AI will be the defining political issue of the 2026 midterms and the next US presidential election.
“I obviously AI is I think going to be the defining political issue of the midterms and for sure the the next presidential election.”
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Explanation
AI has become a significant political topic including regulation, jobs, and safety debates, but whether it is 'the defining' issue of the 2026 midterms (versus economy, immigration, or healthcare) remains a subjective and not yet fully settled characterization.
Canada, the UK, and Australia will see increased political stability and predictability as a result of their under-16 social media bans, driven by a less radicalized youth electorate.
“I suspect if you start to see political stability and predictability in Canada, the UK, and Australia, you can put your finger right on this ban as the reason why.”
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Explanation
This is a forward-looking causal claim linking under-16 social media bans in Canada, the UK, and Australia to political stability that cannot be meaningfully assessed this soon after such bans took effect.
China's open-source AI models will reach Anthropic's Claude Fable-level capability before Q1 2027.
“the founder of Z.AI, he said that before Q1, they'll have fable level capability. I believe them”
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Explanation
This prediction has a Q1 2027 deadline for Chinese open-source models to reach Claude-comparable capability, which has not yet arrived.
Nvidia will launch a direct competitor to OpenAI in response to OpenAI building its own chips.
“Don't be surprised if Nvidia starts an OpenAI competitor. You heard it here first on allin.”
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Explanation
As of this validation, Nvidia has not launched a direct competitor product to OpenAI's consumer AI offerings, though the prediction has no fixed deadline making a final 'wrong' verdict premature.
DRAM will account for 30-40% of all hyperscaler capital expenditure next year (2027).
“Something I've been thinking about memory is DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40% of all hyperscaler capex next year.”
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Explanation
This is a forecast about 2027 hyperscaler capital expenditure allocation to DRAM that cannot yet be verified against actual full-year spending data.
China's CXMT will flood the global market with cheap consumer-grade DRAM after going public, easing the price pressure driving Apple's cost increases.
“CXMT is going public in China. They are going to they may be the cure for Apple's ills. They will flood the market with to some degree cheap consumer grade DRAM”
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Explanation
CXMT did complete a large IPO in July 2026, raising about $8.6 billion and becoming China's most valuable listed company, positioning it as a major new source of DRAM supply, consistent with easing memory price pressure, though 'curing Apple's ills' is a debatable overstatement.
Once Starship is fully reusable, launching a gigawatt of compute into orbit will cost about $5 billion, and within three to four years the cost of terrestrial gigawatt data centers will rise to roughly $70 billion versus roughly $40 billion for orbital compute, making orbital compute economically favorable.
“when Starship is reusable, it's going to cost $5 billion to put a gigawatt of compute into space... it may be that in three or four years it's 70 billion verse 40 billion”
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Explanation
Starship has not yet achieved full operational reusability at the scale needed to test these specific orbital-versus-terrestrial compute cost comparisons.
The share of proposed data center projects that face community/regulatory contestation, roughly 40% since 2021, will continue to increase.
“since 2021 about 40% of all data centers get contested, right? I think that number is going to go up.”
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Explanation
There is no clear, up-to-date tracking data confirming whether the rate of data center project contestation has continued rising beyond the roughly 40% baseline cited.
Anthropic is currently worth approximately $3 trillion on a private-market basis.
“I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today and it's very important.”
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Explanation
Anthropic's valuation as of mid-to-late 2026 was reported around $965 billion following its Series H round, with IPO targets discussed around $2 trillion, but it had not reached a $3 trillion valuation at the time this claim was made.
Gavin Baker
Wrong
attribution: medium
01:28:52
marketsaieconomy
Anthropic will end the year (2026) with an annualized revenue run rate well over $100 billion.
“They're going to end this year well over 100 billion.”
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Explanation
Anthropic's revenue run rate reached roughly $65 billion by late July 2026, and full-year 2026 actual revenue was estimated around $20-26 billion, both well short of the $100 billion annualized run-rate level predicted for year-end.