Within roughly 20–30 years from 2021 (i.e., by 2041–2051), the United States will see the emergence of a more competent and sophisticated authoritarian-style populist leader (“American strongman or strong woman”) who is more effective than Donald Trump at building and maintaining mass support while avoiding many of his obvious flaws.
“over the next 20 or 30 years, these polarizing figures will become crisper, sharper, smarter. You know, they'll find a way to foment all of all of the support without any of the long tail shittiness that Trump figured out like Trump was. You know, he's like a beta test of an idea, right? He was like version 0.1. Wait till we see version 1.0 of the American Strongman or Strong Woman. It's really going to be fucking scary.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
This is a 20-30 year-forward (2041-2051) prediction about the emergence of a more sophisticated authoritarian populist figure that cannot be assessed this early.
Within a relatively short period after February 2021 (i.e., “very soon”), public reaction in San Francisco to rising crime and DA Chesa Boudin’s policies will trigger a political reversal toward tougher public-safety policies (e.g., successful recall efforts or election of more traditional prosecutors) that curtails the current trend toward increased lawlessness.
“everything looks exponential until it cycles back, so, you know, you're only going to have so much, um, evolution to Gotham in San Francisco until enough people put their hands in the air and say, okay, you know, time for a change. Let's go back and let's start fixing this.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
San Francisco did see a significant political backlash against permissive criminal-justice policies, exemplified by the successful June 2022 recall of DA Chesa Boudin, consistent with this prediction of a political reversal toward tougher public-safety policies.
The Los Angeles Times newspaper is very likely to cease to exist as a distinct operating entity within approximately 4–5 years of February 2021 (i.e., by sometime in 2025–2026), either by shutting down or being absorbed in a way that ends it as a standalone publication.
“there’s a Wall Street Journal alert. Um, for the owner of the LA times who's about to sell the times, like it's very likely that the times in 4 or 5 years doesn't even exist.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
The Los Angeles Times continued operating as a standalone publication through 2025-2026 (despite ownership turmoil, financial struggles, and major staff cuts under owner Patrick Soon-Shiong), rather than ceasing to exist as an entity within the predicted 4-5 year window.
By May–June 2021, COVID-19 vaccination coverage in the United States will be high enough that a substantial share of people will choose to fly on airplanes without wearing masks and will feel comfortable doing so, independent of formal rules.
“it feels to me like we're probably May June when enough people are vaccinated that we can have, you know, a circumstance where people are going to fly without masks and be comfortable doing so.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
US federal air travel mask mandates were lifted only in April 2022, later than the May-June 2021 timeframe predicted, though voluntary mask-free flying was already common among vaccinated travelers by mid-2021 in many contexts.
Even after COVID-19 vaccines become widely available and administered in the US (through at least mid-2021), many schools will remain closed and a significant portion of people will continue to avoid activities such as flying and other normal social behaviors due to persistent fear and restrictive rules.
“But but the issue is really going to be like, how do you break through these rules? And the fear that basically I… I'm concerned that we're not going to end up in a more civil state. Schools aren't opening. People aren't flying. People aren't doing stuff even after vaccinations.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Many schools and social activities did remain constrained by pandemic caution well into and beyond mid-2021, with widespread persistent restrictions and hesitancy continuing into the 2021-2022 school year in many US regions.
In the United States, life and economic activity will be broadly 'back to normal' by April 2021 as people resume normal behavior once they see others doing so.
“People will jump back in. I think it's April. David, to your point of when this goes back to normal.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
US life and economic activity did not return to fully 'normal' by April 2021; substantial restrictions, mask mandates, and cautious behavior persisted well beyond that date into mid-to-late 2021.
All four regular hosts of the All-In podcast will have received a COVID-19 vaccine by April 1, 2021.
“Let's just do let's end on this. Pick a date. When you think all four besties are vaccinated, I'm gonna say April 1st.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Vaccine eligibility expanded rapidly in the US during March 2021, and all four hosts plausibly could have been vaccinated by April 1, 2021 given their access and resources, though there is no public confirmation of the specific date each host was vaccinated.
By roughly March 15, 2021 (30 days from this February 2021 recording), there will be enough U.S. states with broadly open COVID-19 vaccination that any of the four podcast hosts could choose to travel and get vaccinated there.
“there's enough places now that have open VAX or Will in the next 30 days you can go get vaccinated.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
By mid-March 2021, numerous US states had already opened vaccine eligibility broadly, and inter-state vaccine tourism was a documented phenomenon during this period.
Within six weeks of this late-February 2021 recording (i.e., by early April 2021), COVID-19 vaccine supply in the United States will exceed the capacity of the existing restrictive prioritization rules, leading many of those restrictions to be relaxed or abandoned.
“in six weeks, I think a lot of those restrictions are going to fall by the wayside because the supply is going to outstrip the nonsensical, you know, restrictions and prioritization methods we put in place.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
US vaccine supply did increase substantially and many state prioritization tiers were relaxed or eliminated by April 2021 as eligibility opened to all adults in many states ahead of the federal May 2021 deadline.
By May 2021, the United States will have an oversupply of COVID-19 vaccine doses, with available doses exceeding public demand for vaccination.
“We are going to be oversupplied by May. We are going to have far more shots than there will be demand.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
By May 2021, the US did experience a vaccine oversupply relative to demand, as vaccination rates slowed significantly and many states struggled to use their allotted doses, consistent with this prediction.
By the year 2050, a majority of manufactured goods (materials, food, and other products) will be produced using bio-manufacturing with genetically engineered biological organisms rather than traditional industrial manufacturing methods.
“I think it's a multi-decade I think by 2050, you know, we should see, um, most of our goods that are manufactured rather than being made in the traditional sense... really shift to a new model of manufacturing where we use a smarter machine, which is a biological organism, to make stuff.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
This is a year-2050 projection about bio-manufacturing displacing traditional manufacturing that cannot be evaluated this early.