Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World

Between now and the end of 2026, the All-In team will host additional 200–500 person live events similar to the Miami F1 event, including at least one tied to another major sporting event such as F1 Austin, F1 Las Vegas, the Super Bowl, or the NBA Finals.

“Wonderful event. We're going to do it again. We're going to run it back, I think for maybe F1, Austin Vegas and we're going to and maybe Vegas. Who knows, maybe the Super Bowl, maybe NBA finals. We're going to do some more of these 200 to 500 person events.” View on YouTube

The fourth All-In Summit will take place as an in-person event in Los Angeles on September 7–9, 2025.

“Once I remind people that September 7th, eighth and ninth will be in Los Angeles. If you want to come hang with us like we did in F1 for the All In Summit the fourth year.” View on YouTube

The Federal Reserve will refrain from cutting interest rates (i.e., will not reduce the federal funds target range below 4.25–4.5%) through at least the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, despite emerging liquidity warning signs, due in part to political considerations related to President Trump.

“What I'm saying very directly is that the fed is acting in in a manner that is as much politically motivated as financially motivated… I think that if the fed really wanted to get ahead of it, they could cut. But the political overlay is cutting helps Trump. And I think there's this tension between these two people. And I think that the fed is saying we're not going to cut.” View on YouTube

Within the next 1–2 years (by mid-2027), U.S. trade tariffs introduced under Trump will be substantially rolled back or offset by a major deregulation-and-tax-cut package, such that the net economic drag from tariffs is largely neutralized, while AI compute growth (“tokens”) remains the primary driver of U.S. equity market upside.

“I feel now there's a chance, when you look at the next year or two, at some point tariffs goes away. Trump makes this big deal with deregulation. The tax breaks sort of cancel out the tariffs. We move on. And what are we left with. We're left with tokens.” View on YouTube

As AI tools are adopted in enterprises over the next several years (through roughly 2030), managerial roles will be among the first categories of white-collar jobs to be materially reduced or eliminated relative to individual contributor roles, due to AI-enabled automation of management decision-making.

“He gave us two anecdotes of how he personally has used some of these tools to make management decisions, and his observation was managers are the first to go.” View on YouTube

Within the next 1–2 years (by mid-2027), Google/Alphabet will undertake significant headcount reductions and implement a broad return-to-office mandate, framed as part of a more serious corporate push to respond to AI competition.

“I think they're going to cut a large number of employees, get people to return back to office and take this a little more seriously on a corporate level, because you got that sense from Sergey, who's in the office every day.” View on YouTube

If China and Canada continue to experience sharply reduced levels of investment and risk capital, then over the next 10–20 years (i.e., by roughly 2035–2045) their economies will stagnate and they will become relatively marginalized, “also-ran” countries in terms of growth and innovation compared to peers that maintain robust risk-capital investment.

“If you look, for example, in the last five year period in China or Canada, where both of them two totally different political regimes. But they both had the same thing happen, which is the the amount of investment capital that went into both of those countries fell off of a cliff for two totally separate reasons. What is interesting is going to be what is the downstream impact of that in ten and 15 and 20 years. And you can look historically back and we know what this looks like, which is countries stagnate in the absence of investment and risk capital. So you will become a marginalized also ran country.” View on YouTube

Given the current low level of exits and corresponding returns, venture capital funding volumes will decline in the near-to-medium term as limited partners reduce commitments to the asset class, representing a normalization of the market to match the underlying pace of economic growth and innovation.

“ultimately, shouldn't the exit volume define the amount of capital that LPs should invest in this asset class to get a return that compensates them for the illiquidity relative to public markets with the same kind of risk levels? At the end of the day, it is what it is, and you're going to see a reduction in venture dollars. And that's just the market normalizing the the economy only grows and only innovates at a certain pace, maybe is what the data shows.” View on YouTube