Fri, 29 Dec 2023 17:00:00 +0000
Donald Trump will decisively win ("run away with") the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, with the Colorado Supreme Court ballot-removal decision helping to seal that outcome.
“I think that this move by the Colorado Supreme Court basically sealed the deal. I think he is going to run away with the Republican nomination.” View on YouTube
The DEI movement will continue to be seriously questioned and lose support among donors and prior supporters in the years following 2023.
“I think that that movement is going to take a big hit and took a big hit at the end of this year and will continue to, I think, be questioned by donors and supporters of the ideologies of that movement.” View on YouTube
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will attract an unusually large share of the vote by building a plurality among centrist and protest voters, exceeding the type of ceiling that existed for Ross Perot in 1992.
“Because the country is much more fragmented today. There's a lot more protest votes today. There's just a lot of reasons where RFK can garner a lot of support and build a plurality among centrists.” View on YouTube
If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. runs as an independent in 2024, his popular vote share will exceed Ross Perot’s 19% third‑party result from 1992 (i.e., RFK Jr. will get more than 19% of the national popular vote).
“What do we think he will get if he runs as an independent, just percentage wise? Ross Perot as a third party candidate, 19%, you think better than 19%.” View on YouTube
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent will surpass Ross Perot’s 19% popular vote share from 1992, due to greater voter fragmentation and protest sentiment.
“Because the country is much more fragmented today. There's a lot more protest votes today. There's just a lot of reasons where RFK can garner a lot of support and build a plurality among centrists. That wasn't possible when Perot was running, because when he ran, you have to you have to remember, like the country was in a very different place psychologically than it is right now.” View on YouTube
In a 2024 Biden-vs.-Trump general election, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent candidacy will draw more support from Joe Biden than from Donald Trump, hurting Biden more electorally.
“It hurts Biden the most.” View on YouTube
If a viable U.S. third party emerges (e.g., catalyzed by RFK Jr. or similar efforts), it will require a multi‑year period for independents to coalesce into a structured party with defined governance and platform.
“It will take, as these things always do, a number of years for a group of independents to coalesce around what that third party looks like and how it's going to be governed and so on.” View on YouTube
The No Labels third‑party effort will announce Joe Manchin as its presidential (or leading) candidate in the near term, likely in early 2024.
“They're probably going to announce Joe Manchin any day now.” View on YouTube
In 2024, U.S. equity markets will experience a "melt‑up" (strong upward move) up to the point of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut, after which there will likely be a significant market sell‑off.
“I think now what the setup is for 2024 is basically we will melt up. Up until the first cut, and then there'll probably be some real selling.” View on YouTube
The combination of the FTX collapse and the OpenAI board’s failed ouster of Sam Altman will effectively end ("put the nail in the coffin of") the effective altruism movement as a significant, credible force in tech and philanthropy over the coming years.
“I think the failure of that whole debacle will put the nail in the coffin of the EA movement.” View on YouTube
From 2024 onward, Ivy League universities overall will experience: (1) a continued, material decline in applications (the downward trend in applications will persist and deepen beyond the ~17% decline already reported for Harvard), (2) a decline in private contributions/donations to these institutions, (3) reductions in government funding or spending directed to these schools, and (4) at least one organized political or legal attempt to remove or challenge their nonprofit status.
“I think Harvard applications were down 17% already. I expect that trend across the Ivies to go way up. I expect contributions to go down. I expect governments to ratchet down their spending in those schools, and I expect some folks to try to take away their nonprofit status.” View on YouTube
The roughly $150 million civil judgment against Rudy Giuliani in the defamation case discussed will be reduced by a large percentage on appeal (i.e., the final enforceable amount after appeals will be substantially lower than the original award), with this reduction occurring in the near term following the December 2023 conversation.
“Yeah, these awards are curious and how large they are. They all get appealed though, and they all come down, so I'm sure that'll come down by some massive percentage in the near future.” View on YouTube