E89: GDP growth negative in Q2, $SHOP layoffs, Alzheimer's fraud, Ginkgo acquires Zymergen & more

The U.S. recession that began by mid‑2022 will likely have a temporary bounce in GDP in Q3 2022, followed by a return to recessionary conditions (a "double‑dip" recession).

“Listen, listen, we're in a recession. It started. It might be a shallow recession. We don't know yet... It might turn out we might have a bounce in Q3. This might be more of a double dip. I suspect that's what it'll be.” View on YouTube

The Federal Reserve will largely finish raising interest rates by the end of 2022 and will likely begin cutting rates in the second half of 2023.

“So what he effectively did in one speech is basically put a pin at the end of this year and is telling the markets I'm mostly going to be done. And if anything, I'm probably going to be cutting in the back half of 23.” View on YouTube

Having crossed roughly 5% of new car sales, electric vehicle adoption in the U.S. has passed the critical tipping point and will continue transitioning from early adopters to broad mass‑market adoption from 2022 onward (i.e., EV share of new car sales will keep rising materially rather than stalling or reversing).

“There was a lot of, um, analysis that's been done on consumer adoption patterns. And typically for a new good or service, the tipping point is around 5% mass market adoption from when it goes from early adopters to the mass market, and EVs just crossed 5%. So to his point, the historical data would tell you that we're now past the critical point where it's no longer questionable. Now it's just going to happen.” View on YouTube

By the end of the 21st century, market- and technology-driven changes in sectors such as animal agriculture, transportation, and energy will have resolved the major factors driving anthropogenic climate change (i.e., these industrial systems will be substantially transformed so that their net contribution to climate change is no longer an existential threat).

“I am an eternal optimist. But in this particular case, I think that this century, much of what we're throwing our hands about and remember at the beginning of the 20th century, we thought we were going to run out of food... It is a matter of time and a matter of natural evolution that we will resolve all of the factors that are driving climate change, from animal agriculture to transportation systems to energy systems. These are all going to get completely rewritten.” View on YouTube

If the Democratic Republic of the Congo proceeds with auctioning oil rights and uses the resulting fossil-fuel revenue without large-scale pilfering, then within roughly one generation (~20–30 years) the country’s economic situation will be dramatically improved, with significantly higher national productivity enabled by investments in health care and education.

“But the reality is in one generation, what will happen is they will feed the world's desire for fossil fuels that will generate a lot of revenue. Hopefully it doesn't get pilfered. And so it gets invested in health care and education. And within a generation, this country could be in a completely different situation, allowing the productivity of that entire population of that country to do what they think is right.” View on YouTube

If U.S. interest rates remain around 3% on the 10‑year Treasury, the federal government will incur on the order of $1 trillion per year in debt service, and the U.S. will be in a prolonged era of fiscal austerity that will last beyond 2022 and extend past the current (Biden) presidential term ending January 2025.

“If interest rates stay at this. Call it 3% level, which is roughly where the ten year T-bills been. You know, bouncing around at that is a lot of debt service, $1 trillion a year of debt service. So I think we're probably entering an era, an overall era of austerity that lasts more than just this year or even this presidency.” View on YouTube

The November 2022 U.S. midterm elections will be a wave election (strongly favoring one party, implied to be Republicans), in which party affiliation matters more than candidate quality, resulting in some MAGA-aligned or "crazy" candidates winning office who otherwise would not win in a normal year.

“This year, I think this November is likely to be a wave election. And when you get a wave election, the specific candidate matters less and party matters more. So you could get some of these crazy swept into office.” View on YouTube

If Donald Trump runs for president in the 2024 cycle, he will secure and "lock up" the Republican Party nomination, likely within roughly 12–18 months from this July 2022 conversation (i.e., by early 2024).

“Given what you've said about being disgusted by, like, the um, you know, uh, denying, uh, you know, this voter fraud conspiracy stuff by Trump or whatever, if Trump wins the nomination, which I think he will, uh, how are you going to be able to when we're on the show a year from now and Trump has the nomination or, you know, 18 months from now, whenever it is that he locks it up and he will lock it up if he runs.” View on YouTube

Contrary to Jason’s view, Donald Trump will not end up securing the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, even though he may run.

“I don't think so.” View on YouTube

Jeff Bezos will not receive the Democratic Party’s nomination for U.S. president in any foreseeable future election cycle, even if he were to choose to run.

“Even if Bezos were dumb enough to run for president. I think he's too smart to do that. The Democratic Party would never nominate him.” View on YouTube