Sat, 31 May 2025 20:00:00 +0000
By approximately 10 years from the podcast date (around 2035), the occupation of cab driver (human-driven taxis as a job category) will largely cease to exist.
“We all agree on that. We're seeing robo taxis start to hit the streets. I don't think anybody believes that being a cab driver is going to exist as a job ten years from now.” View on YouTube
The predicted roughly-2035 horizon has not yet been reached.
Within two years of the podcast date (by around May 2027), unemployment driven by AI will not reach on the order of 20% of the workforce; in particular, scenarios where roughly 20% of workers are unemployed due to AI adoption will not materialize.
“I just think this idea that, boom, 20% of the workforce is going to be unemployed in two years, I just don't think that it's going to work that way.” View on YouTube
The predicted two-year (to roughly May 2027) window has not yet fully elapsed, though no 20%-scale AI-driven unemployment spike has occurred so far.
For the upcoming Q2 (the quarter immediately following this May 2025 recording), U.S. real GDP growth will be greater than 3.0% but less than 4.0% annualized.
“What you're probably going to see in Q2 is a really hot GDP print. If I'm a betting man, which I am, I think the GDP print is going to come in above three. Not quite four, but above three.” View on YouTube
US real GDP growth for Q2 2025 came in within the predicted 3-4% range per BEA reporting.
Even assuming permitting and technology de‑risking proceed successfully, commercially operating small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) in the U.S. will not be online before approximately 2035; widespread SMR deployment is at least a decade away from 2025.
“We all talk about smrs small modular reactors. The reality is that if you get everything permitted and you believe the technology can be de-risked, you're still in a 2035 plus time frame, you're a decade away.” View on YouTube
The predicted 2035 SMR deployment horizon has not yet been reached.
As of 2025, any newly initiated (unplanned) natural-gas power plant project in the U.S. will require at least about four years before it can begin commercial operation.
“If you have an unplanned nat gas plant today, the fastest you could get that on is four years from now.” View on YouTube
New natural-gas power plant projects have widely faced multi-year turbine and permitting backlogs consistent with the roughly four-year timeline predicted.
For the three currently mothballed but restartable nuclear reactors in the U.S., the earliest realistic restart dates fall between 2027 and 2030.
“If we tried to restart a mothballed nuclear reactor, of which there are only three, we can restart, that's a 2027 to 2030 time frame.” View on YouTube
The predicted 2027-2030 restart window has not yet been reached.
By the year 2032, the U.S. Social Security system will reach a point of functional insolvency (i.e., trust fund depletion or equivalent), triggering either higher taxes and/or inflationary policies that shift the cost burden onto younger generations.
“we have until 2032, when Social Security will be functionally bankrupt and everyone's going to get overtaxed and kids are going to end up having to pay through inflation for the benefits of retirees of the last generation.” View on YouTube
The predicted 2032 Social Security insolvency date has not yet been reached, though it remains broadly consistent with SSA trustees' projections.