E47: Facebook's week from hell, Ellen Pao on sexism in Elizabeth Holmes coverage, Newsom's win, frauds & more

The 2021 Gavin Newsom recall effort will materially affect the candidate fields in future California gubernatorial races: (1) it will influence which candidates choose to run in Newsom's regular re-election in 2023/2024, and (2) it will change which Democrats run for governor in the subsequent open-cycle four years later (around 2027/2028), compared with the candidate fields that would have emerged absent the recall.

“The implications of this recall, I think are really important. Um, and I think it plays out in who runs, uh, in two years when, um, Newsom is up for reelection. And absolutely, it'll change. Who runs on the Democratic side in four years?” View on YouTube

For roughly the next couple of decades after 2021, progressive Democratic candidates in U.S. cities and states they control will routinely frame their campaigns around opposition to Donald Trump and 'Trumpism,' branding their opponents as Trump-like or Trumpist regardless of the opponent's actual alignment, rather than primarily running on local governance issues (crime, homelessness, school quality).

“what you've already seen in the days since the recall is that Gavin Newsom has now laid out the strategy for all progressives in like even from San Francisco to anywhere in the country of how they're going to run and what they're going to do is this that no matter how bad things get in terms of crime, in terms of homelessness, in terms of quality of schools in cities and states that they have complete control over. They're always going to campaign against Trump and Trumpism, and they're going to demonize and otherize whoever the candidate is on the other side as a Trumpist, whether they are or not, that's going to be the playbook from now on.” View on YouTube

If the Republican Party continues to embrace the 'stolen election' myth through the 2022 election cycle, that issue will significantly harm Republican electoral performance in the 2022 U.S. midterm elections (i.e., it will be a major contributing factor to Republican losses or underperformance).

“this election, the stolen election myth, has become an albatross for Republicans. They have to get off that. Um, I think it's ridiculous that's going to bring him down in 2022.” View on YouTube

Following the 2021 Wall Street Journal revelations about Instagram's internal research on teen mental health, there will be multiple legal and regulatory actions against Facebook/Instagram: (1) U.S. state attorneys general will file lawsuits and support class actions alleging harms such as eating disorders, anxiety, or related mental health issues in minors caused or exacerbated by these apps; and (2) governments in other countries (e.g., in Europe or Asia) will initiate their own investigations or actions based on these issues, within a few years after 2021.

“are we really willing to bet that now there are not 50 individually ambitious, politically ambitious state AGS licking their chops, reading this stuff, wondering how many kids in their state may have suffered from an eating disorder or anxiety and blame it on one of these apps, of course. Are we are we convinced that not a single lawsuit will get filed? Are we convinced that there's not going to be any class action? And by the way, that's just the United States. What is somebody that's sitting around a, you know, around a table of politicians desks in, you know, Germany, Belgium, uh, France, Thailand, uh, they're going to find their issue in this treasure trove of content that's being, you know, continuously drip fed out to the public.” View on YouTube

Within the next several years after 2021, it is plausible that the U.S. FDA (or a comparable federal health regulator) will assert regulatory authority over social media platforms like Instagram on the basis of mental health and eating-disorder impacts on users, in a manner analogous to how it has acted against products like Juul; i.e., social media products could be subjected to FDA-style public-health regulation.

“what's crazy here is, you know, the FDA could actually act like if the FDA is willing to act on Juul. What is the difference if the FDA says they feel like, let's just assume that somebody in the FDA says, we feel like we should have a responsibility to think about mental health and eating disorders.” View on YouTube

For people of their generation (middle-aged adults in 2021), typical lifespans will extend such that it is very likely they will live into their 100s (age 100+).

“here's the thing we are living longer and longer than ever. It is very likely that we're all going to live to our hundreds.” View on YouTube

Over time following the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, the dominant view among the American public will be relief that the war is over, and the graphic images of people clinging to planes during the withdrawal will largely fade from public salience, provided there is no new large-scale terrorist attack on the United States comparable to 9/11.

“I think that's I think that'll ultimately I think people are going to forget those images of people on planes and just think, thank God that's over. I think now that there hasn't been Ben 20, you know, and hopefully there's not another nine over 11.” View on YouTube