Vivek Ramaswamy will surpass Ron DeSantis in polls and become the clear #2 Republican presidential candidate within approximately 4–8 weeks of September 18, 2023 (i.e., by mid‑October to mid‑November 2023), based on New Hampshire and national primary polling averages.
“Vivek is about to pass DeSantis. He will be. I think if you look at the polling right now... He'll be the clear number two in about four between 4 and 8 weeks from now.”
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Explanation
Vivek Ramaswamy did not clearly surpass Ron DeSantis as the definitive #2 Republican candidate within the predicted window; DeSantis remained in solid second place through the fall of 2023 and finished second in the Iowa caucus in January 2024, while Vivek dropped out after a distant fourth-place finish.
Global IPO activity for full-year 2023 will total fewer than 1,200 IPOs, which will be lower than both 2022 and 2019 levels.
“If you look at the slide, this is from Ernst and Young showing the IPO activity by year. And this was through June 30th. So if you assume kind of a steady state, you probably are going to come in at a volume that's less than 22 and perhaps even less than going back all the way to 2019, with less than 1200 IPOs during the year, compared to the peak of 2400, which happened in 2021.”
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Explanation
Global IPO count for full-year 2023 came in around 1,260-1,340, below the roughly 1,400 in 2022 and well below the 2021 peak of about 2,400, consistent with the prediction of a sub-1,200-to-1,300-ish sluggish year.
Instacart will generate approximately $800 million in advertising revenue on an annualized basis for the year corresponding to the period in which the June 30, 2023 quarter occurs (i.e., full-year 2023).
“they think they can. You know, they're on track for 800 million in ad revenue.”
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Explanation
Instacart's actual full-year 2023 advertising revenue came in at approximately $940 million, notably higher than the roughly $800 million figure predicted here.
Klaviyo will reach roughly $1 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) during calendar year 2024.
“So you know, project that forward. They're probably going to be at a billion in RR next year.”
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Explanation
Klaviyo's 2024 revenue came in around $900 million rather than a full $1 billion in ARR, falling somewhat short of the predicted figure though in the same general ballpark.
Over the next 1–2 years following September 2023, the group of large-cap U.S. tech stocks often called the “Magnificent Seven” will materially outperform the broader universe of tech and growth stocks, which will largely trade sideways rather than recover their prior high valuations.
“So it's really good for The Magnificent Seven. I think it's really bad for everything else, and we're going to be in a holding pattern for a while.”
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Explanation
The Magnificent Seven mega-cap tech stocks did materially outperform the broader market through 2024, while much of the rest of the market lagged, consistent with this prediction, though the broader market did eventually broaden out somewhat by 2025.
Startup founders should assume that the current high-interest-rate, capital-scarce funding environment will persist until at least Q1 2026 and possibly until mid-2026, meaning they will need enough runway to operate without new financing until roughly mid-2026.
“I think that that was wrong. I think now you got to be Q1 of 26 and maybe even mid 26.”
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Explanation
The venture funding environment did remain challenging through 2024 and into 2025, but conditions began to meaningfully improve for AI-focused startups well before Q1 2026, with a resurgence in AI mega-rounds and a reopening IPO window by 2025.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will implement at least one interest-rate cut by sometime in the second half of 2024 (i.e., within roughly one year of September 2023).
“And I guess 74% chance by the fourth quarter, third, fourth quarter of next year, people think there will be a rate cut. So we're a year away from a rate cut.”
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Explanation
The Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut of the cycle in September 2024, within the predicted roughly one-year window.
Over the next several years following 2023, the total amount of limited-partner capital committed to venture funds, and thus the aggregate capital available to fund startups, will decline significantly compared with the 2020–2021 period.
“it's going to be less LP money going into venture, and there's going to be less capital available to fund startups in aggregate by a significant amount.”
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Explanation
Overall LP allocations to venture capital did decline from the 2021 peak through 2023-2024, but by 2024-2025 capital concentrated heavily into AI-focused mega-funds, so aggregate dollars did not decline as uniformly as implied; the picture is one of concentration rather than a clean broad decline.
The Tesla Model Y (specifically the long-range or comparable mainline configuration being discussed) will have a base purchase price of approximately $40,000 (before taxes and incentives) within three years of September 2023, i.e., by September 2026.
“The best car. And, yeah, that'll be a $40,000 car in the next three years.”
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Explanation
As of 2026, the Tesla Model Y's base price remains above $40,000 rather than having dropped to that level; Tesla has instead pursued a separate cheaper 'Model Y Standard'/lower-cost model strategy rather than cutting the mainline Model Y itself to $40,000.
Within the next couple of years following 2023 (by roughly the end of 2025), at least some therapies based on the described liver-targeted glycosylated-antigen modality for autoimmune disease will show clinical success, gain traction, and advance to market (e.g., into late-stage clinical development or commercial availability) for specific autoimmune indications.
“Folks will take this paper and try and start to develop very specific therapeutics for very specific autoimmune conditions using this approach. And hopefully over the next couple of years, we see some of these things have success, gain traction and go to market.”
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Explanation
Liver-targeted glycosylated-antigen tolerization therapeutics for autoimmune disease remain in relatively early-stage development as of 2026, without a clear instance of full market success yet within the predicted window, though research continues.