Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

By roughly 2035–2045, global energy supply from nuclear, natural gas, and solar will be abundant enough that long-term demand (and thus structural pricing power) for oil will be significantly reduced compared to the 2020s, weakening the ‘net long bid’ for oil as an asset.

“Eventually, in the ten or 15 or 20 year time frame, you'll have an abundance of electrons from nuclear. In the meantime, you have an abundance of electrons from that gas. You have an abundance of electrons, frankly, from solar. And all of these things will ultimately diminish the net long bid to oil.” View on YouTube

By the end of November 2025, the Trump administration and China will announce a formal ‘China deal’ that includes some new arrangement or statement affecting the Taiwan issue (e.g., an updated or clarified form of strategic ambiguity).

“well, and not to mention we're probably going to have at least the rumors are that there could be a China deal coming up at the end of this month or into next month. And if we could resolve the issues with Taiwan, even something like strategic ambiguity.” View on YouTube

Prediction market Polymarket is implying that by October 31, 2025, 100% of the remaining Israeli hostages from the Gaza conflict will have been released and returned alive.

“Polymarket showing a 90% chance, 90% chance that all Israeli hostages will be returned by the end of the month, which would be just tremendous.” View on YouTube

If the Trump administration continues its then-current approach to violent ICE raids and National Guard deployments through the midterm election cycle, Democrats will win the midterm elections by a large margin (a ‘shellacking’ of Republicans) in terms of seats gained in Congress and overall popular vote.

“because what's at stake is the midterms. The Democrats are going to shellac the Republicans in the midterms if this continues.” View on YouTube

For the current Trump term’s annual deportations (on the order of 300,000–400,000 removals per year), approximately one-third of those deported in the upcoming stats releases will be individuals who self-reported/self-deported rather than being forcibly detained in raids.

“Yet I think we'll see that in the statistics that of the 3 or 400,000 people we wind up deporting, probably a third of them are going to be people who self-reported.” View on YouTube

Throughout calendar year 2026, essentially all shipped AI GPUs (notably from Nvidia and AMD) will be actively deployed and utilized; there will be no significant unused (‘dark’) GPU capacity sitting idle in data centers.

“There is not a dark GPU in the world today. The question? There's not going to be a dark GPU in the world next year.” View on YouTube

Through at least the end of calendar year 2026, effectively all installed GPUs suitable for AI workloads will be actively utilized (i.e., there will be no significant idle or surplus GPU capacity analogous to 1990s dark fiber).

“There's not going to be a dark GPU in the world next year.” View on YouTube

OpenAI (or its associated infrastructure partners) will operate at least one data center of roughly 10 gigawatts of power capacity by around 2030 (approximately five years from the 2025 recording date), following an intermediate ramp through ~2–3 GW in 2026–2027 and ~5 GW in the subsequent couple of years.

“So you could get to a ten gigawatt in, I don't know, probably five years, something like that.” View on YouTube

Global incremental revenue attributable to generative AI will be roughly $100 billion in 2026 and will exceed $1 trillion per year by 2030.

“We see about $100 billion already in incremental generative AI revenue in 2026. That has to grow to well over a trillion by 2030.” View on YouTube

OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate will exceed $20 billion by the end of 2025, could reach approximately $50 billion in 2026, and approximately $100 billion in 2027.

“They'll, they'll, they'll exit this year at over 20 billion run rate. I think there are a lot of people who think they could hit 50 next year and 100 after that.” View on YouTube

If the US does not impose heavy new AI‑specific regulatory burdens, AI and its related build‑out will help drive US real GDP growth to approximately 4–5% annually over the next few years (roughly the late‑2020s period).

“If we go down that path, we could sabotage this if we just allow it to happen, if we allow the innovators to do what they do best. I think this is going to drive 4 or 5% GDP growth for the next few years.” View on YouTube

The BRICS bloc will not launch a functional, widely used gold‑backed settlement currency for international trade within the next few years (i.e., before roughly 2028).

“This trend really started during the Biden administration with the Ukraine war... And just by the way, when the BRICs talk about this currency that they're going to develop... that might be part of what's driving this as well. That's a very long term project by the BRICs countries. I don't think we're going to see anything in the next few years.” View on YouTube

Polymarket will become legally available for real‑money trading by users in the United States sometime during calendar year 2025.

“It looks like Polymarket will be launched in the US imminently. There's actually a Polymarket for Polymarket being available in the US for trades... 98% chance now that Polymarket will go live in the US in 2025.” View on YouTube