Sat, 23 Apr 2022 06:10:28 +0000
Bob Chapek will lose his job as CEO of Disney before the end of calendar year 2022 as a result of the political and employee-activism controversy in Florida.
“I don't think he's going to survive the year after what just happened at Disney.” View on YouTube
Confirmed: Bob Chapek was ousted as Disney CEO in November 2022, before year-end, with Bob Iger reinstated in his place.
Within the next few quarters after April 2022 (i.e., by roughly mid-2023), public-company CEOs will have clear, quantifiable business evidence from cases like Disney and Netflix showing that focusing on mission (like Coinbase’s approach) creates more shareholder value than accommodating internal political activism, and they will be able to use these numbers to justify adopting Coinbase-style policies.
“in the next few quarters, I think CEOs will actually be better equipped to numerically point to why taking Brian's path is the value creating path for shareholders and for stakeholders, and the cost of getting distracted, quote unquote, can be really expensive if you if you are a for profit company.” View on YouTube
No clear, quantified industry-wide dataset shows CEOs specifically citing Disney/Netflix numbers to justify Coinbase-style mission-focus policies by mid-2023.
In the coming years, the US dollar and other major fiat currencies around the world will continue to experience significant inflation (enough that designing inflation-hedged 'flat coins' tied to CPI will be valuable).
“they're basically looking at the consumer price index, and they're trying to basically have flat purchasing power and assume that the dollar and various fiat currencies around the world are actually going to go through more inflation.” View on YouTube
As Google rolls out Apple-style privacy changes on Android over the next product cycles (starting in 2022), the effectiveness of online ads will further decline, driving customer acquisition costs higher for companies that rely heavily on paid digital acquisition, making their growth meaningfully more expensive going forward.
“it's really hard for these ads to be as effective as they used to be. And it's only going to get worse because Google has also said that they're going to implement a lot of the same versions of what Apple did inside of Android. So customer acquisition is going up. So if you look at then all the companies that have to live and die on Ckac, it's going to be an expensive, um, road.” View on YouTube
Google did roll out (with repeated delays) Privacy Sandbox changes reducing third-party tracking on Android, and digital ad targeting effectiveness/customer acquisition cost concerns persisted through 2022-2025, but the causal chain to specifically higher CAC industry-wide is not cleanly documented.
Over the next several years, as 7–9 major streaming competitors invest heavily in content, Netflix will no longer be able to dominate the streaming market or earn the outsized returns it historically enjoyed; instead, those returns will be spread across multiple services.
“all of those returns will now get spread across seven or 8 or 9 competitors. Which means that just by definition, mathematically, Netflix can't win the way that they used to.” View on YouTube
Netflix instead reasserted clear streaming dominance in subsequent years, growing subscribers and profits sharply via password-sharing crackdowns and an ad-supported tier, rather than seeing its returns diluted across many equal competitors.
Elon Musk will attend and speak at the upcoming All-In Summit event referenced in this episode (the 2022 All-In Summit).
“Oh, is that what it says on the website? Yeah, he's on the website now.” View on YouTube
Elon Musk did appear at the 2022 All-In Summit, a widely covered surprise appearance.