Fri, 05 May 2023 21:44:00 +0000
In the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia will not be militarily defeated or forced into an outcome it considers a loss; Russia will ultimately avoid losing the war in Ukraine.
“And the Russians cannot lose this war. We're being told they're losing. They cannot afford to lose this war.”
As of mid-2026, Russia has not been militarily defeated in Ukraine; it retains significant territorial control and the war has not ended in a clear Russian loss.
The U.S. Social Security system’s trust fund will be exhausted and effectively insolvent around 2034–2035, absent structural changes.
“Right now it's projected Social Security will go bankrupt in 2035, 20, 34 around that range.”
Social Security trust fund depletion remains projected for around 2033-2035 in subsequent Trustees' reports, consistent with the prediction.
If the United States does not significantly change its fiscal trajectory (deficits, debt, entitlements, and/or taxes), it will experience a massive economic or financial crisis within approximately 5–10 years from 2023 (by 2028–2033).
“Otherwise, we have this obviously kind of never ending debt spiral that's going to cause a massive crisis, whether it's not this year, maybe it's in five years or ten years.”
The US has not experienced a full-blown debt crisis as of mid-2026, though fiscal deficit and interest-expense concerns intensified considerably, keeping the underlying risk described in the prediction live but unresolved.
In the month following this May 5, 2023 recording, if Republicans and Democrats fail to reach agreement on the U.S. debt ceiling, the U.S. economy could suffer a severe negative shock ("go off a cliff") tied to a debt-ceiling-related crisis.
“And the the country's economy might go off a cliff in the next month because Republicans and Democrats can't agree.”
The May-June 2023 debt-ceiling standoff was resolved via the Fiscal Responsibility Act without the economy going 'off a cliff'; a default was avoided and no severe economic shock occurred.
The recommended U.S. childhood vaccination schedule, which he says was at 72 doses as of 2023, will increase to around 80 doses and will continue to grow beyond that, with no stabilization or reduction in the number of recommended childhood vaccine doses in the foreseeable future.
“And instead of three vaccines, we quickly ended up with 72. And now we're going to, you know, toward 80 right now. And there's no end in sight.”
For the indefinite future, no electric utility anywhere in the world will build a new commercial nuclear power plant without receiving large public subsidies; all new nuclear plants that get built will depend on substantial government financial support.
“I can tell you this, there is no public utility on the face of the earth that will build one of those plants without massive public subsidies. Not one. Nobody will ever do it.”
By the end of the 21st century (circa 2100), global primary energy production will need to be approximately 5–10 times higher than its 2023 level in order to support projected GDP-per-capita growth trends.
“if you look over nearly any historical time scale, since we've had industrial energy production on Earth, for every 1% increase in GDP per capita, you see a roughly 1.2% increase in energy consumption per capita. And so if you forecast out by the end of the century, the GDP per capita estimates in the US and around the world, we need to increase global energy production by roughly, you know, anywhere from 5 to 10 x.”
This is a century-long (to 2100) energy-demand projection that cannot be meaningfully evaluated this early.
By the middle of the 2030s (around 2035), there is a significant likelihood that the world will experience serious material shortages (e.g., critical minerals and inputs) that constrain the scaling of renewable energy technologies.
“And there appears to be, you know, a reasonable chance of a pretty serious material shortage for renewable sources by the middle of next decade.”
Critical mineral supply constraints for renewables (lithium, copper, rare earths) did emerge as a significant concern through the mid-2020s, partially consistent with the prediction, though a full-blown severe shortage crisis by the mid-2030s remains to be seen.
As Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gets more attention during his presidential campaign, major media organizations ("the media industrial complex") will actively work to limit or suppress the spread of his anti-establishment message.
“which is probably why the media industrial complex will not, you know, will do his best to prevent that message from getting out.”
RFK Jr. received substantial mainstream media coverage during his campaign and later as HHS Secretary, some critical and some not, making a clean 'media suppression' narrative hard to confirm.
Mainstream media outlets will oppose Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and systematically block or hinder his exposure across all major channels during his presidential campaign.
“The media is going to block this guy at every angle,”
RFK Jr. faced significant media scrutiny and criticism during his campaign, though he was not uniformly 'blocked' from major platforms; he ultimately gained a cabinet position as HHS Secretary.
In the 2024 U.S. election cycle, podcasts will become the primary or dominant communication channel through which unorthodox political candidates bypass traditional media to reach voters with their message.
“I think, in 2024. I think that podcast could break. Podcasts will be the way that unorthodox candidates get their message out.”
Long-form podcasts became a major and widely-credited channel for unorthodox 2024 candidates (RFK Jr., and notably Trump's own podcast tour) to reach voters directly.
Long-form podcast interviews will materially increase voter interest in and consideration of candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the 2024 election cycle, to the point where such appearances become an important driver of their public support relative to traditional media exposure.
“It could be the way the candidates get their message out, because if after two hours of this, you don't want to learn more about him or you're not going to consider him more fully, I think it's impossible because he's so well spoken.”
RFK Jr.'s podcast appearances did generate significant public interest, though his campaign ultimately ended with an endorsement of Trump rather than continuing as an independent contender, making the long-term voter-consideration effect hard to isolate.
For future episodes of the All-In podcast: Nikki Haley will appear as a guest; Donald Trump will also agree to appear as a guest; Joe Biden will not appear as a guest.
“So Nikki Haley is in, and then Trump will do it. And then Biden will not.”
Nikki Haley and Donald Trump both later made media and podcast appearances in various formats during the 2024 cycle, but no specific confirmation of all three predicted All-In podcast guest appearances (including Biden's absence) was found.