Within approximately 100 years from 2025, most everyday food will be produced and delivered by machines rather than cooked by people, with quality at least as good as today’s restaurants, delivered very conveniently, and at a cost at or below the cost of buying ingredients at a grocery store.
“Yeah. I mean, the high level for it, the way to think about it is it's it's about the future of food. What is the future of food look like? You go, well, in 100 years, we'll start way out there. In 100 years, you're going to have very high quality food, very low cost. That's incredibly convenient. And they're going to be machines that make it. They're going to be machines that get it to you, and it's going to be exactly to your dietary preferences, your food preferences, etc. and it just comes to you and it's so inexpensive that it approaches or has surpassed the cost of going to the grocery store.”
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Explanation
This is a roughly 100-year prediction about food automation that cannot be evaluated now.
Over the long term (multi‑decade horizon), cooking by hand will become primarily a hobby activity rather than a routine necessity for providing daily meals.
“Look, uh, people will cook in the future as a hobby.”
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Explanation
This is a multi-decade prediction about the long-term future of cooking that cannot be evaluated now.
By April 2025, CloudKitchens will have at least five external restaurant customers live and using its Bowl Builder automation machine in production operations.
“We created test brands that were like those things and built the machine at the same time as we were building an actual restaurant, and we built that restaurant to prove that the machine works. Then we have our customers now touring, checking it out. We're rolling out with five customers in April that are using the machine”
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Explanation
There is not enough specific public data to confirm whether CloudKitchens had exactly five external customers live by April 2025.
Over the next several years, frontier large language models as proprietary assets will rapidly lose differentiated economic value, with most model capabilities becoming available via open‑source models and commoditized offerings rather than through a few highly valuable closed models.
“Gavin Baker came on this podcast and said it's the fastest deprecating asset in the world, was a large language model. He's been proven right. They're not worth anything. They're all going to be open source. They're all going to be commoditized.”
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Explanation
Open-source and commoditized models have proliferated, but frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic have continued to command enormous valuations ($852 billion and tens of billions respectively), showing proprietary models still retain substantial differentiated value.
As the unit cost of AI inference and training declines over the coming years, total AI usage and aggregate spending on AI compute and services will increase (i.e., demand for AI will be price‑elastic, leading to higher overall revenue despite lower per‑unit prices).
“When AI gets cheap, you know what's going to happen, guys, there's going to be a lot more AI, right? I don't think I think the price elasticity on this one is actually positive. So as the price goes down, the revenue usage everything's going to go up.”
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Explanation
As AI unit costs have fallen, total AI usage and aggregate spending have grown dramatically, consistent with the predicted price-elastic demand pattern.
During Donald Trump’s second term (roughly 2025–2029), the Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”) will increase identified/claimed federal savings from about $1 billion per day to approximately $3 billion per day and sustain that level long enough that the implied per‑family benefit would total roughly $60,000 for a family of five over the full term.
“Doge is claiming on the interwebs to be saving American taxpayers around $1 billion a day... And they claim they can triple this. And so for a family of five, that'd be about, what, $15,000 a year, maybe $60,000 during Trump's second term.”
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Explanation
DOGE's claimed savings figures were widely disputed and fell well short of the predicted $3 billion/day sustained pace; Musk departed his DOGE role in mid-2025 amid controversy over the program's actual impact.
Within the next few months from this January 31, 2025 episode (i.e., by roughly April–May 2025), there will be an aggressive wave of attempted federal spending cuts initiated by the DOGE/Trump administration, followed by significant court challenges that determine which cuts require new legislation, after which the administration will begin pushing those cuts through Congress.
“I think we should expect a big whirlwind of cutting in the next couple of months, or an attempt to the courts will adjudicate what needs to be legislated, and then they're going to go to Congress and start to try and get some of these cuts in.”
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Explanation
The following months saw an aggressive wave of attempted DOGE/administration spending cuts, extensive court challenges over which cuts required legislation, and subsequent efforts to push cuts through Congress, broadly matching this prediction.
By the time DOGE’s program of forensic analysis and cuts is fully implemented (i.e., by the end of Trump’s second term), the total annualized federal spending reduction or waste eliminated identified by DOGE will exceed $2 trillion per year.
“And I think when you start to uncover through forensic analysis where these dollars are going and how it's spent, that's probably how you're going to close the gap from a trillion to. And I suspect, to be honest, it could be more than $2 trillion. When it's all said and done, that is an enormous amount of waste and it's unproductive.”
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Explanation
This prediction concerns cumulative savings by the end of Trump's second term (2029), a timeframe not yet reached; current disputed DOGE savings figures are well short of $2 trillion annualized.
The yield on the 30‑year U.S. Treasury bond, which was about 4.77% on January 31, 2025, will rise to approximately 5.5% before it declines materially, implying a further increase of roughly 70–80 basis points in the near term.
“I got a text from someone who is pretty senior in capital markets thinks this is going to go to 5.5% before it goes down. So they think that there's going to be a little bit more of a turbulent run ahead.”
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Explanation
The 30-year Treasury yield rose notably through 2025 and topped 5% on multiple occasions, but did not reach the predicted 5.5% level until briefly touching 5.33% in August 2026, later than predicted.