremely severe and "hellish" in terms of fire activity and impacts.
“I think we are in for a really hellish fire season”
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Explanation
The 2021 California wildfire season was indeed severe, including the massive Dixie Fire (the second-largest in state history at the time) and significant statewide impacts.
During 2021, the western United States will experience a terrible wildfire season along with electricity brownouts across many western states, and some regions in the US will experience grid or power‑supply problems similar in nature (though not necessarily identical in severity) to the Texas power crisis earlier in 2021.
“we're going to have a terrible fire season. Um, there's going to be brownouts probably throughout a lot of the western states. What played out in Texas that affected folks a few months ago, I think will some version of that will happen in many places in the US.”
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Explanation
2021 did bring a severe wildfire season and some western grid strain, but widespread rolling brownouts comparable to the February 2021 Texas grid crisis did not broadly recur across many US states that year.
The observed trend over the prior decade of each year being warmer than almost all preceding years (i.e., continuing global temperature increases) will persist into the near future rather than reversing.
“it's just going in the same place, I mean, and so if we're all of a sudden supposed to bet that a trend that has effectively been reliable for the last decade is going to turn, I'm not sure that that's a bet you'd want to make”
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Explanation
Global average temperatures continued their multi-decade warming trend in the years after 2021, with 2023 and 2024 each setting new global temperature records.