Between roughly July 2023 and December 2024, the US equity market will put in its cyclical bottom, and from that bottom the broad equity market will move materially higher, even if interest rates remain persistently higher rather than returning to near‑zero levels.
“I think right now in the next sort of like 12 to 18 months, is really when the bottom is put into the market... And I think the market is set to go materially higher, even if rates are persistently higher for a while.”
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Explanation
The US equity market bottomed around October 2023 and rallied materially higher through 2024 despite interest rates remaining elevated.
From mid‑2023 through the end of 2024, the US will avoid entering a recession (i.e., achieve a soft landing), and the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates sometime in 2024.
“over the last few weeks is just more and more evidence that it could be a soft landing, that we may not have a recession and we might even get rate cuts next year.”
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Explanation
The US avoided a recession (a soft landing), and the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates starting in September 2024.
Following Ripple’s partial court win against the SEC (if it ultimately holds through appeals), crypto projects and companies will increasingly choose to litigate against the SEC rather than settle, leading to a wave of counter‑lawsuits challenging the SEC’s positions.
“And, you know, if people can feel a little bit more secure in it now, are we going to see like ten counter lawsuits and everybody is just going to sue the SEC and stand up for themselves? I think that's what's going to happen now if ripple wins this or if this ripple thing does work out, appeals, whatever.”
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Explanation
Ripple did secure a partial win against the SEC and broader crypto litigation against the SEC increased, but a clean "wave of counter-lawsuits" as specifically framed is a stretch.
David Sacks
Partly Right
01:01:56
marketspoliticsgovernment
If Ripple’s favorable ruling against the SEC stands, the default strategy for crypto companies facing SEC actions will shift to refusing settlements and fighting cases in court.
“Then for sure, the standard operating procedure is I don't want to know settlements.”
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Explanation
Some crypto companies did shift toward fighting SEC actions in court, but others continued to settle; not a clean industry-wide shift.
In future SEC challenges related to crypto‑sector M&A deals, companies will increasingly reject settlement offers and instead litigate those cases in court, making aggressive legal defense the norm for such M&A transactions.
“And I think that's what M&A is going to happen. All M&A, it's like well now the settlement is off the table. We're going to fight.”
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Explanation
Similar mixed evidence: some crypto-sector M&A-adjacent SEC disputes were litigated rather than settled, but not uniformly across the sector.
U.S. industrial production capacity for 155mm artillery shells will be increased to approximately 90,000 shells per month sometime between 2025 and 2028.
“They've scaled that to somewhere Between 20 and 30,000 a month now, and they're saying that they will get to about 90,000 in somewhere between 2025 and 2028.”
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Explanation
The US Army significantly ramped 155mm artillery shell production toward roughly 100,000 rounds per month by around 2025, closely matching the predicted trajectory and timeframe.
Exceptionally high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic will cause the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season (the 2023 season, given the July 2023 recording date) to be the most active hurricane season on record in terms of storm activity severity or count.
“We were talking about what to talk about, as you guys know. I said, hey, we could talk about the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. That's likely going to drive the biggest hurricane season we've ever seen this coming season.”
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Explanation
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was above-average (20 named storms) but was not the most active on record; that record remains 2020 with 30 named storms.