E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more

As a result of Mitch McConnell’s unequivocal statement that Trump provoked the Capitol rioters, enough Republican senators will break ranks that Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial in the Senate (beginning in late January 2021) has a real chance to result in conviction, rather than acquittal.

“I think Mitch McConnell set the stage to have Donald Trump impeached. And the reason I think that is this was the first time he was completely unequivocal, which is that Donald Trump provoked all these folks. And I think what it allows the Republican Party to do is to get together under closed doors, you know, behind closed doors. Circle the wagons and say it's either him or us. We choose right now. And I think what's going to happen, if I had to guess, is that that allows a lot of people to break ranks and support the impeachment in the Senate. That's going to start on Monday. Um, and I think there's a real chance now that, that this impeachment goes through and he gets convicted.” View on YouTube

If Republican leaders repudiate Trump and he responds by creating a new Patriot Party that draws roughly 20 million supporters away from the GOP, then over the subsequent 2–3 years (2021–2024) the Republican Party will be forced to move left to regain balance, and the Democratic Party will in turn move further left, leading to a significantly more polarized American political landscape.

“if Trump does actually if they do actually kick Trump out of the party and he does set up a fringe party, you will likely see the Democrats move further left, creating a much more, um, kind of conflicting story for some of the centrists than what they're telling today of what's going to happen in the future. And that's a very different America in the next 2 to 3 years. That could be created if they took that risk.” View on YouTube

If Donald Trump creates a new third party (e.g., the suggested Patriot Party) that substantially splits the right-of-center vote, the Republican Party will effectively lose every major election (at least at the national level) for as long as Trump remains a significant political force.

“Oh, it would fracture the Republican Party. It would be, um, I guess the best historical analog would be when Teddy Roosevelt left the party to form the Bull Moose Party, he actually fractured the Republican Party. And that allowed, I think, Woodrow Wilson to win the presidency, beating Taft. Um, yeah. I mean, the Republicans would basically lose every election, um, from now until Trump is no longer a force in American politics. If he created, I guess.” View on YouTube

Based on market signals (e.g., valuation changes correlated with political flashpoints), large U.S. tech platforms (e.g., Facebook, Google, etc.) will, in the coming years, face such heavy regulation that they will no longer operate as normal profit-maximizing private companies in their current form.

“What you'll see is at least capitalism is voting, that these companies will not be allowed to be companies much longer.” View on YouTube

Over the medium term (within several years of 2021), major U.S. big tech platforms will be regulated to the point that they effectively function as quasi-governmental utilities or quasi-nonprofits operating largely on behalf of national governments rather than as fully independent commercial enterprises.

“It's going to be a quasi governmental organization. Exactly that the level of regulation at a government. But government level is going to be so onerous as to make these companies, quasi non-profits that work on behalf of countries.” View on YouTube

At some point in the future (implied within the coming years), major big tech platforms will be regulated in a manner similar to public utilities in the United States.

“Yeah, they're going to become utilities, right? They're getting they're going to get regulated like utilities at some point.” View on YouTube

Under the Biden administration, the U.S. government will ultimately impose no meaningful restrictions or bans on TikTok’s operation in the United States; the Trump-era TikTok sanctions effort will effectively be abandoned.

“Yeah, I think the sad reality is that the whole TikTok thing is going to get swept under the rug. I think there'll be no restrictions on TikTok.” View on YouTube

Between roughly 2021 and 2041, the United States will significantly re-emerge economically, driven by innovation in climate change technologies, agriculture, biotechnology, and technology, generating on the order of $20–30 trillion of GDP per year over that 10–20 year period, for a cumulative additional GDP on the order of $300–500 trillion.

“This problem has to get fixed because I think in the next ten, I think. I think in the next ten and 20 years, the United States is gonna fucking re-emerge like a phoenix. And the reason, the reason is gonna be because of innovation around climate change and agriculture and biotechnology and technology. These four areas are going to recast GDP. But what that also means is that if we're going to create, you know, 20 or $30 trillion a year for the next ten and 20 years, 300, 500 trillion, how the fuck do we make sure that more than 18 people participate?” View on YouTube

The recall petition against California Governor Gavin Newsom will successfully qualify (reach enough verified signatures) and trigger a recall election in 2021.

“So the recall is well on its way. They need to get 1.5 million signatures. We're at 1.1 or 1.2, but we actually really need two because there's some verification process that goes on. So in all likelihood we will see, Gavin Newsom recalled. We agree on that.” View on YouTube

Despite possible declines in signature verification rates to as low as 65–75%, the Gavin Newsom recall campaign will still collect enough valid signatures to meet the required threshold by the March 17, 2021 deadline.

“even if the verification rate drops to 75 or 65%, you're still on track at this rate to hit the recall target by March 17th, which is the deadline. And so it appears highly likely they're going to get there. Am I right on all that?” View on YouTube

The Gavin Newsom recall petition will obtain enough certified signatures to qualify, and the resulting recall election will be scheduled roughly 4–5 months after certification, likely around July 2021.

“I think they will get there. I think they'll get there and then there and then the recall election would take place about 4 to 5 months after, uh, after that, there's a couple of months where it moves through the finance committee. The recall election has to be budgeted. And then, um, Newsom would have the opportunity to set a date within, I think, 60 to 80 days, roughly. So I think we're looking at July for a recall election” View on YouTube