Sat, 17 Sep 2022 03:41:57 +0000
Figma’s annually recurring revenue (ARR) will reach between $1.5 billion and $2 billion within roughly two years after the end of 2023 (i.e., by the end of 2025 or very early 2026).
“and then you figure you know within say two years after that they're going to be, you know, it's somewhere between one and a half and 2 billion of IRR.” View on YouTube
Figma reported $1.056 billion in FY2025 revenue, below the predicted $1.5-2 billion range.
The proposed Adobe acquisition of Figma announced in September 2022 will ultimately receive regulatory approval and successfully close.
“If you ask me if I was a betting man, I think this thing is going to close.” View on YouTube
Adobe and Figma mutually terminated their merger agreement in December 2023 after determining there was no clear path to regulatory approval in the UK and EU; Adobe paid a $1 billion breakup fee.
The proposed Adobe–Figma acquisition deal announced in 2022 will successfully close (i.e., will not be blocked or abandoned).
“I think it closes.” View on YouTube
The Adobe-Figma deal was abandoned in December 2023 rather than closing.
The U.S. Supreme Court will not overturn nationwide legal recognition of same‑sex marriage (i.e., Obergefell v. Hodges will not be reversed) in the foreseeable future following the 2022 Dobbs decision.
“I don't think gay marriage is at any risk of being overturned by the Supreme Court. Remember, it was Gorsuch who wrote that opinion.” View on YouTube
The Supreme Court has not overturned Obergefell v. Hodges, and Congress additionally passed the Respect for Marriage Act in December 2022 providing federal statutory protection for same-sex marriage.
The global economy is heading into a recession beginning around late 2022, validating the FedEx CEO’s warning of a forthcoming global recession.
“I think what's going on here is that whatever the issues at Fedex, and no matter how overstated these warnings may have been, I think they're directionally correct. He's saying that the world is headed for a global recession, and directionally, he appears to be right.” View on YouTube
No official global recession was recorded beginning in late 2022; the global economy slowed but avoided a formally recognized recession.
Due to the Ukraine war’s impact on fertilizer availability, pricing, and related disruptions, an additional tens of millions to as many as 300–400 million people globally will experience starvation (defined as under 1,200 calories per day on average for a year) over the coming years relative to the pre‑crisis baseline.
“Yeah. Look I don't know how many. Look there's some number of people, some number of tens of millions, maybe hundreds of millions of people who are going to starve between here and there that otherwise weren't going to be starving... that's an incremental 300, 400 million people that didn't need to starve. And that's a condition we're now going to be facing.” View on YouTube
No verified data shows an additional 300-400 million people facing starvation due to the Ukraine war's fertilizer disruption at the scale predicted; global famine metrics did not show an increase of that magnitude.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise short‑term interest rates to roughly 4.5–5.0% and keep them elevated longer than market participants expect, causing a noticeable slowdown or recessionary impact in 2023, but by 2024–2025 the economic impact from these high rates will be significantly reduced and no longer “that great.”
“I think that rates are going to go somewhere between four and a half to 5%. I think Stan Druckenmiller is right... So rates are going to go higher than people expect. It'll stay around longer than people want. This will have an impact to the economy. Uh, that that impact in 2024 2025 will not be that great.” View on YouTube
The Fed raised rates to a peak of 5.25-5.5% (close to the predicted 4.5-5% range) and kept them elevated through 2023, with the economic drag notably easing by 2024-2025 as growth continued and recession was avoided.
The Russia–Ukraine war, as of September 2022, will continue for a long duration (at least many more months, and likely years), rather than ending quickly through collapse of Russian forces or a near‑term negotiated settlement.
“So until you see that happening, those guys have a long way to go. And I think that this thing is going to drag on for a really long time.” View on YouTube
The Russia-Ukraine war continued for years beyond September 2022 rather than resolving quickly.
Financial markets will remain highly volatile and “choppy” for a prolonged period following September 2022, lasting significantly longer than most investors are then expecting (on the order of at least another year).
“So this is going to go on for as long. Uh, for much longer than people think. So, uh, I would just prepare for this inevitable outcome and just kind of, you know, manage.” View on YouTube
Financial markets remained highly volatile well into and beyond 2023, consistent with the prediction of prolonged choppiness.