Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks

Financial markets are correctly pricing in an overwhelming likelihood that Donald Trump wins the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, and if he wins by a sizable margin then over the following months gold prices, Bitcoin prices, and major equity indices will rise further while long‑term U.S. interest rates (e.g., 10‑year Treasury yields) move higher.

“I think that the short term takeaway that I have just looking at all of this data is that in the economic distribution of outcomes, this is now tilted overwhelmingly to a Trump win… And if Trump wins, which it looks like he's increasingly going to do, and if he wins by the margins that it looks like it's going to do, you're going to see a lot of these things exacerbate. Gold's going to go up more probably Bitcoin will probably go up. The short term economic upside for the economy will probably get reflected in higher equity prices, but it'll also push out long term rates.” View on YouTube

If Trump wins the November 2024 U.S. presidential election and his economic program is implemented, U.S. inflation will increase in the medium term (roughly 1–3 years after inauguration), and both Bitcoin and gold will appreciate as hedges against that inflation.

“in the medium term inflation goes up. And so you want to hedge right… So Bitcoin and gold I think will trade that way.” View on YouTube

Over the next U.S. presidential term (the 4‑year administration beginning January 2025), total additional federal spending/deficits will be on the order of roughly $8–10 trillion regardless of whether the Democrat or Republican candidate wins.

“Most of the reports out say they're going to spend another 10 trillion in the next administration, independent of who you vote for… And I think one party will do a tax cut and spend eight, nine, 10 trillion. The other party will spend 10 trillion and maybe raise taxes a little bit. It's going to net net into the same place.” View on YouTube

Over the next 4–10 years (covering the next one to two U.S. presidential administrations starting in 2025), the U.S. will experience a severe contraction in white‑collar employment, with a large reduction in the number of white‑collar jobs relative to recent years.

“And then I think what we'll see on top of that is what I think could be cataclysmic contraction in white collar employment in the United States over the next 4 to 10 years, next to administrations.” View on YouTube

Significant federal fiscal austerity measures (meaning meaningful cuts or constraints on U.S. government spending to address debt and deficits) will be implemented not in the 2025–2029 administration but in the subsequent administration (approximately 2029–2033).

“it probably won't come in this next administration, but certainly the one after that is going to have to do some belt tightening. And we're going to have to address this issue because spending…” View on YouTube

Over the next 5–10 years, U.S. federal debt will increase by on the order of an additional $20 trillion and large corporations will maintain lean headcounts with high efficiency and profitability; as a result, holders of equities and real estate will see very strong financial performance while roughly 40–50% of Americans without significant asset ownership will experience worsening financial stress.

“So the two pieces here that we haven't seen before is what happens when you put another, I don't know, $20 trillion of debt into the US economy. And what happens when companies, the big ones, stop hiring and they just become wildly efficient and become wildly profitable, and this will be a renters rentiers, you know, story where people who have equities and people who own property are going to do fabulous over the next 5 to 10 years, and then the 40%, 50% of people who don't are going to really be feeling a pinch.” View on YouTube

At some point in the coming years, the U.S. Federal Reserve will be forced to significantly increase its purchases of U.S. Treasury securities (effectively monetizing federal debt by creating new money) because external and private buyers will be insufficient to absorb the required Treasury issuance.

“I think it is inevitable that the Federal Reserve in the United States is going to need to buy the debt. They're going to need to monetize the debt, which means printing money. There is no one else to buy the debt.” View on YouTube

Over the long term (on the order of the next 50–100 years), Bitcoin will emerge as the dominant global inflation‑hedging asset, displacing gold, such that gold’s role as a primary rational economic insurance policy against inflation structurally declines from here.

“at the beginning of the year, I said the breakout asset Was going to be Bitcoin. I think it looks like it's going to be the resounding inflation hedge asset for the next 50 or 100 years. So that die has been cast. I think you're seeing the last vestiges of people using gold as a rational economic insurance policy. But I think the future is specifically Bitcoin on that dimension.” View on YouTube

If Kamala Harris were to win the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, then within the following 1–2 months many of the asset price trends observed in the prior 1.5 months (rising long‑term yields, strong dollar, moves into gold/Bitcoin/equities that were driven by expectations of a Trump win) would largely reverse.

“in my scenarios, what happens if Kamala Harris wins? What the markets do. And I actually think it would reverse a lot of these trends over, like the last month and a half.” View on YouTube

In an upcoming inflationary environment characterized by rising commodity prices, companies whose revenues and profits are directly linked to commodity prices (e.g., mining firms and commodity trading businesses) will, over that cycle, outperform businesses that are not commodity‑linked.

“there are other commodities out there that are much more fungible and used in production cycles… and commodity linked businesses… will outperform other businesses… So anyway, I think that Paul Tudor Jones, because if you own a commodity, it's not a productive asset… But if you own a business that's making a profit and it just seems like it's easier to own bitcoin” View on YouTube

Given the current extreme level of the Buffett Indicator, at some point in the foreseeable future U.S. equities will undergo a material correction such that broad equity valuations become lower than they are now before they can move substantially higher again.

“we've actually set an absolute new high in this thing, which again, to the extent that you believe in indicators like this, what kind of tell you that at some point here, equities are probably going to be cheaper before they're going to get more expensive.” View on YouTube

Over the next decade, the fair or market‑clearing yield on U.S. government debt (such as the 10‑year Treasury) is likely to rise significantly above 4%, and could end up in the 6–8% range for a sustained period.

“is it reasonable that the market clearing price for government issued debt over the next decade is 4%? I mean, my gosh, it could easily be 6%. It could easily be 7 or 8%.” View on YouTube

David Sacks predicts that Donald Trump will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“All the data is basically pointing one direction, which is a Trump victory.” View on YouTube

If pre‑election polling showing Trump leading the national popular vote proves accurate, the 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome will be an Electoral College landslide in Trump’s favor (i.e., he will win by a large electoral margin rather than narrowly).

“So if Trump is winning the popular vote, then it's a landslide.” View on YouTube

Jason Calacanis predicts that in the final 1–2 weeks before the November 2024 U.S. election, there will be a substantial amount of fake news, including possible deepfake media, circulating on social media.

“I think there's going to be a lot of fake news, maybe even deepfakes that come out, you know, in the last week or two.” View on YouTube

David Sacks predicts that in the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump will win by a clear margin ("solid victory" / "pretty handily"), rather than in a very close contest.

“I'm actually pretty optimistic because I actually don't think it's going to be that close. I mean, right now it's looking like maybe landslide is too strong a word, but a solid victory for Trump. That's what the polls are showing. That's what the prediction markets are showing. That's what the early voting is showing. And if you look at all the other data points right now, it's showing Trump winning pretty handily.” View on YouTube

Chamath Palihapitiya predicts that, going forward, as GLP-1 weight‑loss drug adoption increases across the U.S. (particularly among Starbucks customers), Starbucks will experience a continuing decline in same‑store sales, with GLP‑1 adoption and Starbucks same‑store sales moving in opposite directions over time.

“And this in a nutshell, is not something that Starbucks can fix with their current product mix. And so I think that they're fighting into a headwind. And these other companies are deeply incentivized to get American taste buds to be different. And so, Jason, the things that you talked about are exactly the things that I think start to fall off the menu or just don't sell as much, because whatever the population of Americans are that are on GLP one, let's say it's single digits. The real question is what percentage of Starbucks customers are on these things? And I think it's probably much more than single digits. And this is why I think you see the continuous decline in same store sales. And I think if you start to graph the adoption of GLP one pervasively in America to the drop in same store sales, I think as GLP one adoption goes up. Same store sales will continue to go down.” View on YouTube