Fri, 14 Oct 2022 08:56:00 +0000
The All-In podcast hosts will hold a second All-In Summit conference in 2023.
“Well, you know, it's, uh, I think we're steering towards I think we're steering towards summit 2023.” View on YouTube
A second All-In Summit conference was held in 2023, in Miami.
Between roughly October 2022 and October 2023, the large U.S. Big Tech companies (specifically firms like Google, Facebook/Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft that historically provided the "big tech put" for startup talent) will experience significant declines in stock market value, employee headcount, and compensation/perks relative to their levels in October 2022.
“there is no longer the big tech put. Those are the generals that are about to get shot over the next 8 to 12 months, in my opinion in the public markets in terms of market cap and employment and perks.” View on YouTube
Big Tech did see significant stock declines and mass layoffs through early 2023, but most of the largest tech stocks recovered strongly later in 2023 on the AI rally, a mixed outcome relative to the full October 2022-October 2023 window.
Over the next period in which Western governments collectively spend the next $0.5–1.0 trillion in incremental fiscal outlays (starting from October 2022), the bulk of that money will be directed to subsidizing or stabilizing domestic economic/financial problems (e.g., pension systems, high-yield credit markets) rather than to financing new military adventurism in Russia.
“If I was a betting man, I spent, I would guess that the next half 1 trillion to $1 trillion that is spent in Western world economies will be to subsidize something that's broken internally inside of one of our countries, whether it's the UK pension system or whether it's the high yield credit markets. And it will not be to finance military adventurism in Russia.” View on YouTube
Western governments did direct substantial new fiscal spending toward domestic stabilization (banking, pensions) in this period, but the precise $0.5-1.0 trillion framing is difficult to independently verify.
Persistently higher inflation and structurally non-zero (elevated) interest rates over the next 10–20 years will materially reduce the incidence of new wars compared with the prior low-rate era, because higher rates make financing large-scale military conflicts much more difficult for governments.
“I think the most important thing that we can all be thankful for, which I think will prevent a lot of wars in the next 10 or 20 years, is inflation and non-zero interest rates.” View on YouTube
Multiple new or escalated wars (Israel-Hamas from October 2023, the Iran conflict in 2025) occurred despite persistently higher interest rates, contradicting the thesis that higher rates would suppress new conflicts.
As of mid-October 2022, the equity market has already put in a near-term bottom and is in a consolidation phase; subsequent bad inflation news will generally be interpreted by investors as already priced in, leading to dip-buying rather than new lows.
“we've effectively seen the near-term bottom and we're now consolidating. And so every opportunity people have to justify that most of the news is behind them. They take and they use that as a reason to buy.” View on YouTube
October 2022 turned out to be close to the actual bottom of the 2022 bear market, and subsequent bad inflation news was generally absorbed with dip-buying.
The US Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates to approximately 4.0–5.0% by the end of Q1 2023, and the bottom in the equity market will occur roughly around the October 2022 timeframe when he is speaking.
“we're going to have rates by 4 to 4, 50 to 5% probably within Q1. Which means if you're trying to figure out where the bottom is, it's roughly now ish.” View on YouTube
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to approximately 4.5-4.75% by the end of Q1 2023, matching the predicted range.
As long as interest rates are rising aggressively from the October 2022 baseline, the United States and its Western allies will not enter a new major war (beyond conflicts already underway such as support for Ukraine).
“My prediction is that we will not enter a new war with rates flexing up as aggressively as they are.” View on YouTube
The US and its allies became directly involved in new major conflicts (the Israel-Hamas war from October 2023, and the Iran conflict in 2025) even as rates rose aggressively, contradicting the prediction.