By December 31, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield will exceed 5.0%, and the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield will exceed 6.25% (and may reach up to ~6.5%) if current escalation trends since Liberation Day persist.
“Today, the ten year is around 4.5% at the rate in which it's escalating since Liberation Day. By the end of this year, we're going to be past 5%. The 30 year is on a rate now to get past six and a quarter, maybe even reach 6.5%.”
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Explanation
Treasury yields moved the opposite direction from the prediction: the 10-year yield was around 4.06-4.43% and the 30-year around 4.68-4.96% through mid-to-late 2025, well below the predicted 5.0% and 6.25% thresholds by December 31, 2025.
If the current House version of the ‘big beautiful bill’ passes the Senate and becomes law with no material fiscal tightening, then within 60–90 days of passage bond markets will have re-underwritten U.S. fiscal risk at prevailing real rates (around 5–5.5% for long-dated Treasuries) and will react negatively, i.e., with higher required yields and/or visible signs of stress in U.S. Treasury demand.
“If it looks like it passes as is then that's what they'll do. And to your point, David, we'll know in the next 60 to 90 days.”
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Explanation
Given that yields declined rather than spiked through the second half of 2025, there was no visible bond-market stress or re-underwriting of fiscal risk at higher rates in the 60-90 days after the bill's passage.
Within 12 months of this May 2025 episode (i.e., by May 2026), Google will make its AI-mode experience the default front-door search interface for a large share of its existing search users, rather than traditional ten-blue-links search, as a result of ongoing A/B testing and rollout.
“I suspect it will be done in less than a year. And for a large swath of users, they are going to put AI in the front door. I think that's a fait accompli.”
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Explanation
Confirmed within the predicted window: Google made Gemini 3.5 Flash the default AI Mode experience globally on May 19, 2026, just under 12 months after this May 2025 episode, with AI Mode surpassing 1 billion monthly users.
When OpenAI and Jony Ive ultimately reveal their hardware device, its primary form factor will be either a wearable pendant or smart glasses (i.e., not a phone, puck, desktop device, etc.).
“It's definitely going to be a pendant or glasses. It's got to be those two form factors.”
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Explanation
OpenAI's Jony Ive-designed hardware device had not been publicly revealed as of this check (expected H2 2026), and the most credible leaks point to a screenless smart speaker as the primary device rather than a pendant or glasses, though earbud/pen/glasses concepts remain in development as secondary form factors.