E68: Trudeau invokes emergency powers, Bitcoin vs. government, Tiger Global's new strategy & more

The use of emergency powers and bank-account freezes by Justin Trudeau against the Canadian trucker protest will politically backfire on him in the near term (e.g., significantly damage his popularity and/or lead to major political losses within the next 1–2 years).

“I think it's going to have the opposite effect. I think it's going to blow up in Trudeau's face.” View on YouTube

The Canadian government’s freezing of protest-related funds in early 2022 will drive a noticeable increase over the following few years in people holding part of their net worth in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (especially privacy-oriented coins) explicitly to keep assets outside of direct government control, and this effect will be greater for Bitcoin adoption than a major merchant like McDonald’s accepting Bitcoin would be.

“this will do more than McDonald's accepting bitcoin because this is the first time like a Western Democratic state is seizing people's funds like in an incredibly unfair, unnecessary way, which is just going to have more people say, you know what, maybe I should keep some of my net worth out of the government's purview if they're going to seize it anyway. And then now people are going to start looking into the coins that allow people to.” View on YouTube

Over the subsequent decade or two after 2022, state actions like freezing bank accounts and targeting crypto wallets (as in Canada) will accelerate global interest in and adoption of decentralized, "off-government-chain" cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin as a way to hold assets beyond direct state control.

“Bitcoin seems to be the resolution to that. And now you're seeing the ultimate challenge to Bitcoin and the challenge to decentralized systems like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and so on... I think you're right, it's probably going to accelerate interest in these kind of off government chain, if true, into some separate chain.” View on YouTube

Justin Trudeau will ultimately lose politically over this episode (e.g., lose his position as Prime Minister or lose his next general election) as a consequence of his handling of the 2022 trucker protests and Emergencies Act invocation.

“Such an unforced error. Like so dumb. He's gonna lose, right? Trudeau's gonna lose.” View on YouTube

Canadian provinces will end most or all COVID-19 mandates in the near term (within months of February 2022), rendering the trucker protest’s original policy demands largely moot.

“And meanwhile, all the provinces are ending Covid mandates anyway, so this whole issue is moot.” View on YouTube

Over the coming election cycles after 2022, Asian American voters will measurably shift away from the Democratic Party (toward Republicans or at least away from reliable Democratic support), driven in part by Democratic-backed policies perceived as a "war on merit" in education and declining public safety.

“this war on merit that's happening is something that is going to, you know, flip the Asian American community, I think, to” View on YouTube

San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin will be recalled in the June 7, 2022 election, and the "yes" vote to recall him will be extremely high, on the order of about 95% of votes cast.

“So he's got to I mean, if these people got out by 75% on average, he's going to be out by 95%.” View on YouTube

The broader social-justice-oriented "woke" movement in criminal justice and education (e.g., progressive DAs, equity-driven school reforms) will persist for years beyond 2022 rather than disappearing quickly in response to backlash in places like San Francisco.

“I think is not a movement that's going to go away overnight.” View on YouTube

(Via approving citation of Tyler Cowen) Wokeism has already peaked by early 2022 and will evolve over the coming years into a narrower subculture that is highly educated, disproportionately white, and fairly female, no longer capable of "running" the country or all major institutions.

“And I think that that probably does summarize sort of like where it starts, which is, I think, rooted in a very good place, but unfortunately, all too often where it ends, which is that sort of moral absolutist judgment, cancel culture around it.” View on YouTube

Following the rapid 2021–early-2022 crash in high-growth tech stocks, there will be a correspondingly fast reset (downward repricing) of late-stage private tech company valuations, occurring over the next several quarters rather than over many years.

“So now that we have that reset, it's pretty natural that there's going to be a very quick reset on the private market side.” View on YouTube

Within 1–2 years of early 2022, many highly valued late-stage private tech companies will be forced either to go public or raise capital at significantly lower valuations; if they IPO in that window, their market caps will be substantially below their last private valuations ("taken to the woodshed").

“at some point in the next year or two, these other companies have to get public. The hope is that the market catches back up so that you can defend the last valuation. And that's the that's the way that this stuff doesn't require a lot of pain. The problem is, if you're high, burn and you were counting on yet another successive round, or you're at a point in your life cycle where you need to go public in the next two years, if you go public, you will get taken to the woodshed.” View on YouTube

Valuations of late-stage SaaS companies that received large financings from Tiger Global at high multiples pre-2022 will decline materially over the ensuing period (e.g., 1–3 years) as markets reprice growth tech stocks.

“I think those valuations are going to come down.” View on YouTube

Tiger Global’s strategy of doing passive Series A investments in early-stage startups will succeed in attracting many founders in the coming years, because a significant number of entrepreneurs will prefer passive capital that is unlikely to challenge or remove them, even if this is not optimal for company quality.

“I think it's going to work, but not for the right reasons. The reason it'll work is there are way more entrepreneurs now than there are great entrepreneurs. And so of all of these entrepreneurs that exist, the idea of getting passive money where you won't get fired... So the CEO now, why would you take a $15 million series A check from Sequoia where they could fire you, whereas $15 million from Tiger, they may never call you.” View on YouTube

Within roughly 15 years from February 2022 (by ~2037), autologous induced stem cell therapies—where a patient’s own cells are reprogrammed into stem cells and used clinically not only for bone marrow transplants but for healing multiple tissue types—will be in practical therapeutic use.

“that's like, you know, 15 years out is, um, autologous induced stem cell therapy, where you actually make your own stem cells and then give yourself all sorts of therapies, not just bone marrow transplants, but you can heal lots of tissue in the body using these stem cell systems.” View on YouTube

In the few years following February 2022 (approximately by 2025–2027), hundreds of distinct cell-based therapies that were in late-stage clinical trials at that time will obtain regulatory approval and come to market globally, alongside gene-editing-based therapies.

“there are hundreds of cell based therapies coming to market over the next few years, they're all in late stage clinical trials as well as gene editing.” View on YouTube

At some future point (implicit multi-decade horizon), advances in tools such as induced stem cells, cell-based therapies, and gene editing will progress to the point that both cancer and biological aging are effectively ‘resolved’ as diseases in humans, analogous to how HIV has become a manageable or curable condition.

“I think hopefully. And I'm optimistic that one day we will look back at cancer and aging in the same way that we're talking about HIV today, and that both of those diseases can and will be resolved with the tools that we're developing through science.” View on YouTube