Between mid-2023 and the subsequent few years, U.S. residential real estate prices will undergo a significant downward correction (i.e., broad price declines versus 2022 peak levels) as higher interest rates work through the system.
“I think that as this washes through the system, you could see a big correction in the values of residential real estate, which is most people's main asset.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
US residential real estate prices did not undergo a significant broad-based correction in the years following mid-2023; national home price indices continued rising due to persistently constrained housing supply, even as higher mortgage rates reduced transaction volume.
By sometime in 2025, U.S. multifamily commercial real estate will experience clear, broad-based distress (e.g., elevated defaults, workouts, or forced sales), comparable to the existing distress in office, among developers who need to refinance in 2023–2025.
“I think you're going to see again, not just in paired office space now impaired multifamily. And there is not, I think, a sector of real estate developer who is not in distress right now if they need financing in the next year or two.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Multifamily commercial real estate did experience real distress in various markets by 2024-2025 amid high rates and oversupply in some Sun Belt metros, but this did not reach the broad, universal severity across the sector predicted here, with performance varying significantly by market.
Political pressure from widespread housing/real-estate pain will cause the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates earlier than it otherwise would have, i.e., initiating rate cuts sooner than the then-prevailing market consensus for 2024 and beyond.
“So my only point in that was just more that this could actually if the fed is susceptible to political pressure, I think this is the kind of thing that pressures them to move forward, the point at which they start cutting and to start to let go the release valve, just because there's just too much pressure in the system if you let the stock build.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
The Fed did begin cutting rates in September 2024, and housing-market and broader economic pressures were cited as contributing factors, but it is difficult to isolate housing-specific political pressure as the decisive or primary driver versus the Fed's broader dual-mandate reasoning around labor-market softening.
Even if the Federal Reserve reduces the federal funds rate to roughly 3–4% in 2024, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield will not necessarily decline commensurately and may remain elevated (around mid‑4% or higher), meaning long-term real-estate financing costs will not materially ease in 2024.
“even if the fed does cut rates next year, the rate that the fed cuts is the short rate... Even if they cut that to call it 3 to 4% next year, there's no guarantee that the ten year rate... will move down... and that rate may not come down.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Even after the Fed cut short-term rates starting in September 2024, the 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated (often above 4%, and rising at times through 2025) rather than declining commensurately, keeping long-term real-estate financing costs high, consistent with this prediction.
Through roughly the end of 2024, most U.S. real estate developers who need to refinance projects will face significantly worse loan terms (lower loan‑to‑value, higher rates, additional collateral or guarantees) compared with their prior financing.
“this is something that's going to be afflicting pretty much every real estate developer needs to refinance in the next year or so”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Real estate developers needing to refinance in 2023-2024 broadly did face substantially worse loan terms (higher rates, lower proceeds, additional recourse or collateral requirements) than in prior years amid tighter lending conditions.
For at least the near term after August 2023, portions of the commercial real-estate debt market will effectively seize up, with many proposed syndicated CRE loans receiving no bids at any reasonable rate from typical institutional funders.
“these guys I know that work in commercial real estate debt said they're putting out these syndicated loan proposals to the typical funders, and there's no bid... There is no rate. There's just no bid.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Parts of the commercial real estate lending market did see reduced liquidity and higher spreads through late 2023, but a complete, sustained absence of any bids for syndicated CRE loans across the broader market is difficult to confirm as the general state of affairs beyond isolated periods of acute stress.
By 6–12 months after August 18, 2023 (i.e., by February–August 2024), Donald Trump will no longer be an active candidate in the 2024 presidential race, and the Republican primary will effectively be a three-way contest among Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Ron DeSantis, with Christie and Ramaswamy having surged in support.
“I believe that you're going to see Chris Christie and Vivek Serge. It's going to be a three horse race with DeSantis, and I think Trump's going to be out of the race in the next 6 to 12 months.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Donald Trump remained the dominant Republican frontrunner throughout the 2023-2024 primary season and won the nomination outright; he was never sidelined from the race, and neither Chris Christie nor Vivek Ramaswamy came close to leading a three-way race with DeSantis, both dropping out before the New Hampshire primary.
As a consequence of the indictments and ensuing political dynamics, the 2024 cycle will result in an extreme outcome for Donald Trump: he will either be elected president again or be convicted and receive a prison sentence, rather than ending up with an intermediate outcome such as quietly exiting politics without conviction or nomination.
“what Democrats are doing with this partisan Lawfare is that they are polarizing the outcomes. They're either going to send Donald Trump to the big House or to the white House.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Trump won the 2024 presidential election and was not convicted or imprisoned before taking office (his New York hush-money conviction resulted in an unconditional discharge with no prison time, and other federal cases were dropped or delayed), so the predicted binary of 'White House or prison' partially held only in the sense that he won, not because the extreme framing was necessary.
Republican voters and elites rallying around Donald Trump in response to the indictments will ensure that he wins the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
“Of course, they're rallying around him. It's ensuring that he will be the nominee.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Republican voters and party elites did rally strongly around Trump following his indictments, and he went on to win the 2024 Republican nomination decisively.
Within the 2024 election cycle, the Republican Party will formally or effectively break with Donald Trump (e.g., by withdrawing support or otherwise sidelining him) rather than continuing to back him as the party’s standard-bearer.
“I think they're going to cut ties. I think the Republican Party is going to expel him.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
The Republican Party did not break with or expel Trump; instead, the party consolidated firmly behind him, and he won both the nomination and the general election.
At some point before Jeff Bezos dies, he will run for public office, specifically including a run for U.S. president as a serious candidate.
“I think Jeff Bezos will run in his lifetime”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Jeff Bezos had not run for public office as of this validation, and since this prediction spans the remainder of his lifetime, it cannot yet be conclusively resolved either way.